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  • #1,281
  • May 21, 2010 3:07pm May 21, 2010 3:07pm
was short euro 12580 but I'm not going to risk this gap thing either, a difficult day all round. Back Sunday night for more punishment, have a good weekend folks
  • #1,282
  • Edited 5:19pm May 22, 2010 4:37pm | Edited 5:19pm
Here are two charts showing the overall position of EU in the broader Fx universe..

At the beginning of May, EU opened right above important monthly TL support.. it failed to break it and bounced much higher then came back and tested it again and was successful. It has now bounced back again and looks to retest the broken TL which appears to be around 1.273..


http://crawldex.com/EUmunfly.bmp

If it can break through that a good spot for a short is the declining TL on the weekly charts which should cap it right before 1.30..

http://crawldex.com/euweekly.bmp
  • #1,283
  • May 22, 2010 4:50pm May 22, 2010 4:50pm
Here's another good chart showing the down channel break in EUR/CAD dailies .. it broke Thursday and pulled back near support Friday.. A little bit lower and I'll be long..

http://crawldex.com/eurcad.jpg
  • #1,284
  • May 22, 2010 6:27pm May 22, 2010 6:27pm
[quote=Pippy5000;3747030]Here's another good chart showing the down channel break in EUR/CAD dailies .. it broke Thursday and pulled back near support Friday.. A little bit lower and I'll be long..

Nice analysis, I agree. I think EUR is going to rally harder than people are expecting.
Hope you are having a good weekend
  • #1,285
  • May 22, 2010 7:39pm May 22, 2010 7:39pm
yep.. because:

1. sentiment extreme.. at record levels actually
2. no longer responding to lower equities
3. market spooked

EUR is holding up while AUD and CAD die horribly. If you want to see an example of a strong TL break.. look at EUR/AUD ..

If EUR/AUD had the nerve to come down and see me near that down channel break I would over-leverage myself comically. I would sell all of my possessions to buy a thoroughly over-the-top amount of EUR/AUD and drag my friends and family down by selling their stuff too.

Maybe not.. maybe I'll just put one lot on it but my point is that the strength of the breakout would tend to imply that the smart money is buy on dips EUR/AUD ... My god.. look at the dailies!
  • #1,286
  • May 23, 2010 6:31am May 23, 2010 6:31am
I agree with 1.273, as it is 50% of May hi-lo swing.

Quoting Pippy5000
Here are two charts showing the overall position of EU in the broader Fx universe..

At the beginning of May, EU opened right above important monthly TL support.. it failed to break it and bounced much higher then came back and tested it again and was successful. It has now bounced back again and looks to retest the broken TL which appears to be around 1.273..


http://crawldex.com/EUmunfly.bmp

If it can break through that a good spot for a short is the declining TL on the weekly charts which should cap it right before 1.30.....
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #1,287
  • May 23, 2010 9:14pm May 23, 2010 9:14pm
I'm long EUR/CAD 1.3268 on the pullback to the broken TL.. -30 pip stop..

potential for really big gains
  • #1,288
  • Edited 3:55am May 24, 2010 3:29am | Edited 3:55am
1.4772-1.4778 is interesting to me in GBP as it is May 50% and Q1/march swing low.

If GBP tanks before testing above zone, then we ought to have 1st target at 50% extension between current low 1.4227 & Jan 2009 low 1.3492, that 50% makes it 1.3860 zone on the way to 2009 low.
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #1,289
  • May 24, 2010 8:46am May 24, 2010 8:46am
ugh.. first trade of the week busted -30
  • #1,290
  • May 24, 2010 8:52am May 24, 2010 8:52am
I don't know about you P, but I see weaker currencies drifting upwards to sideways this week, a possible chop fest galore. I am keeping an eye on DX for clues, as it will dictate direction & timing of next big move, that's what we need a big move as size does matter
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #1,291
  • May 24, 2010 9:11am May 24, 2010 9:11am
I'm long EU off the 61.8 drawn on the 2hr chart.. 1.235

-20 pip stop
  • #1,292
  • May 24, 2010 12:09pm May 24, 2010 12:09pm
banking 61 on EU.. twice my risk.

now positive for the week
  • #1,293
  • May 24, 2010 1:03pm May 24, 2010 1:03pm
nice fib trade considering it's pretty thin today, congrats
  • #1,294
  • May 24, 2010 1:35pm May 24, 2010 1:35pm
EA anyone?
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #1,295
  • May 24, 2010 3:54pm May 24, 2010 3:54pm
EA is too choppy today.. it's getting on my nerves.. due to the size of the move last week you'd think it would need to retrace a bit more before continuing upward.
  • #1,296
  • May 24, 2010 4:19pm May 24, 2010 4:19pm
Quoting Pippy5000
EA is too choppy today.. it's getting on my nerves.. due to the size of the move last week you'd think it would need to retrace a bit more before continuing upward.
38 fibs + 123 buy on hourly seemed like a gift
Prices oscillate, trends persist. Trend is your friend.
  • #1,297
  • May 24, 2010 4:31pm May 24, 2010 4:31pm
I'm long EU at 1.2335 -40 pip stop
  • #1,298
  • May 24, 2010 7:33pm May 24, 2010 7:33pm
The Commodities pairs have been moving pretty good when the Majors are slow and choppy, FWIW.

Quoting Pippy5000
EA is too choppy today.. it's getting on my nerves.. due to the size of the move last week you'd think it would need to retrace a bit more before continuing upward.
  • #1,299
  • May 24, 2010 7:58pm May 24, 2010 7:58pm
ouch..
  • #1,300
  • May 24, 2010 9:34pm May 24, 2010 9:34pm
EURUSD long 1.23 stop 1.2270 PT's 124.65/127.50
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