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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #65,361
  • Jun 2, 2010 4:07pm Jun 2, 2010 4:07pm
I like these. Anybody else see this one? Not the best time of day but O lookie here! an I4B (or should I say an I5B)just finished printing as I was making my comments on the previous 4 hr bar. Weren't you all just talkin' bout those?

K.I.S.S.
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  • #65,362
  • Jun 2, 2010 4:14pm Jun 2, 2010 4:14pm
Quoting jarroo
I understand your downtrend bias, but the BIG DBLHC on the Weekly could be trend changer. It sure is big enough. Some clear Bullish PA at the 1.4500 would peak my interest.

Looking at COT and open interest also suggests sort of that everybody along with their mothers as well as second cousins, are already short. We all know what happens when everybody that wanted to sell have done so...

Then again my crystal ball isn't of the best brand.
  • #65,363
  • Jun 2, 2010 4:22pm Jun 2, 2010 4:22pm
Quoting KissFan
I like these. Anybody else see this one? Not the best time of day but O lookie here! an I4B (or should I say an I5B)just finished printing as I was making my comments on the previous 4 hr bar. Weren't you all just talkin' bout those?

K.I.S.S.

I'm with you Kiss-man.

So only take the long signal not the short of the I4B, correct?
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #65,364
  • Jun 2, 2010 4:26pm Jun 2, 2010 4:26pm
Quoting o990l6mh
Looking at COT and open interest also suggests sort of that everybody along with their mothers as well as second cousins, are already short. We all know what happens when everybody that wanted to sell have done so...

Then again my crystal ball isn't of the best brand.
Interesting take o990l6mh.

Any big divergences on the COT? Between the commericals and privates.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #65,365
  • Jun 2, 2010 4:31pm Jun 2, 2010 4:31pm
Quoting jarroo
I'm with you Kiss-man.

So only take the long signal not the short of the I4B, correct?
That is what I am looking for. YES!

K.I.S.S.
  • #65,366
  • Jun 2, 2010 4:32pm Jun 2, 2010 4:32pm
Quoting KissFan
That is what I am looking for. YES!

K.I.S.S.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #65,367
  • Jun 2, 2010 4:35pm Jun 2, 2010 4:35pm
Quoting jarroo
Interesting take o990l6mh.

Any big divergences on the COT? Between the commericals and privates.
Large private traders have not been more short in these last ten years and commercials likewise all time high on long net positions.

Notice the open interest as well, it's at an extreme as well which put together suggests a reversal may be impending.

Sooner or later there will probably be a large correction, but when? That's the 100 pip question.
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  • #65,368
  • Edited 7:01pm Jun 2, 2010 4:45pm | Edited 7:01pm
Quoting dan89
Hi guys, new here, I've been reading up on price action from various places and started reading through this thread, nearly finished one the summary ... i was just wondering if someone could help me analyse a trade that i thought was a good setup but ended up being the opposite. So the chart below shows a nice pinbar with a long nose and an open and close within the previous bar range, it is also in 'space' and has bounced of old support/resistance. These are the good points. But im strugling to identify why this would have been a not so good trade....
Nothing went wrong with this PB setup. Price went right where we thought it would go, previous bar High/Lows, PPZ levels, BRNs, etc.

Many we're hesitant due to the fact it was trading into a BRN, 1.5000.

So this setup did what we "knew" it would do. A classic J16 successful setup.

Welcome btw Dan.

Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #65,369
  • Jun 2, 2010 4:50pm Jun 2, 2010 4:50pm
Quoting o990l6mh
Large private traders have not been more short in these last ten years and commercials likewise all time high on long net positions.

Notice the open interest as well, it's at an extreme as well which put together suggests a reversal may be impending.

Sooner or later there will probably be a large correction, but when? That's the 100 pip question.

Thanks o990.

We'll let PA give the answer.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #65,370
  • Edited 5:33pm Jun 2, 2010 5:09pm | Edited 5:33pm
Quoting jarroo
I understand your downtrend bias, but the BIG DBLHC on the Weekly could be trend changer. It sure is big enough. Some clear Bullish PA at the 1.4500 would peak my interest.
EUR/AUD

I have been following this pair very closely.
Until this evening I was unsure whether the bearish trend was over. It has now just started to come down.

Price has continued down for months but during this time has episodes where prices goes up for between two days up to a week.
Price has gone down stepwise.

Following the big bullish price spike in mid May price promptly came down.

Last week/this week there has been a run where there has been a slight uptrend. This is not unusual but considering the gyrations in the bullish spike, it is reasonable to imagine sentiment has changed. However this evening this has started to upwind.
It is a little too early to say for sure but the price moves appear to be in line with those of the last few months, suggesting the down trend is still intact.

The Australian interest rates were unchanged last night so there is still a viable carry trade. Although the shine has seemingly worn off the commdollars to a degree, the Australian economy is plodding on steadily. There is trouble underneath it all but of course this is all relative.
This is in sharp contrast to the Eurozone where the PIIGS have gone to the dogs. There is also reports of Iran squaring up to sell euros and as sure as eggs are eggs if central banks of the likes of Brazil are publicly saying they support the euro, this implies to me things are getting rather desperate and the reassurance are in reality pretty half hearted.

Assuming the bear trend continues it is one where you go short immediately after a bull episode. Get in at the wrong time and it will move 100's of pips against you. The other way is to trade it. It progresses in what I will call a series of arches. With the pillars of the arch every so often drops down to a lower level. If you get into a rhythm it is quite possible but somewhat exhausting as underneath the apparent calm it is a volatile pair and when price decides to move it will travel fast.
  • #65,371
  • Jun 2, 2010 5:23pm Jun 2, 2010 5:23pm
Quoting six gun
I have been following this pair very closely.
Until this evening I was unsure whether the bearish trend was over.

Price has continued down for months but during this time has episodes where prices goes up for between two days up to a week.
Price has gone down stepwise.

Following the big bullish price spike in mid May price promptly came down.

Last week/this week there has been a run where there has been a slight uptrend. This is not unusual but considering the gyrations in the bullish spike, it is reasonable to imagine sentiment has changed....
Thanks six gun for your comments.

I'm not a fundy guy so this could have been written in Mandarin. I have heard of the PIIGS though. . .those crazy f'd up socialists. lol
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #65,372
  • Jun 2, 2010 5:43pm Jun 2, 2010 5:43pm
Quoting jarroo
Nothing went wrong with this PB setup. Price went right where we thought it would go, previous bar High/Lows, PPZ levels, BRNs, etc.

Many we're hesitant due to the fact it was trading into a BRN, 1.5000.

So this setup did what we "knew" it would do. A classic J16 successful setup.

Welcome btw Dan.

Jim

(could you remove your 1st attachment . .too big buddy)
Thanks for the reply. I did not even see that bar low lol. Also what does 'BRN' stand for ... 'Big Round Number' ?

Sorry about the picture size .. for some reason they just uploaded at that size (i used imageshack to host them, mabey thats the problem)

Dan
  • #65,373
  • Jun 2, 2010 6:48pm Jun 2, 2010 6:48pm
Saw this PB, but the bar size is not big enough to scream a reversal and there's a pair of confluencing monthly Fib at 0.82 which looks like it's attracted to, given the momentum of the current bearish trend.

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  • #65,374
  • Edited 11:12pm Jun 2, 2010 7:13pm | Edited 11:12pm
Quoting KissFan
That is what I am looking for. YES!

K.I.S.S.

Now we got a Double Inside Bar going. Looking better Rog.

l like the 1.4680 entry.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #65,375
  • Jun 2, 2010 7:27pm Jun 2, 2010 7:27pm
What a difference that different time zone can make Jarroo.

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  • #65,376
  • Jun 2, 2010 7:30pm Jun 2, 2010 7:30pm
Quoting fxeturn
Saw this PB, but the bar size is not big enough to scream a reversal and there's a pair of confluencing monthly Fib at 0.82 which looks like it's attracted to, given the momentum of the current bearish trend.
Short on a failure, bank much pips.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #65,377
  • Jun 2, 2010 7:31pm Jun 2, 2010 7:31pm
Quoting fxeturn
What a difference that different time zone can make Jarroo.

A little bit different, equal in my book.

I like the Eur/Gbp Daily PB too. I would like to see it hold and then break closer to london. If it does break now I'll wait and see where its at during the london session.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #65,378
  • Jun 2, 2010 7:34pm Jun 2, 2010 7:34pm
Any one seen Pinbar?

I would like him to demo this Weekly PB on the Nzd/Usd.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #65,379
  • Edited 8:09pm Jun 2, 2010 7:58pm | Edited 8:09pm
Quoting Pinbar
And just what do you think the "squiggly stuff is"?

Perhaps we need the "Squiggly stuff" because it is Price.



I am showing the price like this as it is the suggested manner in which to draw PPZ.

Now, my problem is not the squiggly stuff but which squiggly bit to not draw the PPZ on.

I hope you realize I was being sarcastic.

I think you may be over analyzing which is one of the most common ways traders fail.

If you listen to the guys who consistently make serious money around here and elsewhere they all pretty much just naked trade price action. No indicators, nothing. Some use MA's just to help them visualize but not indicate. I usually don't use anything other than major S/R. If I am putting all sorts of squiggly lines and 7 s/r lines and misc. other crap on there I am probably reaching for something that isn't there, ie. a high probability trade.

But whatever works for ya. I could be wrong.
  • #65,380
  • Jun 2, 2010 8:30pm Jun 2, 2010 8:30pm
Trade I took today (Demo)

GBP/CAD, entered @ break of 4H PB @ 1.5448.
Closed 50% @ + 30 pips.
Closed 25% @ + 195 pips.
Stop moved just above 150 MA

Comments on setup/management?
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