Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas | Page 156 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

COT report... futures or futures and options report? 11 replies

EA, GA, GCAD, GJ, GN - Analysis and trade ideas 11 replies

Cot - Report in application to the Forex 2 replies

Fundamental Analysis - Trade Ideas 2 replies

COT report 1 reply

Attachments: Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas
Exit Attachments

Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #3,101
  • May 20, 2010 7:45am May 20, 2010 7:45am
Quoting mahsam
Hi Shahab,

I guess its just my bad luck that i never followed any trades you posted here but I must say your trading skills are off the hook you are a pro trader HATS OFF TO YOU & A SALUTE FROM ME

My current acc is blown up hit margin call yesterday, went to the bank today and wired more money to give it another shot! will be strictly following you starting monday

Regards,

Mahsam Raza

Mahsam, thank you for you comment. Please remember this : people who cant win in forex , are those who cant control their mind and action, they have no discipline.
Trading ,imo, after all is some sort of gambling, each trade is a bet, there is a chance to win and to lose. You need to get a good Odds like when you are betting at online bookies on horse and football match.
The difference between gambling and trading is your technical skills and fundamental knowledge. If you dont acquire and use these skills and rely on your gut feeling and trade without a plan and proper money management you are definitively gambling not trading.

Read the post that I replied to you earlier. Have a plan use proper money management. To be honest with you in long term I cant get more than 2/3 (66%) of the calls right, but with use of RRR of at least 1:1 collective result will be positive.
  • #3,102
  • May 20, 2010 7:50am May 20, 2010 7:50am
Quoting shahab8b
A/J

Do you think A/J is a bargain? think again.
Not now. AJ is going to fall to 70 as it has broken a key 75 level so next support is the psychological 70.

75.30 was a 38.2% retracement of weekly all time hi-low and now we've broken below is so the next obvious target is 23.6% at 67.50ish but prior to that is 70.

and current market condition also back it.

but what I am saying is, I will buy at lower rather then sell at these levels.

even if it takes a few weeks/months, I am prepared to wait but I wont sell AU. Its just my personal choice.
  • #3,103
  • May 20, 2010 7:50am May 20, 2010 7:50am
Quoting shahab8b
Short CAD/J at 87.70, SL=90.70

Short GBP/J at 132 SL=135

G/J, Our short trade looks good
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj2e.gif Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gj2t.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #3,104
  • May 20, 2010 7:59am May 20, 2010 7:59am
Quoting shahab8b
Mahsam, thank you for you comment. Please remember this : people who cant win in forex , are those who cant control their mind and action, they have no discipline.
Trading ,imo, after all is some sort of gambling, each trade is a bet, there is a chance to win and to lose. You need to get a good Odds like when you are betting at online bookies on horse and football match.
The difference between gambling and trading is your technical skills and fundamental knowledge. If you dont acquire and use these skills and rely on your gut feeling and trade...
Hi Shahab,

Yes you are absolutely right i have realised that it was due to me getting greedy and over trading i blew up my account! I am taking full responsibility for that & honestly i dont regret wht happened yesterday it was bound to happen one day or another cuz you are right I was gambling and not trading, but this time arnd will be more focused and actually plan my trades & only execute them after proper analysis not just trying to get on board when i see prices dropping or falling! thanks for your advice Shahab I really appreciate it m looking forward to starting a new fresh week come monday & trading aside/along the traders here! & will be following you ond Saxon closely cuz both your thread's & you guys personally have been very helpful. pls. keep up the good work

Mahsam
  • #3,105
  • May 20, 2010 8:00am May 20, 2010 8:00am
Quoting puks
Not now. AJ is going to fall to 70 as it has broken a key 75 level so next support is the psychological 70.

75.30 was a 38.2% retracement of weekly all time hi-low and now we've broken below is so the next obvious target is 23.6% at 67.50ish but prior to that is 70.

and current market condition also back it.

but what I am saying is, I will buy at lower rather then sell at these levels.

even if it takes a few weeks/months, I am prepared to wait but I wont sell AU. Its just my personal choice.
Hi mate, welcome back.
Why not selling A/U? The trend has reversed even in weekly chart, the R levels are well defined. I'll be selling at the rallies.US/UK/EU.equities fall have not accelerated yet, you think this fall is too much? This is wave three of 08 fall, it means we have been in wave 2 correction since March 09.there is a good chance that A/U falls below .60 before the year ends.
  • #3,106
  • May 20, 2010 8:12am May 20, 2010 8:12am
A/U

I closed my short positions from .8850 at .8280 (+570 pips on my last short)

My plan is selling on the re-test of the double top neckline.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: au3a.gif Size: 23 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: au3da.gif Size: 27 KB
  • #3,107
  • May 20, 2010 8:17am May 20, 2010 8:17am
Quoting shahab8b
Hi mate, welcome back.
Why not selling A/U? The trend has reversed even in weekly chart, the R levels are well defined. I'll be selling at the rallies.US/UK/EU.equities fall have not accelerated yet, you think this fall is too much? This is wave three of 08 fall, it means we have been in wave 2 correction since March 09.there is a good chance that A/U falls below .60 before the year ends.
Thanks mate.

lets see how things play out but from fundamental perspective, I find it more attractive to short cable and euro. Both against yen and dollar.

lets see.

hOw is your trading going on? I gather you're milking some great pips.

All the best mate...

Cheers
  • #3,108
  • May 20, 2010 8:23am May 20, 2010 8:23am
Quoting puks
Thanks mate.

lets see how things play out but from fundamental perspective, I find it more attractive to short cable and euro. Both against yen and dollar.

lets see.

hOw is your trading going on? I gather you're milking some great pips.

All the best mate...

Cheers

Yea, you need to have an eye on equities and fundamental.
Well, trading has been good, but I'm exhausted, need a break from the killing stress.
  • #3,109
  • May 20, 2010 8:26am May 20, 2010 8:26am
Quoting shahab8b
Short NZDUSD at .6835 SL=50

Closed 2nd short Kiwi at .6720 (+115)
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: kiwi2a.gif Size: 20 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: kiwi2b.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #3,110
  • May 20, 2010 8:37am May 20, 2010 8:37am
Hi shahab8b,

Thanks for the thread, It is very helpful in understanding COT analysis.

whats your take on direction of G/Y?
I have attached chart to show you my understanding of PA, do you see the simillar trend ?

Thanks a lot in advance
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPJPY_trending.JPG Size: 321 KB
  • #3,111
  • May 20, 2010 8:39am May 20, 2010 8:39am
S&P 500 futures:

For newbies ; look at the S turned R levels, you should look at these levels for your short entry on a down trend
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sp3d.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #3,112
  • May 20, 2010 8:40am May 20, 2010 8:40am
Quoting shahab8b
S&P 500 futures:

For newbies ; look at the S turned R levels, you should look at these levels for your short entry on a down trend
Hi shahab8b,

When you get a sec can you check your PM.

Thanks
Let Price determine your future!
  • #3,113
  • May 20, 2010 9:18am May 20, 2010 9:18am
Hi,

take a look at all yen pairs good god everything is just going south against the yen! I wonder low much lower they can possibly go...??


Mahsam
  • #3,114
  • May 20, 2010 9:29am May 20, 2010 9:29am
Quoting mahsam
Hi,

take a look at all yen pairs good god everything is just going south against the yen! I wonder low much lower they can possibly go...??


Mahsam
Yeah Anyone know what the BoJ's pain threshold is? I don't want to get caught in the bungy
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #3,115
  • May 20, 2010 9:33am May 20, 2010 9:33am
Quoting Patience
Yeah Anyone know what the BoJ's pain threshold is? I don't want to get caught in the bungy
I dont have much knowledge trading the forex market but as far as I have seen in the past once the BOJ intervenes then the yen starts to weaken again right...?


Mahsam
  • #3,116
  • May 20, 2010 9:36am May 20, 2010 9:36am
Quoting mahsam
I dont have much knowledge trading the forex market but as far as I have seen in the past once the BOJ intervenes then the yen starts to weaken again right...?


Mahsam
That's correct
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #3,117
  • May 20, 2010 9:38am May 20, 2010 9:38am
Quoting Patience
That's correct

Thanks for the clarification! but one thing I dont understand why would japan not want their currency to get stronger...?? my understanding to this is since japan relies heavily on their exports so a stronger yen means less money coming into the country or something like that..?? right..? I dont knw if that sounds stupid or what not so again m a newbie


Mahsam
  • #3,118
  • May 20, 2010 9:53am May 20, 2010 9:53am
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
A/U

I closed my short positions from .8850 at .8280 (+570 pips on my last short)

My plan is selling on the re-test of the double top neckline.
Congrats man! It would even have gone down to your 82 target now
what a drop. But it didn't take weeks now .but only 4 days :o
I was too much expecting the retrace and cashed in yesterday (A/U, C/J, U/C, A/J) and had my sell limits ready to reload.

Same with my indices futures. now I could kick my a** to cash them in earlier today before the real sell-off really started. :o But still took a nice profit on them. Next opportunities will come.
Not jumping in now. Lets see if we get a bigger correction now.

Must be a deeply green week for your account. Hats off!
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #3,119
  • May 20, 2010 10:13am May 20, 2010 10:13am
Quoting Tuner
Congrats man! It would even have gone down to your 82 target now
what a drop. But it didn't take weeks now .but only 4 days :o
I was too much expecting the retrace and cashed in yesterday (A/U, C/J, U/C, A/J) and had my sell limits ready to reload.

Same with my indices futures. now I could kick my a** to cash them in earlier today before the real sell-off really started. :o But still took a nice profit on them. Next opportunities will come.
Not jumping in now. Lets see if we get a bigger correction now.

Must be a [b][color=DarkGreen]deeply...

Oh, I told you you need to hold them!!! why did you do that???
  • #3,120
  • May 20, 2010 10:18am May 20, 2010 10:18am
Hi Shahab,

I just wanted to ask you which primary market do you prefer to trade, LODON, TOKYO, or NY... also, when does your usual trading day start and when it ends....??


Thanks


Mahsam
23 traders viewing now