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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #22,781
  • May 20, 2010 7:40am May 20, 2010 7:40am
Quoting March2011
GU gives TC signal but I pass because it's near res level. :nerd:
good call, also the candle closed far away from 8/21ema. I'm currently trading a gu bounce off that suport (different sys) .... and hoping for my eu trade to recover
  • #22,782
  • May 20, 2010 7:44am May 20, 2010 7:44am
I was also looking for chance to short EURUSD but when I turn to daily and saw that last big green candle, I decided to give it a miss.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #22,783
  • May 20, 2010 8:17am May 20, 2010 8:17am
Quoting davidwu61

You go long when EMA 21 is above SMA 89 and short when EMA 21 is below SMA 89. The angle of the MA should be above +/- 45 degree.

When MA 21, 89 or 200 of a currency pair tangling together or stays close together, the pair is possibly during consolidation. A tight range Bollinger band may indicate the same thing.
David, what do you know when 89 is downtrend, 8 is above 21? Do you still short? EU shorting and longing is like of equal chance now.
  • #22,784
  • May 20, 2010 10:17am May 20, 2010 10:17am
Quoting wuming79
David, what do you know when 89 is downtrend, 8 is above 21? Do you still short? EU shorting and longing is like of equal chance now.
>when 89 is downtrend, 8 is above 21? Do you still short?

This is explained by Phil in his lecture about market rythm, you should review it.

> EU shorting and longing is like of equal chance now.

Last night EU is in trading range. MA's are tangling together, also explained by Phil in his lecture.
  • #22,785
  • May 20, 2010 6:19pm May 20, 2010 6:19pm
Quoting smikester
This is how I see the monthly. With moves like this I don't see trend lines or channels as useful. There is support at 1.24 and 1.23 but in the context of the monthly chart the major next level is 1.19 - 1.17

Attachment

US dollar is bullish across the range of currencies so this will now amplify Euro's fall, in my opinion. I will be looking for retracements towards 1.2450 to add to my shorts. Other than that I just hold on.
Hi Smikester,

On Monthly though not end of the month yet, price managed to close back above 1.2500. Do you think this level is going to become a support and price will slowly go up from here? It does make sense after dropping so much, there is some rebounce. Any comments?
  • #22,786
  • May 20, 2010 10:55pm May 20, 2010 10:55pm
Quoting ashes
good call, also the candle closed far away from 8/21ema. I'm currently trading a gu bounce off that suport (different sys) .... and hoping for my eu trade to recover
Hope you are still riding now
  • #22,787
  • Edited May 21, 2010 12:45am May 20, 2010 11:02pm | Edited May 21, 2010 12:45am
Quoting ashes
went long on eu @1,2404 at 4h candle close, r=100=sl, tp=2r
this trade is risky, that's why I entered with half of my usual risk.

reason:
eu has made it long through 8/21ema and came back to 8ema and bounced off of it and closed above. I also like the macd price divergence.
main problem to this entry is the trendline above, a neckline of a h&s formation.
it is under pressure but that's no guarantee for a break. that's why I entered with 1/2 of usual risk

edit:
sl hit
What a shame your stop got hit otherwise you would have done very well. How frustrating to be right and get stopped out!

It seems that all have hit support now - at least temporarily until they get the energy for the next leg down. EU has hit DAILY trendline and monthly 50% fib, AU has hit support at around 80 level and the DOW is at the 10,000 level. Chances are there could be some consolidation or a shallow retrace coming up. (I have included a chart of the Dow mini since I don't have a chart of the Dow on MT4)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu1d.gif Size: 17 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: ymmod1.gif Size: 17 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: au1d.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #22,788
  • May 20, 2010 11:41pm May 20, 2010 11:41pm
Volatility levels are very high, daily ATR is 240 as opposed to 140, so trade carefully. The Euro has bounced but I think it might be profit taking. I don't see much future for the currency unless Europe gets its fiscal structure tightened.

It's Friday so anything could happen and I'm taking the day off but here is a chart:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd100521h4.gif Size: 18 KB


S/R levels marked in grey. If I were to short I would be looking for something right here.
Gone to a better place
  • #22,789
  • May 21, 2010 12:40am May 21, 2010 12:40am
Quoting smikester
Volatility levels are very high, daily ATR is 240 as opposed to 140, so trade carefully. The Euro has bounced but I think it might be profit taking. I don't see much future for the currency unless Europe gets its fiscal structure tightened.

It's Friday so anything could happen and I'm taking the day off but here is a chart:

Attachment

S/R levels marked in grey. If I were to short I would be looking for something right here.

ya the volatility is insane now
  • #22,790
  • Edited 1:40am May 21, 2010 1:26am | Edited 1:40am
I am not a big fan of going long with the downtrend so strong and so much volatility. However it depends on price action, If it pulls back to the 21 from the 89 and then bounces off the 21 and goes towards the 89 again then it would a valid long according to my understanding of the rules. I am just planning to watch price action today.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu4hr.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #22,791
  • May 21, 2010 1:53am May 21, 2010 1:53am
Quoting xeneric
What a shame your stop got hit otherwise you would have done very well. How frustrating to be right and get stopped out!
yes it sucks, but that's forex
  • #22,792
  • May 21, 2010 1:58am May 21, 2010 1:58am
Quoting ashes
that's forex
Tell me about it...
Gone to a better place
  • #22,793
  • May 21, 2010 6:21am May 21, 2010 6:21am
Nice clean charts smikester, could you please load the MACD you are using with the abbreviations.........cheers

Quoting smikester
Volatility levels are very high, daily ATR is 240 as opposed to 140, so trade carefully. The Euro has bounced but I think it might be profit taking. I don't see much future for the currency unless Europe gets its fiscal structure tightened.

It's Friday so anything could happen and I'm taking the day off but here is a chart:

Attachment

S/R levels marked in grey. If I were to short I would be looking for something right here.
  • #22,794
  • May 21, 2010 6:46am May 21, 2010 6:46am
I decided to add a few more pairs to my market rhythm trading. apart from eurusd and gbpusd I'm going to add audusd, usdjpy, usdcad, usdchf.
because it appears that other pairs can give signals while the main pairs move without clear direction.

I have gone short on uj 4h today after the 8:00 candle of my gmt+2 mt4 had closed below the 8ema. entered with half risk.
3 hours later came a signal on 1h chart, at close of 13:00 candle I entered with another half risk.
took profit on both @89,32
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uj 4h 20.5.10.gif Size: 13 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: uj 1h 20.5.10.gif Size: 13 KB
  • #22,795
  • Edited 11:38am May 21, 2010 6:49am | Edited 11:38am
also have a aud short open, half risk. waiting for 1h confirmation to enter with the other half

edit: reduced sl to -0,5r

edit: sl hit
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au 4h 20.5.10.gif Size: 12 KB
  • #22,796
  • May 21, 2010 7:36am May 21, 2010 7:36am
Quoting Danku
Nice clean charts smikester, could you please load the MACD you are using with the abbreviations.........cheers
There are various versions available. I deleted the levels on mine.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 MACD_Colored_v103.mq4   13 KB | 778 downloads
Gone to a better place
  • #22,797
  • May 21, 2010 7:50am May 21, 2010 7:50am
U deleted the lines...i take it you are a programmer.....are you able to load one where only the zero line appears.....cheers and appreciate very much...nice weekend............

Quoting smikester
There are various versions available. I deleted the levels on mine. Attachment
  • #22,798
  • May 21, 2010 8:48am May 21, 2010 8:48am
Quoting Danku
i take it you are a programmer..
Hehe - no I haven't got a clue. I just went into properties and deleted the levels. You can do that easily.
Gone to a better place
  • #22,799
  • May 21, 2010 9:03am May 21, 2010 9:03am
Quoting smikester
Hehe - no I haven't got a clue. I just went into properties and deleted the levels. You can do that easily.
I have gone into the code and know where to clear the lines. If you need, let me know and I will guide you through the process. I don't want to edit and upload as it is not my property to edit at will and share it around. For individual use, editing should be fine.
  • #22,800
  • May 21, 2010 9:20am May 21, 2010 9:20am
Are you also able to change the colors? I would be very interested to make some adjustments............thanks AlwaysLearn

Quoting AlwaysLearn
I have gone into the code and know where to clear the lines. If you need, let me know and I will guide you through the process. I don't want to edit and upload as it is not my property to edit at will and share it around. For individual use, editing should be fine.
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