Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

Hi Patience,

How are you doing? It seems this thread has gone quiet. Good to see you're posting here. Someone's gotta keep this thread of our friend alive :-)

Hey Puks - going good thanks, this volatility is fabulous - ninja in, ninja out - one day I'll become a Samurai How is your target of 1% per day going? Good I hope. Got any tips? I pop into the other thread to see how it is hanging - they're way too clever for me

I am close. currently .80% a day but a good trade and I am on my way :-)

I reckon today will be a "black friday".

Nice one

USDX 4 Hour

Now why did major currencies fall against bad news of USA employment change? Isn't it supposed to be the other way around? Does this mean the currencies will continue to fall when US markets open later?

Back in December I did a couple of long range charts on the USD/CHF and the EUR/USD. I don't see any reason to change the long range forecast on these charts, they seem to be playing out quite well.

Hey Qwert - how you going? Markets are very nervous so risk has been taken off the table benefitting the US$ as the safe haven. US$ is also in an uptrend until it's not

Where will the DAX go? Good opportunities if you can short this one.

Hi Patience. I'm good. I've been very busy for the past few months so I didn't have time to trade. You know the feeling of not trading for a long time and then you just want to trade. My mistake was I didn't try to analyze it very well. Only a few trades but I lost a lot of my hard earned money(money earned in forex). Anyway, I'm happy that I'm still using bank's money and I'll try not to make the same mistakes again.

sorry to hear that (but at least it's only the house's money). You've missed a lot of action over the last month or so. May was a bloodbath. We're in quite a risk averse environment with wild swings day-to-day favouring a "sell the rally" mode in favour of the US$ (until it's not). I say "until it's not" because the US$ day of reckoning will come. They are doing so much to cut their budget deficit and implement austerity measures - not! Anyway, I'm knackered after placing about a gazillion trades (slight exaggeration ) Feel like I've run a marathon. Spot ya round

Nice charts Cwix

Thanks Patience. I tend to do more long range stuff. Also thanks for the encouragement.

Dear Sirs.

Excellent results!

SELL >>>GBP/JPY>>>2010/06/03 time 18:43:56 >>>2010/06/04 time 13:32:53
136.200>>>134.280>>>High/Low +252(-10)>>>192 pips

Keep up the impressed work!

hi SHAHAB8B,
the new thread you opened (600 pips per month) is quite good and is appreciative. Please i have been trying to post there but am not allowed, that is no 1
no 2, what will happen to this thread (weekly cot), are we still keeping it? and
no 3, i sent you a mail and you have not replied me ... please do
................ no doubt .... i appreciate you

Okay, what's up guys, you been buying that E/U, G/U, A/U and N/U? Shucks, looks like these suckers are going down if that sentiment reading is accurate. Maybe these trades were placed before USDX broke that ascending triangle Don't think we've seen capitulation yet so would expect more pain for those long on these currencies (at least a 100% retracement on my weekly USDX) though nothing is a given in this market. We may get a slight reprieve from the downdraft, just pray the PPT feel like stepping in on Monday or something. No weekly report from Lloyds TSB in my inbox - maybe they've also passed out on the floor. 1.16 on E/U is just a stone's throw away ....

SSI: EURUSD Positioning Surprisingly Steady Despite New Four Year Low
Friday, 04 Jun 2010 20:52 GMT
Written by John Kicklighter

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:



Intraday Highlight:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at 1.71 as nearly 63% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.53 as 60% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 1.7% higher than yesterday and 27.1% stronger since last week. Short positions are 9.0% lower than yesterday and 5.4% weaker since last week. Open interest is 2.5% weaker than yesterday and 2.6% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD losses.

SSI Details:

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 1.16 as nearly 54% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.01 as 50% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.2% higher than yesterday and 4.4% stronger since last week. Short positions are 12.2% lower than yesterday and 14.1% stronger since last week. Open interest is 6.0% weaker than yesterday and 1.6% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD losses.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at 1.65 as nearly 62% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.05 as 51% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 16.9% higher than yesterday and 1.0% stronger since last week. Short positions are 25.8% lower than yesterday and 3.6% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.9% weaker than yesterday and 1.7% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY losses.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.77 as nearly 64% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.21 as 55% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 13.9% higher than yesterday and 3.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 22.0% lower than yesterday and 7.6% weaker since last week. Open interest is 2.3% weaker than yesterday and 7.5% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at -1.41 as nearly 59% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.30 as 57% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 14.8% lower than yesterday and 1.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 7.4% lower than yesterday and 5.2% weaker since last week. Open interest is 10.6% weaker than yesterday and 15.4% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF gains.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 1.20 as nearly 54% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.68 as 63% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 19.7% lower than yesterday and 5.7% weaker since last week. Short positions are 13.0% higher than yesterday and 23.7% stronger since last week. Open interest is 7.5% weaker than yesterday and 0.9% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at 1.44 as nearly 59% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.02 as 51% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 11.9% higher than yesterday and 17.8% stronger since last week. Short positions are 23.9% lower than yesterday and 24.6% weaker since last week. Open interest is 6.2% weaker than yesterday and 6.8% below its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD losses.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at 2.19 as nearly 69% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.16 as 54% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 48.4% higher than yesterday and 46.9% stronger since last week. Short positions are 21.2% lower than yesterday and 35.3% weaker since last week. Open interest is 16.2% stronger than yesterday and 7.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD losses.

USDX Weekly

You are really freaking me out.

Here we go ..... somebody is trying to do damage control before markets open on Monday

Hungary backtracks on talk about default
Posted 6/5/2010 4:09 PM ET
By Pablo Gorondi, Associated Press Writer

BUDAPEST, Hungary — Hungary's government on Saturday tried to calm investors and distanced itself from earlier comments by officials claiming that the country was close to defaulting on its debts.

State Secretary Mihaly Varga, a former finance minister, described talk of a default "exaggerated ... and unfortunate," adding that the new, center-right government of the Fidesz party was committed to the 2010 budget deficit of 3.8 percent of GDP set by the previous administration even if "immediate and urgent" steps were needed to achieve it.

"The situation is consolidated and the planned budget deficit can be met," Varga said, adding that declarations putting Hungary in the same group as Greece or other countries struggling with huge deficits "do not give a credible view of Hungary's status."

Statements Thursday and Friday from several Fidesz and government officials, which compared Hungary's situation with that of Greece and raised the possibility of a budget gap twice as big as planned, shocked financial markets and were seen as one of the reasons the euro fell to four-year lows, while the Hungarian forint fell around 5 percent and the Budapest Stock Exchange ended Friday 3.3 percent lower on the day.

Analysts seemed perplexed by the chilling comments and European officials also sought to allay market fears that Hungary was on the edge of insolvency.

"Hungary has made serious progress in consolidating its public finances over the last couple of years," Olli Rehn, Europe's commissioner for economic and monetary affairs, told reporters after a meeting of the Group of 20 in South Korea on Saturday. Any talk of a risk of default "is widely exaggerated," he said.

"The claim that the country is on a brink of sovereign default and risks following the Greek path does not hold up against the facts," said a report on emerging markets from Goldman Sachs analyst Magdalena Polan. "Hungary has already faced a crisis and asked for IMF and EU assistance in late 2008. In this context, Hungary is some 18 months ahead of Greece."

To read further: http://www.newsrunner.com/display-ar...+about+default

A/U COT,

I think I mentioned more than couple of times that the reducing long contracts in A/U pointing to a trend change. Well ,that's where we are now.

Hi Patience, How did the market treat you last week? It was pretty exciting on Fri, the retracement on the equities finished sooner than expected.The next week trading will be fun.

As for E/U as you said 1.1645 the next week.We have monthly structural support at 1.165-1.175 regions, if that breaks then parity and below, even below 0.88 may be in late 2011.

My old chart ,when the price was 1.287, I guess people were laughing at me when I posted that.

Hi there, thank you for your kind comments. Sorry if I missed your pm, I have to reply tons of pms, emails everyday. I'll get back to you soon.

EURJPY more potential to the downside as well as AMAZON.COM soon.
At AMZN some insider selling seen and forimng a nice bearflag.