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Nearly Naked (Simple Trades)

  • #2,221
  • May 25, 2010 7:50pm May 25, 2010 7:50pm
Quoting MarcVUM
Oh boy, I don't think it will be the same in here!
I'll still be posting just as frequently, probably more since I will be trading my personal account
  • #2,222
  • May 25, 2010 8:00pm May 25, 2010 8:00pm
Hi Marc

I saw your comments with shahab in his thread earlier about au going back to the .618 fib at 88. What are your thoughts on this, I don't see it happening but it would make me very unhappy if it did.
  • #2,223
  • May 25, 2010 8:09pm May 25, 2010 8:09pm
Quoting amyc
Hi Marc

I saw your comments with shahab in his thread earlier about au going back to the .618 fib at 88. What are your thoughts on this, I don't see it happening but it would make me very unhappy if it did.
Hi Amy. I don't see it happening either although the possibility does exist since it would end up right below the 150ema on the daily chart. I know that you believe that we are still going lower but I have to take the other side. Major support and a major TL has been hit...PA tested the lows twice so a retracement seems to be in order...to where I don't know. My best guess would be the neckline of the double top (8550). To be honest with you I don't have much confidence in my trades since last Friday. I'm just taking them one by one at the moment.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #2,224
  • May 25, 2010 8:24pm May 25, 2010 8:24pm
Quoting MarcVUM
Hi Amy. I don't see it happening either although the possibility does exist since it would end up right below the 150ema on the daily chart. I know that you believe that we are still going lower but I have to take the other side. Major support and a major TL has been hit...PA tested the lows twice so a retracement seems to be in order...to where I don't know. My best guess would be the neckline of the double top (8550). To be honest with you I don't have much confidence in my trades since last Friday. I'm just taking them one by one at the moment....
Thats good, I only see one more day up this week and that's Wednesday and that's only as long as 8204 holds.

I don't see it getting back as far as 8550 anymore, if it wanted to do that it needed to do it on Monday. In a downtrend price won't move above the green highs and they are at 8453 for Wednesday and for Thursday they drop down a lot. Since price is back under the midpoint at 8256 it may even just drop from where it is today. For me 8070 was not a major support just temporary.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au.GIF Size: 11 KB
  • #2,225
  • May 25, 2010 8:37pm May 25, 2010 8:37pm
Quoting amyc
Thats good, I only see one more day up this week and that's Wednesday and that's only as long as 8204 holds.

I don't see it getting back as far as 8550 anymore, if it wanted to do that it needed to do it on Monday. In a downtrend price won't move above the green highs and they are at 8453 for Wednesday and for Thursday they drop down a lot. Since price is back under the midpoint at 8256 it may even just drop from where it is today. For me 8070 was not a major support just temporary.
Interesting. I like your expanded chart showing the highs and lows for Thursday. If we are both on opposite sides of the road here we may just see a repeat of Friday's PA where we just bounce back and forth in a range for a few days. It's only been a few trade days of this but I really haven't liked PA during them.

And now we are breaking 8200 it looks like!
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #2,226
  • May 25, 2010 8:45pm May 25, 2010 8:45pm
Quoting MarcVUM
Interesting. I like your expanded chart showing the highs and lows for Thursday. If we are both on opposite sides of the road here we may just see a repeat of Friday's PA where we just bounce back and forth in a range for a few days. It's only been a few trade days of this but I really haven't liked PA during them.

And now we are breaking 8200 it looks like!
You maybe right, Wednesday maybe a choppy day that is best left alone. Here is a chart of EA. I think that EA is in an uptrend trying to make its way to 1.57 but with todays open it looks like it is going to head back to Thursdays lows at 1.48, if it is an uptrend then that will be solid support. If that moves down it will probably push AU up into the 8350 area in 24hrs time.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ea.GIF Size: 12 KB
  • #2,227
  • May 25, 2010 8:48pm May 25, 2010 8:48pm
If this LTL breaks then I will join your party to the south again!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au.jpg Size: 139 KB
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #2,228
  • May 25, 2010 8:50pm May 25, 2010 8:50pm
Calderone, did you get in U/Chf at 1.1605?
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #2,229
  • May 25, 2010 9:09pm May 25, 2010 9:09pm
Quoting amyc
You maybe right, Wednesday maybe a choppy day that is best left alone. Here is a chart of EA. I think that EA is in an uptrend trying to make its way to 1.57 but with todays open it looks like it is going to head back to Thursdays lows at 1.48, if it is an uptrend then that will be solid support. If that moves down it will probably push AU up into the 8350 area in 24hrs time.
Just my 0.01 cent -
if one looks at the Aussie daily, it put in a nice bullish dragonfly doji. This also coincided with close way above a very important fib level (0.618 of the big uptrend on daily -0.6007 to 0.9404). Finally, it is a double bottom formation on the daily.

Based on all this, I would say we will be seeing a bullish retrace. It might be even more accelerated if the price can break 0.826 and then 0.8311 with momentum. Right now, it is fighting the 20EMA on the 4H.

As for when it will resume the bearish run, I am clueless as well. I am watching 0.8351-0.8381 region as well as 0.8577. Interestingly, the latter coincides perfectly with the previous low and is an important fib level in the current decline as well (from 0.9403 to 0.8065). Thats what I would bet on.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aussie2.PNG Size: 62 KB
  • #2,230
  • May 25, 2010 9:19pm May 25, 2010 9:19pm
Quoting aragorn123
Just my 0.01 cent -
if one looks at the Aussie daily, it put in a nice bullish dragonfly doji. This also coincided with close way above a very important fib level (0.618 of the big uptrend on daily -0.6007 to 0.9404). Finally, it is a double bottom formation on the daily.

Based on all this, I would say we will be seeing a bullish retrace. It might be even more accelerated if the price can break 0.826 and then 0.8311 with momentum. Right now, it is fighting the 20EMA on the 4H.

As for when it will resume the bearish run, I am clueless as well....
8577 was exactly what I was looking for on a retrace but it needed to do it earlier on this week, now I think the best we'll get is 8350. 8577, possible but not probable IMO.
  • #2,231
  • May 25, 2010 10:59pm May 25, 2010 10:59pm
A/U. This is what I'm seeing as PA progresses. Two scenarios. Red lines and Yellow line. Red line has us going north after a few bounces off of the LTL. Would take us back to neckline of Double Top at 8550 which is also a Fib line. Yellow line has us breaking the LTL and bringing us back to previous lows at 8060ish.

Please comment if you see something different.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au.jpg Size: 149 KB
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #2,232
  • May 26, 2010 6:51am May 26, 2010 6:51am
Quoting MarcVUM
A/U. This is what I'm seeing as PA progresses. Two scenarios. Red lines and Yellow line. Red line has us going north after a few bounces off of the LTL. Would take us back to neckline of Double Top at 8550 which is also a Fib line. Yellow line has us breaking the LTL and bringing us back to previous lows at 8060ish.

Please comment if you see something different.
It's following your red prediction pretty well.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ax.gif Size: 44 KB
  • #2,233
  • May 26, 2010 7:33am May 26, 2010 7:33am
Quoting Saxon
It's following your red prediction pretty well.
IMO...a H1 close above D R1 at 8346 and it will continue higher.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #2,234
  • May 26, 2010 8:15am May 26, 2010 8:15am
A/U. It's doing pretty well continuing the move up. If equities push higher than A/U should follow suit just as Amy mentioned. I'm not ruling out 8550.
On H4 we are above 35ma. When the yellow 21ma touches the 35ma then be prepared for a sharp move higher. If the sharp move doesn't take place than we could fall again. Keep you eye on that LTL on M15 as well. A break could be good news for the bears!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au2.jpg Size: 132 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: au.jpg Size: 141 KB
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #2,235
  • May 26, 2010 8:30am May 26, 2010 8:30am
Quoting MarcVUM
A/U. It's doing pretty well continuing the move up. If equities push higher than A/U should follow suit just as Amy mentioned. I'm not ruling out 8550.
On H4 we are above 35ma. When the yellow 21ma touches the 35ma then be prepared for a sharp move higher. If the sharp move doesn't take place than we could fall again. Keep you eye on that LTL on M15 as well. A break could be good news for the bears!
Awesome analysis Marc

I am watching old S/R ~8359 really close and your LTL. Moves above S/R also have weekly piv to deal with too ~8414
  • #2,236
  • May 26, 2010 8:33am May 26, 2010 8:33am
Quoting Saxon
Awesome analysis Marc

I am watching old S/R ~8359 really close and your LTL. Moves above S/R also have weekly piv to deal with too ~8414
Also, we are in TL, "00" intersection right now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: axx.gif Size: 42 KB
  • #2,237
  • May 26, 2010 8:34am May 26, 2010 8:34am
Quoting MarcVUM
A/U. It's doing pretty well continuing the move up. If equities push higher than A/U should follow suit just as Amy mentioned. I'm not ruling out 8550.
On H4 we are above 35ma. When the yellow 21ma touches the 35ma then be prepared for a sharp move higher. If the sharp move doesn't take place than we could fall again. Keep you eye on that LTL on M15 as well. A break could be good news for the bears!
Hey Marc,
Are your MAs exponential or simple?
  • #2,238
  • May 26, 2010 8:36am May 26, 2010 8:36am
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE64P2C220100526
  • #2,239
  • May 26, 2010 8:38am May 26, 2010 8:38am
Quoting Saxon
Hey Marc,
Are your MAs exponential or simple?
Use the M15 settings listed on the pdf.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Marc's M15 Trade Method Settings.pdf   22 KB | 458 downloads
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #2,240
  • May 26, 2010 8:40am May 26, 2010 8:40am
Quoting MarcVUM
Calderone, did you get in U/Chf at 1.1605?
Hey Marc! Yes, I'm in. Gonna hold this one for a while.
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