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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #3,241
  • May 24, 2010 9:19am May 24, 2010 9:19am
Quoting puks
why do you believe that?

Hi mate,
Hope all is well, I'm watching the U.S. equities to get a clue for the next move.
The confidence in any call is low right now, it's not clear whether the fall continues or a correction is on the card. My suggestion is not to trade until the direction becomes clear.
  • #3,242
  • May 24, 2010 9:30am May 24, 2010 9:30am
Quoting shahab8b
Hi mate,
Hope all is well, I'm watching the U.S. equities to get a clue for the next move.
The confidence in any call is low right now, it's not clear whether the fall continues or a correction is on the card. My suggestion is not to trade until the direction becomes clear.
Cheers mate.

I still testing a few strategies in demo account.

I am not trading euro right now, but trading yen crosses.

AUD has formed a nice channel in 1H charts and we can safely play the range. .8180-8360. and an inner range .8220-8340. - with bullish bias.

I am expecting it to break (false break) higher at some stage time week or next before making a move below 80 cents.

IMHO, markets will range this week and next week (unless we get some shivers from EU leaders) so I am looking to play the ranges.

Good luck trading buddy.
cheers
  • #3,243
  • May 24, 2010 9:31am May 24, 2010 9:31am
Some one said that they find the weekly chart I run for the COT to be useful. I thought I'd continue to post it weekly

http://chart.ly/assets/x7kvnq.png

10 year treas are the only with increased net position and increased OI albeit not by much. I am demoing the futures market and live trading currencies. I compile this by hand but plan to automate in future which will allow to do more markets.
  • #3,244
  • May 24, 2010 9:47am May 24, 2010 9:47am
Quoting shahab8b
G/U short term

Hi Shahab,

Your trade was just triggered like 20 mins back..! Seems to be going down nicely ever since! any TP suggestions..??

Mahsam
  • #3,245
  • Edited 10:13am May 24, 2010 10:01am | Edited 10:13am
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
Hi mate,
Hope all is well, I'm watching the U.S. equities to get a clue for the next move.
The confidence in any call is low right now, it's not clear whether the fall continues or a correction is on the card. My suggestion is not to trade until the direction becomes clear.
Hey there Shahab,

Hope you had a nice weekend!
I am also almost flat at the moment. Bias still towards some more retrace / correction for this week. But as you said, pretty unclear at the moment.
For trades almost flat at the moment and waiting.
My only trade for the moment is still the Long A/J from last week.
Didn't break the 23.6 fibs yet (beein also the neckline of the possible inverted H&S - I was lookin for last week) but formed a pretty nice triangle there now below that line. So let's see what direction we will break it.
Gonna trail my stop to below that LTL now.

Good luck to you!
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"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #3,246
  • May 24, 2010 11:33am May 24, 2010 11:33am
On H4,

Shorted the following just now

U/J
U/C
A/NZ
  • #3,247
  • May 24, 2010 11:36am May 24, 2010 11:36am
GBP heading towards 1.5?
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Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #3,248
  • May 24, 2010 11:55am May 24, 2010 11:55am
Quoting jackm1
On H4,

Shorted the following just now

U/J
U/C
A/NZ
I am long on these"

usdjpy 90.43
gbpjpy 130.20
eudusd 1.2375
eurjpy 111.57
audusd 83.11

short usdcsd 1.0697
  • #3,249
  • May 24, 2010 1:19pm May 24, 2010 1:19pm
Quoting shahab8b
Long Gold at 1175 SL=1150 TP=TBD

Long Gold :Closed at 1195 (+200pips)
  • #3,250
  • May 24, 2010 1:21pm May 24, 2010 1:21pm
Short GU @ 1.4450 SL 1.4485
  • #3,251
  • May 24, 2010 1:26pm May 24, 2010 1:26pm
Quoting mahsam
Hi Shahab,

Your trade was just triggered like 20 mins back..! Seems to be going down nicely ever since! any TP suggestions..??

Mahsam

I assume you closed it by now, if not Keep your SL at 1.4480 ,the confidence is low, TP 1.43
  • #3,252
  • May 24, 2010 2:45pm May 24, 2010 2:45pm
Gold sell limit at 1205 sl=1228 TP=BPD
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  • #3,253
  • May 24, 2010 2:58pm May 24, 2010 2:58pm
Quoting shahab8b
Gold sell limit at 1205 sl=1228 TP=BPD
Do you know if its possible to open a forex hedging acct (where I can buy & sell the same pair at the same time). I am in Canada. I know NFA rules dont allow brokers to offer hedging accts in north america. But do you recommend any broker that offer such an acct or how is it possible?

thank you
  • #3,254
  • May 24, 2010 3:29pm May 24, 2010 3:29pm
euraud short 1.50500, anyone?

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It's not about how much you make, it's about how much you don't lose.
  • #3,255
  • May 24, 2010 6:08pm May 24, 2010 6:08pm
Quoting Dhb
euraud short 1.50500, anyone?

Attachment
Hi Shahab,
As we spoke about this before, DJ has dropped significantly since its peak. Although many believe that there is more downside to come, and it may also look so on the technical charts, I have started to accumulate longs on DJ purely on Astrological charts. If you remember the downturn that started in Jan, which I mentioned before would last for 6 months, is about to complete. My charts show an upside from 27th May, and picking up speed after 11th June. I am quite certain of this, but I dont know what implications it will have on currency pairs. Pl let me know what you think about DJ.
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #3,256
  • May 24, 2010 10:31pm May 24, 2010 10:31pm
Quoting shahab8b
Cable monthly chart, My minimum expectation is 1.293, I even think there is a chance to see 1.04 in 6-7 months.
Ewwwww, that sends a pain through my heart Looking sad and drab out there - are we to expect another PPT induced rally later on?

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Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #3,257
  • May 24, 2010 11:12pm May 24, 2010 11:12pm
Looks like running out of gas on daily chart (look back period approx 1 yr for daily chart)
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  • #3,258
  • May 25, 2010 1:45am May 25, 2010 1:45am
Quoting shahab8b
I assume you closed it by now, if not Keep your SL at 1.4480 ,the confidence is low, TP 1.43
Hi Shahab,

Sorry for the late reply went to bed and just got up! yea i closed it at +50 pips

thanks bro

Mahsam
  • #3,259
  • May 25, 2010 3:03am May 25, 2010 3:03am
I am expecting a cable breakdown below previous lows of 1.4250. I doubt if we can hold those levels today.

A very good chance that we'll see lows below 1.4200 by NY close tonight.

FWIW...



Quoting Patience
Ewwwww, that sends a pain through my heart Looking sad and drab out there - are we to expect another PPT induced rally later on?

Attachment
  • #3,260
  • May 25, 2010 4:23am May 25, 2010 4:23am
Quoting puks
I am expecting a cable breakdown below previous lows of 1.4250. I doubt if we can hold those levels today.

A very good chance that we'll see lows below 1.4200 by NY close tonight.

FWIW...
I haven't got any trades on it but it hurts to see it going down, down, down. At least it is sunny here - something to smile about ...

SSI: Retail Traders Attempt to Fade NZDUSD Decline, Longs Jump 29%
Tuesday, 25 May 2010 08:46 GMT
Written by Michael Wright

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:

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SSI Details:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at 1.07 as nearly 52% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.04 as 51% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 0.3% higher than yesterday and 10.6% weaker since last week. Short positions are 2.5% lower than yesterday and 9.5% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.1% weaker than yesterday and 105.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD losses.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 1.43 as nearly 59% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.26 as 56% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 4.6% higher than yesterday and 0.7% weaker since last week. Short positions are 8.4% lower than yesterday and 6.7% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.2% weaker than yesterday and 105.6% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD losses.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at 1.90 as nearly 65% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.68 as 63% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 6.2% higher than yesterday and 8.6% weaker since last week. Short positions are 6.1% lower than yesterday and 8.0% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.6% stronger than yesterday and 107.4% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY losses.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 2.41 as nearly 71% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.52 as 72% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 3.7% higher than yesterday and 11.1% stronger since last week. Short positions are 8.4% higher than yesterday and 7.7% weaker since last week. Open interest is 5.0% stronger than yesterday and 111.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at -1.00 as nearly 50% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.07 as 52% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 4.1% lower than yesterday and 16.9% weaker since last week. Short positions are 2.9% higher than yesterday and 0.3% weaker since last week. Open interest is 0.7% weaker than yesterday and 93.4% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD gains.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at -1.55 as nearly 61% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.70 as 63% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 2.9% lower than yesterday and 15.0% stronger since last week. Short positions are 11.6% lower than yesterday and 1.2% stronger since last week. Open interest is 8.4% weaker than yesterday and 112.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF gains.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at 1.44 as nearly 59% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.38 as 58% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 2.1% lower than yesterday and 14.8% weaker since last week. Short positions are 6.2% lower than yesterday and 17.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.8% weaker than yesterday and 91.1% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD losses.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at 1.72 as nearly 63% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.26 as 56% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 29.3% higher than yesterday and 5.1% stronger since last week. Short positions are 5.5% lower than yesterday and 4.3% weaker since last week. Open interest is 13.9% stronger than yesterday and 118.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD losses.
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Market_Strategy_Daily_25_May_2010.pdf   160 KB | 330 downloads
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