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  • #12,541
  • Jun 2, 2010 7:59pm Jun 2, 2010 7:59pm
Quoting mstandifer
It would not be counter trend given we are in the midst of chop and we are playing the chop. At least that's the way I'm playing it.

1. USDJPY Monthly is in an overall downtrend but the most current bars are what we are interested in. Those most recent bars are making HH and HL.

2. USDJPY Weekly is making even clearer HH and HL.

3. USDJPY Daily broke the 90.75 resistance on the 27th and the basic PASR you are asking about occured on the 1st with a BUOB. Long today 10 pips above yesterday's high....
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
I am a novice in relation to many on this thread, having studied (and I think, mostly understood) from the beginning to page 702.

I have carefully checked your response against my own charts, and wish to make the following observations:

1) On the monthly, the May bar is the controlling bar, and made a LH (not HH as you say). Surely the May bar is the the "most current"?

2) When the monthly bar for June closes it may well make a HL, but we will not know this until the end of the month.

3) Anyway, unless the monthly June bar takes out the H or L of the May bar, the May bar will still be the controlling bar (see the blue dashed lines also on the daily)

4) On my daily chart (attached) the 1st of June bar (black arrow) was not a BUOB, but a BEEB. Big difference, and I don't think different platforms would explain this.

For beginners and novices like me, this debate is highlighting one of the most difficult and subjective matters in the mastery of Strat's basic PASR trading system; which is the reason I am hoping for some comments from the senior trainers.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler" Albert Einstein
  • #12,542
  • Edited 8:31pm Jun 2, 2010 8:20pm | Edited 8:31pm
quote=No1Optimist;
I am a novice in relation to many on this thread, having studied (and I think, mostly understood) from the beginning to page 702.

I have carefully checked your response against my own charts, and wish to make the following observations:

1) On the monthly, the May bar is the controlling bar, and made a LH (not HH as you say). Surely the May bar is the the "most current"?
Unfortunately, you might be missing the definition of a technical HH and HL. See the attached chart. The monthly is in fact making HH and HL. 1 is the first HH and 2 is the first HL.

You are correct in that the May bar is the controlling bar.
2) When the monthly bar for June closes it may well make a HL, but we will not know this until the end of the month.
Correct. However, since we have already made the first HL, this one would be the second HL.

3) Anyway, unless the monthly June bar takes out the H or L of the May bar, the May bar will still be the controlling bar (see the blue dashed lines also on the daily)
Correct. But that does not mean you can't trade within that bar in both directions.

4) On my daily chart (attached) the 1st of June bar (black arrow) was not a BUOB, but a BEEB. Big difference, and I don't think different platforms would explain this.
Actually it would. My bar prints at midnight. If your bar prints at another time then it will skew the candles. Take a close look at my candle with the arrow on the 2nd chart. The 3rd chart is from a different data provider but it's the same bar. This is the ever present argument of data feeds. See my post regarding data feeds.
Unfortunately, this is a case of 'trade what your charts say'.

For beginners and novices like me, this debate is highlighting one of the most difficult and subjective matters in the mastery of Strat's basic PASR trading system; which is the reason I am hoping for some comments from the senior trainers.[/quote]
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  • #12,543
  • Jun 2, 2010 8:20pm Jun 2, 2010 8:20pm
Quoting mstandifer;3773<br /> 005
This is a good post from someone just as they figured it out.
I am very familiar with tmanbone's post, and understand his point.

I posted a "zoomed in" view of my chart, so that readers could see the LH and LL marked there.

It seems to me that you are suggesting that we should be trying to spot and trade a "trend change".

Countless times Strat has advised that we should not be trying to trade the changes, but should wait until a trend is established and then trade, to take some pips from the meat of the change

In reply to Alexandra, may I just say I am neither pessimistic or the opposite, just trying to understand.
"Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler" Albert Einstein
  • #12,544
  • Jun 2, 2010 8:25pm Jun 2, 2010 8:25pm
Quoting No1Optimist
I am very familiar with tmanbone's post, and understand his point.

I posted a "zoomed in" view of my chart, so that readers could see the LH and LL marked there.

It seems to me that you are suggesting that we should be trying to spot and trade a "trend change".

Countless times Strat has advised that we should not be trying to trade the changes, but should wait until a trend is established and then trade, to take some pips from the meat of the change

In reply to Alexandra, may I just say I am neither pessimistic or the opposite, just trying...
You are where I was 6 months ago. I was very frustrated because I'm a 'rules' person. The rule says X so why are these people posting trades and strategies against the rules.

You will learn, just as I did that your rule book will acquire sub-rules and footnotes. These hard rules are to help you learn the basics.

Unfortunately, there are many skill levels participating on this thread and it makes it difficult to know what you should apply now vs. what you should apply after you've learned step X.

Continue to ask questions. Everyone here is patient and willing to help.

See my reply above with more charts:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=12542
  • #12,545
  • Jun 2, 2010 8:29pm Jun 2, 2010 8:29pm
This might help you understand the differences in candles from different feeds.


Quoting mstandifer
After much research on the topic, I've finally decided to post this for those of you that still have the internal struggle of "your chart doesn't look like mine"

This will put it to rest once and for all...I promise.

1. A bar is a bar no matter the broker. It's simply a measurement of price over a certain period of time.

2. It doesn't matter if your bar doesn't look like my bar because we are trading 'types' of bars. These 'types' of bars exist on all charts regardless of the broker and regardless of whether or not yours coincides with mine....
Strat added a comment that it is important you make your trading decision at the 5pm NY close regardless of when your candle prints.
  • #12,546
  • Jun 2, 2010 9:17pm Jun 2, 2010 9:17pm
Quoting mstandifer
You are where I was 6 months ago....
You will learn, just as I did that your rule book will acquire sub-rules and footnotes. These hard rules are to help you learn the basics.

Marcus just hit the nail on the head!

At first we must be able to trade basic PASR and when you start to get the hang of the basic stuff you start to SEE more, just a little more here and there then you start to understand some of Strats posts a little more and the little messages that are in his charts and words (this is why it's soo important to re-read the thread). It's hard to explain but it truly is how i see my trading improving. Patience will pay off, every time i have skipped a step in the path it seems as if i fall 3 steps back. If you let it play out, strats method of teaching works Very Very well!

I know it's not the answer you were looking for but i hope it helps some.
  • #12,547
  • Jun 2, 2010 9:20pm Jun 2, 2010 9:20pm
Quoting mstandifer
You are where I was 6 months ago....
Thanks for taking the time to answer my query.

You are correct about the apparent anomalies and contradictions, making decisions difficult for novices.

Having come to Strat's PASR from "Indicator Land" where interpretation is not required, just " take the signal", even though PASR appears to be a very simple method, a much higher level of understanding and a closer attention to detail, is required.

I have examined my Big Boss chart more closely, and am attaching an amended version. You were correct about the recent first HL and HH. I missed them, not careful enough!

Now I have more queries.

i) In spite of the my overlooking the presence of the new, recent HL and HH; both the 20 and 50 MA are down.

Which should take precedence, the MAs or the presence of the new HL, and the as yet unconfirmed HH for the purpose of determining the trend of the Big Boss?

ii) Are the new HL and unconfirmed HH, enough to confirm that the trend has changed from down to up? Perhaps the train is not on the turntable yet.

iii) While the June, or subsequent Monthly bars, are contained within the range of the May controlling bar, then there will not be a new confirmed HL or HH?

iv) If the June bar breaks the controlling bar on the downside, there must be a new LL. What does this say about the trend?

v) Am I correct in thinking that the next bar to break the May controlling bar on the upside, will become a new HH replacing the May bar, as yet unconfirmed as a HH, and also finish May as the controlling bar?

Thanks again,

Roger
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler" Albert Einstein
  • #12,548
  • Jun 2, 2010 10:01pm Jun 2, 2010 10:01pm
Quoting No1Optimist;3773177<br /> <br /> Thanks for taking the time to answer my query.<br /> <br /> You are correct about the apparent anomalies and contradictions, making decisions difficult for novices. <br /> <br /> Having come to Strat's PASR from &quot;Indicator Land&quot; where interpretation is not required, just &quot; take the signal&quot;, even though PASR appears to be a very simple method, a much higher level of understanding and a closer attention to detail, is required.<br /> <br /> I have examined my Big Boss chart more closely, and am attaching an amended version. You were correct about the recent first HL and HH. I missed them, not careful enough!<br /> <br /> Now I have more queries.<br /> <br /> i) In spite of the my overlooking the presence of the new, recent HL and HH; both the 20 and 50 MA are down. <br /> <br /> Which should take precedence, the MAs or the presence of the new HL, and the as yet unconfirmed HH for the purpose of determining the trend of the Big Boss?[COLOR=Blue

The MAs are a lesson all by themselves. It isn't just that they are pointed down. It's what are they doing in relation to each other. In this case, the 20 is pulling back towards the 50 indicating a slowing of downward momentum. Also the angle is no longer as steep to the downside, also a sign of slowing momentum. Lastly, price is drawing closer to the 20 and no longer pulling away...another sign of slowing momentum. Watch how price begins to bunch up in this area.

HH and HL will tell you a trend has changed before the MAs will.
[/color]
ii) Are the new HL and unconfirmed HH, enough to confirm that the trend has changed from down to up? Perhaps the train is not on the turntable yet.
Sure it is. The question is: will the new trend continue. It could reverse and begin creating LL and LH.

iii) While the June, or subsequent Monthly bars, are contained within the range of the May controlling bar, then there will not be a new confirmed HL or HH?
May isn't a 'confirmed' HH until June closes without breaking the high of May.

iv) If the June bar breaks the controlling bar on the downside, there must be a new LL. What does this say about the trend?
The trend might reverse. We don't speculate about that because it hasn't happened and we can only trade what the current situation is...HH and HL.

v) Am I correct in thinking that the next bar to break the May controlling bar on the upside, will become a new HH replacing the May bar, as yet unconfirmed as a HH, and also finish May as the controlling bar?
Correct. If June breaks to the upside then it breaks May but won't be confirmed until next month...if it gets confirmed then at all.

Thanks again,

Roger
.
  • #12,549
  • Jun 2, 2010 10:58pm Jun 2, 2010 10:58pm
Can you see the footprints of buyers since last quarter of 2008? They are trying very hard to turn the the train and take it to 102 station, though there are some issues on the road such as 92.30 and 94.50.
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  • #12,550
  • Jun 2, 2010 11:06pm Jun 2, 2010 11:06pm
Quoting mstandifer
After much research on the topic, I've finally decided to post this for those of you that still have the internal struggle of "your chart doesn't look like mine"

This will put it to rest once and for all...I promise.

1. A bar is a bar no matter the broker. It's simply a measurement of price over a certain period of time.

2. It doesn't matter if your bar doesn't look like my bar because we are trading 'types' of bars. These 'types' of bars exist on all charts regardless of the broker and regardless of whether or not yours coincides...
Marcus....
I believe this really does clear up the 'my bar - your bar' dilemma. Especially where you say: It's OK if your charts don't match Strat's or Blackeagle's or Alexandra's or Elitejets. Those are just examples. It doesn't mean your data isn't tradable. AND as you say: "Just [u]look for that scenario on your chart at some point in the future." Good stuff this.
  • #12,551
  • Jun 2, 2010 11:24pm Jun 2, 2010 11:24pm
Although attached is H4 tf, it shows clearly why USD has been struggling.

I have also attached the Big Boss chart.
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  • #12,552
  • Jun 2, 2010 11:58pm Jun 2, 2010 11:58pm
Which one is the "correct" chart?

There is something that is the same about each chart. They all "Look" different but they all tell the same story.
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  • #12,553
  • Jun 3, 2010 12:50am Jun 3, 2010 12:50am
Quoting mstandifer
.
Many thanks Marcus, the short paragraph you wrote about Moving Averages was really an important "light bulb" moment for me, and now for the first time the meanings and use of the MAs is crystal clear.

I have taken the liberty of paraphrasing and editing what you wrote, for my own education, and I would be grateful if you would check and point out any errors or misconceptions.

The MAs are a lesson all by themselves.

(in the case of a bearish trend........)

i) It isn't just that they are pointed down; it's what are they doing in relation to each other.

ii) If the 20 is pulling back towards the 50, this is indicating a slowing of downward momentum.

iii) When the angle is no longer as steep to the downside, this is also a sign of slowing momentum.

iv) If price is drawing closer to the 20 and not pulling away...this is another sign of slowing momentum. Watch how price begins to bunch up in this area.

HH and HL will tell you a trend has changed before the MAs will.
"Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler" Albert Einstein
  • #12,554
  • Jun 3, 2010 1:25am Jun 3, 2010 1:25am
Quoting No1Optimist
Many thanks Marcus, the short paragraph you wrote about Moving Averages was really an important "light bulb" moment for me, and now for the first time the meanings and use of the MAs is crystal clear.
Hi No.1Optimist and Marcus,

I thought I was getting along fine understanding trend. Then you mentioned tmanbone's "lightbulb" post...

He mentions April's bar being a hammer at the end of downtrend and boss and worker confirming change of trend.

Now it seems May was a shooting star and we are back in a downtrend.

My question: is a single Big Boss candle enough to change a trend? (In USDJPY we have HH and HL. So I guess that's enough confirmation).

Await further 'enlightenment'
  • #12,555
  • Jun 3, 2010 2:24am Jun 3, 2010 2:24am
Attached is a chart EURUSD showing my 2nd PASR trade.

The green dashed lines are for the initial SL, and TP. The blue dashed line is the extreme of the Monthly controlling bar, probably strong resistance. It should be noted that the entry, SL and TP were derived from a chart on another platform.

Sell stop for 2 micro lots placed on 23 May, and filled on 24 May.

PT1 for one position was reached on 25 May for a nice profit.

The SL on the remaining position was moved to BE.

The position has been left open and has made little progress for the last week.

Strat's posts 12518 and 12522 on page 835 illustrate my dilemma.

My question for the experienced traders on the thread, is, with the NFP being announced tomorrow, should I risk leaving the trade open to see what happens?

Alternatively, should I close the trade before the NFP announcement, at whatever profit is available.

My concern is that with the extreme volatility which sometimes occurs at NFP my BE SL may not get filled if the trade goes against me, and could result in a substantial loss.

It may be relevant that this is a demo trade.

Thanks for your consideration
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd short 3 June.jpg Size: 134 KB
"Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler" Albert Einstein
  • #12,556
  • Jun 3, 2010 3:22am Jun 3, 2010 3:22am
Quoting No1Optimist
Attached is a chart EURUSD showing my 2nd PASR trade.

The green dashed lines are for the initial SL, and TP. The blue dashed...
Not that we have incorporated moving averages into the equation of the Yen, I look and see the "rubber band effect" in the monthly, though I have seen it stronger.

That lovely dance that price plays with them.
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Spinner 'Tis in the Waiting.....
  • #12,557
  • Jun 3, 2010 3:29am Jun 3, 2010 3:29am
[quote=Raje$h;3773530
Hi No.1Optimist and Marcus,

I thought I was getting along fine understanding trend. Then you mentioned tmanbone's "lightbulb" post...

He mentions April's bar being a hammer at the end of downtrend and boss and worker confirming change of trend.

Now it seems May was a shooting star and we are back in a downtrend.
[COLOR=Blue]May wasn't a shooting star for USDJPY.[/color]

My question: is a single Big Boss candle enough to change a trend? (In USDJPY we have HH and HL. So I guess that's enough confirmation).
Sometimes, but the game changer was December's bar. However, be aware that just because the trend is now up doesn't mean it can't change. Base your trades on what is...not what might be.

Await further 'enlightenment'
  • #12,558
  • Jun 3, 2010 3:32am Jun 3, 2010 3:32am
Quoting No1Optimist
Many thanks Marcus, the short paragraph you wrote about Moving Averages was really an important "light bulb" moment for me, and now for the first time the meanings and use of the MAs is crystal clear.

I have taken the liberty of paraphrasing and editing what you wrote, for my own education, and I would be grateful if you would check and point out any errors or misconceptions....
that sums it up as I see it.
  • #12,559
  • Jun 3, 2010 5:11am Jun 3, 2010 5:11am
Hi No1O! As I understood,at this moment you are in profit!The first position hit TP and the profit was allready banked,and the second goes on (now in profit).Personally I would move the SL at entry point(at minimum),in order to let space for trade to develope.If the news goes against you and it will hit the SL,it is ok,because anyway you close with profit banked from first position and the second wasn't a loss(capital preservation),if the news goes for you,better.It is not important and no difference between demo or real.Bouth are your trade and your accounts.Bouth need the same seriously atitude.Thanks.
My humble opinion.
  • #12,560
  • Jun 3, 2010 6:16am Jun 3, 2010 6:16am
Mstandifer, How is 1 on your monthly a HH? I take it to be a LH. Where is the previous high?

Quoting mstandifer
quote=No1Optimist;
I am a novice in relation to many on this thread, having studied (and I think, mostly understood) from the beginning to page 702.

I have carefully checked your response against my own charts, and wish to make the following observations:

1) On the monthly, the May bar is the controlling bar, and made a LH (not HH as you say). Surely the May bar is the the "most current"?
[b][color=blue]Unfortunately, you might be missing the definition of a technical HH and HL. See the attached chart. The monthly is in fact making HH and...
[/quote]
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