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AUD/USD

  • #21,901
  • May 27, 2010 10:02pm May 27, 2010 10:02pm
Quoting Pair-me-up
Thanks....
It is nice to see that someone on here actually has learned some of the fundies and less of a gambler. I am still trying to learn more fundies to merge them with my TA. Lately all of the politics and the wolf crying from Politicians in the currency market is driving me bonkers.
Are you serious? You actually believe in the "fundamentals", the numbers the govt puts out etc? Gotta be kidding me right? This is the same RBA and ECB who hiked rates into '08 and then scrambled to cut them at the fastest pace ever outside of any normal procedure shortly after.

How's this for a fundamental statistic: Big 4 banks in Australia are so leveraged into homeloans than all it would take to wipe 100% of shareholder equity in CBA and WBC out is for house prices to decline 6.6%YoY.

I will stick to my analysis thanks, and ignore the "fundamentals". Call it gambling if you like, I make my living from it.
  • #21,902
  • May 27, 2010 10:53pm May 27, 2010 10:53pm
How obviously know a heck of a lot more about trading than I do. Where did you find out the info on the Banks with the home loans in Aud?
Can you submit a link?

Thanks bro.
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #21,903
  • May 27, 2010 11:19pm May 27, 2010 11:19pm
Quoting Pair-me-up
How obviously know a heck of a lot more about trading than I do. Where did you find out the info on the Banks with the home loans in Aud?
Can you submit a link?

Thanks bro.
There is no link. You need to use your brain and a spreadsheet. Work out total homeloans as % of CBAs or WBCs asset book. Then compare that to shareholder equity (market cap might do if you're lazy). Then figure out what a 1% decline in mean asset value (operating under the assumption that the mean asset value is roughly similar to mean home value - which it is) does to the asset book. Then a 2% decline, then a 3% decline, etc etc.

It will become apparent very quickly to you.
  • #21,904
  • May 27, 2010 11:44pm May 27, 2010 11:44pm
i am a new trader in aud us. i took a short at .8440 hoping it would come down to .8220 can any one give their view point as to which direction this lady is heading.
  • #21,905
  • May 27, 2010 11:52pm May 27, 2010 11:52pm
I don't know how to do all that spreadsheet and math formula % stuff that you know how to do.

I have a willing brain, however, I need a point of reference to learn from. However, thanks for your feed back.
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #21,906
  • May 28, 2010 12:04am May 28, 2010 12:04am
Quoting Pair-me-up
I don't know how to do all that spreadsheet and math formula % stuff that you know how to do.

I have a willing brain, however, I need a point of reference to learn from. However, thanks for your feed back.
Everything you need is contained within the Annual reports and half yearly results of the stocks in question.

http://www.commbank.com.au/about-us/...s/default.aspx
http://www.commbank.com.au/about-us/...s/default.aspx

I am just using CBA as an example - but it is certainly a good one IMHO.
  • #21,907
  • May 28, 2010 12:19am May 28, 2010 12:19am
Thanks I saved it to my favorites.


In the last few hours or more the Aud/Usd has only gone down roughly 25~30 pips.

Kind of scares me when the PA is like that. Makes me think that it might just sky rocket up. The 4h shows over sold but it seems like it won't budge from where it has been for quite awhile now.
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #21,908
  • May 28, 2010 12:24am May 28, 2010 12:24am
Quoting Nomi1
i am a new trader in aud us. i took a short at .8440 hoping it would come down to .8220 can any one give their view point as to which direction this lady is heading.
For me this lady go up.... and strongly. we could have a retracement to the PP (0.84165) but if not breached, it could be a perfect buy entry point.

Btw we are friday...and the last day of the month so anything could happend
  • #21,909
  • May 28, 2010 1:51am May 28, 2010 1:51am
Peter,

Thanks for the welcome to the site, and for the link as well.

This thread was a decent read as well from the 08 crash.

I have to agree with sinner, I'm short .8465 and will be bringing in the Calvary if it gets to .8560. Will have to build on a trend down if it doesn't get that high, maybe with some the Yen cross as well.

GL trading everyone, be safe.
  • #21,910
  • May 28, 2010 2:38am May 28, 2010 2:38am
Ascending triangle.. breakout 8529-30?

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  • #21,911
  • May 28, 2010 2:54am May 28, 2010 2:54am
making lower high peaks last 2 hours on 1M. UK might push it to 86 (where I'll re-enter again), but I'm counting on a retrace back down first.
  • #21,912
  • May 28, 2010 3:11am May 28, 2010 3:11am
Quoting JanPoko
Can I suggest?
0.9260
tell me you're not kidding me? are you serious ? what's your basis?
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #21,913
  • May 28, 2010 3:15am May 28, 2010 3:15am
Quoting fivedollar
making lower high peaks last 2 hours on 1M. UK might push it to 86 (where I'll re-enter again), but I'm counting on a retrace back down first.
86 is very key - previous long term support. It could bounce off and tank again but watch out in case it closes above today and resumes its carry trade status.
  • #21,914
  • May 28, 2010 3:28am May 28, 2010 3:28am
Quoting doblece
Technical analysis is not mere gambling but what has been called "an educated guess"... Every day that passes I am more convinced that price action is mostly computer driven, and fundies provide (or not) the spikes that crank the action to the next level, up or down.

But there's an underlying predetermined broader pattern, on one side, as a result of the interaction of human greed and fear, mass psychology, needed equilibrium (this is why I mainly trade the reversion to the mean) and some random events to spice it up so it doesn't get too boring....
you are not rambling my friend, maybe to less knowledgeable or less experienced you might but i find what you've said very revealing and convincing because i for 1 felt the same i do trade what they called noise - high volatility period on 5 or 1 minute time frame... i'm not scalpper because i let my winner run until tired and cut my losser very short and quick.... thanks.

be good and be safe.

Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #21,915
  • May 28, 2010 3:30am May 28, 2010 3:30am
Quoting doblece
Don't get me wrong: technical analysis is not per se a magical spell.
It's just high end statistics. Probable outcome without any bias, for overall situation might turn around at any moment.

It's like carrying an umbrella if you see some grey clouds on the sky, just in case it might rain. An if-then-else condition. Being prepared to react should any of the eventualities occur, but it should not be used for predicting, though it also could be.

Total focus on the NOW, without the interference of judgement (opinions) but with the aid of...
so true!!!!
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #21,916
  • May 28, 2010 3:50am May 28, 2010 3:50am
Quoting doblece
Don't get me wrong: technical analysis is not per se a magical spell.
It's just high end statistics. Probable outcome without any bias, for overall situation might turn around at any moment.

It's like carrying an umbrella if you see some grey clouds on the sky, just in case it might rain. An if-then-else condition. Being prepared to react should any of the eventualities occur, but it should not be used for predicting, though it also could be.

Total focus on the NOW, without the interference of judgement (opinions) but with the aid of...
you are so learned my friend and thanks for sharing here withus your valuable insights i will treasure this
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #21,917
  • May 28, 2010 4:12am May 28, 2010 4:12am
Quoting Caravanpark
86 is very key - previous long term support. It could bounce off and tank again but watch out in case it closes above today and resumes its carry trade status.
what are you talking about? i'm lost. do you have a clue of what you're talking about? just wondering
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #21,918
  • Edited 7:57am May 28, 2010 7:31am | Edited 7:57am
Quoting dongsky
what are you talking about? i'm lost. do you have a clue of what you're talking about? just wondering
Here, showing up with some friends.
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  • #21,919
  • May 28, 2010 8:45am May 28, 2010 8:45am
Quoting sinner-
Not convinced of this rally in the Aussie.

Expecting a move below 0.8 rather than any test of resistance. Selling a few small lots here, will sell more on the way down.
Can't be bothered with this trade anymore, enjoying cable too much as usual. Banking shorts here for +40ish.
  • #21,920
  • May 28, 2010 8:54am May 28, 2010 8:54am
My positions still in play
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=21705
AUD " Your blood is mine " LOL
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