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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #3,201
  • May 22, 2010 8:47am May 22, 2010 8:47am
Quoting belekas
Hi. Do you welcome other traders ideas shahab8b?

Hi belekas, why not? it's actually good to see it from another point of view
  • #3,202
  • May 22, 2010 10:15am May 22, 2010 10:15am
Quoting shahab8b
Patience, this is for you
Nice one I decided to make it easy on myself (for once) and hop on the short train on Thursday and part of Friday so I'm in short trade mode and I need to switch back to long mode. It's a bit of a pain with Oanda because you can't hedge and I have to flick back and forth between accounts. Because I was in short mode I missed a lot of long mode ninja retracements (that I would have normally taken).

Quoting shahab8b
I'd like to share something with you.When I stared this thread in Jan the only person that helped me in developing this thread was Patience. With patience gracious help and efforts this thread has been growing.
It's no wonder you are such an awesome trader. You are way too humble Shahab. I'm glad you started this thread anyway. It reminds me of another thread that I used to hang out in that unfortunately got disrupted by a lot of red tape and I got a little tired of "shake that money tree" in you know where It's a wonder you put up with me with my bad jokes and lack of technical skills.

Well as ForexLive pointed out, the end of the world looks like it was postponed. I saw an interesting comment from CaseyResearch.com:

"Without a doubt, if the President's Working Group on Financial Markets [the PPT] hadn't shown up at the beginning of trading... and also again in the late afternoon on Friday... the markets would have melted down again... as that was where they were going in a hurry. Gold was headed north... and the stock markets were headed south. If that had been allowed to happened on a Friday in North America, the bloodbath in the Far East and Europe on Monday would have been catastrophic. That wasn't allowed to happen... but it was oh so obvious... both in the stock market and the gold price.

As I keep saying... the world's current economic, financial and monetary system is on the verge of total collapse. The only thing that concerns me is how soon it will come... and how bad it will be ..... I have a feeling that when gold and silver are allowed to melt up... there will be little or no entry points for anyone sitting on the sidelines."

So, the PPT were at it, the SNB were at it and the BoJ were apparently at it this week. So sometimes it doesn't really matter what your chart is technically telling you - there are some obstacles that are going to put a fly in the ointment.

Haven't really done any chart analysis but I see that shampoo (head and shoulders) on the 4 hour USDX that you pointed out on the E/U chart and we've got a ominous weekly candle as well. Time for some consolidation between 61.8 and 78.6 fibs?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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For newer traders it was probably a good week for them to see how the market can go a bit haywire i.e. carry trades unwinding with commodity currencies, Yen pairs, indices and gold taking the brunt of it with the E/U remaining relatively stable. Even though I watch Bloomberg TV quite a bit, not one analyst has mentioned anything about the E/U having done it's average yearly range (compared to the last 10 years). Isn't it funny how the E/U has stabilised right around it's average yearly range? Maybe I like to look at weird things.

No sentiment reading last night (again). It appears that FXCM are only doing a morning reading now but here's the Weekly Report that was produced on Thursday instead of Friday this week (for some reason).
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Market_Strategy_Weekly_20_May.pdf   752 KB | 348 downloads
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #3,203
  • May 22, 2010 10:19am May 22, 2010 10:19am
Hey shahab!
Thanks for your reply!

I am analyzing E/U 1hr chart at the moment, and I had couple questions to ask you and other traders on this thread.

First, I am aware of the inverted h&s formation and it did work out successfully. But what I am not sure is whether or not it has completed its run at 1.267, which was Friday's high. What's your take on this?
I personally want to wait until 61.8% retracement of May10th-May18th, which is at 1.273. (of course to short)

Second, with all the interventions from European nations, where do you see E/U in couple weeks from now?
I would love to take short position at the level I mentioned above to see a level below 1.2, but that's only what I want to see.

So, what do you guys think about this pair?!
  • #3,204
  • May 22, 2010 10:23am May 22, 2010 10:23am
U/Chf
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Spot FX (mini) USD_CHF (-).png Size: 32 KB
  • #3,205
  • May 22, 2010 10:37am May 22, 2010 10:37am
hi guys
thank you shahab for your great thread

gbpusd1440
http://www.forexrainbow.com/files/1k...emj8_thumb.gif
gbp240
http://www.forexrainbow.com/files/us...ayva_thumb.gif

good luck
  • #3,206
  • May 22, 2010 11:20am May 22, 2010 11:20am
Quoting shahab8b
Hi Carron, thank you for your comments.

I'd like to share something with you.When I stared this thread in Jan the only person that helped me in developing this thread was Patience. With patience gracious help and efforts this thread has been growing. Tuner is my buddy and I vouched for him because he is a good trader and I thnak him for his good posts.
In this regard, I'd like to take the opportunity here and thank Patience for all the efforts and helpful posts and I'd like to say that the credit of developing this thread will definitively go...
Thanks a to Patience as well. I have a feeling that this thread is going to be meeting of great minds and a valuable place of learning and earning.

Wish you all best of Pips.
  • #3,207
  • May 22, 2010 12:02pm May 22, 2010 12:02pm
here is my 2 cents.
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  • #3,208
  • May 22, 2010 12:14pm May 22, 2010 12:14pm
and here is one GU with possible median line.
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  • #3,209
  • May 23, 2010 1:21am May 23, 2010 1:21am
I do not use COt in my analysis but like know about it & trying to read this thread . Just seeing cot 18 05 2010 & understand nothing as old reports release late & as to how far can be effective before fresh one comes effect ( perhaps got it 3 days late & before about 4 days new , i,e, 21.5 to 25.5 roughly ) & how one can expect before the fresh work as for example eur & usd index.
http://www.forexrazor.com/Analysis/Quick-View.aspx
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmesf.htm

Anybody can explain in short please .
Thanks ,
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #3,210
  • May 23, 2010 1:22am May 23, 2010 1:22am
Quoting cfanfx
thanks for great tread
Thanks,
Quite some reading.
  • #3,211
  • May 23, 2010 1:25am May 23, 2010 1:25am
Quoting fontu
I do not use COt in my analysis but like know about it & trying to read this thread . Just seeing cot 18 05 2010 & understand nothing as old reports release late & as to how far can be effective before fresh one comes effect & how one can expect before the fresh work as for example eur & usd index.
http://www.forexrazor.com/Analysis/Quick-View.aspx
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmesf.htm

Anybody can explain in short please .
Thanks ,
fontu
Ralph explains it in his COT report if you scroll down and also below the currency it self.
Further more he does a good job by releasing trade ideas on daily basis.
  • #3,212
  • May 23, 2010 1:36am May 23, 2010 1:36am
Quoting hutrader
Ralph explains it in his COT report if you scroll down and also below the currency it self.
Further more he does a good job by releasing trade ideas on daily basis.
Thanks , now I see it & hope they will help understanding . Thanks again , fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #3,213
  • May 23, 2010 3:48am May 23, 2010 3:48am
UJ. What you think?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,214
  • May 23, 2010 9:27am May 23, 2010 9:27am
Quoting Victory83
hi guys
thank you shahab for your great thread

gbpusd1440

gbp240


good luck
Hi there, I like the G/U daily set up .A nice and clean chart
  • #3,215
  • May 23, 2010 9:38am May 23, 2010 9:38am
Quoting fontu
I do not use COt in my analysis but like know about it & trying to read this thread . Just seeing cot 18 05 2010 & understand nothing as old reports release late & as to how far can be effective before fresh one comes effect ( perhaps got it 3 days late & before about 4 days new , i,e, 21.5 to 25.5 roughly...
Hi fontu, welcome on board. Well as you have probably noticed the thread is not only about COT. I take purely technical trades too. But I try to trade with the direction of weekly COT analysis most of the time.

I think you probably got your answer but I wanted to say that you cant use COT as a signal or an entry for a trade, it only gives you how the market positing is. For instance , in the beginning of last week we pointed out that A/U long positions and U/J long positioning make their cross A/J vulnerable to a sharp drop due to unwinding in case of dominance of risk aversion.
  • #3,216
  • May 23, 2010 10:36am May 23, 2010 10:36am
Gold
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Spot Gold (-).png Size: 24 KB
  • #3,217
  • May 23, 2010 10:41am May 23, 2010 10:41am
Quoting shahab8b
Gold
Shahab, do you see A/U following the PA of Gold and the S&P this week or A/U following its own path?
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #3,218
  • May 23, 2010 10:51am May 23, 2010 10:51am
Quoting MarcVUM
Shahab, do you see A/U following the PA of Gold and the S&P this week or A/U following its own path?

G'day Marc,
You know traditionally Gold is correlated with A/U but these days we only see 0.71 correlation , S&P 500 correlation with A/U is 0.94. So I expect Aussie follows S&P 500 rather than Gold.

That's only one side of the story, the other side is that I dont know the path of S&P500 for this week, I wont be trading this week till the pic becomes clear to me.
  • #3,219
  • May 23, 2010 11:02am May 23, 2010 11:02am
Quoting shahab8b
G'day Marc,
You know traditionally Gold is correlated with A/U but these days we only see 0.71 correlation , S&P 500 correlation with A/U is 0.94. So I expect Aussie follows S&P 500 rather than Gold.

That's only one side of the story, the other side is that I dont know the path of S&P500 for this week, I wont be trading this week till the pic becomes clear to me.
Thanks. It's strange but I too do not have a clear picture in my head of this weeks trading PA. My thoughts are a quick burst upwards and then another massive sell off. I must stand to the side unless a clear signal presents itself. Good Luck to you this week.
When this baby hits 88 miles per hour, you're gonna see some serious s***.
  • #3,220
  • May 23, 2010 11:30am May 23, 2010 11:30am
I was tracking this free site and saw earlier E/U was at 2583, and is now at 2563... are we looking at a gap down on weekly open?
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