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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #64,501
  • May 21, 2010 7:02am May 21, 2010 7:02am
Quoting bundyraider
Your a bit screwed in the USA unless you go real futures contracts and shares ....as far as I understand.
FXPro and similar brokers provide CFD trading. With CFDs being illegal in the USA it's not an option for you.

You should though be able to find a broker that offers many more currency pairs. It's all you need to get going with.
This perhaps one reason to be a UK resident.
You can spread bet currencies, commodities, indices, stock prices, bonds, interest rates, inflation and probably more.
Britain is very better friendly.
And the big bonus is it is all tax free - every penny of it.
So don't lose as you can't set any of it against your tax bill but even if you are a full time "trader" using spread betting you can't be taxed.
Betting is not a profession or a trade, the law has deemed it to be a habit, like smoking or drinking perhaps but they tax that to hell.
Betting used to be taxed with betting tax at 18%, but they did away with that in 2001, so since then if you are a successful spread better the UK is a total tax haven!
  • #64,502
  • May 21, 2010 7:02am May 21, 2010 7:02am
Quoting bundyraider
Now looking at this. (see new chart snapshot) Using similar approach.
Part 3.

Notice the bottom area where that original 61.8% and PPZ confluence area is.

Pretend this is a daily chart. ...there's a bar that was nearly a DBLHC or Outside bar off of it. IF it WAS a daily you made great mula up to that trend line ...or higher.

Fogot.... those downward pressure areas are around another 61.8 fib (backwards as 38.2 on this chart LOL)
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Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #64,503
  • May 21, 2010 7:13am May 21, 2010 7:13am
Quoting Pinbar
Thanks Bundy


Yes, last night I woke up at 3 am and started messing around with drawing a fibo on the the weekly main moves and then sort of fitting my PPZ in around them.

I think this is about the same. Can't see those fibos though.

Many thanks...Just about to read the last post you made.
Nicely done.

Just remember that just because you've found some PPZs doesn't mean they have to be respected. Use other confluences... Like deep fib retraces and trend lines etc in conjunction with them. That way you annihalate a large amount of the trades that are too close to 50/50 outcomes.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #64,504
  • May 21, 2010 7:15am May 21, 2010 7:15am
Quoting HanSolo
Sorry, I forgot to attach the chart. Here it is.



Thanks emiliolopez. You are right some of the PPZs don't fit so well. It' good to swith timeframes and do some adjustments.

The tail of the PB on the left and the 23.6 would probably have kept me out of this one.
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  • #64,505
  • May 21, 2010 7:20am May 21, 2010 7:20am
Quoting bundyraider
Part 3.
Part 4.

Nice bounce off of 50% and that trend line.

It's at this point I am totally happy to wear my half R% loss. Since I got the analysis right. That bounce is enough that any push passed it is just bad luck , it's just one of those trades that doesn't make my target.

When we hit the 61.8% low again I'm setting to Break Even. If it returns to the B.E. I couldn't give a toss by then. It 's got a better chance of failing if it does so. I move on.
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Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #64,506
  • May 21, 2010 7:22am May 21, 2010 7:22am
Quoting six gun
This perhaps one reason to be a UK resident.
You can spread bet currencies, commodities, indices, stock prices, bonds, interest rates, inflation and probably more.
Britain is very better friendly.
And the big bonus is it is all tax free - every penny of it.
So don't lose as you can't set any of it against your tax bill but even if you are a full time "trader" using spread betting you can't be taxed.
Betting is not a profession or a trade, the law has deemed it to be a habit, like smoking or drinking perhaps but they tax that to hell.
Betting used...
I know.. Similar here. Except the betting tax haven bit. ...damn it. LOL
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #64,507
  • Edited 7:53am May 21, 2010 7:23am | Edited 7:53am
This is the sort of thing I am experimenting loosely with.
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  • #64,508
  • May 21, 2010 7:37am May 21, 2010 7:37am
Quoting HanSolo
Sorry, I forgot to attach the chart. Here it is.



Thanks emiliolopez. You are right some of the PPZs don't fit so well. It' good to swith timeframes and do some adjustments.
Oh Ok.

Yeah, well you are right about the first one.

The second one . Well sometimes they work out, but it's problem is actually the first pinbar! ...The first pinbar created a trouble area that the second one came back to before reversing. You needed faith to trade that one.

This is why I don't like taking trades with that situation. If there were a heap of straight, clean, bearish bars before the 2nd pinbar came along instead, where price moved cleanly without bouncing you'd have a better chance of it getting you some quick movement to manage with. ...Instead the first pin bars low just created a little mini-ppz to screw with your chances.

Does that answer your question? ...Let me know if not.

Keep in mind that the price action on the chart preceding your bars was Strongly bearish last week or two after the Massive bearish bar on the 6th of May. It's pretty much a down trend you are trading against. You can't take "iffy" trades in situations like that.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #64,509
  • May 21, 2010 9:10am May 21, 2010 9:10am
s/r works! and pinbars, too!
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meine augen sind die sterne
  • #64,510
  • May 21, 2010 10:05am May 21, 2010 10:05am
Quoting bundyraider
You should be demoing on FXPRO or similar. A lot more variety to choose from.

You live on FXDD? How small of a position size do FXDD let you go? It'll make it harder if there isn't enough granularity.

Incidently, I just looked at the FXPRO site and it seems the smallest lot one can trade with them is 0.1
  • #64,511
  • May 21, 2010 11:05am May 21, 2010 11:05am
This BUOB off the 60 round number looks good. It's engulfing the prior 3 bars and looks to be testing minor support at 61. Let hope it holds....

-- Danny
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  • #64,512
  • May 21, 2010 11:08am May 21, 2010 11:08am
Quoting bundyraider
The bar will be bigger than most of the others preceding it. An even stronger sign is if a bar blasts through levels that 'should' have held better. Like a major PPZ. A great signal is when a bar breaks the immediate trend line of the trend preceding it easily.

...or a strong retracement within the bar after an exhaustion move. Sush as a great pinbar that is larger than the bars preceding it. ...and closes back close to it's opening. It went a long way...But iut returned all that distance too.
HI Bundy,

Regarding your first example about bar blasting through major, once this happens, do we follow the bar's movement or do we anticipate a retracement back to the major PPZ ( something that Jaroo likes to watch on smaller TF).
For me, it's like " ok, we have something going on here but er, how do we know if it's going to retrace or not to PPZ". This is always a dilema for me.
Any advice?

CY
  • #64,513
  • May 21, 2010 11:21am May 21, 2010 11:21am
Quoting ertorque
HI Bundy,

Regarding your first example about bar blasting through major, once this happens, do we follow the bar's movement or do we anticipate a retracement back to the major PPZ ( something that Jaroo likes to watch on smaller TF).
For me, it's like " ok, we have something going on here but er, how do we know if it's going to retrace or not to PPZ". This is always a dilema for me.
Any advice?

CY
He Cy

I am not bundy, but...at any given moment we have no idea what price is going to do. No one can say for sure yes price will blow through this ppz. Or it will pullback to this zone or that. The idea is to wait for when it DOES do something that we are looking for. That is ok here is a real strong PPZ, lets see what happens when it gets above this zone and IF it does pullback to the area I am watching what happens. If it keeps going you just wave by and its on its way(that is if you missed any entry that fit your criteria).

The whole key to trading is to wait for when things set up for the way you like. Everything else is simply the movements until your next setup.

I hope I didn't interrupt with bundy here

Best
Mike
  • #64,514
  • May 21, 2010 12:03pm May 21, 2010 12:03pm
showing off my unconventional fib plotting scheme. both lines plotted using such but this time i post the picture before price has a chance to react. then ill be back probably next week to see how the things worked out.

feel super free to argue amongst yourselves until then !
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  • #64,515
  • Edited 2:12pm May 21, 2010 1:41pm | Edited 2:12pm
Quoting Jonnyislost
Hey guys

I just signed up but I have been following this thread for a looong time, and have been a member of the PF for 6 months.

Hope noone minds me joining the discussions here
Thanks to everyone that posts here on a regular basis. You guys are great

Here's a trade I took this morning

EUR/USD
4 HOUR
SHORT
PIN, RN, TRENDLINE..
Very nice Jon and welcome.

No one will very mind you joining the discussion.

Classic J16 setup, with a nice amount of supporting confluences.

Its these types of setups that work out as expected yet some will take a loss on it and wonder why. The setup hit its target, the previous bar low. Will it continue lower? Who knows. But we did know where it was likely to go, once it broke. Looks like its testing the 1.2600.

I'll take these all day long.


Jim
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #64,516
  • May 21, 2010 1:55pm May 21, 2010 1:55pm
Quoting Pinbar
It's perfectly true....

Actually, this frustration is good, I can turn it into a driving kind of energy and use it to persevere.

The goal is well worth attaining, the path is long and hard no doubt but a journey of 10, 000 miles starts with a single step.


Hop, Hop HoooooooooP.


EDIT: Sorry Jarroo No NZD/JPY on FXDD it seems.
Olk . . let's go with the Nzd/Usd.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #64,517
  • May 21, 2010 2:01pm May 21, 2010 2:01pm
Quoting Pinbar
They allow 0.01 size trade lots.


Here you go Jarro

I can not say, I am that happy with it though, seems to be missing something. Confidence?
Where's the Weekly chart? I didn't show you a Daily or 4 hour chart. Let's start from the Weekly.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #64,518
  • May 21, 2010 2:59pm May 21, 2010 2:59pm
Quoting HanSolo
Hello jarroo, this is one of my blind spots yet. I surely can tell a very strong from a very weak move. But identifying the ones in between is a real problem for me. The downmove preceding the 1st PB on your GBPJPY daily chart for example: It does not look so strong to me. At least compared to the one before with the big bearish bar (or do you count that in?). So just by its look it would have been a B or an A trade for me.

Could you help me with that? What makes a move a strong or a weak move?

Thank you!
Hans
Quoting bundyraider
The bar will be bigger than most of the others preceding it. An even stronger sign is if a bar blasts through levels that 'should' have held better. Like a major PPZ. A great signal is when a bar breaks the immediate trend line of the trend preceding it easily.

...or a strong retracement within the bar after an exhaustion move. Sush as a great pinbar that is larger than the bars preceding it. ...and closes back close to it's opening. It went a long way...But iut returned all that distance too.
I like that one bundy . .Price cutting through strong PPZ levels or BRNs like butter. That's a good sign that a strong move is going on. lol

"do you count that in?" Absolutley. That didn't happen months ago it happen last week. So yes count that sucker in. Then that 1500 pip monster retraced to a strong Weekly PPZ level at a BRN (140.) that it just cut through then continued down. We see these type of retracements all the time with big moves. A better relatively small PB would be at the ret level at the 140 PPZ with that strong move or with the trend.
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Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #64,519
  • Edited 3:34pm May 21, 2010 3:14pm | Edited 3:34pm
Quoting HanSolo
Hi pinbar,

I'm learning and struggling with PPZ myself. On some messy charts lines make it nearly impossible for me to spot those price flips. So I turned to drawing boxes/zones instead. Maybe this could help you too. I depict my approach in the attached animated charts. I deliberately chose a pair I had a hard time dealing with and that has not such a clear trend.

Some of the lines I drew may be redundant since they are located near BRN.

Another important thing I think is what Mike recently told us about space and traffic. If I combine...

Freaking awsome Hans!! Great post!

1st post material for sure.

How the heck do you do that flashing chart thing? Cool as hell.

Quoting HanSolo
I did it with ImageReady. But I guess there are good free GIF animation tools out there.
Cool.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #64,520
  • May 21, 2010 3:16pm May 21, 2010 3:16pm
what do you think about today's pinbar on german fdax?
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meine augen sind die sterne
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