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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #65,261
  • Jun 1, 2010 6:08pm Jun 1, 2010 6:08pm
How do you tell the difference between a bearish down count channel, and a bullish flag?
Dr. C
  • #65,262
  • Jun 1, 2010 6:38pm Jun 1, 2010 6:38pm
Quoting six gun
Fibs are only relevant if someone draws them and then acts upon them.
Not entirely true, fibonacci numbers are a representation of growth in time. Even though it is a ideological theory, there is proof that some things in nature grow with this pattern, but only in perfect conditions. There are also many other growth patterns, not only fibonacci.

Because markets are just a bunch of people buying an selling, and people are part of nature, a fibonacci pattern can occur without us noticing it.

But well it is just a theory that works only perfectly when you dont add external factors. Here are some examples of fibonacci in nature
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  • #65,263
  • Jun 1, 2010 6:59pm Jun 1, 2010 6:59pm
Quoting emiliolopez
Not entirely true, fibonacci numbers are a representation of growth in time....
Nice photos - I don't believe the spray arching from the woman's hair to the water is other than Photoshop - but I like the photo for some reason.

Fibs work because molecules and crystals form structures in certain arrangements and patterns dependant on forces and bonds between them. There is sense to this relationship.

Traders cannot trade in an environment of chaos. So they create order. Acting and reacting to trendlines, pivot zones, price patterns and Fibonacci retracements.

A perfect way to test the true validity of Fibs would be to hack the platform retracement tools. I act and react to fibs, but if the tools were hacked to plot different retracement percentages, everyone would plot these and react to these phoney "Fibonacci numbers".
  • #65,264
  • Edited 7:19pm Jun 1, 2010 7:09pm | Edited 7:19pm
Quoting six gun
The big money in Forex is decided or at least is said to be decided on the longer time frames.
'Big money' is a pretty vague term. A swing trading hedge fund is going to have a different time horizon from a bank hedging currency risk who will have a different time horizon to the SNB.

Quoting emiliolopez
Not entirely true, fibonacci numbers are a representation of growth in time. Even though it is a ideological theory, there is proof that some things in nature grow with this pattern, but only in perfect conditions.
Your ideas intrigue me, and I wish to subscribe to your newsletter.

Quoting six gun
A perfect way to test the true validity of Fibs would be to hack the platform retracement tools. I act and react to fibs, but if the tools were hacked to plot different retracement percentages, everyone would plot these and react to these phoney "Fibonacci numbers".
Nothing magical about a quarter, a third and a half retracement of a move - but I guess it is easier to sell trading systems if you claim an association to magic numbers and Leonardo da Vinci

(if anyone *really* needs proof that these are just self reinforcing numbers, do the math and figure out whether 50.0% is a 'fib')
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #65,265
  • Jun 1, 2010 7:18pm Jun 1, 2010 7:18pm
Quoting joelcf


Nothing magical about a quarter, a third and a half retracement of a move - but I guess it is easier to sell trading systems if you claim an association to magic numbers and Leonardo da Vinci
agreed, very easy to eyeball the 50% of a move. Less lines, but if they help someone formulate a realistic trade plan I am all for it.
  • #65,266
  • Jun 1, 2010 7:19pm Jun 1, 2010 7:19pm
Quoting joelcf
'Big money' is a pretty vague term. A swing trading hedge fund is going to have a different time horizon from a bank hedging currency risk who will have a different time horizon to the SNB.
Hey this is J16 - longer time frames rule.

What I am saying here is do not forget the longer time frame.
The people at Barclays Capital will be aware of these, they will have strategies and look at relationship in the market that involve these. If you ignore them you are ignoring important elements that the market movers figure in when they decide to push the button
  • #65,267
  • Edited 7:31pm Jun 1, 2010 7:20pm | Edited 7:31pm
It certainly looks like the USD/CHF is forming a bull wedge. From the looks of the wedge it seems like it wants to retest the 1.0 VBRN again, but could be too early to tell though. Perhaps double bottoms were not enough and now it's heading for a triple bottom. 1.15 has been a powerful support before and it could be a good resistance as well. Swing high at bearish TL and hitting the 23.6 monthly Fib both suggest an impending bearish move. A BEOB is already trying to form in weekly, and divergences in both D1 and H4 all point to a bearish move. My final confirmation would be the weekly bar closes below 1.16 and is a bearish bar, better if it closes below 1.15.

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  • #65,268
  • Jun 1, 2010 7:25pm Jun 1, 2010 7:25pm
Gator posted this awhile back in the eu thread..we may have already cracked A BIG bull wedge.

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  • #65,269
  • Jun 1, 2010 7:29pm Jun 1, 2010 7:29pm
Quoting uraceulose
Gator posted this awhile back in the eu thread..we may have already cracked A BIG bull wedge.

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keep seling unless you see an uptrend.
dont look for the uptrend while price is ovbiously in a downtrend.
trend continues again and again.
reversal happens only once in a while.
good trading!!
  • #65,270
  • Jun 1, 2010 7:30pm Jun 1, 2010 7:30pm
Quoting trade price
keep seling unless you see an uptrend.
dont look for the uptrend while price is ovbiously in a downtrend.
trend continues again and again.
reversal happens only once in a while.
good trading!!
thank you sir. and will do!
  • #65,271
  • Jun 1, 2010 7:31pm Jun 1, 2010 7:31pm
Quoting uraceulose
Gator posted this awhile back in the eu thread..we may have already cracked A BIG bull wedge.

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Lines, lines and yet more lines.
They are like statistics. You can find a statistic to prove anything you want to.

Looking again at the chart you posted, there is a definite trendline from 2003 on the monthly chart.

Me thinks there is a downtrend in place.
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  • #65,272
  • Jun 1, 2010 7:33pm Jun 1, 2010 7:33pm
Quoting six gun
Lines, line and yet more lines.
They are like statistics. You can find a statistic to prove anything you want to.

Looking again at the chart you posted, there is a definite trendline from 2003 on the monthly chart.
not trying to prove anything..just giving you another BIGGER perspective. your 03 tl is on a chart of mine too...i have another chart goin back to the mid 70's on chf

edit: and to add..swiss maybe running out of bullets..or they maybe sick of throwing good money after bad
  • #65,273
  • Jun 1, 2010 7:37pm Jun 1, 2010 7:37pm
Quoting six gun
The people at Barclays Capital will be aware of these, they will have strategies and look at relationship in the market that involve these. If you ignore them you are ignoring important elements that the market movers figure in when they decide to push the button
may i ask you how do you know?
  • #65,274
  • Jun 1, 2010 7:54pm Jun 1, 2010 7:54pm
Quoting trade price
may i ask you how do you know?
Not that I have some inside information, but I used Barclays as the example, as I have a friend in Forex there.

Do you feel that the longer time frame currency movements are irrelevant to trading decision?
All the "long in the tooth" traders I have heard, pay particular attention to these time frames.

Saves getting shot up the a**e because you missed a 10 year trend that wasn't apparent on the tick chart.
  • #65,275
  • Jun 1, 2010 7:59pm Jun 1, 2010 7:59pm
Quoting six gun

Do you feel that the longer time frame currency movements are irrelevant to trading decision?
.
did i say that?
  • #65,276
  • Edited 10:08pm Jun 1, 2010 8:05pm | Edited 10:08pm
Quoting six gun
What I am saying here is do not forget the longer time frame.
The people at Barclays Capital will be aware of these, they will have strategies and look at relationship in the market that involve these. If you ignore them you are ignoring important elements that the market movers figure in when they decide to push the button
Amatuer traders make alot of assumptions about what 'the big boys' are doing. They are almost always wrong. Usually because they are beginning with the flawed premise that big money is a homogenous group with the same aims and horizons.

Unless people understand who the market players are, what they do and how they do it - well, you are better off just looking at the damn chart.

Quoting six gun
Saves getting shot up the a**e because you missed a 10 year trend that wasn't apparent on the tick chart.
When trading a 5m chart, I couldnt care less what the 10 year trend is. Let alone while trading a tick chart.

Same goes for an insto dealer trying to undercut the vwap for a client order and earn himself an Elise.

It's all a matter of perspective.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #65,277
  • Jun 1, 2010 10:07pm Jun 1, 2010 10:07pm
Quoting joelcf
Amatuer traders make alot of assumptions about what 'the big boys' are doing. They are almost always wrong. Usually because they are beginning with the flawed premise that big money is a homogenous group with the same aims and horizons.

Unless people understand who the market players are, what they do and how they do it - well, you are better off just looking at the damn chart.

When trading a 5m chart, I couldnt care less what the 10 year trend is. Let alone while trading a tick chart.

Same goes for an insto dealer trying to undercut the vwap...
Hey Joel how's it hangin' down under? Traders should just stick to their style and TF. I have begun to realise that it's a matter of expression.

Jimmy Rogers like LONG term trends. Others scalp, swing, etc. It's a matter of the trader. A noob mistake is to factor in everything... more noise, more mess.

It's up to the individual to sort out, esp in this business right? =)
All the big boys have different individual styles anyway. Let people think what they want to think.
I agree fully to the principles James and Mike advocate... they're the nutz, sound as anything, but my style's abit too deviant.. but it shows that the principles work and it's a matter of how the individual makes it his/her own.

Absorb what is useful, throw out what is useless and add what is specifically your own.

When you have to shoot, shoot right? At the end of the day, it's what puts a good % the account on a regular, consistent basis. That's all that really matters. I've avoided posting here lately...Either way, 1000pips still means nothing if you've got a notional 10 in size on. Unless the account's like $50 or something. LOL.

I always remember that Ryan said he's quite a shitty technical analyst but hey, he's rakin' it in constantly. The bottom line's the bottom line.

It's been awhile mate. Hope you're fairing well. =)
One Mind, Any Market
  • #65,278
  • Jun 1, 2010 10:11pm Jun 1, 2010 10:11pm
Anyways, could someone pse PM me when this thread hits page 2500?

I'll do the usual thing when it does.
One Mind, Any Market
  • #65,279
  • Jun 1, 2010 10:17pm Jun 1, 2010 10:17pm
Quoting Cyrus
Anyways, could someone pse PM me when this thread hits page 2500?

I'll do the usual thing when it does.
Don't you mean 4500?
  • #65,280
  • Jun 1, 2010 10:21pm Jun 1, 2010 10:21pm
Quoting Cyrus
Anyways, could someone pse PM me when this thread hits page 2500?

I'll do the usual thing when it does.
2500? We are already on page 4353?
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