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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #65,141
  • Edited 10:15pm May 30, 2010 10:09pm | Edited 10:15pm
Over the weekend I have analyzed the weekly and daily bars and my analysis of what I see on the charts is as under. I have analysed the following pairs ion the Interbank Fx feed:-
EU, UC, NU, UJ, GU, UCh, AU, EJ, EG, GJ, AJ, GCh.
Analysis:-
UC:- Weekly PB but not exactly a great looking one. Not sure whether this should be played for downside as the FTA (without buffer) is just abt 50 pips down.
NU :- Weekly PB at 38.2 Fib area, but closed below the RN 0.6800. Otherwise the PB seems playable. Daily bars are Double Top (if 3 pips difference can be accepted).
UJ:- Weekly IB in a sideways moving market. Not sure if this is playble.
GU:- Daily bars DT with 5 pips variance.
AU:- Weekly bars DT with 5 pips variance
EJ:- Daily PB but smallish and to be ignored.
GJ:- Weekly IB in a downward trending channel. Logically should be playing the breakout on top as PA has bounced off the bottom of the channel.
AJ:- Weekly IB

Other than the above signals, I do not see any clues / signals. ( May be something is there which my eyes cannot "see" even though I am eye balling the charts)

At this point of time I am inclined to play the NZD USD Pinbar and DT.

Comments from seniors solicited on the above.
Cheers,
Novice198

PS:- The problem with NU wkly PB and Daily DT is that I will be trading into the 365 EMA which is only 31 pips away. I guess I have to sit tight and look for another entry / setup as this seems to be risky.
  • #65,142
  • May 30, 2010 10:26pm May 30, 2010 10:26pm
Hello novice198,
it would be better if u post the respective charts too... as we all use different brokers/platforms that show different looking bars/patterns (not everyone has/use IBFX)
that way, the seniors can respond with more precision & details.
  • #65,143
  • May 30, 2010 10:45pm May 30, 2010 10:45pm
Quote
UC:- Weekly PB but not exactly a great looking one. Not sure whether this should be played for downside as the FTA (without buffer) is just abt 50 pips down.
All I see in favor of this one is it lines up with a PPZ. Bad location so easy pass in my opinion.
Quote
NU :- Weekly PB at 38.2 Fib area, but closed below the RN 0.6800. Otherwise the PB seems playable. Daily bars are Double Top (if 3 pips difference can be accepted).
See my comments regarding this one in previous posts.
Quote
UJ:- Weekly IB in a sideways moving market. Not sure if this is playble.
Definitely no in my opinion.
Quote
GU:- Daily bars DT with 5 pips variance.
How would you trade this?
Quote
AU:- Weekly bars DT with 5 pips variance
I do not see a double top.
Quote
EJ:- Daily PB but smallish and to be ignored.
This is not a PB. The open is in the middle of the bar. Also, the bar has nothing going for it location wise.
Quote
GJ:- Weekly IB in a downward trending channel. Logically should be playing the breakout on top as PA has bounced off the bottom of the channel.
This one only has the 78.6 fib going for it so the location is not good. If I did trade it, I would expect price to possibly reverse in the 135 area.
Quote
AJ:- Weekly IB
The only tradable one out of your list in my opinion. I'd expect price to possibly reverse around 80.00.

Scott
  • #65,144
  • May 30, 2010 11:32pm May 30, 2010 11:32pm
Quoting supremeChaos
Hello novice198,
it would be better if u post the respective charts too... as we all use different brokers/platforms that show different looking bars/patterns (not everyone has/use IBFX)
that way, the seniors can respond with more precision & details.
HI SC,

I did not want to clutter the thread. Next time I will post the screen shot of pair which has the best setup as per my analysis.

Cheers
Novice198
  • #65,145
  • May 30, 2010 11:46pm May 30, 2010 11:46pm
Novice198,
bro, the more charts to study & comment on, the better.
learning is not cluttering, imho.
so post as much as u want, we all learn from it.
  • #65,146
  • May 30, 2010 11:47pm May 30, 2010 11:47pm
Quoting phpscott
All I see in favor of this one is it lines up with a PPZ....
Hi Scott,

Noted your analysis. The AU pair as weekly DB and not DT as I mentioned earlier.
On the AJ if the price goes above the 38.2% daily fib level you expect the PA to touch the 50% Fib level i.e around 0.7990 area.
Have no idea how the DT on the Gu should be played, if it indeed has to be played.

Cheers
Novice198 (still a long loong way to go)
  • #65,147
  • May 31, 2010 1:45am May 31, 2010 1:45am
Quoting jarroo
Hey Pb.

The left eye is the previous bar low of the PB, in gold at the check mark on my chart. I like using fib levels as a confluencing tool, meaning if a fib level does not line up with a PPZ level or S/R level or BRN they just don't carry as much weight or strength by themselves.

phpscott analysis is spot on about the PB itself and the better locations that a PA setup we would like to see take place....


What the %#%#$%$#(*)$*)*)$.

I was under the obvious mistaken impression that the close of the previous bar and the open of the next bar were the eyes!!!

This is not the case!!!!!!!!!!!!! Better change my name to Dumbar!
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  • #65,148
  • May 31, 2010 1:55am May 31, 2010 1:55am
Quoting Pinbar
What the %#%#$%$#(*)$*)*)$.

I was under the obvious mistaken impression that the close of the previous bar and the open of the next bar were the eyes!!!

This is not the case!!!!!!!!!!!!! Better change my name to Dumbar!
It happens to the best of us. lol
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  • #65,149
  • May 31, 2010 2:06am May 31, 2010 2:06am
Quoting uraceulose
It happens to the best of us. lol
Attachment

Weird, How I totally mistook that after reading everything and watching the videos. LoL
  • #65,150
  • May 31, 2010 2:21am May 31, 2010 2:21am
Quoting Pinbar
Weird, How I totally mistook that after reading everything and watching the videos. LoL
lol, make sure to read the pb basics every so often. i still do it every few weeks when the market is closed on weekends. just as a refresher...there is absolutely no method that you will find in forex that is as solid as what is taught here. if an 80 pip stop seems unthinkable..you are trading far too much on a given trade based on your account size. you will never catch weekly/daily starting off w/o a decent size stop..this is why we demo. i'm a daytrader that's why I don't post too much here as far my actual live trading but believe that if you want a for sure way to beat the market, be patient..wait for A+ daily/weekly be/buob/PB...you will make money.
who gives a crap about being a "trader" and taking tons of "trades" if you're not making money. if @ the end of the month your down even a dollar..i would say most could sit back and say "IF IF IF(key word) I had only sat back and waited for ONE trade all month, I would have made money".

I know it's true for myself, between the amount of pairs that brokers let you trade, the amount of daily and weekly bars in a full month...I'll bet if managed properly it would be more often then not at least a few hundred(maybe more) pip trade. Now an 80 pip sl to start doesn't seem so crazy see?
  • #65,151
  • May 31, 2010 4:31am May 31, 2010 4:31am
I got short on the 30 min pin. We now have a one hour pin at BRN/PPZ and have a nice trendline break that indicates a potential drop.

Price bar is a B. Loication is A+.
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  • #65,152
  • May 31, 2010 4:37am May 31, 2010 4:37am
Quoting fxprocessor
I got short on the 30 min pin. We now have a one hour pin at BRN/PPZ and have a nice trendline break that indicates a potential drop.

Price bar is a B. Location is A+.

4 hr view.
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  • #65,153
  • May 31, 2010 4:51am May 31, 2010 4:51am
Quoting uraceulose
lol, make sure to read the pb basics every so often....

Well, I am at least managing to keep my eyes off of the H4 TF, this is a start.

Yes, I have learned to agree with the larger SL from looking at the daily, I may even suggest that there are many trades near PPZ and fibo retracements that would require 50 or less pips SL.

Thanks for the input.

I am off to watch more daily and weekly charts.
  • #65,154
  • May 31, 2010 5:25am May 31, 2010 5:25am
Quoting Pinbar
Well, I am at least managing to keep my eyes off of the H4 TF, this is a start.

Yes, I have learned to agree with the larger SL from looking at the daily, I may even suggest that there are many trades near PPZ and fibo retracements that would require 50 or less pips SL.

Thanks for the input.

I am off to watch more daily and weekly charts.
Pinbar,
I am also fairly new and want to keep a check on my trigger happy fingers. Let's help each other to look for your name sake and other setups in the daily and weekly charts.
Hopefully, UNITED we gain.

Cheers
Novice198
  • #65,155
  • May 31, 2010 6:35am May 31, 2010 6:35am
Quoting novice198
Pinbar,
I am also fairly new and want to keep a check on my trigger happy fingers. Let's help each other to look for your name sake and other setups in the daily and weekly charts.
Hopefully, UNITED we gain.

Cheers
Novice198

Sure, good idea.

I am right now experimenting with a method of drawing PPZ on the Monthly chart and I am using two floating weekly PPZ one GREEN for a long breakout the other RED for a possible SHORT breakout.

If these line up with fibos and trendlines, it may work.

May save me from drawing a birdcage.

AUD/USD looks like it may from a PB right off the monthly PPZ with fibo confluencMay run to the 38.2.

Of course we have to see it turn into a PB first.
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  • #65,156
  • Edited 7:33am May 31, 2010 7:15am | Edited 7:33am
I am long CADCHF off the inside bar at major round number. With the trend on this one. Open target would like to trail it if lucky enough to get a runner.

Edit: Killed the GBPUSD when price broke the round number. Avoided full bar loss. Smaller position size on that though as was only 1 hour timeframe and holiday in UK.

Full position size on this CADCHF though.
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  • #65,157
  • May 31, 2010 7:24am May 31, 2010 7:24am
Quoting fxprocessor
My GBPUSD trade is not looking great. Smaller position size on that though as was only 1 hour timeframe and holiday in UK.
I seen your post earlier. I thought there was a bit much to fight against in the preceding bars there.

Would be nicer if it lined up with that trend line you draw as well. ...Would have given it more oomph , IMO. ...Especially with the holiday happening.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #65,158
  • May 31, 2010 7:27am May 31, 2010 7:27am
Quoting Pinbar
Sure, good idea.

I am right now experimenting with a method of drawing PPZ on the Monthly chart and I am using two floating weekly PPZ one GREEN for a long breakout the other RED for a possible SHORT breakout.

If these line up with fibos and trendlines, it may work.

May save me from drawing a birdcage.

AUD/USD looks like it may from a PB right off the monthly PPZ with fibo confluencMay run to the 38.2.

Of course we have to see it turn into a PB first.
Yeah the birdcage thing you had going isn't the best for a clear mind. lol

It's good you are identifying all the potential trouble levels with them, but narrowing your lines down to the ones that will give the best probability trades is where it's at.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #65,159
  • May 31, 2010 7:32am May 31, 2010 7:32am
Quoting bundyraider
I seen your post earlier. I thought there was a bit much to fight against in the preceding bars there.

Would be nicer if it lined up with that trend line you draw as well. ...Would have given it more oomph , IMO. ...Especially with the holiday happening.
Hi Bundy. Agree with your thoughts. Yeah I killed the GBP when it broke the round number. Ony a tester trade size luckily. The original trigger was on the 30 min chart so very small loss.
  • #65,160
  • May 31, 2010 7:36am May 31, 2010 7:36am
Quoting Pinbar
Sure, good idea.

I am right now experimenting with a method of drawing PPZ on the Monthly chart and I am using two floating weekly PPZ one GREEN for a long breakout the other RED for a possible SHORT breakout.

If these line up with fibos and trendlines, it may work.

May save me from drawing a birdcage.

AUD/USD looks like it may from a PB right off the monthly PPZ with fibo confluencMay run to the 38.2.

Of course we have to see it turn into a PB first.
Also...

Just to point out something that bugs me.

You've drawn the fib correctly... But I hate it when they are like this (RED marked Fib Range,my chart)
...So much easier to trade when things line up with the full range (GREEN marked fib range, my chart)

Putting both down is alright (to get confluence), but you end up with something that can give you analysis paralysis when they don't relate well.

When they relate well the RED range fits the GREEN one all pretty like.

It's nice when an instrument you're trading just lines up with everything you throw at it nicely.
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Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
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