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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #15,981
  • Jun 6, 2010 10:15am Jun 6, 2010 10:15am
OK, It seems like I might be being 'bullied' in this thread. I'm asking constructive questions and have read the first 200 pages... so I think I deserve some courtesy.
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #15,982
  • Jun 6, 2010 10:15am Jun 6, 2010 10:15am
Leo,
I think the HotAirBalloon Man story doesn't finger point anybody in specific. But it does make a vivid description about the thread Lurkers.
If you are not a HAB, nevermind my laughter. Keep your head high and move on studying whatever important for you.
  • #15,983
  • Jun 6, 2010 10:45am Jun 6, 2010 10:45am
Quoting Leonlorenzo
OK, I've just re-skimmed through my notes:

I'm taking it we use the most simple definition of trend, HH+HL or LL+LH. Ideally we are looking to trade the 5m time frame trend which is in line with a higher TF trend... this enables safer rescues.

Am I correct so far?
Yes

Quote
Three Kingdoms = Wait for the majors to finish any retraces before entering a position. E.G. We are looking to trade EU short. We wait for GU to finish any upswing it may be making, and for UJ to finish any downswing it may be making.
Maybe. Not always.

Quote
The most conservative rescue in which one can turn a loser around is 1,1,2,3,5,8 (Fibanosey).
Nope. Too aggresive. I will work and then tsunami and you will be dead.

Quote
It's advised that attacks be less aggressive than rescues.
Yes

Quote
Depending on daily(?) volatility one should use different MM. Low Volatility = aggressive MM.
Yes

But there is much more, that must be found by doing...

My comments.
But not be rigid.
If the tune changes,
we turn.
Similar to an airplane fighter,
that turns as needed.

Good luck
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #15,984
  • Jun 6, 2010 10:52am Jun 6, 2010 10:52am
Quoting luSan
Nope. Too aggresive. I will work and then tsunami and you will be dead.
But FTI says that If one cannot make a profit a very large % of the time then they will not come out ahead. Anything less than 1,1,2,3etc will mean that losses will be frequent/losses will be impossible to rescue.
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #15,985
  • Jun 6, 2010 10:57am Jun 6, 2010 10:57am
Quoting Leonlorenzo
But FTI says that If one cannot make a profit a very large % of the time then they will not come out ahead. Anything less than 1,1,2,3etc will mean that losses will be frequent/losses will be impossible to rescue.
Search where his describde his training approach....Juniors, seniors, etc..we are juniors....we have not right to trade at high skews...also your need to understand the "working as ants concept" and the importance of position size...search it.
Back to my cave
Good luck
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #15,986
  • Edited 11:20am Jun 6, 2010 11:08am | Edited 11:20am
Quoting luSan
also your need to understand the "working as ants concept"
Exactly... little and often. For one to win often, rescues need to be effective leaving one with a large % of positive trades. Therefore, a lower sequence than Fibo will make it harder to recover losses... so 'junior' traders are advised to trade in a way which means they cannot be profitable?

Also, when does one know that a rescue has failed? Obviously they will be heavily in the minus... but is there any technical way to come to the conclusion "It's time to cut my loses now"?

This isn't directed specifically to you Lusan, I understand you're busy.
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #15,987
  • Jun 6, 2010 11:13am Jun 6, 2010 11:13am
Quoting Leonlorenzo
Exactly... little and often. For one to win often, rescues need to be effective leaving one with a large % of positive trades.
Ok.
..No more.
Now we practice.
I go to do some home repair.
...rushing to home depot
CU
Empty as water and soft as a facing wind mountain
  • #15,988
  • Jun 6, 2010 12:33pm Jun 6, 2010 12:33pm
Quoting Leonlorenzo
Exactly... little and often. For one to win often, rescues need to be effective leaving one with a large % of positive trades. Therefore, a lower sequence than Fibo will make it harder to recover losses... so 'junior' traders are advised to trade in a way which means they cannot be profitable?

Also, when does one know that a rescue has failed? Obviously they will be heavily in the minus... but is there any technical way to come to the conclusion "It's time to cut my loses now"?

This isn't directed specifically to you Lusan, I understand you're...
Hey Leon

I am only been doing this for half a year, but this post really helped me understand turning or staying with the trade.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2995

Notice he said "sudden change of impulse".

Also going back to Jest's pictures.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=15806

If you look at Jest's chart, you will notice the rescue would be done on the first pullback of the impulse.

When the pullback fails, e.g. The trend continues against trade. You will have the choice of

1.) Staying and guard your love for Marie until she comes back to you.
2.) Flip your love for another women. (Also given that there are only two women in the world, Miss Marie bear, and Miss xx bull.)

I think for FTI, he HAD to stay with Marie. The size of his inventory at the bank made him married to her already. Divorce will cost him a fortune! Also, they have millions of tons of love backed up for Marie. Surely they can get her back?

But as small traders, with the lack of love, we can only go so far with a women. IMO, I strongly suggest to change your gf when she shows signs of weakness and faith. Otherwise, get some more love as reserves to get married.

I hope it helps.
Life is a school for the soul
  • #15,989
  • Jun 6, 2010 12:37pm Jun 6, 2010 12:37pm
Quoting Leonlorenzo
Exactly... little and often. For one to win often, rescues need to be effective leaving one with a large % of positive trades. Therefore, a lower sequence than Fibo will make it harder to recover losses... so 'junior' traders are advised to trade in a way which means they cannot be profitable?

Also, when does one know that a rescue has failed? Obviously they will be heavily in the minus... but is there any technical way to come to the conclusion "It's time to cut my loses now"?

This isn't directed specifically to you Lusan, I understand you're...
For rescue Starting out i would do 1,3,(8) attack 1,1,2,3.

Rescues are for wrongly time trades. If you against the trend i would bite the bullet. Also i wait 7 5min candles before rescuing.
  • #15,990
  • Jun 6, 2010 1:00pm Jun 6, 2010 1:00pm
Quoting M-H Trader
For rescue Starting out i would do 1,3,(8) attack 1,1,2,3.

Rescues are for wrongly time trades. If you against the trend i would bite the bullet. Also i wait 7 5min candles before rescuing.
Considering we are trading as FTI does, on the 5min charts, using higher ones for a bias... If we are against which trend (5m, 1h, 1d) should we bite the bullet? How would we decide to start a rescue? What kind of sign would we want to see from the 5m chart?

This leads to another question... If we are using a higher TF to find a/the trend, then I assume we would be OK with the 5m trend changing against us. So would we start a rescue when we can see the 5min trend has changed back to the direction of our initial position?

@the poster who has appearing positions - I'll get back on to your post later. There's some stuff to think about in there.

PS. @ M-H trader: Isn't 1,3,8 more aggressive than the 1,1,2,3 etc sequence I was told is too aggressive for a junior?
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #15,991
  • Jun 6, 2010 1:10pm Jun 6, 2010 1:10pm
Quoting auxesis
A man in a hot air balloon realized he was lost.
He reduced his altitude and saw a man below.
"Excuse me, but can you help me?
I promised a friend I would meet him an hour ago but
I don't know where I am," he said.

The man below replied: "You are in a hot air balloon
hovering approximately 30 ft above the ground.
You are between 40 and 41 degrees North latitude and
between 56 and 57 degrees West longitude."

To which the balloonist replied:
"You must be a TAF member." To which the man on the ground said:
"I am, but how did you...
  • #15,992
  • Jun 6, 2010 1:23pm Jun 6, 2010 1:23pm
Hi ALL,
LAST WARNING.

There are those that can be helped.
Then there is the vast numbers that cannot.
For those that can be helped. Give them a little assistance to carry them thru the barrier. For those that cannot, helping them will just accelerate their demise.
Some have no aptitude for trading, they cannot be helped,WHATEVER you try.

Some have the aptitude and really just need a nudge to get them on their flight. For those that are elephants, helping them off the ledge, will just help them plummet to their deaths. Spare yourself the burden and anguish. There is nothing anyone can do for them, its their nature.

The best is to leave them to their own devices and their self deception.

regards
  • #15,993
  • Jun 6, 2010 1:24pm Jun 6, 2010 1:24pm
leon.

in real time...

impulse then a.b.c

scout at ab
if c trades lower than a then first rescue/checker is invoked in c.d
if e trades lower than c then you are effectively trading against the trend

you can choose to flip or continue to rescue which will force you to draw back into a longer term chart to find new larger foot-prints
btw whatever your sizing....i dont really care, its up to you and your liking lah
  • #15,994
  • Jun 6, 2010 1:26pm Jun 6, 2010 1:26pm
Quoting Leonlorenzo
Considering we are trading as FTI does, on the 5min charts, using higher ones for a bias... If we are against which trend (5m, 1h, 1d) should we bite the bullet? How would we decide to start a rescue? What kind of sign would we want to see from the 5m chart?

This leads to another question... If we are using a higher TF to find a/the trend, then I assume we would be OK with the 5m trend changing against us. So would we start a rescue when we can see the 5min trend has changed back to the direction of our initial position?...
My dear León Lorenzo,

Your post show me that you didn't read or didn't understand the first 200 pages.

Read it, or read it again.

And before you ask again something about the thread, is better for you
that you trade with real money at least 1 year.
And with money, I mean money, not peanuts.

Kind regards,

Textor
  • #15,995
  • Jun 6, 2010 1:26pm Jun 6, 2010 1:26pm
Quoting fti
Hi ALL,
LAST WARNING.

There are those that can be helped.
Then there is the vast numbers that cannot.
For those that can be helped. Give them a little assistance to carry them thru the barrier. For those that cannot, helping them will just accelerate their demise.
Some have no aptitude for trading, they cannot be helped,WHATEVER you try.

Some have the aptitude and really just need a nudge to get them on their flight. For those that are elephants, helping them off the ledge, will just help them plummet to their deaths. Spare yourself the burden...
Hi FTI,

I agree completely, thanks.

Everyone's heard the man... Forget about the Elephants, and help me to master this method.

Cheers all,

Regards, Leon
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #15,996
  • Jun 6, 2010 1:28pm Jun 6, 2010 1:28pm
Quoting jest1081
leon.

in real time...

impulse then a.b.c

scout at ab
if c trades lower than a then first rescue/checker is invoked in c.d
if e trades lower than c then you are effectively trading against the trend

you can choose to flip or continue to rescue which will force you to draw back into a longer term chart to find new larger foot-prints

so you make a total of 2 entries before you choose to continue a losing fight or flip
Do not become rigid.

regards
  • #15,997
  • Jun 6, 2010 1:33pm Jun 6, 2010 1:33pm
Quoting Leonlorenzo
Hi FTI,

I agree completely, thanks.

Everyone's heard the man... Forget about the Elephants, and help me to master this method.

Cheers all,

Regards, Leon
If you still not able to understand what i wrote you earlier about your arrogance and ego. Then let me make it crystal clear to you.
YOUR ARROGANCE WILL KILL YOU IN THE MARKETS. kapish?

No one, not even whats written here can help you. There is nothing here that will be of any value to you.
  • #15,998
  • Jun 6, 2010 1:35pm Jun 6, 2010 1:35pm
Quoting fti
Do not become rigid.

regards
noted fti. but basically i was referring back to the early studies used for training.

nevertheless volitility matters most in all situations, the waves dont always conform to abcde, its mostly used as a mind map,

boss correct me if im wrong. cheers


hi leon.
hope its understood. thanks.
  • #15,999
  • Jun 6, 2010 1:37pm Jun 6, 2010 1:37pm
*Deleted because my image was destroyed and the post didn't make sense as a result.
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #16,000
  • Jun 6, 2010 1:38pm Jun 6, 2010 1:38pm
I have been reading the posts from today and recommend that leon re-read the first 200 pages. The questions seem out of sequence to me. If you do not know how to trend, or how to think about trends on different time compressions, I am not sure why you are thinking about rescue, which to my little brain is a more advanced trading technique. In addition, it is probably a good idea to talk about PA at some point, too, before you get into rescue or snowballing. Just my thoughts from the sideline, since I am not acting as teacher/leader here, but rather a student/participant.
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