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  • #12,401
  • May 24, 2010 6:59am May 24, 2010 6:59am
Quoting gododdin
Hi all.

Big Boss has been in a down trend since December last year but is now at major psych support level of 1.26. However it has broken through this level and dropped to 1.2143 during the crazy trading last week but then retraced. Everything is still pointing down however

On the Boss the break through 1.26 and retracement is clear.

On the Worker price retraced for 3 days, has once again punched through the 1.26, this time in the opposite direction (almost making contact with the 20 EMA). Price also penetrated the 50%...

I'm no expert But I tend to agree with you.
I am currently asking my self reasons why not to take the trade should todays bar end similar to how it is now. The stop at over 300 pips is one, So I may only demo trade it.
I see resistance at 1.2350/80 so I would place my entry below there.
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  • #12,402
  • May 24, 2010 10:20am May 24, 2010 10:20am
I couldn't find suitable price action to trade on any of the pairs. There was BUEB on Friday close Daily GBPUSD but the bars around it were not good enough to go long. EURJPY weekly hammer has 600 pips range and I can only trade on worker with guidance from boss and big boss will see what price does above 115.
  • #12,403
  • May 24, 2010 10:43am May 24, 2010 10:43am
Quoting Spinner
Hey I found a new pattern, which I'll call "Dangling Legs"!.

Both legs have been in the water but find it a bit cold, body firmly out and having second thoughts about this pool.

I leave it to your imagination what the candle in the middle is...
Spinner
EURJPY had those dangly legs in Jan 09 too. Not saying we will rally again but I am open to the possibilities
  • #12,404
  • May 24, 2010 11:01am May 24, 2010 11:01am
Quoting elitejets
Spinner
EURJPY had those dangly legs in Jan 09 too. Not saying we will rally again but I am open to the possibilities
Especially since the trendline of current dangling legs touches Jan 2009 dangling legs..interesting.
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  • #12,405
  • May 24, 2010 11:16am May 24, 2010 11:16am
Quoting lawgirl21
What I like about the cable chart is that the boss chart PA finds support aroung 1.4210 and resistence around 1.403---both BRNs.

Then, worker chart has resistence level around 1.4800 another BRN in addition to being right on the 20. Looks like it could be a fairly strong move up before the bottom falls again.
Looks like it could be a fairly strong move up

Against the trend? Dream on!

What tells you this? Oh yes, your "WOW LONG" indicator.

The last guy that predicted a move on here with an indicator (was on GBPJPY), died a horrible death!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,406
  • May 24, 2010 11:23am May 24, 2010 11:23am
Quoting gododdin
Hi all.
Okay, here is my attempt at an analysis of the current situation with EUR/USD (charts below)....
Price also penetrated the 50% fib level but failed to hit the critical 61.8% level (but has my fib been drawn correctly?).

OK for the immediate swing.

I'm sure I've missed loads but would appreciate any comments.

Whatever you missed is not important.

The important part is: depending on what PA does in the next day or so
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,407
  • May 24, 2010 11:36am May 24, 2010 11:36am
Quoting strat
Looks like it could be a fairly strong move up

Against the trend? Dream on!

What tells you this? Oh yes, your "WOW LONG" indicator.

The last guy that predicted a move on here with an indicator (was on GBPJPY), died a horrible death!
Sorry Strat, the WOW is simply an RSI. I noticed as soon as I posted the chart that I should have taken it off...knowing how offended you are by indicators...
  • #12,408
  • May 24, 2010 12:15pm May 24, 2010 12:15pm
Hi All,

As always student sharing notes, learning and observing in real time how difficult price trying to over come SR around 20&50 on the Boss, will help our analysis and put more weight on it when price has over come these obstacles.
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  • #12,409
  • May 24, 2010 12:48pm May 24, 2010 12:48pm
Quoting tao
Hallo all , I post this analysis for learning PASR and appreciate comments. I have been reading about 200 pages of this precious thread.

Big Boss : forming a huge candle down through major support 141.00. Took out the last monthly low and the upswing of two month before. Now at 130.00 major support.
Boss : looks like forming a downward channel and broke lower TL
Worker: went down through 141.00 two weeks ago , tested the level as resistance on 10.5.2010. Now price is at 130.00 major support. BEEB closed below 130 , friday candle closed above .

MA...
First Analysis GJ

Big Boss : forming a huge candle down through major support 141.00.

Not major support in fact no support at all at 141.00 using my data.

Took out the last monthly low and the upswing of two month before. Now at 130.00 major support.

Yes.

Boss : looks like forming a downward channel and broke lower TL
Worker: went down through 141.00 two weeks ago , tested the level as resistance on 10.5.2010. Now price is at 130.00 major support. BEEB closed below 130 , friday candle closed above .

What happens at 130 will decide the fate of the channel.

MA 20 is below MA 50 on all three TF`s and price is below 20 MA. So Big Boss , Boss and Worker in total agreement on downtrend IMO.

No need for an opinion – it is FACT.

I am watching PA at 130.00. May be we see some consolidation after these strong and wild moves . A retracement to Worker MA 20 would be nice and PA at PPZ (You are on the wrong thread!) 135.40

There is R at 133 first.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,410
  • May 24, 2010 12:49pm May 24, 2010 12:49pm
Quoting Spinner
Hey I found a new pattern, which I'll call "Dangling Legs"!.

Both legs have been in the water but find it a bit cold, body firmly out and having second thoughts about this pool.

I leave it to your imagination what the candle in the middle is...
Spinner - that's the famous Camel Pattern!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,411
  • May 24, 2010 1:25pm May 24, 2010 1:25pm
Quoting lawgirl21
Sorry Strat, the WOW is simply an RSI. I noticed as soon as I posted the chart that I should have taken it off...knowing how offended you are by indicators...
Sorry Strat, the WOW is simply an RSI. I noticed as soon as I posted the chart that I should have taken it off...knowing how offended you are by indicators...

I’m not offended by indicators since I UNDERSTAND what they are and more important, what they ARE NOT.

What does offend me is anyone trying to learn PASR with indicators on their charts. As I have said many times, as long as you have an indicator on your chart, you will use it INSTEAD of analyzing PRICE ACTION. The indicator is your crutch and as long as you have it on your charts, you will NEVER fully understand PRICE ACTION.

Now, the RSI or Relative Strength Indicator:

Developed in the late 70s as I recall by Welles Wilder along with all his other crap, er, tool, ADX.

RSI is a Momentum Oscillator. Had you read the thread, you would know that I posted far better and more accurate ways of determining momentum using PRICE ACTION.

The formula in RSI uses a smoothing technique to use PRICE 6 times in the calculation. Talk about LAG! The crossing up of the zero line to indicate bullish prices is long after the big boys and us are positioned at very attractive prices. Similarly with crossing down. Oh, and those overbought and oversold zones – most times they tell you the exact opposite of what PRICE ACTION is doing!

Finally, Wilder used 14 periods as the optimum period. You are using something like 3 periods and then on top of that you applied a moving average. So you now have a lag of a lag giving you a “signal” – Good Luck with that!

By the way, in an interview with Welles Wilder, he declared he used it and his other indicators very little as he never made money with them. The indicator he used most was a volatility indicator

He now lives in New Zealand and makes his money selling Delta Society subscriptions and tracking the moon cycles.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,412
  • May 24, 2010 9:16pm May 24, 2010 9:16pm
Quoting tao
Wanted to make an analysis of one pair I did not look before much, so no bias, just looking for S/R and PA.

Big Boss: Price stopped going down 12.2008. Since then making HL`s and HH`s . The long down candle of may took out the last HL for small 27 pips so far. MA 20 is still below MA 50 with price below MA 20. So no clear direction of the Big Boss. Another close above 89.00 or 90.00 major ( ? ) resistance and a HH would show further uptrend.
A close below 80.00 support and price reaching below first HL 78.53 would show downtrend.
Boss: MA 20 is...
Extreme sports... Extreme trading!

I'm probably going to say something you already know, but it still is worth considering:

Be very careful trading GBPJPY, CADJPY, etc. These pairs are so volatile they can drain your account while you are on a bathroom break. I suggest if you are sure you can handle the extremes then you should at least demo trade them for several months to see what the results are before you consider putting real money on the line. Personally, I don't think they are worth the trouble and stress. It depends on your account size, I suppose. I have watched the GJ for several months now and not once have I seen a setup where I could take a position with acceptable risk for me. But then I tend to be more on the conservative side when it comes to managing risk. To each his own.
  • #12,413
  • May 25, 2010 1:57am May 25, 2010 1:57am
Thanks Strat - good confidence builder for me...

Quoting strat
Price also penetrated the 50% fib level but failed to hit the critical 61.8% level (but has my fib been drawn correctly?).

OK for the immediate swing.

I'm sure I've missed loads but would appreciate any comments.

Whatever you missed is not important.

The important part is: depending on what PA does in the next day or so
When in doubt, sit on your hands...
  • #12,414
  • May 25, 2010 4:17am May 25, 2010 4:17am
Thanks for the comment strat
I will focus on drawing S/R correct. PPZ I thought is part of the toolbox , because you adviced your students to learn it.
Thanks PistolDave
Capital preservation and MM are big parts of my rules. I survived my first year in FX with a drawdown of 20% and now at breakeven. So learned some lessons, canceled the get rich quick thing. Sure tried some indi based strategies, they look so good backtesting ... came across scam signal software that repaints...
Thought daily TF is not fitting to my account size and my knowledge. So stupid, so many people think that way. My experience is the higher the TF the easier trading gets for me.
I have a favour for YEN pairs somehow, but also like the stability in EU and EG ( well, not the last two weeks ). GU feels very manipulated for me and GJ feels a kind of free , I know it`s the beast, but I like it.
I trade microlots real money to work on my psychological issues and practise trade management.
Thanks Alexandra for your eagle`s perspective charts . They open my eyes and my mind . Took the idiots version of EG for me to see your point.
  • #12,415
  • May 25, 2010 9:08am May 25, 2010 9:08am
Quoting tao
Thanks for the comment strat
I will focus on drawing S/R correct. PPZ I thought is part of the toolbox , because you adviced your students to learn it.
Thanks PistolDave
Capital preservation and MM are big parts of my rules. I survived my first year in FX with a drawdown of 20% and now at breakeven. So learned some lessons, canceled the get rich quick thing. Sure tried some indi based strategies, they look so good backtesting ... came across scam signal software that repaints...
Thought daily TF is not fitting to my account size and...
PPZ I thought is part of the toolbox , because you adviced your students to learn it.

PPZ is a description from another thread. I don’t borrow or like using second hand information.

In PASR, we identify SR lines or levels while understanding there is an “energy” around them. I explained this in a post sometime back.


I have a favour for YEN pairs somehow, but also like the stability in EU and EG ( well, not the last two weeks ). GU feels very manipulated for me and GJ feels a kind of free , I know it`s the beast, but I like it.


Specialising in a currency or a few currencies is good – if you study seriously and carefully, you will learn to dance every step with them.

ALL currencies are manipulated – just learn to FOLLOW the manipulators.

I trade microlots real money to work on my psychological issues and practise trade management.

Very good but make sure you are identifying correct SR levels.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,416
  • Edited 9:22am May 25, 2010 9:21am | Edited 9:22am
I don't know how many of us are able to close our platform after setting or taking a hopefully valid trade, but it is absolutely essential that you do so. It is almost impossible not to allow the little people to get to you when you watch all the action during the day. It might be easier for our american friends who go to bed after setting their trades and are only tempted the next morning to see how things are going.

I have been in the habit of keeping my platform open to do research etc, and if I have a trade on it drives me crazy having to live through all that noise during the day, so my advice is if you have trade/s on and you are doing this properly don't look until the next day, otherwise your carefully made plan for target and stop will be sabotaged by the little people.

I speak from bitter experience!

Larry
  • #12,417
  • May 25, 2010 9:39am May 25, 2010 9:39am
Quoting LarryK
I don't know how many of us are able to close our platform after setting or taking a hopefully valid trade, but it is absolutely essential that you do so. It is almost impossible not to allow the little people to get to you when you watch all the action during the day. It might be easier for our american friends who go to bed after setting their trades and are only tempted the next morning to see how things are going.

I have been in the habit of keeping my platform open to do research etc, and if I have a trade on it drives me crazy having to...
I think this is excellent advice, Larry. I would catch myself checking trades when I'm at my office. Not only is it distracting from my work at hand, I sometimes would modify stops and profit targets. I'm not allowing myself to do that anymore.
  • #12,418
  • May 25, 2010 9:40am May 25, 2010 9:40am
Quoting LarryK
I don't know how many of us are able to close our platform after setting or taking a hopefully valid trade, but it is absolutely essential that you do so. It is almost impossible not to allow the little people to get to you when you watch all the action during the day. It might be easier for our american friends who go to bed after setting their trades and are only tempted the next morning to see how things are going.

I have been in the habit of keeping my platform open to do research etc, and if I have a trade on it drives me crazy having to...
I don't know how many of us are able to close our platform after setting or taking a hopefully valid trade, but it is absolutely essential that you do so

I have been in the habit of keeping my platform open to do research etc, and if I have a trade on it drives me crazy having to live through all that noise during the day, so my advice is if you have trade/s on and you are doing this properly don't look until the next day, otherwise your carefully made plan for target and stop will be sabotaged by the little people.

A very good and appropriate reminder!

I don’t know what it is about us human beings, but no matter how many times I say and post such things, we still want to go ahead and “see for ourselves”.

Remember, our trading day is made up of 6 H4 candles or 24 H1 candles etc. Within each of these time frames there are traders buying and selling causing the market to ebb and flow.

Also remember, if they are successful H4 and H1 traders, they will be trading in the direction of the Daily trend.

This means if you are watching your Daily candle, you are basically watching H4 or H1 so you may just as well trade the damned things.

If you do feel the temptation to watch your trade during the day, I can tell you with 100% authority that you do not BELIEVE your PLAN
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,419
  • May 25, 2010 9:56am May 25, 2010 9:56am
Come on, people, wake up!

Do you really need an indicator to tell you this?

It is SIMPLE, it is ACCURATE and it is in REAL TIME - it does NOT lag!
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15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,420
  • May 25, 2010 10:01am May 25, 2010 10:01am
Hi dear Strat, I have a philosophical question for you. I have a very good friend, who is often questioning how trading can be a "good " thing. He says we don't produce anything, we sit and "play", we stay apart and don't keep in touch (real touch..not online of course) with other human being and so on.
I have to agree with him (partly), and my only answer, to save my face, is that I always will donate 10 % of my income from the markets to the poor or to foundations I trust. To me this is more than enough, since not many people are doing it on a regular basis. Acting as an extractor of money from the market and give some of it to the people who need it is a SUPERB good thing that will justify my actions, methinks.
Also I'll add, answering to my friend, that I'm not polluting the planet that much with my actions: no commuting, no packaging, no shipping, no producing anything that can change the environment we live in.
He also says that if the entire planet would trade (this is of course a provocation) there would not be a market, then he assume that trading is against a logical way of life.
To this observation, I answer that anyway traders are just a few and most of them will feed the market rather then withdrawing from it.

Do you have any other positive sociological or philosophical views for being a trader?

Thanks and good luck
Max
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