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Nearly Naked (Simple Trades)

  • #2,261
  • May 26, 2010 10:17am May 26, 2010 10:17am
Be back in a min need coffee
  • #2,262
  • May 26, 2010 11:47am May 26, 2010 11:47am
Quoting Saxon
Also, if I see a bunch of dojis right before an S/R, that is a bad sign too, see attached.
.i am on the other side ...I love dojis, esp near fib levels. However, I have found them much more effective on 4H and above ...If you look at aussie 4H, you will find a doji right before the current decline

Btw, seems like first levels I mentioned yesterday signalled the reversal. Like Mark, I am still looking at 0.8577. If it gets there, I am going in loaded.
  • #2,263
  • May 26, 2010 11:54am May 26, 2010 11:54am
G/U... possible breakout to the upside.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au.jpg Size: 125 KB
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #2,264
  • May 26, 2010 12:15pm May 26, 2010 12:15pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting calderone
A regular position to him is 30 lots, light is 10 lots. He will feather in to full position when price retraces against him as long as it doesnt go above a certain price range.

The thing is-I've seen him jump into a trade off the 5m even though it isn't in agreement with higher timeframes. He really is fearless with that account. lol He has enough juice to be reckless and double up. 30 lots is slightly less than 1% of his account.

Crazy eh?

On a side note-Saxon is a far better trader hands down.
Sounds a bit crazy yes... But as long as he feels confident in what he does and the results are ok and consistant.
Trading such an account I would just look at the pips..not the amount of money on the table. But think you get used to that as well

Still..no need to adapt that style of trading for me
(--> I do also watch the guys driving their Formula 1 race cars like crazy..but wouldn't try to handle my own car the same way )
So everyone should keep to what he feels comfortable with.

But sure a nice experience watching him trading!
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #2,265
  • May 26, 2010 12:42pm May 26, 2010 12:42pm
Quoting MarcVUM
G/U... possible breakout to the upside.
Hey Marc,

I think you are right... even my chart is testing the UTL and a possible breakout above seems highly possible!

I am just trying to figure out what a good entry point would be if the break-out does occur! maybe u or Saxon can shed some light on that!


Mahsam
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #2,266
  • May 26, 2010 12:50pm May 26, 2010 12:50pm
G/U broke out of my triangle but the breakout is weak. I wouldn't worry too much about it.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #2,267
  • May 26, 2010 12:51pm May 26, 2010 12:51pm
Quoting mahsam
Hey Marc,

I think you are right... even my chart is testing the UTL and a possible breakout above seems highly possible!

I am just trying to figure out what a good entry point would be if the break-out does occur! maybe u or Saxon can shed some light on that!


Mahsam
I think Marc drew his UTL different, like the attached. If that is the case, then the UTL was broken a little while back.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mn.gif Size: 36 KB
  • #2,268
  • May 26, 2010 12:58pm May 26, 2010 12:58pm
UCAD
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cfff.gif Size: 50 KB
  • #2,269
  • May 26, 2010 12:59pm May 26, 2010 12:59pm
Quoting Saxon
I think Marc drew his UTL different, like the attached. If that is the case, then the UTL was broken a little while back.
Hi,

Yea true! Just saw Marc's post! PA is weak is if kinda pushed its way thru the UTL then it would have been a different case! but at the moment is seems like it was a false break-out! Agree..??

Mahsam
  • #2,270
  • May 26, 2010 1:02pm May 26, 2010 1:02pm
Quoting mahsam
Hi,

Yea true! Just saw Marc's post! PA is weak is if kinda pushed its way thru the UTL then it would have been a different case! but at the moment is seems like it was a false break-out! Agree..??

Mahsam
Probably not a false breakout but PA just won't move at a decent speed upwards. There are probably better places for your money to be put to work.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #2,271
  • May 26, 2010 1:02pm May 26, 2010 1:02pm
Quoting Saxon
UCAD

Hi Saxon,

Just saw ur chart of this ucad and went to my platform to see I have a pending buy limit at exactly the same place 1.0530. I placed that arnd 1 hr ago. it seems like as if price is slowly creeping towards that area!

if it hits whts up tp...?

Mahsam
  • #2,272
  • May 26, 2010 1:02pm May 26, 2010 1:02pm
Quoting mahsam
Hi,

Yea true! Just saw Marc's post! PA is weak is if kinda pushed its way thru the UTL then it would have been a different case! but at the moment is seems like it was a false break-out! Agree..??

Mahsam
Ya, I don't think I'm trading GU until my targets. I think if it would have been in that triangle longer or if PA was stronger, we could have seen a nice jump. But momentum isn't really there I think.
  • #2,273
  • May 26, 2010 1:03pm May 26, 2010 1:03pm
A/U. PA has retested the broken TL on M15. Some people believe it's going higher... I don't know at this point.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au.jpg Size: 131 KB
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #2,274
  • May 26, 2010 1:09pm May 26, 2010 1:09pm
Quoting mahsam
Hi Saxon,

Just saw ur chart of this ucad and went to my platform to see I have a pending buy limit at exactly the same place 1.0530. I placed that arnd 1 hr ago. it seems like as if price is slowly creeping towards that area!

if it hits whts up tp...?

Mahsam
I wouldn't set a limit, but a lot of people do. I am going to watch PA at that area and if it comes in shallow (not steep) it might not be a trade for me. So keep your fingers crossed for some speed. Also if PA gets there on an H4 or H1 candle close, PA momentum can just push right though. Also, keep an eye on news and PA of other pairs at that time to give you a feel for the market. Lastly, if it comes in US close or Asia open be cautious. Eventually you'll come to realize that trades aren't black and white, so limits can be scary. Lots o' Variables
  • #2,275
  • May 26, 2010 1:11pm May 26, 2010 1:11pm
Hi Saxon,

I was just wondering when does your usual trading day start and end,..? Its kinda hard for me to follow here cuz m on the other side of the world! So like now its night here arnd 10:10 p.m. so I was thinking of kinda changing my routine to be able to follow this thread a bit more closely!


Mahsam
  • #2,276
  • May 26, 2010 1:12pm May 26, 2010 1:12pm
From OptionMonster.com

Big trade bets S&P could fall to 870
May 26, 2010 Wed 12:19 PM CT

A big bet in the option market is apparently looking for the S&P 500 to fall as low as 870 by September.

The SPY S&P 500 exchange-traded fund sees more options trade than any other name. It has averaged more than 1.3 million contracts per day in the last month, almost twice the second and third most-active names in volume. It is rare that we see any volume above open interest in the SPY, but when we do it is usually in the later expirations.

http://www.optionmonster.com/cms/com...ges/spy526.pngThe September expiration does show some unusual volume today. A trader bought 50,000 of the September 104 puts for $5.03 and, at the same time, sold 50,000 of the September 87 puts for $1.60. The volume at the higher strike was less than the previous open interest, but it certainly appears that this is an opening bearish spread.

The net debit of the spread is $3.43, which will be lost if the SPY is above $104 at expiration, so in total this is a $17 million bet. The trade will take a profit of $13.57 if shares are below $87 for a payoff of almost $68 million.

That $87 level is the exact 52-week low that was set in July 2009. This spread could certainly be a hedge on a long equity position, which is simply using the sale of the $87 puts to offset some of the cost of the higher-strike puts.

The trade also shows that this trader believes that that $87 support will hold. If it is a hedge, the total position is actually bullish, as long stock plus long put is equivalent to a long call.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #2,277
  • May 26, 2010 1:14pm May 26, 2010 1:14pm
Quoting Saxon
I wouldn't set a limit, but a lot of people do. I am going to watch PA at that area and if it comes in shallow (not steep) it might not be a trade for me. So keep your fingers crossed for some speed. Also if PA gets there on an H4 or H1 candle close, PA momentum can just push right though. Also, keep an eye on news and PA of other pairs at that time to give you a feel for the market. Lastly, if it comes in US close or Asia open be cautious. [color=#211600]Eventually you'll come to realize that trades aren't black and white, so limits can be scary....
Yea you are right! But, i have missing a lotta trades cuz when its u.s. close its like 2 a.m. here and asia open is like 4 a.m. here! thats why i wanted to know like your usual start and end time so i can change my routine a bit to work arnd that time! I have the buy limit with a sl of 70 pips... or now m just thinking of removing the limit and see the PA for a bit longer like u suggested!


Mahsam
  • #2,278
  • May 26, 2010 1:19pm May 26, 2010 1:19pm
Quoting mahsam
Hi Saxon,

I was just wondering when does your usual trading day start and end,..? Its kinda hard for me to follow here cuz m on the other side of the world! So like now its night here arnd 10:10 p.m. so I was thinking of kinda changing my routine to be able to follow this thread a bit more closely!


Mahsam
Oh wow, you are far away. I trade right before London open, then usually call it quits. I get back on usually a few hours before NY open and then trade the rest of NY and Asia open. So like:

..........6-8 am EST- 8 pm EST................. Break............ 12 am EST - 2 am EST.....Sleep...........
  • #2,279
  • May 26, 2010 1:26pm May 26, 2010 1:26pm
Quoting mahsam
Yea you are right! But, i have missing a lotta trades cuz when its u.s. close its like 2 a.m. here and asia open is like 4 a.m. here! thats why i wanted to know like your usual start and end time so i can change my routine a bit to work arnd that time! I have the buy limit with a sl of 70 pips... or now m just thinking of removing the limit and see the PA for a bit longer like u suggested!


Mahsam
Hey Mahsam,
Just a comment ..you might want to tune your schedule to trade london. I think Abu Dhabi times might suit London trading well.

I think you might be able to trade it all the way till NY midday when most of the action happens.

Hope this helps.
  • #2,280
  • May 26, 2010 1:29pm May 26, 2010 1:29pm
Quoting aragorn123
Hey Mahsam,
Just a comment ..you might want to tune your schedule to trade london. I think Abu Dhabi times might suit London trading well.

I think you might be able to trade it all the way till NY midday when most of the action happens.

Hope this helps.
I agree
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