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  • #21,881
  • May 27, 2010 1:23am May 27, 2010 1:23am
yeah it did retrace to 8300 from 8330 and now its rallying up strongly with 8330 looking like the new support for a little while.

tonight looks to be an up night (based on higher low patterns for most currencies throughout the day) and could be a big one too as the bulls have been dying to burst through. I'm looking to enter a long at 8300.
  • #21,882
  • May 27, 2010 2:48am May 27, 2010 2:48am
Quoting doblece
Now on a shorter time span point of view, we could be having a H&S forming on hourly charts. I'll be watching the price action at around 8303 which has been a level of strong consolidation all the last week, and if so we could be hunting for a triple bottom before the retracement for EW correction leg 4, or eventually break lower to test round number 8000 and correct or break and continue the dwindling fall much lower.

Else we could already be on the bullish side towards 8500-8600 if 8400 is broken.

doblece, thanks for the excellent info.
  • #21,883
  • May 27, 2010 3:09am May 27, 2010 3:09am
Quoting M504
Where is the ideal price to get in short in the next week?
go to the chart, the market will reveal it to you. learn to rean it.
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #21,884
  • May 27, 2010 3:10am May 27, 2010 3:10am
Quoting fivedollar
yeah it did retrace to 8300 from 8330 and now its rallying up strongly with 8330 looking like the new support for a little while.

tonight looks to be an up night (based on higher low patterns for most currencies throughout the day) and could be a big one too as the bulls have been dying to burst through. I'm looking to enter a long at 8300.

are you in the trade? just wondering
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #21,885
  • Edited 4:16am May 27, 2010 4:05am | Edited 4:16am
Quoting M504
Where is the ideal price to get in short in the next week?

Welcome M504,
I notice this is your first post, congratulations, you’re in.
Stick around, read the thread, watch the price action PA. But more important than anything else, be careful when you trade…look after your money.
This thread is also well worth reading.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...=1#post3622436
  • #21,886
  • May 27, 2010 4:54am May 27, 2010 4:54am
Quoting dongsky
are you in the trade? just wondering
a real pro will be in and out I guess. Being casual, I don't have the luxury to scalp -- I'm still preferring to wait for a short opportunity.

I won't consider a short until 84, the H1 200 MA with a tight stop loss.
  • #21,887
  • May 27, 2010 5:15am May 27, 2010 5:15am
Quoting fivedollar
a real pro will be in and out I guess. Being casual, I don't have the luxury to scalp -- I'm still preferring to wait for a short opportunity.

I won't consider a short until 84, the H1 200 MA with a tight stop loss.
it's very good to know some pro is willing to share his insights here i'm so glad. what price you're eyeing for short entry?
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #21,888
  • May 27, 2010 5:51am May 27, 2010 5:51am
Quoting dongsky
what price you're eyeing for short entry?
Can I suggest?
0.9260
  • #21,889
  • Edited 4:10pm May 27, 2010 4:00pm | Edited 4:10pm
Looks like price is heading to 161.8 extension of last up swing. It is now struggling at 138.2 extension.

Should it rise further and confirm this, the following chart indicate my views for a "correction of the correction" on H4:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud jueves h4.gif Size: 19 KB


Should it retrace from here (0.8500), levels would be 8405 - 8360 - 8325 for a bounce back up.

Or... through 80 and down to 0.78 - 76 - 73....
Maybe later on though.

I wish the Cowboy Lady (or anyone else) could bring an analysis of the harmonic pattern that seems to be showing there (I confess I'm not much into them though I like very much her analysis).

Edit: seems also to be an 1-2-3-4 pattern, projection fall would give 8330 approximatively.
  • #21,890
  • May 27, 2010 4:11pm May 27, 2010 4:11pm
The charts that I see look so awesome. However, besides the TA why doesn't anyone mention or tell people on the thread what they feel is moving the market. For example, more people are cooking more Lamb chops, so there is not enough wool for Australia to sell since so many lambs got gobbled up... Mmmmm lamb chops....
ha ha ha...

Well??
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #21,891
  • May 27, 2010 4:12pm May 27, 2010 4:12pm
I'm pretty much a simple trader on a slower time frame. from the daily and hourly primarly. anyone think we can hit 50% roughly retrace up to .8650 area? or maybe tap where we broke down from the sideways trend around .86. lol i'll try my best to be up to everyone else super T/A.

waiting to initiate a new short swing trade hopefully from between .86-.90. whether we range or reverse shrug.

trying to cut my trading down to a 1-5 trades a week in the currencies. i can see the look on my accountant's face when he sees this year's trading statement. lol harder than it sounds.

mostly dabbling in small cap futures to keep me busy while i wait. lol. bonds moved down quite a bit today. looks like S&P may have some strength and oil popped pretty big today. hesitant to go too short while the S&P rallies and oil move up. but it is the holidays.... herky jerky. seems like we got support here on the S&P. lol or they messing with me
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #21,892
  • Edited 4:29pm May 27, 2010 4:17pm | Edited 4:29pm
fundamentally Austrialia
1.) Mining Tax - Likely to be somehwere between 6-12% and nowhere near 40%
2.) China - most likely to hold off on additional tightening???? gives commodities a breather.
3.) What's the housing situation in Austrialia?
4.) I guess the real question is growth? is it coming or going? lol.
5.) Interest rate increases are temporarily on hold from the RBA wording no?

anyone have any fundamental thoughts to add, argue? shrug. lol sadly i'm bearish so i'm inherently biased. gotta keep myself in check. and not really know much about AUD economy.
  • #21,893
  • May 27, 2010 4:30pm May 27, 2010 4:30pm
Thanks....
It is nice to see that someone on here actually has learned some of the fundies and less of a gambler. I am still trying to learn more fundies to merge them with my TA. Lately all of the politics and the wolf crying from Politicians in the currency market is driving me bonkers.
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #21,894
  • May 27, 2010 4:52pm May 27, 2010 4:52pm
Quoting Pair-me-up
Thanks....
It is nice to see that someone on here actually has learned some of the fundies and less of a gambler. I am still trying to learn more fundies to merge them with my TA. Lately all of the politics and the wolf crying from Politicians in the currency market is driving me bonkers.

lol no need to thank me unless it makes you money!

plus i'm sure i'm missing about 1000000000 other fundy facts.
  • #21,895
  • May 27, 2010 5:44pm May 27, 2010 5:44pm
Quoting Pair-me-up
It is nice to see that someone on here actually has learned some of the fundies and less of a gambler.
Technical analysis is not mere gambling but what has been called "an educated guess"... Every day that passes I am more convinced that price action is mostly computer driven, and fundies provide (or not) the spikes that crank the action to the next level, up or down.

But there's an underlying predetermined broader pattern, on one side, as a result of the interaction of human greed and fear, mass psychology, needed equilibrium (this is why I mainly trade the reversion to the mean) and some random events to spice it up so it doesn't get too boring.

Self-fulfilled prophecies that tend to reinforce themselves and this by the laws of inertia but also because it becomes very practical for the "big players" (or mostly their automated servants) to just remember a few levels and act according to precise goals = bank their $$ today before the other does, then giving back a little so the business can go on.

Money has to move, to change hands, but in the end the most part remains in the banks. It's all virtual. As fake as fundies with their manipulated and partial figures, which this month reflect this and next month are "revised" to show the opposite because probably some bank or big fund (or even a private corporation) needs to balance their cash flow.

It's all just numbers on a screen, in the end.

I usually trade "noise". And for me there lies the core of the subject. Bigger timeframes = bigger noise, but the same patterns over and over. As in nature and life. So precise (but the human being lacks (only apparently) machine precision... and that's the challenge).

Sorry, I'm just rambling, lol
  • #21,896
  • May 27, 2010 6:26pm May 27, 2010 6:26pm
lol fundies are nice.... lol only problem is most people go broke before they work. LOL
  • #21,897
  • May 27, 2010 6:28pm May 27, 2010 6:28pm
Don't get me wrong: technical analysis is not per se a magical spell.
It's just high end statistics. Probable outcome without any bias, for overall situation might turn around at any moment.

It's like carrying an umbrella if you see some grey clouds on the sky, just in case it might rain. An if-then-else condition. Being prepared to react should any of the eventualities occur, but it should not be used for predicting, though it also could be.

Total focus on the NOW, without the interference of judgement (opinions) but with the aid of knowledge, awareness, wisdom and information. The more you have, the more you can get confused about it or then, just understand and ACT upon.

Nobody knows the answers that the future may bring. Will you be there? Is all this for real? In any case, "they" won't tell you and if you happen to guess "them" out, they change the rules of the game while keeping it the same. It's a weird paradox... but you have to think out of the box.

It's like the quantum particles that change their behaviour as soon as they are "observed" (read = judged by another's opinion).

Technical analysis is a nice way to spend some time while waiting for a setup to develop, and then sharing your findings so this forum has a reason to exist

Anything is possible. Not everything will be.
Choices. And good (or not so good) timing.

Time to get off that (soap) box.
Wish you all plenty of pips whichever side you chose!
  • #21,898
  • May 27, 2010 8:46pm May 27, 2010 8:46pm
Not convinced of this rally in the Aussie.

Expecting a move below 0.8 rather than any test of resistance. Selling a few small lots here, will sell more on the way down.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #21,899
  • May 27, 2010 9:39pm May 27, 2010 9:39pm
Nice Chart.

However, why aren't you convinced?
Luck has no place in trading. Leave that for the poker table.
  • #21,900
  • May 27, 2010 9:44pm May 27, 2010 9:44pm
No particular conviction, though watching price action when it gets around the proper levels. It'll be up then down, or vice-versa. Thing is to make sure we get on the right bus and on time... or at least know when it's time to step down.

I don't think either it'll go to 0.90... but 86/88 could be on the cards for next month, 8600 is the upper DTL... then 78ish and down or at least triple bottom. I'm bearish at the time as well, learning to build on the way down (used to to the inverse).
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