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  • #12,501
  • May 28, 2010 10:26pm May 28, 2010 10:26pm
Just checking in really to say I haven't been discouraged and run back to indicator-land / small time-frames even with its bright flashing lights and appeal of loose women and quick riches (in that order?) but have been patiently working with identifying SR on relevant charts and charting through history familiarising myself with PA at those points.

I still get a bit lost at times seeing trends on all timeframes but a trend is a trend is a trend and when you see something in real time like what we saw with some of the EUR crosses for the past 10 months or so it makes me realise what I should be looking for with regards to getting all my lines pointing in the same direction.

I hope everyone is achieving the goals relative to their be it making %s compounding orders on trends or learning to spot a SS at resistance.

Kind Regards to all on the thread and of course our Chief Train Spotter,

forexample
  • #12,502
  • May 29, 2010 4:53am May 29, 2010 4:53am
And E/j has grown a third leg!!
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Spinner 'Tis in the Waiting.....
  • #12,503
  • May 29, 2010 3:35pm May 29, 2010 3:35pm
Quoting LarryK
Nope I exited with some profit after I got back to my computer and saw the post from Strat suggesting that as soon as you realise you should not have entered the trade, you should exit, luckily by then I had a few pips in my favour but it could still have gone against me so I closed it.

Larry
Hi Larryhttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

Good outcome.

Happy trading http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Jideck
  • #12,504
  • May 30, 2010 4:59am May 30, 2010 4:59am
My first analysis today is GBPJPY. I am expecting the price to go up to 135ish where I will place my short with valid PA and the reason is:

BIG BOSS:BEEB covering last three months candles which is showing weakness of the buyers. Have found support at 78.6 fib and static support line near 127ish. Break below 125ish will be extremely bearish for ths pair.
BOSS:Again BOSS is down making LL & LH and way below 100ema & 250sma. Last weeks candle is IB and has provided better opportunity. WORKERrices have gone below 20 & 50 ma and heading towards 135ish where there is strong resistance. as in the boss it is making LL & LH.
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  • #12,505
  • May 30, 2010 5:14am May 30, 2010 5:14am
My second analysis today is EURAUD and I am waiting for the pair to give me opporunity to go short with valid PA near re-test of resistance & TL at 146ish or strong close below 142.50 ish and the reason to go short is:

BIGBOSS:Still is down after last months 1300 pips doji and can be seen in those TL I have drawn. After the highs of 15463 she has given back about 70% of its gain.
BOSS: is also down and the prices are way below 100ema and 250sma. last weeks close is half way below the candle before the last weeks.
WORKER:she has broken the support near 146 and closed just below 61.80 fib. Also she has closed again below the 20 & 50 as well. She could find support near 142.50ish which is 78.60 fib & short term TL.
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  • #12,506
  • May 30, 2010 12:54pm May 30, 2010 12:54pm
Quoting tao
Hi elPips
in addition to your analysis : price is at support and fib retracment 38.2 from the high in march.
I would not call a candle BEOB before it closes , because it can be anything in a few days.
My question:I see a hammer on the worker chart yesterday,
is this basic PASR or ATM ? as the boss is on immediate downtrend and price below the MA`s
Hi Tao,

I apologize for my late reply. I'll answer you based on what I see that day.

I would not call a candle BEOB before it closes , because it can be anything in a few days. -- I fully agree anything can happen...

My question:I see a hammer on the worker chart yesterday,
is this basic PASR or ATM ? as the boss is on immediate downtrend and price below the MA`s -- I honestly don't know if its an ATM or PASR, I see price at support (am seeing PASR then)and it could bounce but I'm not feeling ready to trade counter trend. Would you please tell me what you see?

Thank you.

elPips
  • #12,507
  • May 30, 2010 1:48pm May 30, 2010 1:48pm
The monthly shows an uptrend that has been in force since 2000 battling a downtrend that has been in force since 2008. There is one more day to go before the monthly close, but it is safe to say the bears are in control.

The weekly is just taking orders from its boss, but showing demand around 109 - 109.50. If we really could measure volume, I wonder if it would show that this is REAL buying or simply short covering.

Finally, the daily bar/candle created on Friday looks bearish but not enough for me to want to short at this level, especially with the weekly hinting at a possible reversal.

MS I'm a slow learner too. I get bored from time to time and have a habit of going to other threads to talk about market fundamentals (not CPI, PPI or that other gibberish, but mainly liquidity, the Canadian housing bubble, and corrupt governments around the world). I don't like to clog up this thread with my rantings, so I blabber on the Auslanco thread, the Pound thread, and the Euro thread.

I've been trying to focus like you said Strat. But from time to time, I don't mind talking the fundamentals that should matter: rates, liquidity (the games that central banks play), and the bond market (I swear the stock market is just a sideshow). I'll try to only blabber about this stuff when things are slow if that's okay with you.
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"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #12,508
  • May 30, 2010 2:12pm May 30, 2010 2:12pm
Hi everyone,

I agree with previous post by Flem26.
The 115.00 area looks important on my charts. So wait for PA there and see what happens.

Have a nice week everybody

R
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  • #12,509
  • May 30, 2010 6:13pm May 30, 2010 6:13pm
Quoting strat
NZDUSD ...
Hi mentor Strat,

It took me a while to reply, we have a work deadline this week. You might be out of the country by now but hopefully you'll have time to glance over my chart. I'd like to know if I did my drawings and analysis correctly. I'm showing below the revised NZDUSD chart incorporating all your inputs.

be careful understanding what constitutes a “bounce”. - I'll do my best to properly understand what constitute “bounce” at present I have a very basic understanding and would like to learn more. Will search the thread maybe its been discussed in the past.

Draw a TL from the high of Oct 09 to high of current month – Done with green thick lines. SR lines are not that many this time around :-)

Always check the current Fib retrace. - I've used the current Fib retrace coming off from 38.2% were price recently bounced and manage to stay above this fib line.

Re-visit how you are identifying your SR levels. PRICE is sat on strong support. Look at W/E June 05 09 and W/E Sep 05 08, Sep 12 08 and Sep 19 08 – Done. The new levels have been redrawn using dark orange thick lines

Measure the Fib retrace from W/E March 06 09 to Oct 23 09. --Done. I did use the weekly chart as I assume W/E means week ending. The Fibs was created from March 01, 2009 lows of .48920 to Oct. 18, 2009 highs of .7633

Fine tune Big Boss TL to Boss. --Done.

Put all this together and you should have lots of confluence! – Putting this all together these are the confluences I'm seeing:

1.Price bounced from strong monthly support (green thin line) and the orange originally from June 05, 2009 is at exactly at 38.2% fibs
2.There was a big candle last Thursday hitting the strong SR lines (orange). Friday candle failed to closed above previous day high.
3.The 20EMA is an added confluence making the level between .6835 and .6897 a very strong resistance area.

Fine tune the Big Boss/Boss TL to fit the Worker and use that. Your solid green TL is the root TL...--I've fine tuned the TL from BB/B to Worker.

...and while important, is not “in play” yet which should tell you something. --I'll take a stab on what the TL is telling me based on this revised NZDUSD chart. The solid green TL is pointing down beginning from my higher high of Oct 18, 2009 reference point to the current month's high (May 03, 2010) which clearly tells me that prices are continuing its trend down. Watch PASR very closely for any confluences along the way.

NO! Wait for the Worker to align itself with the Boss which in turn is aligning itself with the Big Boss. --My second time missing this very important alignment order. Never again sir!

The Boss

http://i689.photobucket.com/albums/v...ekly_may30.gif

The Worker

http://i689.photobucket.com/albums/v...aily_may30.gif

Plan of Action:
Teacher Strat, I do not know how to trade long or short the proper way yet but for the sake of my own learning I'd like to show you my simple trading plan on how I will trade NZDUSD if the opportunity present itself.

1. The weekly chart has formed a doji whose low have stopped exactly at support (on my IBFX data). Close near the lower TL lines.
2. Using the daily chart, I will carefully watch the PASR at the present levels.
3. I'm waiting for the this to happen, for the price to attempt another test near or at .6835 for a possible short opportunity with a stop loss just above .6897 target would be near next support .6585
4. If there is no retest at or around .6835 no trade should be executed. Wait for another time or look at other pairs.

Any advise/comment on my plan above will be greatly appreciated.

Thank you and happy trip!

elPips
  • #12,510
  • May 30, 2010 11:02pm May 30, 2010 11:02pm
This pair caught my eye this week.

Big Boss: With only one more day to close out the monthly bar it's looking likely that we will close as a doji. With this months huge volatility it's not surprising to see that the buyers took out the high of the previous months bar by just a few pips.

Boss: Price has been moving down the chart pretty well and has been respecting the 20 quite well. Last weeks bar has just been confirmed as a swing high and a SS off of major SR and the 20.

Worker: Supply at 2.1545 has been shown by the 500 pip bar that formed on Thursday. 20 and 50 are coming together.I have minor worker SR at 2.1036 on my charts that could produce a wobble but i am looking to see the lows around 2.0300 tested again.
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  • #12,511
  • May 31, 2010 1:17am May 31, 2010 1:17am
Slowly working my way through this wonderful thread. Many questions im my head which I'm sure are probably answered further into the thread. Apologies if this question has been answered further into "the path".

I am aware our analysis is done on the close of the New york candle, for that I have a demo account that closes 17.00 NYT, my live broker does not.

Would it make more sense to calculate and draw all support/resistance lines on the demo feed with new yorks candles and base all trades off those lines (since we are basing PA on these candles) rather than draw support and resistance on my live feed which has different closes?

Many thanks for such an amazing thread.

P
  • #12,512
  • May 31, 2010 4:31am May 31, 2010 4:31am
Quoting elPips
Hi mentor Strat,

It took me a while to reply, we have a work deadline this week. You might be out of the country by now but hopefully you'll have time to glance over my chart. I'd like to know if I did my drawings and analysis correctly. I'm showing below the revised NZDUSD chart incorporating all your inputs.

be careful understanding what constitutes a “bounce”. [color="Blue"]- I'll do my best to properly understand what constitute “bounce” at present I have a very basic understanding and would like...
Don't know just quite how to say it. Maybe the issue here is that you have a bias short. After that weekly hammer and bounce from a double confluence of Fibos at .6507 ish I'd be open to a long also.

FWIW
Spinner 'Tis in the Waiting.....
  • #12,513
  • May 31, 2010 12:50pm May 31, 2010 12:50pm
Quoting pckeys
Slowly working my way through this wonderful thread. Many questions im my head which I'm sure are probably answered further into the thread. Apologies if this question has been answered further into "the path".

I am aware our analysis is done on the close of the New york candle, for that I have a demo account that closes 17.00 NYT, my live broker does not.

Would it make more sense to calculate and draw all support/resistance lines on the demo feed with new yorks candles and base all trades off those lines (since we are basing PA on these...
Would it make more sense to calculate and draw all support/resistance lines on the demo feed with new yorks candles and base all trades off those lines (since we are basing PA on these candles) rather than draw support and resistance on my live feed which has different closes?


Yes this is what i do. I still draw boss SR on my live feed just to know where im at on both feeds but i base my trades from my demo feed which is NY close and my SR is fine tuned to the worker as well on my demo feed.
  • #12,514
  • May 31, 2010 7:45pm May 31, 2010 7:45pm
Big Boss: May candle has printed a BEEB making LL's and LH's. The May bar is the first to close below the 20 in the last 32 months! Price is sitting on major SR.

Boss: Price is below both MA's but being held up by support at .8440 where we also have fibo and TL confluence.

Worker: Worker chart clearly shows .8440 as a supply/demand zone. A break below this area and a retest is what i will be looking for to go short with a first stopping point in the .8218 area.
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  • #12,515
  • May 31, 2010 8:40pm May 31, 2010 8:40pm
Quoting Spinner
Don't know just quite how to say it. Maybe the issue here is that you have a bias short. After that weekly hammer and bounce from a double confluence of Fibos at .6507 ish I'd be open to a long also.

FWIW
Hi Spinner,

Yes, I'm bias with the short side.

I can also see your point, the probability of a counter trend long is there as long but because I'm still a noob I'd rather focus on trading only in the direction of the main trend.

elPips
  • #12,516
  • May 31, 2010 8:45pm May 31, 2010 8:45pm
Quoting CrudeCraig
Big Boss: May candle has printed a BEEB making LL's and LH's. The May bar is the first to close below the 20 in the last 32 months! Price is sitting on major SR.

Boss: Price is below both MA's but being held up by support at .8440 where we also have fibo and TL confluence.

Worker: Worker chart clearly shows .8440 as a supply/demand zone. A break below this area and a retest is what i will be looking for to go short with a first stopping point in the .8218 area.
Hi Craig,

On your monthly chart you have plotted the low of the fibs at 0.7690 is it a confirmed swing low?

elPips
  • #12,517
  • May 31, 2010 9:10pm May 31, 2010 9:10pm
Quoting elPips
Hi Craig,

On your monthly chart you have plotted the low of the fibs at 0.7690 is it a confirmed swing low?

elPips
Yes, It was in a trading range for about 7 months. The doji i drew my fibs from was confirmed as a swing low by the November bar.
  • #12,518
  • Jun 1, 2010 4:22pm Jun 1, 2010 4:22pm
Will she or won't she?
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,519
  • Jun 1, 2010 4:32pm Jun 1, 2010 4:32pm
So much stuff going on here.

R
78.6%
TLs
Rubber band

At the same decision point as EURUSD

Choose your weapon carefully - and only choose one of them!
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,520
  • Jun 1, 2010 4:49pm Jun 1, 2010 4:49pm
Sorry guys - had to put a stop to this run as I need to change some more $USD to GBP for our trip!
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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