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  • #12,581
  • Jun 4, 2010 6:19pm Jun 4, 2010 6:19pm
"The worker does what the bosses say because ( in relation to the MAs ): As price heads in the general trend direction, it retraces and changes…these oscillations have an overall impact in a direction on the big boss MAs. A very slow one. Monthly is is the ultimate price smoother and why you use it and it's MAs as the big boss".


I'm a bit confused with this paragraph. I'm under the impression that Strat's method teaches us that we have a 20ema and a 50sma on the worker also a 100ema and a 250sma on the worker that would in turn be the 20ema and the 50sma on the boss. Have I missed a lesson on Big Boss ma's? If so would someone please direct me to this lesson. Thank you,
T
  • #12,582
  • Jun 4, 2010 10:22pm Jun 4, 2010 10:22pm
Quoting tmanbone
"The worker does what the bosses say because ( in relation to the MAs ): As price heads in the general trend direction, it retraces and changes…these oscillations have an overall impact in a direction on the big boss MAs. A very slow one. Monthly is is the ultimate price smoother and why you use it and it's MAs as the big boss".


[color=#4169e1]I'm a bit confused with this paragraph. I'm under the impression that Strat's method teaches us that we have a 20ema and a 50sma on the worker also a 100ema and a 250sma on the...
I think it is just a logical extension. 100ema on the boss would be approximately 20 ema on the big boss considering a month is 4.5 weeks.

If you are using MT4, you will have them on the chart anyway unless you are using 3 different charts for worker, boss and big boss for a pair. I must confess though that I look only at the 20ema line on the big boss and not really pay attention to it.

Have a good weekend1
  • #12,583
  • Jun 5, 2010 12:25am Jun 5, 2010 12:25am
Empirical evidence

Whether technical analysis actually works is a matter of controversy.



Methods vary greatly, and different technical analysts can sometimes make contradictory predictions from the same data. Many investors claim that they experience positive returns, but academic appraisals often find that it has little predictive power.[28]



A Federal Reserve working paper[14] regarding support and resistance levels in short-term foreign exchange rates "offers strong evidence that the levels help to predict intraday trend interruptions," although the "predictive power" of those levels was "found to vary across the exchange rates and firms examined".


Technical trading strategies were found to be effective in the Chinese marketplace by a recent study that states, "Finally, we find significant positive returns on buy trades generated by the contrarian version of the moving average crossover rule, the channel breakout rule, and the Bollinger band trading rule, after accounting for transaction costs of 0.50 percent." Nauzer J. Balsara, Gary Chen and Lin Zheng The Chinese Stock Market:




Critics of technical analysis include well-known fundamental analysts. For example,



Peter Lynch once commented, "Charts are great for predicting the past."[citation needed]


Warren Buffett has said, "I realized technical analysis didn't work when I turned the charts upside down and didn't get a different answer" and "If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians."[citation needed]



In a paper published in the Journal of Finance, Dr. Andrew W. Lo, director MIT Laboratory for Financial Engineering, working with Harry Mamaysky and Jiang Wang found that "Technical analysis, also known as "charting," has been a part of financial practice for many decades, but this discipline has not received the same level of academic scrutiny and acceptance as more traditional approaches such as fundamental analysis.



One of the main obstacles is the highly subjective nature of technical analysis—the presence of geometric shapes in historical price charts is often in the eyes of the beholder.



  • #12,584
  • Edited 1:19pm Jun 5, 2010 12:31am | Edited 1:19pm
Quoting Raje$h
I think it is just a logical extension. 100ema on the boss would be approximately 20 ema on the big boss considering a month is 4.5 weeks.

If you are using MT4, you will have them on the chart anyway unless you are using 3 different charts for worker, boss and big boss for a pair. I must confess though that I look only at the 20ema line on the big boss and not really pay attention to it.

Have a good weekend1
Disregard post. I need more time to think, before I reply. I jumped the gun. Thanks,

EDIT: 6/5 The more I study this chart the more I think the Big Boss 20ma deserves attention, at least on the E/J pair. What does everyone else think?
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T
  • #12,585
  • Jun 5, 2010 4:14am Jun 5, 2010 4:14am
Quoting Raje$h
.

If you are using MT4, you will have them on the chart anyway unless you are using 3 different charts for worker, boss and big boss for a pair.
Rajesh, if you want you can use "visualistaion" to see WORKER MAs only on WORKER chart & BOSS MAs on BOSS chart just select in visualisation which TF you want to see them on and therefore, no need to have three charts for a pair. But what is the point of doing it when no one does.
  • #12,586
  • Edited 7:00am Jun 5, 2010 4:16am | Edited 7:00am
Quoting stgeorge
Empirical evidence

Whether technical analysis actually works is a matter of controversy.
Sorry I didn't understand the purpose of this post. Do you want us to be librarians or your post is on the wrong thread.lol
  • #12,587
  • Jun 5, 2010 7:46am Jun 5, 2010 7:46am
BigBoss shows clearly where the next train station is.Thanks.
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My humble opinion.
  • #12,588
  • Jun 5, 2010 1:13pm Jun 5, 2010 1:13pm
The point is simple!
There is no independent study on the use of technical analysis,(despite the fact that technical analysis has been around for over 80 years), that proves that they work and make money for there users.

They do not work, but a whole industry is based on the hope rather than the experience of the users results. 95% of all new traders loose up to $30.000 within 3 months of trading.

But wait for it.

Note the comment from the Federal Reserve regarding support and resistance.

Granted they were talking about interday, but we do not know if they looked at longer time frames? Probably not as most people trade interday.

For me, having spent thousands of hours trading, I find it reasuring that the Fed of all bodies should think that support and resistance is the only technical analysis that they found any merit in.

This post was for the new people on this blog who probably need some reasurance, and for the old pro's a pat on the back for separating the wheat from the chaff.
  • #12,589
  • Jun 5, 2010 1:24pm Jun 5, 2010 1:24pm
Quoting stgeorge
The point is simple!
There is no independent study on the use of technical analysis,
Thankyou Sir for repying, everyday I am learning something new.
  • #12,590
  • Jun 5, 2010 2:10pm Jun 5, 2010 2:10pm
Quoting stgeorge
The point is simple!
Note the comment from the Federal Reserve regarding support and resistance.

For me, having spent thousands of hours trading, I find it reasuring that the Fed of all bodies should think that support and resistance is the only technical analysis that they found any merit in.

This post was for the new people on this blog who probably need some reasurance.

S&R is the blood and bone of tech. analysts in the trading world. It's a well known fact with us as pit traders.
From the tips to the dips, it's all about the pips
  • #12,591
  • Edited 11:20pm Jun 5, 2010 6:55pm | Edited 11:20pm
Quoting stgeorge
The point is simple!
There is no independent study on the use of technical analysis,(despite the fact that technical analysis has been around for over 80 years), that proves that they work and make money for there users.

They do not work, but a whole industry is based on the hope rather than the experience of the users results. 95% of all new traders loose up to $30.000 within 3 months of trading.

But wait for it.

Note the comment from the Federal Reserve regarding support and resistance.

Granted they were talking about interday, but...

Thanks for the clarification, this makes perfect sense. Took a couple of reads to get the point. Cheers,
T
  • #12,592
  • Jun 5, 2010 9:35pm Jun 5, 2010 9:35pm
Anyone believing that technical analysis is unprofitable is misguided in choosing this as the thread to make your case for it.
  • #12,593
  • Edited 6:45am Jun 6, 2010 6:45am | Edited 6:45am
Hi Seniors,

Is it ok to say BIG BOSS is in down trend now? Last months bearish candle is covering previous nine months candles.

Your help will be highly appreciated.

Thanks in advance
  • #12,594
  • Jun 6, 2010 1:31pm Jun 6, 2010 1:31pm
Quoting PistolDave
Anyone believing that technical analysis is unprofitable is misguided in choosing this as the thread to make your case for it.
Word. And in my opinion what you just said sums it up.
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #12,595
  • Jun 6, 2010 4:52pm Jun 6, 2010 4:52pm
Hello. Although I have a long way to go reading the thread, I'd like to post my analysis of the GBP/JPY pair.

Big Boss- May BEEB, downtrend since Aug 09. Price below 20, with 20 and 50 sloping downward.

Boss- Price swings showing LL and LH. Week ended as a shooting star, indicating possible reversal. Price below 20 and both MA's just starting to
slope downward.

Worker- Price retraced to 135.00 S/R area, 61.8 fib area and candle closed as a BEEB, showing bears are in control. Price also closed below 20 and previous 133.00 S/R area.

Entry below Friday's BEEB on the Worker, I believe would follow basic PASR, but SL above swing high is 450+ pips. If one was to open a short position below Friday's BEEB, and close part position at first S/R of 129.00 area, RR would be less than 1/1.

Comments would be appreciated, on how this would be traded, if traded at all. Thank you TL
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  • #12,596
  • Jun 6, 2010 5:46pm Jun 6, 2010 5:46pm
Quoting Flem26
Word. And in my opinion what you just said sums it up.
You guys may want to reread StGeorge's post, he is speaking up for TA not against. Cheers,
T
  • #12,597
  • Jun 6, 2010 9:09pm Jun 6, 2010 9:09pm
Quoting simpleman
Hi Seniors,

Is it ok to say BIG BOSS is in down trend now? Last months bearish candle is covering previous nine months candles.

Your help will be highly appreciated.

Thanks in advance
This is a pretty subjective topic but ill try and break it down a bit.

First what defines a trend? Some would say an uptrend is when prices start in the lower left hand corner of your chart and end in the upper right hand corner of your chart. These are the kinds of answers that make it so subjective.

A trend is defined by prices making HH and HL in an uptrend and LL and LH in a downtrend.

Now we have to ask ourselves do we want to analyse the immediate trend or the over all BIG picture?

Ill use the following AUD/USD chart to try and visually explain myself.

On the Big Boss there are trends within trends within trends within................................. and so on.
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  • #12,598
  • Jun 6, 2010 9:28pm Jun 6, 2010 9:28pm
Quoting GibsonL6
Hello. Although I have a long way to go reading the thread, I'd like to post my analysis of the GBP/JPY pair.

Big Boss-...
Good first analysis Gibson!

The first thing i would point out is that you seem to have a few too many S/R levels. Zoom out a bit and concentrate on the major levels at first. Refer to blackeagles posts on S/R placement if you have any Q's.

The next is that GBP/JPY (AKA The Beast) is well known for huge bars like this and can make the pair difficult to trade. When first starting out, trading from R to first S and S to first R a 1/1 RR is not that bad IMO so not a real big deal there but the psychology of a huge bar SL like this one can be tough. I will not be trading this bar because of it's size.
  • #12,599
  • Edited 10:49pm Jun 6, 2010 10:12pm | Edited 10:49pm
Quoting CrudeCraig
Good first analysis Gibson!

The next is that GBP/JPY (AKA The Beast) is well known for huge bars like this and can make the pair difficult to trade. When first starting out, trading from R to first S and S to first R a 1/1 RR is not that bad IMO so not a real big deal there but the psychology of a huge bar SL like this one can be tough. I will not be trading this bar because of it's size.
Hi CrudeCraig and seniors,

I traded the beast from below the shooting star of Thursday down to 132.6 - support on my chart.

I have again shorted it today below the BEEB of Friday. I took this trade in spite of the big bar as hoping the 132.6 will provide a good resistance as it has a few times in May.

Could you please analyse and tell me if I am doing this correctly and following basic PASR rules?
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  • #12,600
  • Edited Jun 7, 2010 12:06am Jun 6, 2010 11:50pm | Edited Jun 7, 2010 12:06am
Quoting Raje$h
Hi CrudeCraig and seniors,

I traded the beast from below the shooting star of Thursday down to 132.6 - support on my chart.

I have again shorted it today below the BEEB of Friday. I took this trade in spite of the big bar as hoping the 132.6 will provide a good resistance as it has a few times in May.

Could you please analyse and tell me if I am doing this correctly and following basic PASR rules?

Hey Raje$h,

Your first entry was pretty good. Actually a little more advanced as its not a perfect candle. The TL it reacted off of is not on your charts which would have probably justified it for me along with the 50 fib but overall not a bad trade at all considering you made a profit. TP was good as well at first support.

Second entry may prove to be a quick ride down to 126 i just don't like the 450 pip SL.
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