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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #3,401
  • May 27, 2010 8:05am May 27, 2010 8:05am
Hi Shahab,

Thanks for your great forum.

I found cot index 13 weeks very useful on AUD/USD but when we consider speculators. Actually what I found by looking at the chart was that speculators even play more important role moving market than larges.
Most of the time speculators and larges are in the same direction but when there is a disagree I found somewhere that speculators won the competition.

For example see AUD/USD during 14 Nov~21 Nov 2008.
What's your idea?

I got your contents very useful and it is the best forum I have found being around forex factory for a year.

Thanks,
Reza
  • #3,402
  • May 27, 2010 8:21am May 27, 2010 8:21am
E/U

I'm looking for a clear direction, first we need to get ride of this triangle, above 1.2350 will open more upside.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Spot FX (mini) EUR_USD (1).png Size: 28 KB
  • #3,403
  • May 27, 2010 8:27am May 27, 2010 8:27am
Quoting shahab8b
E/U

I'm looking for a clear direction, first we need to get ride of this triangle, above 1.2350 will open more upside.
agree
  • #3,404
  • May 27, 2010 9:08am May 27, 2010 9:08am
Quoting trade4pip
Hi Shahab,

Thanks for your great forum.

I found cot index 13 weeks very useful on AUD/USD but when we consider speculators. Actually what I found by looking at the chart was that speculators even play more important role moving market than larges.
Most of the time speculators and larges are in the same direction but when there is a disagree I found somewhere that speculators won the competition.

For example see AUD/USD during 14 Nov~21 Nov 2008.
What's your idea?

I got your contents very useful and it is the best forum I have found being around...
Hi Reza,
Thank you for your comment. I always use Large Inst positioning for my analysis, but there are more people using commercial data. If you look at Spec and find something significant you can share it with us.Post the chart form timingchart.com and show us what you think.
  • #3,405
  • May 27, 2010 9:12am May 27, 2010 9:12am
Looks like PA is ignoring all S/R levels today
  • #3,406
  • May 27, 2010 9:30am May 27, 2010 9:30am
Long Cable has been taken at 1.4435, SL=1.4315
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Spot FX (mini) GBP_USD (4).png Size: 33 KB
  • #3,407
  • May 27, 2010 10:33am May 27, 2010 10:33am
Quoting shahab8b
Guys, try to get boarding for long E/U and A/U, use wide stop as they will be good for daily chart trades
I am long @ 1.2194 and so far + 125 pips. Where do you foresee a TP point based on the daily long term chart?

If I look at the 1h and 4h I would say now as price is touching resistance

Thanks
  • #3,408
  • May 27, 2010 10:51am May 27, 2010 10:51am
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
E/U

I'm looking for a clear direction, first we need to get ride of this triangle, above 1.2350 will open more upside.
Hi there Shahab...
right. My Long from last night (from 1.22) looked pretty nice. Again stopped out due to my trailing stop of 120pips. So ended with +20 on that one.
Same with the short on U/CHF. Should overthink my use of trailing stops or just don't use them with the current market conditions.
still too choppy for that.

Closed most of my other positions last night, when they came back from the reds (A/J and CAD/J) as I got unsure about them as well.

Only 2 small trades left at the moment:
Long A/U (from 0.8150) +300 now
Short U/CAD (from 1.0725) +200 now

both around the weekly pivots at the moment. Would be the right level to take part of the profits...but I only got the small rest of the positions open.
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #3,409
  • May 27, 2010 11:22am May 27, 2010 11:22am
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting mahsam
1st tp reached at +30 stop loss at b/e on other 2 lots. next target is 86.40 for a +60 pips, after hitting will move stop loss to +30 pips on the remaining 1 lot


Mahsam

Hi there mahsam,
Guess your remainng 2 positions ended at BE..?!

Your first TP level was actually just some pips below the weekly pivot as well as daily R3.
As you often see bounces from those lines you might consider them on your setups.
Other possibility: if you see we are just below such a line you can wait for a break and retest of it.
(But you shouldn't be "afraid" to miss the trade in case we don't see a retrace)
Still you ended with nice 30 pips. So nothing lost.

Regards, Tuner
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cad_jpy_h1.gif Size: 16 KB
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #3,410
  • May 27, 2010 11:37am May 27, 2010 11:37am
Quoting Tuner
Hi there mahsam,
Guess your remainng 2 positions ended at BE..?!

Your first TP level was actually just some pips below the weekly pivot as well as daily R3.
As you often see bounces from those lines you might consider them on your setups.
Other possibility: if you see we are just below such a line you can wait for a break and retest of it.
(But you shouldn't be "afraid" to miss the trade in case we don't see a retrace)
Still you ended with nice 30 pips. So nothing lost.

Regards, Tuner
Hi Tuner,

Yea the other 2 ended at b/e. but still got a nice +30 very quickly too. like you say all green pips are welcome, so no complaints!

Mahsam
  • #3,411
  • May 27, 2010 12:07pm May 27, 2010 12:07pm
short A/j at 76.92 sl= 25, TP 76.20

Reason: fib 38.2%
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,412
  • May 27, 2010 12:07pm May 27, 2010 12:07pm
Quoting shahab8b
Hi Reza,
Thank you for your comment. I always use Large Inst positioning for my analysis, but there are more people using commercial data. If you look at Spec and find something significant you can share it with us.Post the chart form timingchart.com and show us what you think.

Shahab I just have learned the cot analysis from you. So I may do mistake but here are my observations:
Please see AUD/USD 13 weeks cot index on timing chart; specs + larges(I have attached the image)

1- look at the duration between Oct 3,2008~Oct 24, 2008; Larges were buying but Speculators were selling and market strongly moved down. Also see how the 13 weeks index for specs shows a reverse point.

2- Nov 7, 2008 ~ Nov 21, 2008, Larges were buying but Specs were selling and it moved market to another reversal point.

3- Feb 26, 2008 ~ May 6, 2008, Larges were buying but Specs were selling and it moved the market down and registered another reversal point.

4- Jun 5, 2009 ~ jul 17, 2009 see how Specs led the market to a reversal point, Larges looked like followers.

5- See how Specs bought from Nov 6 2009~Nov 20, 2009 and made a top reversal point when Larges were selling.

The best reversal points seems are the ones both Specs & Larges are agreeing with it. But it seems Specs are moving the market and larges are following them mostly.

What do you think?

Thanks,
Reza
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,413
  • May 27, 2010 12:14pm May 27, 2010 12:14pm
Quoting shahab8b
Long Cable has been taken at 1.4435, SL=1.4315

1st Long Cable closed at 1.4550 (+115 pips), 2nd SL> B/E
  • #3,414
  • May 27, 2010 12:16pm May 27, 2010 12:16pm
Quoting Tuner
Hi there Shahab...
right. My Long from last night (from 1.22) looked pretty nice. Again stopped out due to my trailing stop of 120pips. So ended with +20 on that one.
Same with the short on U/CHF. Should overthink my use of trailing stops or just don't use them with the current market conditions.
still too choppy for that.

Closed most of my other positions last night, when they came back from the reds (A/J and CAD/J) as I got unsure about them as well.

Only 2 small trades left at the moment:
Long A/U...
Excellent trading Tuner, well done . When you are doing great you MUST become extra careful. Remember Warren Buffet Rules: Rule No#1 Never lose money, Rule#2: Never forget Rule No#1.
  • #3,415
  • May 27, 2010 12:19pm May 27, 2010 12:19pm
Quoting Bouzies
I am long @ 1.2194 and so far + 125 pips. Where do you foresee a TP point based on the daily long term chart?

If I look at the 1h and 4h I would say now as price is touching resistance

Thanks

Well done . TP close to previous R at 1.2387
  • #3,416
  • May 27, 2010 12:28pm May 27, 2010 12:28pm
Quoting shahab8b
short A/j at 76.92 sl= 25, TP 76.20

Reason: fib 38.2%

The trade doesn't look good, but I dont change my SL, if I do all my RRR and the Probability approach trading will be affected.

Remember the only way to beat the market is set High Probability trades (let's say more than 60%) and good RRR (lets say Return/Risk >1.5-2
  • #3,417
  • May 27, 2010 12:33pm May 27, 2010 12:33pm
At the moment there is a setup for the RSI extreme strategy (see post 2715 page 181 by Shahab) on AUDUSD and AUDJPY. Both to go Short.
  • #3,418
  • May 27, 2010 12:40pm May 27, 2010 12:40pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
Excellent trading Tuner, well done . When you are doing great you MUST become extra careful. Remember Warren Buffet Rules: Rule No#1 Never lose money, Rule#2: Never forget Rule No#1.
Ya.. Some would call it "no balls" but I prefer it that way.
(Just don't think of what how my profits would look now if I kept all the positions)
Gonna keep Warren Buffets rules in mind

btw. currently lookin for a possible target for my Long on the Dow (S&P trade was closed for some profits) Dow running free.
Current levels beein resistance before. If we clear those now we might even see some more upside...
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #3,419
  • May 27, 2010 12:44pm May 27, 2010 12:44pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting Tuner
Current levels beein resistance before. If we clear those now we might even see some more upside...
...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dow.gif Size: 17 KB
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #3,420
  • May 27, 2010 12:48pm May 27, 2010 12:48pm
Quoting Tuner
...

I think there is some resistance going on at the neckline, why dont you take profit on all those sweet pips. There will be a chance to go long and short later on.

If you wanna keep it target the S>R level just before 50% fib, a bit below your current TP level.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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