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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #22,801
  • May 21, 2010 10:41am May 21, 2010 10:41am
Hi,
I thought that panic has gone away in EU zone and shall be calmer however volatility is still high.
I followed bascic rules. I went back studying market rythm after repeated failures.
I went long on cable 1.4433 TP30 SL around 30 (not set yet /watching online). 8/21 MA support, MACD showing some positive trend.
Price could went higher however after some time I realized that cable has been facing resistance (circles below). TP 30 hit.


I thought that one has to be careful on Friday.
Do you follow any rule regarding placing orders in special weekdays ie. not trading on Monday?
Thx
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  • #22,802
  • May 21, 2010 3:24pm May 21, 2010 3:24pm
Quoting smikester
Volatility levels are very high, daily ATR is 240 as opposed to 140, so trade carefully. The Euro has bounced but I think it might be profit taking. I don't see much future for the currency unless Europe gets its fiscal structure tightened.

It's Friday so anything could happen and I'm taking the day off but here is a chart:


S/R levels marked in grey. If I were to short I would be looking for something right here.
I have read some news reporting snb (swiss national bank) is suspected to be the cause of this big move, maybe just rumors...
  • #22,803
  • May 21, 2010 7:55pm May 21, 2010 7:55pm
Quoting Danku
Are you also able to change the colors? I would be very interested to make some adjustments............thanks AlwaysLearn
Should be able to change the colors. PM me your email and I will try to send a tutorial to you as soon as I can.
  • #22,804
  • Edited May 22, 2010 12:20am May 21, 2010 8:09pm | Edited May 22, 2010 12:20am
Quoting andy1969
I have read some news reporting snb (swiss national bank) is suspected to be the cause of this big move, maybe just rumors...
Someone is definitely interfering with the CHF. You don't get vertical moves in a straight line like the last 3 days unless someone with very deep pockets is intervening. The SNB is concerned with the CHF being too high.
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  • #22,805
  • May 22, 2010 10:30am May 22, 2010 10:30am
Quoting smikester
Volatility levels are very high, daily ATR is 240 as opposed to 140, so trade carefully. The Euro has bounced but I think it might be profit taking. I don't see much future for the currency unless Europe gets its fiscal structure tightened.

It's Friday so anything could happen and I'm taking the day off but here is a chart:

Attachment

S/R levels marked in grey. If I were to short I would be looking for something right here.
Hi Smikester,

Thanks for your comment.
  • #22,806
  • Edited May 23, 2010 6:18pm May 22, 2010 11:08pm | Edited May 23, 2010 6:18pm
I see trading opportunity (long) in USDCHF.

In Daily, the candle in May 18 show strength of the uptrend.
In H4, price is currently resting on EMA21
In H1, price has been in trading range since 18 May until now and it just bounce off from SMA89 with MACD showing first green line.
My concern is price is at the upper trendline & MACD in daily is in very overbought territory.

Are we expecting the price to bounce off 89 sharply? Any comments welcome.
  • #22,807
  • Edited 5:31am May 24, 2010 1:39am | Edited 5:31am
@Silverfox,usdchf could be an opportunity, but I wouldn't enter right now. price is flat and goes sideways on 4h. if you switch to 1h it looks horribly uncertain. on this pair I'd wait for a clear rhythm to build up before entering.

@all
long with half risk on 4h gu @1,4493, r=100=sl, tp=2r, around 89ema
price went above 8/21ema and bounced off the cross/21ema
may add another half position on long signal of 1h chart

short with half risk on 1h usdcad @1,059 r=66=sl, tp around 1,5r, depending on momentum. be around 89sma of 1h chart.
on 4h cad looks like it would go for a corrective move, while on 1h the correcive move had already begun. price bounced off 21ema after having crossed it for the second time up to down.

both trades are countertrend trades

edit:just realized that I have not posted the 1h chart of cad
cad reached 89sma on 1h, sl to be

edit:
cad sl be
again the trademanagement problem. maybe on the cad ct I should have taken profit at 1r

edit:
gu sl hit
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: cad 1h 24.5.10.gif Size: 13 KB
  • #22,808
  • May 24, 2010 2:11am May 24, 2010 2:11am
Quoting ashes
@Silverfox,usdchf could be an opportunity, but I wouldn't enter right now. price is flat and goes sideways on 4h. if you switch to 1h it looks horribly uncertain. on this pair I'd wait for a clear rhythm to build up before entering.

@all
long with half risk on 4h gu @1,4493, r=100=sl, tp=2r, around 89ema
price went above 8/21ema and bounced off the cross/21ema
may add another half position on long signal of 1h chart

short with half risk on 1h usdcad @1,059 r=66=sl, tp around 1,5r, depending on momentum. be around 89sma of 1h chart.
on 4h cad...
Hi Ashes.

I am long GU too. Good trades you have there.
  • #22,809
  • Edited 4:48am May 24, 2010 2:13am | Edited 4:48am
Quoting silverfox88
I see trading opportunity (long) in USDCHF.

In Daily, the candle in May 18 show strength of the uptrend.
In H4, price is currently resting on EMA21
In H1, price has been in trading range since 18 May until now and it just bounce off from SMA89 with MACD showing first green line.
My concern is price is at the upper trendline & MACD in daily is in very overbought territory.

Are we expecting the price to bounce off 89 sharply? Any comments welcome.
I don't normally trade UCHF but to me it is a bit overextended and like you said it is at the top trendline. I think that it has more of a probability of going down than up. With so much intervening from the SNB, it is best to stay out of that pair.
  • #22,810
  • May 24, 2010 2:22am May 24, 2010 2:22am
Quoting xeneric
Hi Ashes.

I am long GU too. Good trades you have there.
thank you, let's see how the gu develops. it's going to be a tough road to 89sma
  • #22,811
  • May 24, 2010 3:00am May 24, 2010 3:00am
Quoting lukis
Price could went higher however after some time I realized that cable has been facing resistance (circles below). TP 30 hit.
So, you bought just under resistance and were lucky to get a profit. When you see this close an H4 bar above that level, with little or no upper wick, would you go long?
Gone to a better place
  • #22,812
  • May 24, 2010 3:01am May 24, 2010 3:01am
I forgot that today is a Swiss, French, German and Canadian bank holiday. That means that volume is going to be low and erratic.
  • #22,813
  • May 24, 2010 5:25am May 24, 2010 5:25am
Quoting xeneric
Hi Ashes.

I am long GU too. Good trades you have there.
Got stopped out.
  • #22,814
  • May 24, 2010 5:41am May 24, 2010 5:41am
the gu trade was risky, that's why I have entered with 1/2 of my usual risk.

it was a ct plus the price was within a rising wedge ... but it was worth trying
  • #22,815
  • May 24, 2010 5:58am May 24, 2010 5:58am
Quoting ashes
@Silverfox,usdchf could be an opportunity, but I wouldn't enter right now. price is flat and goes sideways on 4h. if you switch to 1h it looks horribly uncertain. on this pair I'd wait for a clear rhythm to build up before entering.

@all
long with half risk on 4h gu @1,4493, r=100=sl, tp=2r, around 89ema
price went above 8/21ema and bounced off the cross/21ema
may add another half position on long signal of 1h chart

short with half risk on 1h usdcad @1,059 r=66=sl, tp around 1,5r, depending on momentum. be around...
Hi Ashes, Xeneric,

Thank you for your comments. The market now is very volatile, one moment it is moving up, this moment is moving down. I have checked thru my 6 pairs and noticed EURUSD and GBPUSD is getting interesting. It has moved down from the EMA8 in daily and in H4, moving away from EMA21. However, this current big candle is too big for my liking. I will wait for some retracement before entering. Comments welcome.
  • #22,816
  • May 24, 2010 6:08am May 24, 2010 6:08am
Quoting silverfox88
Hi Ashes, Xeneric,

Thank you for your comments. The market now is very volatile, one moment it is moving up, this moment is moving down. I have checked thru my 6 pairs and noticed EURUSD and GBPUSD is getting interesting. It has moved down from the EMA8 in daily and in H4, moving away from EMA21. However, this current big candle is too big for my liking. I will wait for some retracement before entering. Comments welcome.
on gu and eu one could give it a try entering on a 1h tc signal
  • #22,817
  • May 24, 2010 6:18am May 24, 2010 6:18am
Quoting ashes
on gu and eu one could give it a try entering on a 1h tc signal
I have checked on H1 but it seems TC has appeared quite some hours ago and its too late now to enter base on H1. I am waiting for this hour close to decide if the deal is on.
  • #22,818
  • May 24, 2010 6:53am May 24, 2010 6:53am
Quoting silverfox88
I have checked on H1 but it seems TC has appeared quite some hours ago and its too late now to enter base on H1. I am waiting for this hour close to decide if the deal is on.
I did't mean to enter on 1h soon ... only after a pullback to 21/8ema one could evaluate the signal
  • #22,819
  • May 24, 2010 7:03am May 24, 2010 7:03am
Quoting ashes
I did't mean to enter on 1h soon ... only after a pullback to 21/8ema one could evaluate the signal
ok, got what you meant. Thanks for the guidance. I have just short EU at 12378 with sl at 12469.

Let see how it develop from here.
  • #22,820
  • May 24, 2010 9:25am May 24, 2010 9:25am
usdchf crossed the upper tl resistance
I would expect the price to come down to tl/8/21ema, eventually.
then I'd enter long, a bounce off tl/8/21ema
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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