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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #64,781
  • May 25, 2010 6:57pm May 25, 2010 6:57pm
Quoting Atc
I am surprised you haven't mentioned the CL PB ...looks like it's got it goin' on....sorry no time to post a chart
A bit small of a pin if you were looking at reversing such a strong move down. Not really shouting out "reversal".

Nicely formed though.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #64,782
  • May 25, 2010 7:10pm May 25, 2010 7:10pm
Quoting Atc
I am surprised you haven't mentioned the CL PB ...looks like it's got it goin' on....sorry no time to post a chart
Are we taking oil here?

I am looking at Brent crude and WTI.
Both have formed nice pin bars - with WTI the best of the two.

All the major indices have formed a pin today - bombed out for most of the London session and then recovered to create bullish pin bars.
I imagine oil is shadowing this.

I went to look at oilish fundamentals - the oily people are not looking for a turn in price at the moment - so it is a watch and wait process.
  • #64,783
  • May 25, 2010 7:12pm May 25, 2010 7:12pm
Quoting Atc
I am surprised you haven't mentioned the CL PB ...looks like it's got it goin' on....sorry no time to post a chart
Price is shooting down so fast on that. If price retraces to a good level and prints bearish PA, I will go in... no way I will trade against that momentum.
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #64,784
  • May 25, 2010 7:14pm May 25, 2010 7:14pm
Quoting six gun
Are we taking oil here?

I am looking at Brent crude and WTI.
Both have formed nice pin bars - with WTI the best of the two.

All the major indices have formed a pin today - bombed out for most of the London session and then recovered to create bullish pin bars.
I imagine oil is shadowing this.

I went to look at oilish fundamentals - the oily people are not looking for a turn in price at the moment - so it is a watch and wait process.
You do know that oil trends with the comdolls usually right?
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #64,785
  • May 25, 2010 7:25pm May 25, 2010 7:25pm
Quoting Dan Gilbert
Price is shooting down so fast on that. If price retraces to a good level and prints bearish PA, I will go in... no way I will trade against that momentum.

Gotcha
  • #64,786
  • May 25, 2010 7:27pm May 25, 2010 7:27pm
Does anyone use level 2 quotes with forex here?

Does it help to see when there is order imbalance?

Anyone with experience with this?

Thx in advance
  • #64,787
  • May 25, 2010 7:36pm May 25, 2010 7:36pm
Quoting Dan Gilbert
You do know that oil trends with the comdolls usually right?
The comdolls will follow oil - and oil's price is dependant on the actual/perceived balance of supply and demand.

Just got a Dow Jones daily sat above a Brent Crude spot price (West Texas is the same).
The scales aren't the same but oil started tanking down on 4th May - same day as DJ started to head south. Then oil had a blip up starting 10th May - same day as the DJ. Both heading down since.
  • #64,788
  • May 25, 2010 7:57pm May 25, 2010 7:57pm
Quoting Atc
Does anyone use level 2 quotes with forex here?

Does it help to see when there is order imbalance?

Anyone with experience with this?

Thx in advance
It's only brokerside data
  • #64,789
  • May 25, 2010 8:09pm May 25, 2010 8:09pm
Quoting bluetrader
I like the N/U Daily Pin Bar the most of all the ones closing (so far) today.

+ Off a PPZ
+ Big Bar
+ Long Nose
+ Swing Low
+ Space

5 mile view and 5 foot view below...

-- Danny
I could be completely off here, but in my experience when we have pins like these just above very big round numbers, but not actually touching them, more often than not the pin may break for a few pips long--but then it usually shoots back down to the VBRN to truly test it.

For example the NZDUSD, the low is around .6550, I wouldn't be surprised to see price drawn down below .6500 to test the orders near there. Remember price is usually attracted to the VBRN like a magnet.

Just my thoughts, as it seems a lot of the PA today is sitting right above VBRN, but hasn't actually touched them.

Scott
  • #64,790
  • May 25, 2010 8:23pm May 25, 2010 8:23pm
Quoting scott087
I could be completely off here, but in my experience when we have pins like these just above very big round numbers, but not actually touching them, more often than not the pin may break for a few pips long--but then it usually shoots back down to the VBRN to truly test it.

For example the NZDUSD, the low is around .6550, I wouldn't be surprised to see price drawn down below .6500 to test the orders near there....
Exactly my feelings too scott.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #64,791
  • May 25, 2010 8:30pm May 25, 2010 8:30pm
Quoting scott087
I could be completely off here, but in my experience when we have pins like these just above very big round numbers, but not actually touching them, more often than not the pin may break for a few pips long--but then it usually shoots back down to the VBRN to truly test it.

For example the NZDUSD, the low is around .6550, I wouldn't be surprised to see price drawn down below .6500 to test the orders near there....
yes.
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #64,792
  • May 25, 2010 9:06pm May 25, 2010 9:06pm
Quoting scott087
I could be completely off here, but in my experience when we have pins like these just above very big round numbers, but not actually touching them...
Thanks for the thoughtful explanation Scott. Mike mentions this all the time, I completely overlooked this rule of thumb.

-- Danny
  • #64,793
  • May 25, 2010 9:22pm May 25, 2010 9:22pm
On my feed if you draw a trend line from the two lowers lows, one from 2nd November and next 5th Feb the line crosses 0.6500 directly beneath the wick of the pin bar.
It is as if the pin bar should have pushed a little harder to reach the .6500 level where this psyche level and trend line intersect.
It would certainly make sense for price to go another 150 pips before it retraces.
  • #64,794
  • May 25, 2010 9:30pm May 25, 2010 9:30pm
It's all about location, location and uhm location. I would have no problem placing a buy stop order if the low was at .6510 or so as the support is a zone. 50 pips away is too far away though. Good analysis.

Scott

Quoting scott087
I could be completely off here, but in my experience when we have pins like these just above very big round numbers, but not actually touching them, more often than not the pin may break for a few pips long--but then it usually shoots back down to the VBRN to truly test it.

For example the NZDUSD, the low is around .6550, I wouldn't be surprised to see price drawn down below .6500 to test the orders near there....
  • #64,795
  • Edited 10:37pm May 25, 2010 10:11pm | Edited 10:37pm
Given they are very different concepts, mean very different things, have very different levels of reliability and breaks/failed breaks have very different implications, people need to stop conflating trend channel line with trend line - before someone gets hurt.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #64,796
  • May 25, 2010 10:15pm May 25, 2010 10:15pm
Quoting six gun
This is the weekly on AUD/USD.
Notice the trend line where price bounces off - notice how price has probed the line but price has been rejected.
The best play here, for me, is a short under the nose of that 'pin' to catch all the people trapped in a bad countertrend trade and desperate to fill their stops.

Quoting Atc
Does anyone use level 2 quotes with forex here?

Does it help to see when there is order imbalance?

Anyone with experience with this?
I use L2 in other markets (mostly treasury futures). L2 in forex probably wouldnt help all that much.

It isnt as easy as adding up the orders in each column, instos dont just line up all their limit orders for the day and let everyone game them. They are alot smarter than that. Its more about watching the way the orders move, when they are pulled or reversed, trying to isolate paticular algo patterns, etc.

To be honest, for the kind of trading we do here, it would be more trouble than it is worth. At best.
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #64,797
  • May 25, 2010 10:25pm May 25, 2010 10:25pm
This is my 2nd Trade with J16 rules. Went Long on NZD/USD after the H4 PB which was at swing low. Somehow I was not feeling very confident of the Trade after I entered it cause the PB did not have real long nose, so I closed my full position at TP1.

Comments / opinions from experts solicited.


Cheers
Novice 198

PS I broke my rules by taking a H4 TF pin bar as I was not supposed to trade below Daily TF. I think as long as I do not trade below H4 TF it can still be considered trading on higher TF.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #64,798
  • May 25, 2010 10:32pm May 25, 2010 10:32pm
Quoting novice198
This is my 2nd Trade with J16 rules. Went Long on NZD/USD after the H4 PB which was at swing low. Somehow I was not feeling very confident of the Trade after I entered it cause the PB did not have real long nose, so I closed my full position at TP1.

Comments / opinions from experts solicited.


Cheers
Novice 198

PS I broke my rules by taking a H4 TF pin bar as I was not supposed to trade below Daily TF. I think as long as I do not trade below H4 TF it can still be considered trading on higher TF.
Hey N

Well managed trade. Like you said a longer nose would be more ideal, but that isn't to say that people won't trade these bars with great success, swing low, divg, and you managed it perfectly.

As for h4, it is certainly lower timeframe, but it is up to you what you demo. I just have to re-post this as I think it is very important and agree with it.
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...2&postcount=31

Best
Mike
  • #64,799
  • May 25, 2010 10:34pm May 25, 2010 10:34pm
Quoting novice198
This is my 2nd Trade with J16 rules. Went Long on NZD/USD after the H4 PB which was at swing low. Somehow I was not feeling very confident of the Trade after I entered it cause the PB did not have real long nose, so I closed my full position at TP1.
You are trading into alot of traffic, and there is an argument that you possibly missed an earlier PPZ there and that the pin wasnt that strong, but I think the basics are pretty solid here. You picked out a bar, a location, a TP, waited for a confirmed entry and then executed your plan. SO that's a win in my books

Quoting novice198
Comments / opinions from experts solicited.
Next time, just say mike/jaroo/bundy
When you have to shoot, shoot. Dont talk.
  • #64,800
  • May 25, 2010 10:53pm May 25, 2010 10:53pm
Quoting phpscott
It's all about location, location and uhm location. I would have no problem placing a buy stop order if the low was at .6510 or so as the support is a zone. 50 pips away is too far away though. Good analysis.

Scott
Hey Scott,

Just my preference, but I would like to see the low of the pin around .6480 or so, with a close above .6500. We know there are naturally a lot of orders near the VBRN .6500, and by piercing below and closing above we can see that there is in fact stronger buying and more of a reason to go long.

Clearing the orders on both sides of .6500 and seeing where price closes is key for me to knowing that either the buyers or sellers are in control.

Order flow around these levels is critical and we only really know who is in control when price gets a chance to test both sides and fill the orders stacked around this level. Then it's just a matter of reading the PA to figure out which side is in control.

Scott
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