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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #65,581
  • Jun 5, 2010 11:50pm Jun 5, 2010 11:50pm
Quoting novice198
The Trade Failed with strong upward thrust on Friday. SL at 1.0495 was triggered for a loss of 1.3%. I think Weekly and Monthly pivots may not mean much instead we should use Price flip zones. Went thru the videos of PeterFM and found same very informative. Now I have marked my charts accordingly and will look for setup around those areas of interest.

One question for the seniors, though not related to this trade, should we keep our Trade posn open during the weekend. I have always been told and of late I have seen also that the weekend...

Continuation bars can be risky. That's why we like Ouside Bars at swings Highs/Lows. As KissFan mentioned at the time.

Quoting KissFan
The daily BEOB is tempting but Id be a seller of UCAD if this bar were at a swing high.
K.I.S.S.
Floors pivots don't make sense to me in the forex market. Floor pivots are mathamatical equation off the OHLC but the forex market really doesn't have an Open or Close. Where in the stocks and futures markets there is an acutually Open and Close, so that does make sense.

Flips zones (PPZ levels) are pretty consistent no matter what broker or what the "Open or Close" is in the forex market. So you can see why James16 emphasizes on the PPZ levels. If Jim thought floor pivots played an important role believe he would mention them more in his posts and charts.

Keeping a trade open over the weekend really depends on how much cushsion you have in that trade. Like you said, a move of 200 pips could happen or the weekend or a global event could happen etc. So if i was long the Cad at 1.000 I would hold it over the weekend. lol
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #65,582
  • Jun 5, 2010 11:52pm Jun 5, 2010 11:52pm
Quoting novice198
The Trade Failed with strong upward thrust on Friday. SL at 1.0495 was triggered for a loss of 1.3%. I think Weekly and Monthly pivots may not mean much instead we should use Price flip zones. Went thru the videos of PeterFM and found same very informative. Now I have marked my charts accordingly and will look for setup around those areas of interest.

One question for the seniors, though not related to this trade, should we keep our Trade posn open during the weekend. I have always been told and of late I have seen also that the weekend gaps...
The Trade Failed with strong upward thrust on Friday. SL at 1.0495 was triggered for a loss of 1.3%. I think Weekly and Monthly pivots may not mean much instead we should use Price flip zones. Went thru the videos of PeterFM and found same very informative. Now I have marked my charts accordingly and will look for setup around those areas of interest.

Exactly! Anything other than price is secondary for us in sanctioning a trigger on the trade setup. MAs, Fibs, Pivot points all help us to confirm the setup but they should never be taken for granted when alone.

One question for the seniors, though not related to this trade, should we keep our Trade posn open during the weekend. I have always been told and of late I have seen also that the weekend gaps can be as large as 200 pips, so would it be better to close on Friday noon EST and then open your position again on Monday as the gap risk is mitigated at the cost of the spread.

For me it'll have to do with answering lot's of questions. Is the trade already in the green? If yes is it moving well, or just "hanging about"? Is it on the intra day or a higher time frame such as daily? Is the setup over all a very high probability one, or just a regular trade?

Depending on the answers to these questions I may or may not hold the trade for the weekend.

Oh and pending orders if not taken are always pulled off before the weekend in my book.

Also last Friday being NFP announcement day should we enter a fresh trade on NFP Friday ( all criteria for set up being in place) as big moves may take place on NFP announcement.

I see no problem with that, A good bar at a good location does not know what time or news it is. N.F.P for such trade setups can bring about lucrative momentum.

****----****

As for your trade setup in general, I feel Usd/Cad is caught up in some big moves lately, unfortunately they haven't been for a trending cause, they have whipped price from behind pushing it up and then from the front thrusting it down. Such times at best can be very capricious and unpredictable. (Where price pulled back was just a minor trouble area yet it provided price with all the support in the world - that's unpredictability for you. )

g.
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I believe . . .
  • #65,583
  • Edited 1:24am Jun 6, 2010 12:20am | Edited 1:24am
Quoting prohlfer
Hey guys, just started reading this thread, and was hoping for some feedback. Do this look like a good bars to you? I believe it is a BUOB for the USD/CHF. It is following the stronger trend, and appears to have found support at 1.1500. Thanks guys.
Try this for posting charts:

If you’re a meta trader user just right click on the meta trader chart and go to “Save As Picture”.
Then “Select the image you would like to save:” Pick “Active chart (as is)” then click “OK”.
Save anywhere you want i.e. Desktop or a folder.

Then when you enter to post comments go down to “Manage Attachments” click that.
Then click “Browse” to find your pic you want to attach, i.e. Desktop or folder.
Click the pic you want and hit “Open”, Then hit “Upload”.
Wait for it to upload then close the “Manage Attachments” window. Then make sure you hit the “Submit Reply” button that is under the “Manage Attachments” button.
Done.
_____________________________________________________________________________________

There was some good discussion at the time of this setup (and after). A great way to use this thread for potential setups that occurred a few days ago or when backtesting setups from a year ago or more is to check to see if there were any posts made at the time of the setup. Most likely, there were comments made here.


Here's was one that I liked on the Usd/Chf at the time of this setup..

Quoting mbqb11
Hey W

Firstly let me say that this is only the way I interpret this situation and go about it. There certainly isn't one right or wrong way so if you feel confident in your approach do not let this dissuade you.

The reason I am looking for it is simply to see who is in control. If we think of the round number as our battle line, and the consolidation as the "fight" area if we can close below it(blue box) we see the bears have gained control. We also can make that assumption b/c when the bulls tried to push it above the last high it was shot...
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #65,584
  • Jun 6, 2010 12:50am Jun 6, 2010 12:50am
Quoting jeurre
it was a breakout of BEB close. yes, I closed half position on th FTA and moved the rest to BE, so, basically, it was not a bad trade. thanks

jeurre

Hey jeurre.

Bars close breaks at PPZs can be a bit risky so I like that you are managing them tightly and demoing too right?

Some thoughts on them, next bar breaks are important. Meaning if the next bar doesn't break the setup then forget it. . . think momentum.

Daily chart. I'm guessing that you used the 1219.00 as your PPZ which wasn't bad. The stronger and more confluenced PPZ level the better. (interesting where Gold closed on Friday, we were not that surprised. PPZ level.)
Obviously a PA setup has much more potential then just a regular bar close. (Purple and blue PB) Go figure. lol

Also lower time frames can be used, but I like the higher times frames for this setup they seem to have more strength. (8 Hour chart)
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #65,585
  • Jun 6, 2010 6:39am Jun 6, 2010 6:39am
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Mo

My advice is to use the most clear swing points for the timeframe you are looking at. I don't suggest to over do it. Now you can of course say plot fibs on the daily and then see what price is doing on the 4hr at your marked areas many do. I just wouldn't go overboard. One of the biggest pet peeves I have is when I see people using random swing points to plot a fib. To me this just takes all the value away from the fib. So stick to some clear swing points. I think your issues is you are trying to fine tune this entry and you are getting...
Thanks Mike
Yes, I am really at a loss on MM, apart from the 2% bit. I can put in more than 500.00 say in the region of 10,000. I'm not sure what amount to start with to be honest.
On the charts I have loaded, I wondered if you would'nt mind talking me through them a bit. I have put the fibs on the monthly and I see it wanting to go up, on the daily it's gone past my 365 and I would normally have jumped in then when it cleared this ma. What would you add on these charts analysis and comment wise.
Thanks
mo
  • #65,586
  • Jun 6, 2010 7:04am Jun 6, 2010 7:04am
Sorry Mike
I 4got to load the charts!
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Still not got the hang of loading charts either, so I hope you get them.

Cheers.
  • #65,587
  • Jun 6, 2010 7:05am Jun 6, 2010 7:05am
Aaaah....wrong charts.
  • #65,588
  • Jun 6, 2010 7:11am Jun 6, 2010 7:11am
Ok got it now, here they are
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  • #65,589
  • Jun 6, 2010 7:28am Jun 6, 2010 7:28am
Hi Mike
On the 4hour it passed the 365 at 1.0626 and this is where I would look to go in and put my SL below the ma.

Thanks
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  • #65,590
  • Jun 6, 2010 9:02am Jun 6, 2010 9:02am
Quoting jarroo
Continuation bars can be risky. That's why we like Ouside Bars at swings Highs/Lows. As KissFan mentioned at the time.



Floors pivots don't make sense to me in the forex market. Floor pivots are mathamatical equation off the OHLC but the forex market really doesn't have an Open or Close. Where in the stocks and futures markets there is an acutually Open and Close, so that does make sense.

Flips zones (PPZ levels) are pretty consistent no matter what broker or what the "Open or Close" is in the forex market. So you can see why James16 emphasizes...
Hi Jarroo,

Thanks for the analysis. I do recollect the analysis by KissFan, which proved to be correct.

Keeping the trade open over the weekend was a hypothetical question at this point of time in my trading journey. Oh yes I would also love to be in your shoes of being long on USD CAD at 1.000

Cheers
  • #65,591
  • Jun 6, 2010 9:06am Jun 6, 2010 9:06am
Quoting ghous
[b]The Trade Failed with strong upward thrust on Friday. SL at 1.0495 was...
Hi Ghous,

Thanks for the feedback. I am trying to comprehend as to how could I miss the minor trouble area, where the PA stalled and reversed. I think I need to analyse the Trade setups with an open mind rather than open eyes.

Cheers
  • #65,592
  • Jun 6, 2010 9:52am Jun 6, 2010 9:52am
Quoting novice198
Hi Ghous,

Thanks for the feedback. I am trying to comprehend as to how could I miss the minor trouble area, where the PA stalled and reversed. I think I need to analyse the Trade setups with an open mind rather than open eyes.

Cheers
Like I mentioned that BEOB in a normal market instead of a crazy one would most probably have blown through that minor area,

One of the big tricks of conquering ranging markets is the absolute awareness of every trouble area in the way and a keen eye watching price behavior at these areas. Again a market as choppy and whippy as Usd/cad at the moment is best left alone though.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #65,593
  • Jun 6, 2010 10:26am Jun 6, 2010 10:26am
Quoting ghous
One of the big tricks of conquering ranging markets is the absolute awareness of every trouble area in the way and a keen eye watching price behavior at these areas. Again a market as choppy and whippy as Usd/cad at the moment is best left alone though.

g.
another trick is to have a feel for what the entire market is doing together, and base your positions on that. I use crude as my backbone for the comdolls. we are in a bull market for USD right now... I don't go the other way. It has saved me so many times. I think the main problem with this thread is that so many people operate mechanically on J16 when J16 is anything BUT a mechanical system.
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #65,594
  • Jun 6, 2010 10:31am Jun 6, 2010 10:31am
Quoting Dan Gilbert
another trick is to have a feel for what the entire market is doing together, and base your positions on that. I use crude as my backbone for the comdolls. we are in a bull market for USD right now... I don't go the other way. It has saved me so many times. I think the main problem with this thread is that so many people operate mechanically on J16 when J16 is anything BUT a mechanical system.
I am not into correlations but....agreed.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #65,595
  • Jun 6, 2010 11:03am Jun 6, 2010 11:03am
Quoting morfisher
Thanks Mike
Yes, I am really at a loss on MM, apart from the 2% bit. I can put in more than 500.00 say in the region of 10,000. I'm not sure what amount to start with to be honest.
On the charts I have loaded, I wondered if you would'nt mind talking me through them a bit. I have put the fibs on the monthly and I see it wanting to go up, on the daily it's gone past my 365 and I would normally have jumped in then when it cleared this ma. What would you add on these charts analysis and comment wise.
Thanks
mo
Hey Mo

Right now don't even worry about putting in real money. DEMO only, period. When you start small then you can worry about that and by then you will understand proper MM.

Please read these posts 100 times over.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...light=beginner

posts (18-33).

Now let me try to figure out your other question

Mike
  • #65,596
  • Jun 6, 2010 11:12am Jun 6, 2010 11:12am
Quoting morfisher
Hi Mike
On the 4hour it passed the 365 at 1.0626 and this is where I would look to go in and put my SL below the ma.

Thanks
Hey Mo

From what I can gather you were simply trying to go long when price moved past a moving average. i am not to sure why you posted every timeframe. We don't want to just blindly go long when price crosses a MA. We want to look for confluence and then confirming price action.

Here is an example(and I am not sure how far you are have gone through this thread yet, but you want to start by learning the different bars James teaches, then go through and begin to understand confluence).

On this chart, notice how simple I keep things. One timeframe. Using your example about the 365 on the daily although I was reluctant b/c these aren't ideal setups for a new trader to PA.

Notice we have the 365, then we drew a fib and the 38.2 lines up with the 365. But now and most important notice the highlighted blue area. This is a PPZ, that also lines up with both the moving average and the fib retracement. Now we have our important area to watch, our confluence(multiple layers of things adding up). Now we wait for PA to confirm our trade. Notice where the 2 arrows area we have two BUOBs. Not the most ideal locations and that was why I was reluctant to show you this one(we want to see them at a deeper swing low that moves away from price. But these gave a very good tip off that price was going to break higher.

Again for now, keep it basic. Go back learn the bar setups back and front. Learn what makes a good bar from a great bar. Learn the different confluence and then begin to piece it together slowly. Go back and re-read post 1. Demo only, forget real money until you can prove on demo your success.

I hope this helps
Mike
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  • #65,597
  • Jun 6, 2010 11:55am Jun 6, 2010 11:55am
Hey Guys

Just checking out the weekly closes and there I noticed that the GBP looks pretty heavy across most pairs (except of course against the seemingly hapless Euro)

None of these setups meet my requirements for a trade, But these setups will be in the back of my mind If I take Daily and Intraday trades next week.

GBP/USD - Nice Pin, closing below 1.45 and in a big downtrend. Cons - no space

GBP/JPY - Average Pin in a downtrend, but not a very convincing close, and no space

GBP/CHF - The best of the bunch IMO, Great location (7000 level) and at more of a swing high, but again, a pretty weak close

Would be intersesting to know if anyone takes these

J
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  • #65,598
  • Jun 6, 2010 1:26pm Jun 6, 2010 1:26pm
I see no good setups on the daily nor weekly. The GBP/CHF Weekly made me pause as it was the first time back to the 60 EMA but it has nothing else going for it.

There are PA setups but none of them are at good locations.

The 1.7 area is only a minor PPZ on the weekly timeframe. Minor PPZs should only be used to manage trades... not to enter trades unless there is great confluence. The next major PPZ I see is at 1.75.

Scott

Quoting Jonnyislost
Hey Guys

Just checking out the weekly closes and there I noticed that the GBP looks pretty heavy across most pairs (except of course against the seemingly hapless Euro)

None of these setups meet my requirements for a trade, But these setups will be in the back of my mind If I take Daily and Intraday trades next week.

GBP/USD - Nice Pin, closing below 1.45 and in a big downtrend. Cons - no space

GBP/JPY - Average Pin in a downtrend, but not a very convincing close, and no space

GBP/CHF - The best of the bunch IMO, Great location...
  • #65,599
  • Jun 6, 2010 1:46pm Jun 6, 2010 1:46pm
Hi Ghous,
Kindly help with the source of the software you used to write on your chart and make those arrows.
Thanks

Quoting ghous
All plus points well spotted. My only concern would be that it is at a swing high which means you are playing it as a continuation bar and they can be very tricky. Space is a big factor when it comes to playing out of an obvious swing high/low. Had it formed at the 1.17, it was sure to have gotten more marks on location from me.

g.
  • #65,600
  • Jun 6, 2010 3:09pm Jun 6, 2010 3:09pm
CLN0 H1.

I learned two lessons on Friday, one cost me a little money, another made me miss a big opportunity. I had been watching CLN0 bounce off a strong resistance level for a couple of weeks, I think it was Dan who brought it to my attention in this thread.

While I was at work on Friday, I noticed across a small but well positioned pin bar on the H1, off the resistance level. I entered the trade short with a fairly close SL of around 30 pips. The price was hardly moving and I was called into a meeting. I wanted to watch the trade develop and actively manage it. As I wasn't going to be able to do that, I covered for pretty much BE.

When I came out the meeting, it had broken. I missed a 400 pip move through not having the confidence to let my trade play out, or the patience to let the move come.

That didn't stop me making a few small trades (losses) in a volatile market on a NFP day, on a Friday no less.

Bleh!
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