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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #3,461
  • May 28, 2010 7:13am May 28, 2010 7:13am
Quoting shahab8b
Hi Reza,

I dont get what you are saying, I've got this chart and I dont see what you mentioned regarding Spec, Large in 08. It seems pretty much the same to me, only I see the difference for the last week. I suggest you go through all my COT post once again. I've posted lots of them.Try to get an idea of how positioning show us the large trend, for instance E/U turned short in Large since Nov,Dec 09 while A/U stayed long. If some one only took a trade on E/A short he/she would be rich by now. (the best trade might come out when you see different...
Shahab, I think you need to check with Cot Index 13 weeks, What you attached is the net positions.
Still I don't have much information on this stuff and I sent a post to get help and you correct me if you see mistakes
  • #3,462
  • May 28, 2010 7:23am May 28, 2010 7:23am
Quoting shahab8b
Hi mate,

How has trading treated you this week?
hey mate,

trading was quite good for 3 days. been trading extremely small lot sizes but got stopped out with you in AJ and GU trade.

Might consider shorting AJ against 78, good RRR and then shorting GJ against 133.50, targetting 130 and below.

Basically I gave away all gains but still in tiny profit since I started this new account.
  • #3,463
  • May 28, 2010 7:25am May 28, 2010 7:25am
Quoting trade4pip
Shahab, I think you need to check with Cot Index 13 weeks, What you attached is the net positions.
Still I don't have much information on this stuff and I sent a post to get help and you correct me if you see mistakes

I read you mentioned buying and selling at your post, right? If that's the case you need to look at net positioning, COT index tells you nothing about buy/sell, it is only good to see the extreme positioning in one side.
  • #3,464
  • May 28, 2010 7:30am May 28, 2010 7:30am
Quoting puks
hey mate,

trading was quite good for 3 days. been trading extremely small lot sizes but got stopped out with you in AJ and GU trade.

Might consider shorting AJ against 78, good RRR and then shorting GJ against 133.50, targetting 130 and below.

Basically I gave away all gains but still in tiny profit since I started this new account.

So you are at profit at your new account, that's good. I'm sure you will get all the money lost in a couple of months, just dont trade large size, one step at a time is the key.
  • #3,465
  • May 28, 2010 7:45am May 28, 2010 7:45am
Quoting shahab8b
So you are at profit at your new account, that's good. I'm sure you will get all the money lost in a couple of months, just dont trade large size, one step at a time is the key.
I was up quite a bit, using extremely small sizes but gave away all the gains y'day.

This time around i intend to follow MM rules so hopefully I wont get wiped out again :-)

cheers
  • #3,466
  • May 28, 2010 7:53am May 28, 2010 7:53am
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
Hi Tuner, I think market is in buy mode. I've got a short on DAX on 50 fib ,still the same price after one day. But I prefer to see it at 61 fib, when we get there the confidence for a short will be high, then we will go all-in short
Hi Shahab,
Agree. If we get up there confidence will be pretty high.
But I yet have to decide if it's gonna be all-in.. hehe

Today I am testing some scalping strategies on my demo-account.
Lookin at RSI extremes on the M1 chart. Some pairs pretty much respect the 70 and 30 lines and bounce pretty nice.
Not planning to become a scalper but still interesting
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #3,467
  • May 28, 2010 8:03am May 28, 2010 8:03am
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting puks
I was up quite a bit, using extremely small sizes but gave away all the gains y'day.

This time around i intend to follow MM rules so hopefully I wont get wiped out again :-)

cheers
Hi puks,

Hope you are doin fine!
Goin with the extremely small lots is what I have done as well now for the last 2 weeks already. After my losses beginning of the month. It may take some time to really recover in terms of account-size.
But it is a good thing to bring back confidence.
With the huge swings we have seen now even by playing the small lotsizes the profits can be sweet. I plan to keep to the small lots for another week or so and then go back to a "normal" MM.
Let's fight our pips back!
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #3,468
  • May 28, 2010 8:03am May 28, 2010 8:03am
Quoting puks
Hi Patience,

long time...how are you doing?

AJ is struggling to recapture 78 handle and AUD is struggling to break .8560-80 area.

If that doesn't happen tonight during US session, expect a big drop in both next week and weeks after.

Watch out for 91.70 in UJ, 8570 in AU.
Hey Puks - Ain't Nothin' Goin' on but the Rent (you're probably too young to remember this song - just been wasting my day searching You Tube for all those old skool classics)

AJ can be forgiven for not recapturing 78 today. We did do a 400 pip day yesterday and it is up 600 pips from it's lows this week so it can have a rest to ease those short term overbought conditions. Yeah, that 0.8570 area was good support previously. Are you not a raging AUD bull anymore?

Good to see you are back on the horse and making progress
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #3,469
  • May 28, 2010 8:53am May 28, 2010 8:53am
Quoting jackm1
Long euro 1.2300, SL=1.2260 TP=1.2340

This trade was taken last night from hourly chart 50% fib indecision candle.

Could have made more but going into long weekend, don't want to end up with bag holding, and I like to enjoy my beer with my friends and all.

No stress on weekends, so sirre billy bob.......
  • #3,470
  • May 28, 2010 9:00am May 28, 2010 9:00am
Quoting shahab8b
I read you mentioned buying and selling at your post, right? If that's the case you need to look at net positioning, COT index tells you nothing about buy/sell, it is only good to see the extreme positioning in one side.
Shahab, I made mistake by mentioning buying and selling, the index was going up and down were the better words. But my main point was something else that I hoped you could address it. But thanks for your time.
  • #3,471
  • May 28, 2010 9:25am May 28, 2010 9:25am
Quoting Patience
We fickle retail traders are flip flopping on E/U and G/U on almost a daily basis. Long, short, long, short - must be time for a trend change

SSI: EURUSD Ratio Flips Following 22% Decline in Shorts
Thanks Pati cheers.
  • #3,472
  • May 28, 2010 9:30am May 28, 2010 9:30am
I probably need to change that title because I see a shift in fundamentals. My outlook for the global economy has changed and I think we are just in the middle of unwinding the carry trades.

Another reason is strong A$ has hurt our exports, GDP growth will be slower next week and concerns about PIIGS are only a phone call away :-)

So all in all, I am seeing this as a retrace of the big move down of the past few weeks.

I am bullish US$ against (and in order), GBP, EUR and AUD. This is valid for next 2-3 months (US summer)

cheers and have a good weekend :-)


Quoting Patience
Hey Puks - Ain't Nothin' Goin' on but the Rent (you're probably too young to remember this song - just been wasting my day searching You Tube for all those old skool classics)

AJ can be forgiven for not recapturing 78 today....
  • #3,473
  • May 28, 2010 9:31am May 28, 2010 9:31am
You got it right buddy. Confidence and 1% equity gain a day is all I am looking for. Although, must admit, its quite easy to make them with micro lots in these wild swings.

cheers buddy and good luck.



Quoting Tuner
Hi puks,

Hope you are doin fine!
Goin with the extremely small lots is what I have done as well now for the last 2 weeks already. After my losses beginning of the month. It may take some time to really recover in terms of account-size.
But it is a good thing to bring back confidence.
With the huge swings we have seen now even by playing the small lotsizes the profits can be sweet. I plan to keep to the small lots for another week or so and then go back to a "normal" MM.
Let's fight our pips back!
  • #3,474
  • May 28, 2010 11:21am May 28, 2010 11:21am
Quoting trade4pip
Isn't it too fast to decide? Markets seems doesn't have enough momentum.
Well it was. closed.
  • #3,475
  • May 28, 2010 11:44am May 28, 2010 11:44am
Quoting Tuner
Hi there Shahab,
Hope you are doin fine. You think that one is ready for the next leg down already? Or "just" a bounce from the 50 fib down to area of weekly and daily pivot (around the 5900) ?

by the way. Are you still Short on Gold? ranging up there for almost 3 days now.

50 fib again.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dax10.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #3,476
  • May 28, 2010 11:52am May 28, 2010 11:52am
Quoting puks
I probably need to change that title because I see a shift in fundamentals. My outlook for the global economy has changed and I think we are just in the middle of unwinding the carry trades.

Another reason is strong A$ has hurt our exports, GDP growth will be slower next week and concerns about PIIGS are only a phone call away :-)

So all in all, I am seeing this as a retrace of the big move down of the past few weeks.

I am bullish US$ against (and in order), GBP, EUR and AUD. This is valid for next 2-3 months (US summer)

cheers and have...
Yeah, that drop in AJ no doubt wiped out a few hoping the 76xx area was going to hold again. I don't quite know what to make of it yet. AJ likes to throw out these 1,000 odd pip corrections. I was thinking A/U would head to the 0.76xx area just based on average yearly range. What's your thoughts on that super tax your Goverment want to implement on the mining companies? Not very popular is it?

Hopefully summer won't be boring and ranging. I don't particularly mind which way it goes - as long as it moves.

Quoting puks
1% equity gain a day is all I am looking for.
Is that all? Shucks, I'm such an underperformer.

Spain just lost their AAA credit rating.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #3,477
  • May 28, 2010 11:52am May 28, 2010 11:52am
Does anyone know what has happened all of a sudden? I was about to close my boring shorts on indicies and call it a week then in one min they collapsed. It should not be just fib!!!
  • #3,478
  • May 28, 2010 11:54am May 28, 2010 11:54am
Quoting shahab8b
Does anyone know what has happened all of a sudden? I was about to close my boring shorts on indicies and call it a week then in one min they collapsed. It should not be just fib!!!
Hey Shahab - Fitch downgraded Spain to AA+ from AAA. Don't worry - one day it will be USA's turn I see they are doing a lot to cut their budget and implement austerity measures - lol
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #3,479
  • May 28, 2010 11:58am May 28, 2010 11:58am
Quoting Patience
Hey Shahab - Fitch downgraded Spain to AA+ from AAA. Don't worry - one day it will be USA's turn I see they are doing a lot to cut their budget and implement austerity measures - lol

Thank you patience,I didn't know that , thanks to Fitch I banked 5% into my equity in less than a min.
  • #3,480
  • May 28, 2010 12:00pm May 28, 2010 12:00pm
Quoting shahab8b
Thank you patience,I didn't know that , thanks to Fitch I banked 5% into my equity in less than a min.
Nice one They like to do these late Friday surprise annoucements don't they. Have a good weekend all.
Nothing worth having is easy.
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