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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #3,341
  • May 26, 2010 3:23am May 26, 2010 3:23am
Quoting yullah
Sorry Shahab, howdo you set SL>B/E?

SL to Break /Even , it means move your SL to the entry, if price reverses you wont lose money.
Another way is use of Trailing Stop, your platform has it.
  • #3,342
  • Edited 10:31am May 26, 2010 4:44am | Edited 10:31am
Quoting shahab8b
SL to Break /Even , it means move your SL to the entry, if price reverses you wont lose money.
Another way is use of Trailing Stop, your platform has it.
please can you send something into my mail, i have something for you and to have your mail
  • #3,343
  • May 26, 2010 5:12am May 26, 2010 5:12am
What about this volatility? No point looking at average daily, weekly, monthly ranges at the moment - they're off the charts. Hopefully everyone is pipping well. Can't complain that the market is boring. Make the most of it! Not sure if summer is going to be boring and rangebound - it usually is.

SSI: NZDUSD Ratio Flips Following 44% Jump in Shorts
Wednesday, 26 May 2010 09:52 GMT
Written by Michael Wright

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:

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SSI Details:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at 1.06 as nearly 51% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.03 as 51% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 8.1% higher than yesterday and 5.5% stronger since last week. Short positions are 1.2% lower than yesterday and 22.1% weaker since last week. Open interest is 3.4% stronger than yesterday and 102.3% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD losses.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 1.34 as nearly 57% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.14 as 53% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 13.0% higher than yesterday and 11.6% stronger since last week. Short positions are 4.1% lower than yesterday and 5.3% stronger since last week. Open interest is 5.0% stronger than yesterday and 112.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD losses.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at 1.49 as nearly 60% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.69 as 63% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 2.7% higher than yesterday and 6.4% weaker since last week. Short positions are 17.0% higher than yesterday and 28.5% stronger since last week. Open interest is 8.0% stronger than yesterday and 111.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY losses.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 2.39 as nearly 71% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.21 as 69% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 1.3% higher than yesterday and 1.9% stronger since last week. Short positions are 6.4% lower than yesterday and 3.5% weaker since last week. Open interest is 1.1% weaker than yesterday and 107.7% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at -1.43 as nearly 59% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.23 as 55% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 7.0% lower than yesterday and 2.4% stronger since last week. Short positions are 8.5% higher than yesterday and 3.3% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.5% stronger than yesterday and 106.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF gains.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 1.11 as nearly 53% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.17 as 54% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.6% lower than yesterday and 18.2% weaker since last week. Short positions are 4.2% higher than yesterday and 13.2% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.6% stronger than yesterday and 89.6% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at 1.40 as nearly 58% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.35 as 58% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 3.2% higher than yesterday and 6.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 0.4% lower than yesterday and 20.3% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.7% stronger than yesterday and 89.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD losses.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at -1.07 as nearly 52% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.29 as 56% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 4.3% higher than yesterday and 15.2% weaker since last week. Short positions are 44.1% higher than yesterday and 45.1% stronger since last week. Open interest is 21.7% stronger than yesterday and 113.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD gains.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Market_Strategy_Daily_26_May_2010.pdf   107 KB | 339 downloads
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #3,344
  • May 26, 2010 7:34am May 26, 2010 7:34am
Short Gold has been taken at 1124 SL=1234 TP=TBD
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  • #3,345
  • May 26, 2010 8:17am May 26, 2010 8:17am
I have a feeling we might see indices dropping today.
  • #3,346
  • May 26, 2010 8:17am May 26, 2010 8:17am
Quoting Patience
What about this volatility? No point looking at average daily, weekly, monthly ranges at the moment - they're off the charts. Hopefully everyone is pipping well. Can't complain that the market is boring. Make the most of it! Not sure if summer is going to be boring and rangebound - it usually is.

Thanks Patience always interested in the positioning figs cheers
  • #3,347
  • May 26, 2010 9:04am May 26, 2010 9:04am
[quote=Patience;3754462]What about this volatility? No point looking at average daily, weekly, monthly ranges at the moment - they're off the charts. Hopefully everyone is pipping well. Can't complain that the market is boring. Make the most of it! Not sure if summer is going to be boring and rangebound - it usually is.

SSI: NZDUSD Ratio Flips Following 44% Jump in Shorts
Wednesday, 26 May 2010 09:52 GMT
Written by Michael Wright

Patience, do these really work, one time I examined their effect after the posting and found them more wrong within two to three days time frame, than right.

But anyways, thanks for posting, and please keep posting. I will tally these again early next week with Markets to see if these are what is being predicted
  • #3,348
  • May 26, 2010 9:58am May 26, 2010 9:58am
DAX futures playing Short in 1 min chart
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  • #3,349
  • May 26, 2010 10:30am May 26, 2010 10:30am
Quoting shahab8b
I have a feeling we might see indices dropping today.

I'm already short almost any indicies futures, I think at 50-61% of yesterday candle we can switch to long.
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  • #3,350
  • May 26, 2010 10:34am May 26, 2010 10:34am
nice catch on that 1 minute dax.
  • #3,351
  • May 26, 2010 10:57am May 26, 2010 10:57am
Guys, try to get boarding for long E/U and A/U, use wide stop as they will be good for daily chart trades
  • #3,352
  • May 26, 2010 11:19am May 26, 2010 11:19am
Welllllll shahab8b, if the daily closes like it is now then I rather buy lower close to today lows. so 82.25 area would fit. If it starts to go up then I jump on board.
  • #3,353
  • May 26, 2010 11:23am May 26, 2010 11:23am
Quoting shahab8b
Guys, try to get boarding for long E/U and A/U, use wide stop as they will be good for daily chart trades
From daily candle boarding nzd may also be good or wat do u think shahab or dont bother if u dont trade this pair .
  • #3,354
  • May 26, 2010 11:37am May 26, 2010 11:37am
e/u long is better as its bouncing off support
  • #3,355
  • May 26, 2010 12:13pm May 26, 2010 12:13pm
Quoting goodness
From daily candle boarding nzd may also be good or wat do u think shahab or dont bother if u dont trade this pair .
I know you asked Shahab but I can give you my two cents on NZ/USD.
I have daily and weekly signals to go long on it.

However, like Shahab said you need wide stop loss limits going forward with most of these longs.
  • #3,356
  • May 26, 2010 12:25pm May 26, 2010 12:25pm
Who says TA does not work.

Please look at the pic attached and see how Euro CCI diverg screamed of pending fall from the cliff...............on Weekly chart

TA can be dead on right at times.
Attached Image
  • #3,357
  • May 26, 2010 12:35pm May 26, 2010 12:35pm
Quoting jackm1
I know you asked Shahab but I can give you my two cents on NZ/USD.
I have daily and weekly signals to go long on it.

However, like Shahab said you need wide stop loss limits going forward with most of these longs.

appreciate ur 2cents
  • #3,358
  • Edited 1:53pm May 26, 2010 1:18pm | Edited 1:53pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
DAX futures playing Short in 1 min chart
Hi there Shahab... Now that was a nice one.
Perfect entry. You cashed it in already? or still lookin for more downside (as you posted later)

Still holding my Long A/U from yesterday and added last night.
Re-entered on the Short U/CAD.
As well as their yen-crosses.. A/J and CAD/J

Got on board on the E/U long and short U/CHF as well now.

Any idea what that spike up on A/U earlier today was about?
(my trailing stop of 100 pips on one of my positions was a bit too tight for that :o )
Oh choppy day... I'd say
edit: choppy indeed. just been away for an hour now... gonna watch that now.
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #3,359
  • May 26, 2010 3:11pm May 26, 2010 3:11pm
I would look to sell EUR/USD at current level ( 1.2182 ) with TP1 @ 1.2140 area, then move SL to BE and leave the other 50% running.
  • #3,360
  • May 26, 2010 5:05pm May 26, 2010 5:05pm
HI Shahab,
Here is my take on the astrological aspect of the share market for today. I am loading up DJ at current price of 9882, will add ASX200 later on today, limit entry 4210. Going long A/U, Keeping my short in GBP, and E/U. Also I am long USD/JPY from 89.91. These are all purely on Astrological charts. If anybody wants full details and explanations, pl email me on [email protected]
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