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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #65,561
  • Jun 5, 2010 8:24am Jun 5, 2010 8:24am
Quoting elizo
Hi,

this is my first post here. This is an amazing thread, so I'll do my best to absorb as much as possible while reading the entire thread. It will take a while but in the meantime, I would like to submit this to your opinion. Hopefully I won't bother anybody around.

This is a CHFJPY setup I have seen in daily chart. My rationale to go bearish slightly below the salmon rectangular area is:

1.- Overall trend is bearish.
2.- Daily BEOB
3.- Price came below the Fibo Confluence marked as salmon, so awaiting for a pullback there to maximize my entry...
Hi Elizo,

Welcome aboard our "little world"

Firstly since you are new to the stuff you are advised to play only the conventional entry method i.e take a trade on the break of the bar. I understand what you are trying to achieve with a tight stop but this skill is best left for later...

Things that you need to work on right now are finding the key zones in the market, playing the break of good sized bars and deciphering the reasons behind the movement of price, before and after your trigger bar.

Coming to Chf/Jpy specifically, I am a very keen observer of the close of the bar specially when price is heading into traffic or a supp/res zone. What I see here (and have labeled on the chart) is that your BEOVB found due support at the marked yellow ppz and failed to push through To me that means a lot. All the plus points you mentioned are obviously there but then it's all about stacking as many odds as possible in your favor before pulling the trigger.

An entry order, if you have noticed would still be below the yellow ppz and hence a pending order still looks a nice option, but honestly I find it easier to just stay back on the side lines until I can see a hard break of the near by ppz even if it means entering via a market order. Again it's all about "resisting the urge to jump into a trade" rather than "succumb to it". You are not a slave to the market or your emotions...you (and for that matter anyone) make your own destiny.

g.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: chfjpy.png Size: 41 KB
I believe . . .
  • #65,562
  • Jun 5, 2010 8:26am Jun 5, 2010 8:26am
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Elizo

Welcome to the thread

Both of your plans are more then fine with the understanding of the drawbacks of both which I think you do....
Oopsi!!

Snagit's taking some time having me get used to it.
I believe . . .
  • #65,563
  • Jun 5, 2010 8:36am Jun 5, 2010 8:36am
Quoting ghous
Oopsi!!

Snagit's taking some time having me get used to it.
still great up there ghous b/c it shows that we are see the same thing and that is a big deal for people who are new, a very big deal by my inbox

Thanks bud
Mike
  • #65,564
  • Jun 5, 2010 8:44am Jun 5, 2010 8:44am
Quoting mbqb11
still great up there ghous b/c it shows that we are see the same thing and that is a big deal for people who are new, a very big deal by my inbox

Thanks bud
Mike
I understand...

No need to mention your inbox, ppl here still believe you are a human.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #65,565
  • Jun 5, 2010 9:13am Jun 5, 2010 9:13am
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Elizo

Welcome to the thread

Both of your plans are more then fine with the understanding of the drawbacks of both which I think you do....
Thanks very much Mike, for your quick response. Very interesting that you started to reduce your risk on it. Agreed, looks like a crowded area below and it's a matter of monitoring what's going on at this 78.50 area.
  • #65,566
  • Jun 5, 2010 9:14am Jun 5, 2010 9:14am
I like this 2 day BUOB for the following reasons:

+ Hard rejection off a ppz
+ Big bar
+ Swing low
+ Engulfing prior 3 bars

Anyone looking at this? It requires tight management because of the FTA 50 pips away. Pros outweigh the cons for me on this one.

Opinions welcome.

-- Danny
Attached Image
  • #65,567
  • Jun 5, 2010 9:20am Jun 5, 2010 9:20am
Quoting ghous
Hi Elizo,

Welcome aboard our "little world"

Firstly since you are new to the stuff you are advised to play only the conventional entry method i.e take a trade on the break of the bar. I understand what you are trying to achieve with a tight stop but this skill is best left for later...

Things that you need to work on right now are finding the key zones in the market, playing the break of good sized bars and deciphering the reasons behind the movement of price, before and after your trigger bar.

Coming to Chf/Jpy specifically, I am a very...
Hi Ghous,

thanks as well, very instructing. I see your point and from a risk wise point of view looks pretty reasonable. Obviously, on the other hand, since we would wait for a break of that 1st area you mention, problems arise in terms of profitability. If we wait for 78.40 to enter, with a market order, then my question would be where to set the SL. Still above the highs of the BEOB? Looks really far? Or could it be a solution just above the salmon area, where the confluence of Fibos could defend eventually our position, around 79.85 or better 80.00, which is a BRN?

Maybe this could be a smarter solution to enter when the market has already moved and showed its true face, as you mention, plus breaking the TL I drew there, targeting 77.50 in first instance, and then wait and see...

Again, many thanks for your words.
  • #65,568
  • Jun 5, 2010 9:42am Jun 5, 2010 9:42am
Quoting bluetrader
I like this 2 day BUOB for the following reasons:

+ Hard rejection off a ppz
+ Big bar
+ Swing low
+ Engulfing prior 3 bars

Anyone looking at this? It requires tight management because of the FTA 50 pips away. Pros outweigh the cons for me on this one.

Opinions welcome.

-- Danny
Danny in no way am I a senior here.....and I agree there are some great postives to this....but IMO that 1.06 area is another PPZ and being partial to fibs. I don't like the 50% area and the 61.8% above it in with the overall trend downward....but of course with some PA and babysittting I would consider scalping it either long or short...again ----remember this is just my rookie opinion

Thanks for throwing the chart up for discussion...good stuff
Attached Image
  • #65,569
  • Jun 5, 2010 10:43am Jun 5, 2010 10:43am
Hi Everyone,

I have just started to read this great thread. Still on demo and I like to use trendlines, s/r the 365 ma and fibs following the trend, moving down from the daily t/f then to the hour and 15min to fine tune the entry/exit.

Having said that, fibs, I don't know how to properly apply them to my charts, do I put them on the monthly, then the daily or just the hour. Confused.

I have read about the fib retracement and have watched this happen many times and so I am anxious to get this bit really bang on.

Recently opened an account with fxcm and put in £500.00 with the view to trade 10k lots, btw they are increasing minimum opening deposit to £5000.00 on June 13th, which in part was why I opened it.

I have used countless strategies and systems that I have gleaned from FF but always find that the above holds true most of the time and it's simple for me to follow.

Much obliged if you could help, thanks and kind regards.
  • #65,570
  • Jun 5, 2010 10:57am Jun 5, 2010 10:57am
Quoting morfisher
Hi Everyone,

I have just started to read this great thread....
Hey Mo

My advice is to use the most clear swing points for the timeframe you are looking at. I don't suggest to over do it. Now you can of course say plot fibs on the daily and then see what price is doing on the 4hr at your marked areas many do. I just wouldn't go overboard. One of the biggest pet peeves I have is when I see people using random swing points to plot a fib. To me this just takes all the value away from the fib. So stick to some clear swing points. I think your issues is you are trying to fine tune this entry and you are getting stuck in paralysis analysis. This is a very common mistake for new traders b/c they want that perfect entry. I say strip it all way. Stick to the daily/weekly only as James suggest. Forget about whats going on under that. Open a daily chart, analyze that chart and look for an entry on that chart. Until you can do that with success doing more then that just becomes cumbersome and usually holds back a trader. Again it is up to you but this is from my experience of what holds people back. They try to do to much. Can you build to that point absolutely. I personally always analyze and trade off the same timeframe. The only exception is my breakout trading. Simplicity rules in the markets.

A side note about your account. $500 is no where near enough to trade at 10,000 units which is a mini lot. If you have not learned about MM yet let me know and I will post some links. At 2% risk you can risk 10$ on that account. That would be a maximum of 10 pip stop loss. 10 pips at 1$ per point = 10$. A $500 should be with a nano lot broker where you can trade at pennies per pip. Even $5,000 account shouldn't be using a mini account. IMO up to 50k should be on micro lots. It just makes sense MM wise.

Hope this helps and welcome to the thread

Mike
  • #65,571
  • Jun 5, 2010 11:15am Jun 5, 2010 11:15am
Quoting elizo
Hi Ghous,

thanks as well, very instructing. I see your point and from a risk wise point of view looks pretty reasonable. Obviously, on the other hand, since we would wait for a break of that 1st area you mention, problems arise in terms of profitability. If we wait for 78.40 to enter, with a market order, then my question would be where to set the SL. Still above the highs of the BEOB? Looks really far? Or could it be a solution just above the salmon area, where the confluence of Fibos could defend eventually our position, around 79.85 or better...
In the case of a quick hard break of the first trouble area a tighter stop is a good idea.

g.
I believe . . .
  • #65,572
  • Jun 5, 2010 12:56pm Jun 5, 2010 12:56pm
Quoting bluetrader
I like this 2 day BUOB for the following reasons:

+ Hard rejection off a ppz
+ Big bar
+ Swing low
+ Engulfing prior 3 bars

Anyone looking at this? It requires tight management because of the FTA 50 pips away. Pros outweigh the cons for me on this one.

Opinions welcome.

-- Danny
Problem is that it is against the longer trend. It is also against fundamentals (interest rates) which Canada just raised. Also against oil prices which will undoubtedly go up this summer like they always do and CDN dollar tracks oil prices.

So as you might have guessed I am bearish on this on daily/weekly.
  • #65,573
  • Jun 5, 2010 1:01pm Jun 5, 2010 1:01pm
Quoting mbqb11
Hey Mo

My advice is to use the most clear swing points for the timeframe you are looking at. I don't suggest to over do it....
This is 100% correct. Micro lots so that you can put in a decent stop loss and still exercise good Money Management.
  • #65,574
  • Jun 5, 2010 1:24pm Jun 5, 2010 1:24pm
i hope it is ok to post some stock charts here. imho this discussion about charts, is just a fabulous way to learn. i just love it!!! if it's not ok, please tell me.

this is german basf on the daily.
buob. trouble areas will be the round number 42 and 40 euro.
negativ: it is in traffic.

what do you think?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: basf.png Size: 14 KB
meine augen sind die sterne
  • #65,575
  • Jun 5, 2010 1:29pm Jun 5, 2010 1:29pm
Quoting aserbfx
i hope it is ok to post some stock charts here. imho this discussion about charts, is just a fabulous way to learn. i just love it!!! if it's not ok, please tell me.

this is german basf on the daily.
buob. trouble areas will be the round number 42 and 40 euro.
negativ: it is in traffic.

what do you think?
I wouldn't trade it just on buob and fib. You should have one or two other things for confluence. What is the longer term trend (next higher time frame)? I don't recommend using indicators like MACD either as they predict the past not the future. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
  • #65,576
  • Jun 5, 2010 1:33pm Jun 5, 2010 1:33pm
Quoting EasySt
I wouldn't trade it just on buob and fib. You should have one or two other things for confluence. What is the longer term trend (next higher time frame)? I don't recommend using indicators like MACD either as they predict the past not the future. Just my opinion, I could be wrong.
yes, as expected. it is running into big traffic.
right! thx
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meine augen sind die sterne
  • #65,577
  • Jun 5, 2010 5:10pm Jun 5, 2010 5:10pm
Hey guys, just started reading this thread, and was hoping for some feedback. Do this look like a good bars to you? I believe it is a BUOB for the USD/CHF. It is following the stronger trend, and appears to have found support at 1.1500. Thanks guys.
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc usdchfpic.doc   138 KB | 359 downloads
  • #65,578
  • Edited 9:08pm Jun 5, 2010 9:07pm | Edited 9:08pm
Quoting novice198
Noticed BEOB on the daily Chart. Closed strongly below Weekly and daily pivot levels and the last three bars.
Plan to trade this setup as per the chart.
Comments / critiques welcome.


Cheers
Novice198
The Trade Failed with strong upward thrust on Friday. SL at 1.0495 was triggered for a loss of 1.3%. I think Weekly and Monthly pivots may not mean much instead we should use Price flip zones. Went thru the videos of PeterFM and found same very informative. Now I have marked my charts accordingly and will look for setup around those areas of interest.

One question for the seniors, though not related to this trade, should we keep our Trade posn open during the weekend. I have always been told and of late I have seen also that the weekend gaps can be as large as 200 pips, so would it be better to close on Friday noon EST and then open your position again on Monday as the gap risk is mitigated at the cost of the spread.
Also last Friday being NFP announcement day should we enter a fresh trade on NFP Friday ( all criteria for set up being in place) as big moves may take place on NFP announcement.

Cheers
Novice198

PS This was USD CAD short trade
  • #65,579
  • Jun 5, 2010 9:22pm Jun 5, 2010 9:22pm
Quoting aserbfx
i hope it is ok to post some stock charts here. imho this discussion about charts, is just a fabulous way to learn. i just love it!!! if it's not ok, please tell me.

this is german basf on the daily.
buob. trouble areas will be the round number 42 and 40 euro.
negativ: it is in traffic.

what do you think?
First it's a Bearish Outside Bar, a beob and not a buob.

To me this sounds pretty ok. The bar is pretty large in comparison to the bars preceding it. I am not into stocks so just looking at it as another chart.

Did you notice the resistance trend line?

g.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: basf.png Size: 24 KB
I believe . . .
  • #65,580
  • Jun 5, 2010 9:37pm Jun 5, 2010 9:37pm
Quoting prohlfer
Hey guys, just started reading this thread, and was hoping for some feedback. Do this look like a good bars to you? I believe it is a BUOB for the USD/CHF. It is following the stronger trend, and appears to have found support at 1.1500. Thanks guys.
All plus points well spotted. My only concern would be that it is at a swing high which means you are playing it as a continuation bar and they can be very tricky. Space is a big factor when it comes to playing out of an obvious swing high/low. Had it formed at the 1.17, it was sure to have gotten more marks on location from me.

g.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf weekly.png Size: 41 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf daily.png Size: 40 KB
I believe . . .
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