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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #3,081
  • May 19, 2010 11:16pm May 19, 2010 11:16pm
Quoting cwix
Here's an alternate count on gold to consider IF we break the high. Target top at 1360 to 1381.

Yea, good chart; however ,I consider it topped already, a beak above 1228 will open your targets.
  • #3,082
  • May 19, 2010 11:16pm May 19, 2010 11:16pm
Quoting shahab8b
I got a short at 1.1570 as planned, I set my SL 7 pips
Closed at 1.1555
  • #3,083
  • May 19, 2010 11:22pm May 19, 2010 11:22pm
Tuner, we got a down gap on DAx
keep your position ,things will get more ugly going into Fri, I'm sure people will start cashing their stocks and shares with this bearish chart
  • #3,084
  • May 19, 2010 11:26pm May 19, 2010 11:26pm
Even Gold and Silver are falling alongside equities, that's not a good sign for investors.
  • #3,085
  • May 19, 2010 11:28pm May 19, 2010 11:28pm
Quoting shahab8b
Short CAD/J at 87.70, SL=90.70

Short GBP/J at 132 SL=135

Closed One G/J short at 130.30 (+170 pips)
  • #3,086
  • May 19, 2010 11:30pm May 19, 2010 11:30pm
Quoting shahab8b
Short CAD/J at 87.70, SL=90.70

Short GBP/J at 132 SL=135

closed one C/J short at 86.33 (+137)
  • #3,087
  • May 19, 2010 11:33pm May 19, 2010 11:33pm
Hi Shahab,
do you still have your aussie short open?
  • #3,088
  • May 19, 2010 11:33pm May 19, 2010 11:33pm
Quoting shahab8b
Short E/U at 1.2380, SL=1.2450

Short G/U 1.4425 SL=1.4525

Both are in good positions to short, cant post the chart atm, will do it later.
Closed one G/U short at 1.4335 (+90 pips)
  • #3,089
  • May 19, 2010 11:34pm May 19, 2010 11:34pm
Quoting aragorn123
Hi Shahab,
do you still have your aussie short open?

Yes, that one is a long term position ,however I think I'll get my target sooner than I thought.
  • #3,090
  • May 19, 2010 11:35pm May 19, 2010 11:35pm
Yup same here. When did you get in? I got in at 0.8725.

I am also watching it...if it hits 0.82 while I am awake then good else I will have to just set the limit and go to sleep.
  • #3,091
  • May 19, 2010 11:37pm May 19, 2010 11:37pm
Quoting shahab8b
Buy limit U/Cad at 1.0400-0410 SL=1.0250

Closed one U/Cad long from 1.0410 at 1.0520 (+110 pips) , 2nd position SL>B/E
  • #3,092
  • May 20, 2010 1:19am May 20, 2010 1:19am
Quoting shahab8b
Why did you exit? You can mark my word: GOLD and Indices will fall , beyond anyone's imagination. I see Gold at $850 in 3-4 months.

Hi Shahab, late to be trading in US isnt it? Im in S.E Asia at the moment - a far more reasonable local afternoon and evening start, for european and US opens

Gold here is odd I think.
Lately XAUs typical dynamic of being little more than another USD cross has been subsumed by what its supposed to be - namely a safe haven that goes up when risk is taken off the table. So IF Gold continues to slide, what does that imply? Its back to being a USD cross(and USD should continue to rally?), or that people are hoovering up risk and theres no need for safe havens?
Its also an extremely anemic end to a ten year bull run in such a popular commod, no? Usually commods blow-out at the end; Gold has been crawling of late. I can see the wave argument on a daily graph, it just seems a suspiciously limp end to such a huge bull run, and an uncharacteristically formal decline from the recent high aswell for that matter. Oh well, stops in and all that. I should add I've only traded Gold once or twice, ever!
  • #3,093
  • May 20, 2010 2:40am May 20, 2010 2:40am
Looking forward to following this thread.

Regards,
NeoRio
Sentiment: Short on cash. Long on hope.
  • #3,094
  • May 20, 2010 2:46am May 20, 2010 2:46am
Quoting tpaulbeaumon
Patience - Any chance of those sentiment details you very genorously post occasionally I certainly appreciate the insight. Cheers.
Hi tpaulbeaumon - they've been a little sporadic lately. FXCM usually do one in the morning and one in the evening but they haven't been doing the evening one for about the last week. Here's today's reading anyway.

SSI: USDCHF Surge to 1.1600 Rouses 16% Decline in Longs
Thursday, 20 May 2010 09:30 GMT
Written by Michael Wright

FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index (SSI) Statistics:

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SSI Details:

EURUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.07 as nearly 52% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.28 as 56% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 1.4% higher than yesterday and 16.8% weaker since last week. Short positions are 15.0% lower than yesterday and 39.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 7.8% weaker than yesterday and 111.0% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.

GBPUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at 1.48 as nearly 60% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.26 as 56% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 5.4% higher than yesterday and 20.8% weaker since last week. Short positions are 10.1% lower than yesterday and 9.8% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.4% weaker than yesterday and 95.3% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD losses.

GBPJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPJPY stands at 2.19 as nearly 69% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.04 as 67% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 5.2% higher than yesterday and 8.2% stronger since last week. Short positions are 2.3% lower than yesterday and 2.7% weaker since last week. Open interest is 2.7% stronger than yesterday and 114.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPJPY losses.

USDJPY - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDJPY stands at 2.31 as nearly 70% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 2.27 as 69% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 1.2% lower than yesterday and 7.7% stronger since last week. Short positions are 2.9% lower than yesterday and 14.0% weaker since last week. Open interest is 1.7% weaker than yesterday and 105.2% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDJPY losses.

USDCAD - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCAD stands at 1.29 as nearly 56% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.54 as 61% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 11.1% lower than yesterday and 24.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 6.6% higher than yesterday and 7.3% stronger since last week. Open interest is 4.1% weaker than yesterday and 88.7% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCAD losses.

USDCHF - The ratio of long to short positions in the USDCHF stands at -1.85 as nearly 65% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.42 as 59% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 15.7% lower than yesterday and 16.4% weaker since last week. Short positions are 10.2% higher than yesterday and 15.0% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.5% weaker than yesterday and 102.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more USDCHF gains.

AUDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the AUDUSD stands at 1.83 as nearly 65% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.79 as 64% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 2.5% lower than yesterday and 12.0% weaker since last week. Short positions are 5.0% lower than yesterday and 28.9% weaker since last week. Open interest is 3.4% weaker than yesterday and 66.9% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more AUDUSD losses.

NZDUSD - The ratio of long to short positions in the NZDUSD stands at 1.63 as nearly 62% of traders are long. Yesterday, the ratio was at 1.60 as 61% of open positions were long. In detail, long positions are 10.4% lower than yesterday and 7.9% stronger since last week. Short positions are 12.5% lower than yesterday and 40.8% weaker since last week. Open interest is 11.2% weaker than yesterday and 67.3% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more NZDUSD losses.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #3,095
  • May 20, 2010 2:54am May 20, 2010 2:54am
Quoting hayseed
hey p and elitetrader..... thanks again for the heads up..... those 3 shorts yall scared me out of would have been deep in the red ketchup now....

...... owe you both a meal at the local pizza hut......

//----
....... might be biting off more than i can chew but a short right now sure looks tastey..... condiments optional.....h
Even though I survived 2008, the speed in which the market can decline still amazes me. Have we got blood on the streets yet? Probably not. Way too many retail traders long on USD/JPY and GBP/JPY for my liking. C'mon Yen, give us one of your famous spike downs which will, no doubt, be met with BoJ intervention
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #3,096
  • May 20, 2010 2:58am May 20, 2010 2:58am
Quoting Patience
Hi tpaulbeaumon - they've been a little sporadic lately. FXCM usually do one in the morning and one in the evening but they haven't been doing the evening one for about the last week. Here's today's reading anyway.
[...]

Much obliged sir

So the 'crowd' have bet on reversals in most crosses other than EURUSD, where they're backing the recent trend. That said the EURUSD short positioning is marginally short biased, whereas in the otehr crosses the reversal bias is a little more pronounced. Cheers
  • #3,097
  • May 20, 2010 3:15am May 20, 2010 3:15am
Quoting tpaulbeaumon
Much obliged sir

So the 'crowd' have bet on reversals in most crosses other than EURUSD, where they're backing the recent trend. That said the EURUSD short positioning is marginally short biased, whereas in the otehr crosses the reversal bias is a little more pronounced. Cheers
De nada. Well they were short on A/U all the way up, so they are probably going to be long all the way down
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #3,098
  • May 20, 2010 5:01am May 20, 2010 5:01am
Absolutely smashed....

Can't figure out what the hack happened to my beloved AUD . I am painfully watching it dive while I am out.

When market settles down, I will buy AUD with both hands.

let bears enjoy their ride. Bulls will be back with vengeance.
  • #3,099
  • May 20, 2010 5:08am May 20, 2010 5:08am
Hi Shahab,

I guess its just my bad luck that i never followed any trades you posted here but I must say your trading skills are off the hook you are a pro trader HATS OFF TO YOU & A SALUTE FROM ME

My current acc is blown up hit margin call yesterday, went to the bank today and wired more money to give it another shot! will be strictly following you starting monday

Regards,

Mahsam Raza
  • #3,100
  • May 20, 2010 5:30am May 20, 2010 5:30am
A/J

Do you think A/J is a bargain? think again.
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