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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #3,041
  • May 19, 2010 4:56pm May 19, 2010 4:56pm
A/U: after an impulsive fall like this the best tools are S>R and fib levels to try short, trend mid-term is down so we wont see .9400 anytime this year
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  • #3,042
  • May 19, 2010 5:06pm May 19, 2010 5:06pm
Quoting shahab8b
...
Nice charts Shahab, did you take that EU short? Stop's almost to BE right now
  • #3,043
  • May 19, 2010 5:07pm May 19, 2010 5:07pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
Hi, I cashed in most of them when I saw E/U heading north, but still have few left. did you cash in your DAX? that's a heavy position contract wise.
As I was away I missed the right point to cash in.
--> markets were already closed when I logged in again.
So all still open for now. overall still in the plus.. but only a lil of it left. grrr.
The DAX as well. We might see it gap up to open above my entry again now.

Can't close it at the moment. so I will have to wait for the opening.
atill got another pending at UTL. if it makes it up through the weekly pivot
but the plan was actually not to hold the original position up to those levels...

lets see...
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"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #3,044
  • May 19, 2010 6:37pm May 19, 2010 6:37pm
Quoting Tuner
As I was away I missed the right point to cash in.
--> markets were already closed when I logged in again.
Turner, I think you may be suffering from "I want to get every pip" disease. I've had several nasty bouts with it myself. You get killed on the retraces and have regrets. A few of suggestions from the school of hard knocks: 1.) Never, never, never walk away from your trade station (or fall asleep) without a stop loss in place. 2.) Once you are in the money and are past the ADR from your entry put a trailing stop on that starts out at a few pips on the money side of your entry. 3.) If you can enter with 2 lots then when things are looking pretty good close one and put a hard stop at BE (or a trailing stop.) Move your SL to the point where you closed the first lot as soon as practical. Don't get greedy, don't worry about the pips you could have had if you had just stayed in the trade longer, capture the fat middle of moves and you will be more likely to have steady growth in your account.

May you become an FX millionaire!
  • #3,045
  • May 19, 2010 7:06pm May 19, 2010 7:06pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting cwix
Turner, I think you may be suffering from "I want to get every pip" disease....
cwix...
Thanks for the advice..
This actually used to be..and now still is my problem. actually I do always set a stopLoss and also trail it as soon as I feel comfortable.
Ended up at BE many times with trades coming back from +100 or something.

With my account-size not allowing me to open 2 or more positions it is always a tough decision. I started to do what you explain back on the micro-account. Allowing me to build up positions on more separate trades and still diversifying in order to avoid too much correlation.

Ya. Maybe I was gettin greedy today. seein the trades goin to my direction so nicely. Was about to close them but waited a lil too long. Had to leave (actually only for 20 or 30 minutes.. but it turned out to be 2 hours. which was too long in that case. so almost back up to BE. will have to see what the opening level on DAX will be tomorrow and decide then what to do.

This is lesson is hard to learn..I think for most of us (newbies especially)
But I will work on that and on myself...
consitant profits first..then the millionaire maybe

Thanks again.. I'll keep in mind what you said.

Regards, Tuner
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #3,046
  • May 19, 2010 7:15pm May 19, 2010 7:15pm
Quoting thadakman

So, my plan is to start building some EUR longs now (against the AUD and CAD; it's in no man's land on the charts, but I feel relatively safe scaling in with small positions) and the USD (when/if it gets in the 1.22's) and also some gold shorts beginning at 1245.... anyone have any thoughts/plans for a medium-term outlook.
Update from my post on the weekend:

Well that certainly paid off! lol Had to cash out after a day like this... Gold pulled back nice to, but missed my 1245 entry by a hair as it only climbed to 1242 earlier this week.

Did anyone notice the GPB/AUD chart? They finally closed the gap down from February 28th... anyway, I'm going to start building some short positions at this level in the 1.70's all the way up to 1.73's if it get's that high... and plan to sell mid 1.60's.

Just thought I'd throw that trade idea out there if anyone's looking for a currency pair they don't usually trade... I don't post too much on here but I have gotten some good ideas from other posters and like my previous post about the EUR/cross longs (which I hope some people caught), I like to throw out some trade ideas in return that I feel can have pretty good risk/reward outcomes

Note: I'm usually a contrarian trader, so these types of plays usually come fast and furious when/if they do come, like today.
  • #3,047
  • May 19, 2010 8:28pm May 19, 2010 8:28pm
E/U

G/U
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  • #3,048
  • May 19, 2010 8:44pm May 19, 2010 8:44pm
Quoting shahab8b
Short CAD/J at 87.70, SL=90.70

Short GBP/J at 132 SL=135
The charts:
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  • #3,049
  • May 19, 2010 9:09pm May 19, 2010 9:09pm
Quoting Tuner
cwix...
Thanks for the advice..
This actually used to be..and now still is my problem. actually I do always set a stopLoss and also trail it as soon as I feel comfortable.
Ended up at BE many times with trades coming back from +100 or something.

With my account-size not allowing me to open 2 or more positions it is always a tough decision. I started to do what you explain back on the micro-account. Allowing me to build up positions on more separate trades and still diversifying in order to avoid too much correlation.

Ya. Maybe I was gettin...

This is something that still happens to me. I am still haunted by the memory of my first FX trade ever... I was up 50% on my account on the first trade but was so full of myself that I was thinking that I could double the account on my first trade by adding up to it.. Well.. I never put any type of stop or anything and ended up going back to BE... ;-(.. What a lesson.
  • #3,050
  • Edited 9:23pm May 19, 2010 9:13pm | Edited 9:23pm
Gold update, the precision of fib ext never stops to surprise me.But sometimes it's not easy to draw it with the right level of swings
#2785
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  • #3,051
  • May 19, 2010 9:41pm May 19, 2010 9:41pm
Hi Guys,

Is it a good time to buy gold ? I had some luck shorting the EU then went long yday which also paid off (after a very long time).

Trying to get my head around gold is it a good buying oppoutunity now ??

Shane
  • #3,052
  • May 19, 2010 9:42pm May 19, 2010 9:42pm
AUDCAD hit the target (+350 pips), congratulation to whoever have faith in the call and took the trade with me.

#2828
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  • #3,053
  • May 19, 2010 9:54pm May 19, 2010 9:54pm
Quoting shanem
Hi Guys,

Is it a good time to buy gold ? I had some luck shorting the EU then went long yday which also paid off (after a very long time).

Trying to get my head around gold is it a good buying oppoutunity now ??

Shane

Hi Shane, I wonder what made you think that bearish candle is a buy opportunity for Gold?
  • #3,054
  • May 19, 2010 10:21pm May 19, 2010 10:21pm
To me EW count is perfectly completed (if you look at my previous posts in 3-4 month ago I called for a new high).
Nothing would have given me more enjoyment than shorting A/U and Gold- as patience said it's like an addiction, at least for me.

My plan to short the beast:

Sell limit at 1205 & 1220 SL=1242 (I made some changes to my previous trade set up which was Short at 1205 and sl=1228)

I still think we should not see 1228 if the count is right but I use wider SL as my TP are not less than 500 pips.
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  • #3,055
  • May 19, 2010 10:38pm May 19, 2010 10:38pm
FTSE100 futures:
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  • #3,056
  • May 19, 2010 10:43pm May 19, 2010 10:43pm
DAX futures, as expected, that one was so easy.wasn't it?
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  • #3,057
  • May 19, 2010 11:23pm May 19, 2010 11:23pm
Hi Shahab,
Been away for a while and just got back home. I have been trading the EU/US and GBP/US for the past 2 months, I cashed in all my shorts yesterday and went short this morning again on both pais (1.2410 and 1.4408 respectively). I noticed your earlier comment about R at 1.2445, I can see that on my charts bit apart from S at 1.2319 and 1.4465, I cant see anything else for a while. What is your take on these two pairs? They have been sitting fairly steady at mid levels, and there isnt any major news due out. I am faily heavy on my lot sizes, I hope if its the calm before the storm, I am not sitting on the wrong side.
Find a job that you love and you dont have to work again in your life.
  • #3,058
  • May 20, 2010 12:06am May 20, 2010 12:06am
Short NZDUSD at .6835 SL=50
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  • #3,059
  • May 20, 2010 12:16am May 20, 2010 12:16am
Quoting tradoholic
Hi Shahab,
Been away for a while and just got back home. I have been trading the EU/US and GBP/US for the past 2 months, I cashed in all my shorts yesterday and went short this morning again on both pais (1.2410 and 1.4408 respectively). I noticed your earlier comment about R at 1.2445, I can see that on my charts bit apart from S at 1.2319 and 1.4465, I cant see anything else for a while. What is your take on these two pairs? They have been sitting fairly steady at mid levels, and there isnt any major news due out. I am faily heavy on my lot sizes,...
Hi there, welcome back
You will be fine ;no worries. they wont break R another fall. But I prefer short N/U, A/U and long U/Cad. I remember you trade Gold and indices too,I'm bearish on all of them.
  • #3,060
  • May 20, 2010 12:20am May 20, 2010 12:20am
Scalping short Gold at 1196 SL=1201
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