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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #3,381
  • May 27, 2010 12:55am May 27, 2010 12:55am
Quoting tradoholic
HI Shahab,
Here is my take on the astrological aspect of the share market for today. I am loading up DJ at current price of 9882, will add ASX200 later on today, limit entry 4210. Going long A/U, Keeping my short in GBP, and E/U. Also I am long USD/JPY from 89.91. These are all purely on Astrological charts. If anybody wants full details and explanations, pl email me on [email protected]

Hi,
I read your astrological comments with great interest. Any further info much appreciated. Have emailed you. I trust I wont be receiving more emails back regarding 'cosmetic surgery' lol Cheers.
  • #3,382
  • May 27, 2010 1:30am May 27, 2010 1:30am
currently short covering ahead of the long weekend
  • #3,383
  • May 27, 2010 3:58am May 27, 2010 3:58am
Hi Shahab,
Just looing in to see how the trades are going. DJ, AU/US and US/JPY are doing as planned. Just lifted SL to to 9982 on DJ, B/E on JPY and exited my longs on AUD. Still short EU. but stopped out of GBP. Looking for another entry now. I think Dow will touch 10200 tonight ( or today in your time). I hope you dont mind me sharing my strategy and trades here....
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #3,384
  • May 27, 2010 4:09am May 27, 2010 4:09am
Quoting tpaulbeaumon
Hi,
I read your astrological comments with great interest. Any further info much appreciated. Have emailed you. I trust I wont be receiving more emails back regarding 'cosmetic surgery' lol Cheers.
Hi tpaulbeaumon,
Thanks for the comments. I will email you back with the information you wanted by tomorrow. I just logged in to check up on my trades and am switching the computer off till morning ( sydney time). Will either be shocked or surprised.
( If i do get a heart attach I might need that cosmetic surgery after all).
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #3,385
  • May 27, 2010 4:48am May 27, 2010 4:48am
Quoting shahab8b
G/U,

Short at 1.44, sl=1.4550

Stopped -150 pips
  • #3,386
  • May 27, 2010 4:50am May 27, 2010 4:50am
Quoting shahab8b
A/J short has been taken at 74 sl=75.5
Stopped -150 pips
  • #3,387
  • May 27, 2010 4:52am May 27, 2010 4:52am
Quoting jackm1
Patience, do these really work, one time I examined their effect after the posting and found them more wrong within two to three days time frame, than right.

But anyways, thanks for posting, and please keep posting. I will tally these again early next week with Markets to see if these are what is being predicted
I think the Sentiment Index is a bit like marmite - you either love them or hate them. I, like tpaulbeaumon, like to see how my fellow traders are placed. Given the current volatility and abnormality in the market, I'm not sure they are of particular help at the moment but I still find it interesting to see what the masses are backing.

Just as an example, there are still more traders long on A/U than short yet they haven't been adding to their long positions because these are traders that are stuck at higher levels hoping for it to go back up. So because there are more long than short, it indicates more A/U losses but you really need to look at the details because this ratio is probably going to remain fairly constant until A/U breaks that 0.8070 low. Are they adding to their long positions or are there more traders now going short?

I've been reading this sentiment index for quite some time. I know it sounds a little weird but sometimes I can look at the sentiment index and predict where the market is going to go without even looking at a chart depending on how extreme the ratios are.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #3,388
  • May 27, 2010 4:58am May 27, 2010 4:58am
Quoting shahab8b
A/J short has been taken at 74 sl=75.5
What are you doing shorting my baby? I can see why you did from the chart. I went to bed because I couldn't watch it sinking anymore as I had placed some more longs and then awoke this morning to see this. I count myself lucky on this occasion. Total turnaround. Not even sure what has happened overnight after US indices went red in last half hour, I thought Asia was going to be a bloodbath. Need to do some catch up.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #3,389
  • May 27, 2010 5:04am May 27, 2010 5:04am
Quoting tradoholic
Hi Shahab,
Just looing in to see how the trades are going. DJ, AU/US and US/JPY are doing as planned. Just lifted SL to to 9982 on DJ, B/E on JPY and exited my longs on AUD. Still short EU. but stopped out of GBP. Looking for another entry now. I think Dow will touch 10200 tonight ( or today in your time). I hope you dont mind me sharing my strategy and trades here....

I see that, great trades . I'd be happy to have your ideas here.Keep us posted on astrological signs.
  • #3,390
  • Edited 5:20am May 27, 2010 5:08am | Edited 5:20am
Okay, very interesting reading this morning. Traders are now piling in short on A/U, G/U, E/U etc and not adding to long positions. We get big drops and the retail traders are finally getting with the programme so what does the market do - reverse on them of course.

Oooooppppps, it was me copying the wrong statistics. This should be the right one. Last night's index was all wrong. Man, I'm losing it ....

SSI: EURUSD Ratio Flips Following 31% Jump in Shorts
Thursday, 27 May 2010 09:57 GMT
Written by Michael Wright

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:

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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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SSI Details:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.01 as nearly 50% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.39 as 58% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 6.5% lower than yesterday and 15.1% stronger since last week. Short positions are 31.1% higher than yesterday and 2.4% stronger since last week. Open interest is 9.3% stronger than yesterday and 109.4% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -1.04 as nearly 51% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.16 as 54% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 6.3% lower than yesterday and 11.1% weaker since last week. Short positions are 12.3% higher than yesterday and 37.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 2.4% stronger than yesterday and 106.8% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at 1.22 as nearly 55% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.36 as 58% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 4.3% lower than yesterday and 15.2% weaker since last week. Short positions are 7.0% higher than yesterday and 55.4% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.5% stronger than yesterday and 95.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY losses.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 2.16 as nearly 68% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.42 as 71% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 1.9% lower than yesterday and 1.1% weaker since last week. Short positions are 9.7% higher than yesterday and 58.9% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.5% stronger than yesterday and 109.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at -1.25 as nearly 55% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.36 as 58% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 4.2% higher than yesterday and 28.5% stronger since last week. Short positions are 4.8% lower than yesterday and 11.2% weaker since last week. Open interest is 1.0% weaker than yesterday and 99.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF gains.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 1.44 as nearly 59% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.11 as 53% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 12.1% higher than yesterday and 24.9% stronger since last week. Short positions are 13.8% lower than yesterday and 21.3% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.2% weaker than yesterday and 90.8% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at -1.04 as nearly 51% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.25 as 56% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 3.7% lower than yesterday and 10.2% weaker since last week. Short positions are 24.6% higher than yesterday and 84.3% stronger since last week. Open interest is 8.9% stronger than yesterday and 107.3% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD gains.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at 1.02 as nearly 51% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.59 as 61% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 23.2% lower than yesterday and 9.1% weaker since last week. Short positions are 19.4% higher than yesterday and 58.1% stronger since last week. Open interest is 6.7% weaker than yesterday and 99.8% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD losses.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #3,391
  • May 27, 2010 5:18am May 27, 2010 5:18am
Hi Shahab,

Just went long on c/j see attached chart! entry at 85.80 sl 50 pips!
3 lots entered with 30-60-90 tp's. will close one lot at +30 and move stop to b/e on the rest!


Mahsam
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,392
  • May 27, 2010 5:24am May 27, 2010 5:24am
Quoting Patience
What are you doing shorting my baby? I can see why you did from the chart. I went to bed because I couldn't watch it sinking anymore as I had placed some more longs and then awoke this morning to see this. I count myself lucky on this occasion. Total turnaround. Not even sure what has happened overnight after US indices went red in last half hour, I thought Asia was going to be a bloodbath. Need to do some catch up.

G'day patient,
I wanted to hedge my long E/U and A/U trades because I wasn't sure about the direction but that wasn't a good idea.
  • #3,393
  • May 27, 2010 5:28am May 27, 2010 5:28am
Quoting shahab8b
G'day patient,
I wanted to hedge my long E/U and A/U trades because I wasn't sure about the direction but that wasn't a good idea.
Wow, I closed way too early on A/J. Heading for multi-month support @ 76.20 area (and weekly pivot). Now turned resistance? We will see.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #3,394
  • May 27, 2010 5:29am May 27, 2010 5:29am
Quoting mahsam
Hi Shahab,

Just went long on c/j see attached chart! entry at 85.80 sl 50 pips!
3 lots entered with 30-60-90 tp's. will close one lot at +30 and move stop to b/e on the rest!

Mahsam
1st tp reached at +30 stop loss at b/e on other 2 lots. next target is 86.40 for a +60 pips, after hitting will move stop loss to +30 pips on the remaining 1 lot


Mahsam
  • #3,395
  • May 27, 2010 5:34am May 27, 2010 5:34am
Quoting Patience
Okay, very interesting reading this morning. Traders are now piling in short on A/U, G/U, E/U etc and not adding to long positions. We get big drops and the retail traders are finally getting with the programme so what does the market do - reverse on them of course.
.
I think that's a good SSI again this time. They should be buying E/U, A/U ...

Take a look at S&P500 futures, the trend will reverse, from now on, short USD and JPY will be a good trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,396
  • May 27, 2010 5:36am May 27, 2010 5:36am
Quoting Patience
Wow, I closed way too early on A/J. Heading for multi-month support @ 76.20 area (and weekly pivot). Now turned resistance? We will see.
Yea, your baby will be favorite from now on
  • #3,397
  • May 27, 2010 5:38am May 27, 2010 5:38am
Quoting shahab8b
G'day patient,
I wanted to hedge my long E/U and A/U trades because I wasn't sure about the direction but that wasn't a good idea.
I've also had daily Jurik RSX cross ups on A/U and A/J but because of the volatility I'm looking to see how accurate these signals are. Either way, I'm going to be careful shorting. Sentiment index is now indicating US$ losses as well (I've posted the correct one now). And we do have that gap on USDX at 85.51/61 area.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #3,398
  • May 27, 2010 5:39am May 27, 2010 5:39am
Quoting mahsam
1st tp reached at +30 stop loss at b/e on other 2 lots. next target is 86.40 for a +60 pips, after hitting will move stop loss to +30 pips on the remaining 1 lot


Mahsam

Nice trades, well done
  • #3,399
  • May 27, 2010 5:42am May 27, 2010 5:42am
Quoting Patience
I've also had daily Jurik RSX cross ups on A/U and A/J but because of the volatility I'm looking to see how accurate these signals are. Either way, I'm going to be careful shorting. Sentiment index is now indicating US$ losses as well (I've posted the correct one now). And we do have that gap on USDX at 85.51/61 area.

That's true, no short for now. All indicies futures have developed the same pattern as I posted for S&P.
  • #3,400
  • May 27, 2010 5:45am May 27, 2010 5:45am
Quoting shahab8b
That's true, no short for now. All indicies futures have developed the same pattern as I posted for S&P.
Now I am going to go and find out what happened overnight to produce this miraculous turnaround.
Nothing worth having is easy.
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