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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #3,481
  • May 28, 2010 12:07pm May 28, 2010 12:07pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
Thank you patience,I didn't know that , thanks to Fitch I banked 5% into my equity in less than a min.
Good one!
I only played that on demo now. Down to the daily pivot and bouncing up again. Nice.
contract sizes on the Dax futures are still a a bit too big to play that comfortable for me. But working on that
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #3,482
  • May 28, 2010 12:09pm May 28, 2010 12:09pm
Quoting shahab8b
Does anyone know what has happened all of a sudden? I was about to close my boring shorts on indicies and call it a week then in one min they collapsed. It should not be just fib!!!
Fitch downgraded Spain
  • #3,483
  • May 28, 2010 12:11pm May 28, 2010 12:11pm
Quoting Tuner
Good one!
I only played that on demo now. Down to the daily pivot and bouncing up again. Nice.
contract sizes on the Dax futures are still a a bit too big to play that comfortable for me. But working on that

Ture, the contract size is heavy, but when it's green it makes your day
  • #3,484
  • May 28, 2010 12:12pm May 28, 2010 12:12pm
looks like a continnuation H&S
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,485
  • May 28, 2010 12:16pm May 28, 2010 12:16pm
Quoting Tuner
Good one!
I only played that on demo now. Down to the daily pivot and bouncing up again. Nice.
contract sizes on the Dax futures are still a a bit too big to play that comfortable for me. But working on that

Tuner , I noticed something about these indicies futures contracts,

If you want to predict their moves by technical the best one are, DJI and S&P 500

The worst one are DAX and NASDAQ.

I think I try to trade more DJ and S&P from now on. This DAX is a wild animal technically speaking.
  • #3,486
  • May 28, 2010 12:19pm May 28, 2010 12:19pm
Quoting shahab8b
Tuner , I noticed something about these indicies futures contracts,

If you want to predict their moves by technical the best one are, DJI and S&P 500

The worst one are DAX and NASDAQ.

I think I try to trade more DJ and S&P from now on. This DAX is a wild animal technically speaking.
S&P500 and Russel 2000 is what you want to look at as professional.
If S& goes down and Russel stays flat or higher than nothing going on. if both go down than there is a problem.
  • #3,487
  • Edited 12:33pm May 28, 2010 12:19pm | Edited 12:33pm
I took long E/U,

The confidence is not high but RRR is good , keep SL a bit below S at 1.2280
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,488
  • May 28, 2010 12:31pm May 28, 2010 12:31pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
Tuner , I noticed something about these indicies futures contracts,

If you want to predict their moves by technical the best one are, DJI and S&P 500

The worst one are DAX and NASDAQ.

I think I try to trade more DJ and S&P from now on. This DAX is a wild animal technically speaking.
Ya. Tried to play that wild animal today to understand it a bit.
My Scalping just according to RSI extremes worked pretty well.
But still wild:o (wild + contract size = dangerous for me )

btw... did you see that the Short on Dax Futures brings a positive rollover-swap? Seen that on my shorts last week and ask myself.. why is that? ....
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #3,489
  • May 28, 2010 6:46pm May 28, 2010 6:46pm
A/U H4 Two past situations and the current situation. The second white oval in each picture is of the yellow (21ema) crossing the black (35sma). I can also show this same type of thing on the Daily chart but the fact of the matter is that we are heading higher IMO.

History repeating itself... you can draw your own conclusions. Let me know if you have any questions.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #3,490
  • May 28, 2010 10:26pm May 28, 2010 10:26pm
Hi Patience,

My industry is directly related to the mining sector in Australia. From what I am hearing from sources is Mining tax wont pass through Senate. However, there will still be some sort of tax which would end up being a common ground between Govt and mining sectors.

Quite interesting few days/weeks ahead of us I must say...


Quoting Patience
What's your thoughts on that super tax your Goverment want to implement on the mining companies? Not very popular is it?
  • #3,491
  • May 28, 2010 10:29pm May 28, 2010 10:29pm
Charts attached and they are self explanatory.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,492
  • May 28, 2010 10:33pm May 28, 2010 10:33pm
Quoting puks
Charts attached and they are self explanatory.
In a way these three are co-related.

We have inverse H&S pattern in making in EJ. If that comes through, then classic H&S patten in EURUSD will fail and we could see a rally in EU towards 1.2670-1.2700 and in EJ we could go as high as 118-119. And that would mean AU could rally towards 87-88 cents as it would be 5th wave.

and if EURUSD classic H&S patten holds, we could then see a move towards 116 as many analysts are predicting. that means AU below 80 cents and EJ towards 104-105.

Great opportunities lie ahead of us in coming days/weeks.

Cheers
  • #3,493
  • May 29, 2010 10:41am May 29, 2010 10:41am
Quoting puks
Hi Patience,

My industry is directly related to the mining sector in Australia. From what I am hearing from sources is Mining tax wont pass through Senate. However, there will still be some sort of tax which would end up being a common ground between Govt and mining sectors.

Quite interesting few days/weeks ahead of us I must say...
Yep, I've heard grumblings. A couple of companies have already pulled staff from exploration duties and re-assigned them somewhere else in the world. Be interesting to see how many companies threaten to abandon Oz for more tax friendly countries. These super tax figures were cited as the reason for turning your budget deficit to a surplus by 2012 http://www.monstersandcritics.com/ne...ble-quick-time

I've had a squiz at your charts. I'm not sure about those shampoos because they should be a top reversal pattern in an uptrend. The inverse shampoo I can understand but I'm not really into this pattern much anyway. There was a really big discussion on the EUR thread once as to whether there was a shampoo. E/U in fact broke up so it was invalid but it put me off this pattern because I think some people look too hard for it.

Can't be bothered analysing anything because everything is screwy and just jumping around in this news driven environment. Don't know what the big deal about Spain's downgrade was. I thought it was expected.

Anyway, some funnymental reading attached.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Market_Strategy_Weekly_28_May.pdf   752 KB | 412 downloads
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #3,494
  • May 29, 2010 2:23pm May 29, 2010 2:23pm
yeh oh well. It could be.
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  • #3,495
  • May 30, 2010 2:39pm May 30, 2010 2:39pm
from an Elliott wave prospective, we are in substantial levels for both bulls and bears!

in GBPUSD, if 1.4450 "minor" S holds, then we are heading to 1.4720! otherwise breaking that level will open a window to retest 14225, and possible 1.4100

also in all USD & JPY pairs,

chart is attached
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,496
  • Edited 3:29pm May 30, 2010 3:16pm | Edited 3:29pm

Below is the 1 yr chart for AUS$ and it looks bit confusing to me:


http://i45.tinypic.com/ubv3c.jpg


What I find here is that the commercials does exactly opposite to the noncommercial. Look at the huge uptrend from July 2009 to Nov 2009 a leap of almost AU$ 13 !!

Now, throughout this, the commercials kept shorting the AU$ - doubling their short position from 35k to almost 75k!!

Whereas, the noncomm., were holding the opposite (Long) positions.

What I observe is that comms are truly doing something called - "Sell High & Buy Low".

But, looking at their deep pockets, I (nano speculator) could get insane nurturing huge amount of negative balance in my a/c. Hence, I would prefer to go with the non-comms.

Only outstanding points I noticed are the areas when there was a major difference in interests between the comms & non-comms. In Jan, the coms increased their short positions significantly whereas the non-comms increased their Long positions. Both of them doubled their market positions.

Similar incidence could be found in the month of April 2010. I guess these are extreme positions and indicates something.

I hope experienced members could help out and provide more information on how to profit from such incidence or market situations.

The COT index for the above chart is as follows:

http://i45.tinypic.com/23vff9s.jpg

Thank you
merda taurorum animas conturbit
  • #3,497
  • May 30, 2010 8:11pm May 30, 2010 8:11pm
@desifxtrader,

AFAIK,

What commercials do is irreleavent to us (the retail traders). They generally take opposite position to large traders. They are banks and other financial services who provides foreign exchange to business and anyone who needs FX in order to do day today activities. (for eg. you need USD because you are visiting US for holidays or a business need euro to pay vendor in france).

What is more important to us is position of Large traders. As you can see from the chart, they were long during the AUD uptrend and now they are trending down. This indicates that majority of them are closing the long position and now turning short.
  • #3,498
  • May 30, 2010 8:44pm May 30, 2010 8:44pm
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...pm_mrP1s&pos=1
  • #3,499
  • May 30, 2010 9:33pm May 30, 2010 9:33pm
G'day all,

Hope you have a wonderful weekend.

I'd like to let you know that GyppyG and I have decided to join hands and open a new thread. The mission of the new thread is to provide high probability trade calls on daily and weekly bases. With regard to the purpose of the new thread it should be placed on the Commercial Section. It should be mentioned that with regard to the FF regulation;the thread will start at Under Evaluation forum in Commercial Section.After it gets the required Thread Rating it will be moved to Commercial Forum.So we would appreciate your comments and thoughts after we initiate the thread.When we start the thread (it will happen before 2nd of June) you will find it with the name of:

600 Pips a Month with Shahab and GeppyG
  • #3,500
  • May 30, 2010 9:36pm May 30, 2010 9:36pm
Quoting shahab8b
G'day all,

Hope you have a wonderful weekend.

I'd like to let you know that GyppyG and I have decided to join hands and open a new thread. The mission of the new thread is to provide high probability trade calls on daily and weekly bases. With regard to the purpose of the new thread it should be placed on the Commercial Section. It should be mentioned that with regard to the FF regulation;the thread will start at Under Evaluation forum in Commercial Section.After it gets the required Thread Rating it will be moved to Commercial Forum.So we would...
Sounds Fantastic. I look forward to subscribing to your new thread!
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
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