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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #3,261
  • May 25, 2010 5:07am May 25, 2010 5:07am
hi PAtience
seems the dollar index reached a very important level (87.4)
i think clear break above it could continue till 88.50 (i think 1.18 eurusd)
but if it form double top maybe change the scenario
what is you idea about that?
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  • #3,262
  • May 25, 2010 5:22am May 25, 2010 5:22am
#3240

G/U short from 1.4410 ,half closed at 1.4290 (+120 pips), the rest SL>B/E
  • #3,263
  • May 25, 2010 5:43am May 25, 2010 5:43am
Quoting tradoholic
Hi Shahab,
As we spoke about this before, DJ has dropped significantly since its peak. , I have started to accumulate longs on DJ purely on Astrological charts. If you remember the downturn that started in Jan, which I mentioned before would last for 6 months, is about to complete. I am quite certain of this, but I dont know what implications it will have on currency pairs. Pl let me know what you think about DJ.

Hi there, as you know I dont know much about astrological sign, but technically speaking DJ might drop further, be careful and use SL.

Regarding your question, you can look at currency pairs that have higher correlation with S&P and DJ, like A/U ,U/Cad and their JPY crosses.
  • #3,264
  • May 25, 2010 5:46am May 25, 2010 5:46am
I took short A/U but forgot to post it here

#2125

I closed half before and moved SL>B/E
  • #3,265
  • May 25, 2010 5:49am May 25, 2010 5:49am
Quoting Victory83
hi PAtience
seems the dollar index reached a very important level (87.4)
i think clear break above it could continue till 88.50 (i think 1.18 eurusd)
but if it form double top maybe change the scenario
what is you idea about that?
Hi Victory83

We could get a double top (also got bearish divergence on RSI on 4 hour, daily chart etc) and of course there is that gap on my chart but it is so flipping dire out there on the indices that unless we get a PPT induced rally, I don't know what it is going to take to turn this around. Lloyds TSB are eventually looking for 89.00 ....
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #3,266
  • May 25, 2010 5:50am May 25, 2010 5:50am
Quoting Patience
Ewwwww, that sends a pain through my heart Looking sad and drab out there - are we to expect another PPT induced rally later on?

Attachment

G'day patience,
Sorry if my chart made you sad . But you know that I can be wrong .
  • #3,267
  • May 25, 2010 5:54am May 25, 2010 5:54am
Quoting shahab8b
G'day patience,
Sorry if my chart made you sad . But you know that I can be wrong .
Yeah, for once, I hope you are but I'm not sure. If the bond vigilantes turn their attention from the EUR to GBP, then I'm in trouble and then I'll have to short the stuffing out of the ugly sister
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #3,268
  • May 25, 2010 5:59am May 25, 2010 5:59am
Quoting Patience
I haven't got any trades on it but it hurts to see it going down, down, down. At least it is sunny here - something to smile about ...

.
This time all of them are in the wrong side, even in Loonie .
  • #3,269
  • May 25, 2010 5:59am May 25, 2010 5:59am
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
I took short A/U but forgot to post it here

#2125

I closed half before and moved SL>B/E

Hi there Shahab,
I also took a short on A/U (from .8250)
As well as A/J (after taking profit on the Long from last week)
On both after the break of the LTL of their "retrace-triangles" (the one I posted yesterday)
Had pending orders ready to add on a retest of those LTL, but they didn't get filled --> So my current positions are again pretty small ones.


Indices futures leading the way with a new low today. Hope you are still holding some of your shorts on those? (after taking my small piece of that pie I didn't find a good entry anymore)

Regards, Tuner
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #3,270
  • May 25, 2010 6:05am May 25, 2010 6:05am
Quoting Tuner
Hi there Shahab,
I also took a short on A/U (from .8250)
As well as A/J (after taking profit on the Long from last week)
On both after the break of the LTL of their "retrace-triangles" (the one I posted yesterday)
Had pending orders ready to add on a retest of those LTL, but they didn't get filled --> So my current positions are again pretty small ones.


Indices futures leading the way with a new low today. Hope you are still holding some of your shorts on those? (after taking my small piece of that pie I didn't find a good entry anymore)...
Hi Tuner, no I dont have any short left in indicies ,closed them all on Fri , I though I could take shorts at retracements which never happened.
  • #3,271
  • May 25, 2010 6:08am May 25, 2010 6:08am
G/U might be good to short at 1.4330-60 if someone is looking for it.
  • #3,272
  • May 25, 2010 6:23am May 25, 2010 6:23am
U/J
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  • #3,273
  • May 25, 2010 6:28am May 25, 2010 6:28am
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
Hi Tuner, no I dont have any short left in indicies ,closed them all on Fri , I though I could take shorts at retracements which never happened.
I was hoping for some more retracements as well. But the drop goes on and on.
But I shouldn't think of what I have missed in profits now. and wait for the next opportunity to come. (Even if the current drop could have been the "trade of the year")
Sooner or later there will always be a major retracement. But question then will be: retracement or turn-around to the upside again.
(Can't post any chart at the moment.. but If I look at Nasdaq for example around the 1700 should be a strong level of support that we might meet soon )
Don't want to burn my fingers there on...
--> So I try to be patient for the moment and take the small pieces I get get
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #3,274
  • May 25, 2010 6:29am May 25, 2010 6:29am
Quoting shahab8b
U/J
Well that should be exciting when the BoJ steps in Boing, boing .... A/J has basically double bottomed at the moment - famous last words .... Thought I better check out A/J's average yearly range for the last 10 years (2000-2009). It's 1,900 pips. We've done 1,619 pips with the high at 0.8805 and low at 0.7186.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #3,275
  • May 25, 2010 7:56am May 25, 2010 7:56am
Quoting shahab8b
G/U might be good to short at 1.4330-60 if someone is looking for it.
Great !! I am in @ 1.4357.

Would you agree that TP is around 1.4254 ?

Thanks!
  • #3,276
  • May 25, 2010 8:02am May 25, 2010 8:02am
Quoting Bouzies
Great !! I am in @ 1.4357.

Would you agree that TP is around 1.4254 ?

Thanks!

As a general rule, whatever your Sl is your TP should be more I mean always try to keep (TP in pips / SL in pips)> one
  • #3,277
  • May 25, 2010 8:05am May 25, 2010 8:05am
Quoting Tuner
I was hoping for some more retracements as well. But the drop goes on and on.
But I shouldn't think of what I have missed in profits now. and wait for the next opportunity to come. (Even if the current drop could have been the "trade of the year")
Sooner or later there will always be a major retracement. But question then will be: retracement or turn-around to the upside again.
(Can't post any chart at the moment.. but If I look at Nasdaq for example around the 1700 should be a strong level of support that we might meet soon )
Don't...
It has already been the trade of the year imo.
  • #3,278
  • May 25, 2010 8:10am May 25, 2010 8:10am
Short U/Chf has been taken at 1.1670 Sl=1.1710
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  • #3,279
  • May 25, 2010 8:15am May 25, 2010 8:15am
Quoting Bouzies
Great !! I am in @ 1.4357.

Would you agree that TP is around 1.4254 ?

Thanks!

Another rule is never let a green trade goes red.
  • #3,280
  • May 25, 2010 8:18am May 25, 2010 8:18am
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
It has already been the trade of the year imo.
--> for me... as I "chickened" out on my DAX and S&P trades and took profit early it was "just" a nice profit trade.. But still I shouldn't complain
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
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