Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

but dont the rules state that signal services arent allowed ?? Just asking..

I have been following you guys for many months, I like your trading style and appreciate your time and effort in teaching newbies like myself.
I look forward to your new thread, once FF has approved it, how do I subscribe to it, many thanks in advance
Kiwi

Excellant. I was wondering when this was going to happen. You have me as a member on opening as well. Good luck...

Very interesting development from some of the best traders around here, thanks. I hope it will include some of your COT analysis.

Best of luck going forward.

2 great traders and minds joining.
Required thread rating should not be a problem!
Lookin forward to that.
All the best,
Tuner

You leaving us for the dark side Luke? Don't forget your lightsaber in case you need to find your way back All joking aside, I wish you and Geppyg the best of luck. The thing is you don't need it so I send my best wishes and have no doubt that your joint venture will be very successful

Two great traders - best wishes for your new venture

Sahab:

You are the best I have ever seen, and I understand your trade logic. Count me in, and all the best.
HP

Your correct. The non commercial positioning is opposite of the commercials. That is because the commercials are simply hedging their commercial sales 0r purchases against price movement. For example, an oil deal worth 200 million needs to be hedged in the fx market to ensure they get the same money when the bill is settled maybe 90 days down the track. They simply cannot afford to take the risk of loss that currency movement may cause. They are not speculating and do not make a return from their positions. They simply lock in price for their commercial dealings.They can hold their positions indefinetly because it is hedged. The non commercials or large traders are speculators just like you and me except with bigger accounts. These include investment banks and hedge funds. Despite what most people believe about these traders, the fact is they are trading against each other and guess what? as you can see by their positioning in the C.O.T charts, most of them lose, just like traders here at FF or anywhere else. The problem with C.O.T is, just as you say, those traders and commercials have deep pockets so any strength or weakness revealed by the chart can take 1000 pips to show up in the price action. Extreme position is the thing to watch for most as it usually preceeds a market turn, it literaly has to. In the futures market from which the C.O.T charts are derived, there is a finite number of contracts and when the positioning is extreme it means there is no more free contracts left to buy or sell and the only way they can become available is by offloading current positions. This reverses price, sometimes a little and sometimes alot. When the EURO last collapsed from 1.55 ish C.O.T extreme position preceeded the move by only 3 days so was an excellent timely signal. Generally though, it is a guide only for our trading, another tool to assist with direction along with price action and news. Its worth persisting with until you get a handle on it so keep up the good work.

Just dropped in to wish shah the best with his venture. I think it is great to see FF traders of such calibre operating here at FF. It hasn't always been this way and it makes me proud to be a member of this progressive community

Hey Shahab, my best wishes to you and your team and colleagues. Make money and have a great time while at it

Good day,

I still have yet to receive anything from you Mr Rahmani.

@charron

Thank you

Yes, even I was thinking about this - 'trading against each other'.

I need to know something. When or how would you consider as non-coms., positions as extreme? [this might be a pretty stupid question but I would accept the fact].

And, as of current scenario, is there any significant thing to notice in the report (I could have missed)?

Thank you.

May as well throw this out there.

SSI: Retail Traders Leverage Build Short Interest in EURUSD, GBPUSD and GBPJPY
Monday, 31 May 2010 19:13 GMT
Written by John Kicklighter



SSI Details:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at 1.11 as nearly 53% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.27 as 56% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 5.7% higher than yesterday and 1.0% stronger since last week. Short positions are 20.7% higher than yesterday and 5.6% weaker since last week. Open interest is 12.3% stronger than yesterday and 101.3% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD losses.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.04 as nearly 51% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.27 as 56% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.7% higher than yesterday and 8.6% weaker since last week. Short positions are 32.4% higher than yesterday and 19.0% stronger since last week. Open interest is 14.7% stronger than yesterday and 116.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at 1.29 as nearly 56% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.70 as 63% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.9% higher than yesterday and 7.5% weaker since last week. Short positions are 32.4% higher than yesterday and 20.1% stronger since last week. Open interest is 12.6% stronger than yesterday and 110.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY losses.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 1.65 as nearly 62% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.69 as 63% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 1.2% higher than yesterday and 16.4% weaker since last week. Short positions are 3.6% higher than yesterday and 27.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 2.1% stronger than yesterday and 94.8% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at -1.31 as nearly 57% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.48 as 60% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 19.4% higher than yesterday and 6.3% weaker since last week. Short positions are 6.1% higher than yesterday and 27.6% weaker since last week. Open interest is 11.4% stronger than yesterday and 93.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF gains.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 1.30 as nearly 56% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.57 as 61% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 2.2% higher than yesterday and 15.1% stronger since last week. Short positions are 23.7% higher than yesterday and 5.0% weaker since last week. Open interest is 10.5% stronger than yesterday and 114.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.01 as nearly 50% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.09 as 52% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 12.3% higher than yesterday and 7.8% weaker since last week. Short positions are 4.4% higher than yesterday and 28.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 8.2% stronger than yesterday and 121.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at -1.08 as nearly 52% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.04 as 51% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 1.5% higher than yesterday and 5.3% weaker since last week. Short positions are 5.5% higher than yesterday and 28.5% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.5% stronger than yesterday and 115.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD gains.

How to Interpret the SSI? The FXCM SSI is based on proprietary customer flow information and is designed to recognize price trend breaks and reversals in the four most popularly traded currency pairs. The absolute number of the ratio itself represents the amount by which longs exceed shorts or vice versa. For example if the EURUSD ratio is 2.55, long customer orders exceed short orders by a ratio of 2.55 to 1. Conceptually similar to contrarian analyses using the CFTC IMM open position data or COT Report, the SSI provides an alternative approach that is both more timely and accurate in forecasting currency price movement. The SSI is a contrarian indicator that tells you how the market is weighted and where the trend may head. More long positions don't necessary suggest more confidence in the direction of the current trend. In general, when traders start having adverse movements against their position, many tend to increase the size of their position with the purpose to average down their entry price in one last attempt to recover from previous losses. However, the higher the number of short orders in a bull market the more dangerous is to take additional shorts because many of those traders who just entered the markets are also leaving their protective stop losses just above the current price action.

Hi
I am sorry, I must have missed out your email from the list of returns. Can you pl send me another email and I will reply to it asap

That's awesome Shahab, I look forward to it!

Hi everyone,

Thank you all for your warm comments.

I'd like to let you know that we've opened the new thread and we will start the trade calls and 600 pips count from 2nd of June.
You can follow the thread here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...75#post3766575


Wish you all happy trading

Is it safe to assume that GBP is displaying extreme short position by non-comms?

5 Years:

http://i50.tinypic.com/33xfs3k.jpg

1 Year:

http://i45.tinypic.com/25s06t4.jpg

Geppy,
Just to let you know, i replied to your earlier PM and your new PM as well but i guess u have me on ignore as i am unable to post into your threads as well and so u dont receive my PMs as well !!

Hi Kartik,

My Sinceare Apologies,
Have just applied the new setting.

Regards
Geppyg