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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #22,761
  • May 19, 2010 2:07pm May 19, 2010 2:07pm
Quoting lukis
thanks ashes, really helpful
now I see what you mean market rythm
how you confirm entry point?
do you switch to minor timeframes when entering? or you just follow H4 candles
thx
you're welcome, usually I enter on the close of the signal candle on 4h
  • #22,762
  • May 19, 2010 5:36pm May 19, 2010 5:36pm
Quoting khashaYaR
Hello Everybody
I hope You had good weeks as me.
I was busy at university, and of course in forex.
sorry for no post.
I have a question about MACD, from Philip or other friends;
Hello Philip
I had followed the trend these two weeks, as You said in Your docs.
And I gained lots of pips, really huge, more than 2000 pips in 3 pairs.
I have to thank You, bcz all I know came from You.
oooh, my Question?!
As You see in EU 4H MACD, there seemed to be a TC pattern and the MAs are in good positions.
It's good for sell, but the price comes up and the MACD...
I hope you would not think I'm being negative.

The thing is,

First, you might have got it, if that is so, congratulation.

The other possibility is, we have very strong trends last two weeks, and if
you just blindly follow the signal and keep the stop loss far enough, you will make a lot of pips.

The reason I brings this up is that there are a lot of posts from newbie complaining about their brokers,
saying that they have made a lot of money on their demo accounts, and lost all of their capital after they go live.

What actually happened is that they run into a strong trend and makes a lot of pips and decides to go live.
Once they go live, the market enters into consolidation phase, which usually comes after a strong trend.

What happens to you in the last two weeks is a good thing, but don't let it go over your head until you proves your trading skill for all kinds of market conditions.
  • #22,763
  • May 19, 2010 7:07pm May 19, 2010 7:07pm
On the Daily chart, we have just had a bullish engulfing candle. Be careful on any shorts.
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  • #22,764
  • May 19, 2010 7:57pm May 19, 2010 7:57pm
Quoting davidwu61

What actually happened is that they run into a strong trend and makes a lot of pips and decides to go live.
Once they go live, the market enters into consolidation phase, which usually comes after a strong trend.

.
Hi David, I totally agree with you...I didn't not put SL as far as 21ma in 4hr. I reduce my risk to the previous swing highs. So everytime when EU have big retracements, I could figure if it is time to long or short....Any suggestions on anticipating trend change? Will HL signal on a whole number price or support be good?
  • #22,765
  • May 19, 2010 8:08pm May 19, 2010 8:08pm
[quote=khashaYaR;3738679]Hello Everybody
I hope You had good weeks as me.
I was busy at university, and of course in forex.
sorry for no post.
I have a question about MACD, from Philip or other friends;
Hello Philip
I had followed the trend these two weeks, as You said in Your docs.
And I gained lots of pips, really huge, more than 2000 pips in 3 pairs.
I have to thank You, bcz all I know came from You.
oooh, my Question?!
As You see in EU 4H MACD, there seemed to be a TC pattern and the MAs are in good positions.
It's good for sell, but the price comes up and the MACD is going to make RB pattern.
Should I close my position or let hit the sl?
Thank You too much



khasha:

The range for that candle was huge, about 170 pips. Price has pulled away from the 8ema and has formed a gap. You'll see that when this happens, price can stall or come back up to catch up with the 8ema. This isn't one of the original indicators for the method but I posted this waaay back somewhere.

Either way, on long moves like that I would recommend getting in on sell limit orders to make that stop less. Also, Phillip changed the methodology a little and put rounded tops and bottoms on the back burner because these were more or less trying to pick tops and bottoms. Now the focus is re-entries like you stated in the TC.
  • #22,766
  • May 19, 2010 8:22pm May 19, 2010 8:22pm
Quoting time1300
I have a question for anyone who wish to answer it and how they approach it....
Time:

You have just commented on one of the things I love about this mehtod. I know it's just the 8ema and if you only plot the 8ema and no other indy's you'll see these runs often. But, using the other indys does help with the rhythm and direction of things. You're exactly right about the fundamentals and indys all lining up to make a trend extremely strong and making it hard to find entries on the 4hr. During times like this, I simply switch this to the 1hr chart and "use it like the 4hr". You simply have to go with it and see the 1hr as the 4hr. This is where the concept of the BladeRunner works very very well.

Here's a 1hr chart. If you couldn't see the upper left you would think that this could very well be a 4hr chart by the way the indys look and how price is moving with the 21. This works only like how you just stated, or how I like to refer it to as, when price is "riding the 8".

I'm short per the 1hr at 2382, 2372, and 2371 at that double top. I'm being very aggressive here simply because I was looking for a pullback (a few pages back) and now I feel it is over. The fundamentals are there and the techs. I realize that price closed above the 21 but with the double top....that did it for me...again I'm aggressive here. A double bottom around 2150ish would be great!!

Either way, when things are fast like this, I go down to the 1hr and use that.
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  • #22,767
  • May 19, 2010 8:26pm May 19, 2010 8:26pm
Quoting Morelands
On the Daily chart, we have just had a bullish engulfing candle. Be careful on any shorts.

I see it but I gotta take a shot...just exited one a few mins ago...
  • #22,768
  • May 19, 2010 8:36pm May 19, 2010 8:36pm
[quote=Palmer;3739946][quote=khashaYaR;3738679]Hello Everybody
I hope You had good weeks as me.
I was busy at university, and of course in forex.
sorry for no post.
I have a question about MACD, from Philip or other friends;
Hello Philip
I had followed the trend these two weeks, as You said in Your docs.
And I gained lots of pips, really huge, more than 2000 pips in 3 pairs.
I have to thank You, bcz all I know came from You.
oooh, my Question?!
As You see in EU 4H MACD, there seemed to be a TC pattern and the MAs are in good positions.
It's good for sell, but the price comes up and the MACD is going to make RB pattern.
Should I close my position or let hit the sl?
Thank You too much



Palmer,
I would be very careful. Based on my wave count, this could be the end to the down run from 1.51. I'm not picking a bottom, I'm just apprehensive about shorts. We could be forming a head and shlds. By the way, congrat on the pips. Wish I capitalizes like that
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  • #22,769
  • May 19, 2010 8:52pm May 19, 2010 8:52pm
I read ya brother, thanks. I've exited two, b/e on the last. MACD making higher lows too using the 'standard' 12,26,9 settings...

Out of town tomorrow, Friday and Monday so this is it for the week.
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  • #22,770
  • May 19, 2010 10:47pm May 19, 2010 10:47pm
Quoting Palmer
Time:

You have just commented on one of the things I love about this mehtod. I know it's just the 8ema and if you only plot the 8ema and no other indy's you'll see these runs often. But, using the other indys does help with the rhythm and direction of things. You're exactly right about the fundamentals and indys all lining up to make a trend extremely strong and making it hard to find entries on the 4hr. During times like this, I simply switch this to the 1hr chart and "use it like the 4hr". You simply have to go with it and see the 1hr as the...
Hey palmer, thanks again for that overview, I wanted to put that out there as others might also learn from it and it's great to see another veteran trader see the price action as myself and thank you again for your analysis and advice. I know you mentioned you are aggressive here with the short and I wanted to bring up a point here.

I am sure many of us can agree that the overall trend right now is to the south side (short) technically and fundamentally and I also would bet that we will be going even lower and even testing the 1.20000 level in the coming months. As far as my analysis which I start from the Daily first, the daily has made a bullish bar which can in turn mean a reversal or a retrace in our case and going to the 4H, we could see price has finally closed above the 21ema since may 10 and as per our rules, after a trend, price tends to close above 21 ema, pull back to it (which is has as I am writing this) and pull away to the 89sma (which is the 21ema on the Daily). just wanted to put that out there as well as my analysis...........but my overall bias is to the short side myself and am waiting for that retracement for a reentry. Again great to see you active on the thread my friend.
Keeping Life Simple
  • #22,771
  • May 19, 2010 11:20pm May 19, 2010 11:20pm

GBPUSD – Price is resting in between EMA8 & 21 in H4. MACD has not given any signal yet. Turn to H1 and notice price went above SMA89 but fail to hold. Price is testing SMA89 now.

EURUSD – Price is resting above EMA8 & 21 in H4. MACD has not given any signal yet. Turn to H1 and notice price went above SMA89 remain above it.

So which is a better bet? Any comments?
  • #22,772
  • May 20, 2010 12:18am May 20, 2010 12:18am
If I was to short either just now I would expect some drawdown. Both posted a strong bullish daily bar yesterday, although this may retrace. Because I expect some consolidation I am flat these pairs. Under the support is where I would place my shorts, if any, or looking for price action to short somewhere above yesterday's high. That's my opinion.
Gone to a better place
  • #22,773
  • May 20, 2010 12:29am May 20, 2010 12:29am
Quoting wuming79
Hi David, I totally agree with you...I didn't not put SL as far as 21ma in 4hr. I reduce my risk to the previous swing highs. So everytime when EU have big retracements, I could figure if it is time to long or short....Any suggestions on anticipating trend change? Will HL signal on a whole number price or support be good?
I can not understand the whole sentence.

According to the H4 MACD system,

You go long when EMA 21 is above SMA 89 and short when EMA 21 is below SMA 89. The angle of the MA should be above +/- 45 degree.

When MA 21, 89 or 200 of a currency pair tangling together or stays close together, the pair is possibly during consolidation. A tight range Bollinger band may indicate the same thing.

Read the pdf files about market rythm.

Members of Craig Harris Stochastic method thread have a skype trading room,
you can also join them, check the thread for details.
  • #22,774
  • May 20, 2010 1:20am May 20, 2010 1:20am
Quoting smikester
If I was to short either just now I would expect some drawdown. Both posted a strong bullish daily bar yesterday, although this may retrace. Because I expect some consolidation I am flat these pairs. Under the support is where I would place my shorts, if any, or looking for price action to short somewhere above yesterday's high. That's my opinion.
Hi Smikester,

Thanks for your comment.
  • #22,775
  • May 20, 2010 1:55am May 20, 2010 1:55am
possibly eu long in 2h, let's see how the candle closes
  • #22,776
  • May 20, 2010 2:14am May 20, 2010 2:14am
Quoting ashes
possibly eu long in 2h, let's see how the candle closes
Is it Long on TC pattern? I kept looking at it as ZB...
  • #22,777
  • May 20, 2010 2:16am May 20, 2010 2:16am
Quoting davidwu61

You go long when EMA 21 is above SMA 89 and short when EMA 21 is below SMA 89. The angle of the MA should be above +/- 45 degree.

When MA 21, 89 or 200 of a currency pair tangling together or stays close together, the pair is possibly during consolidation. A tight range Bollinger band may indicate the same thing.

Read the pdf files about market rythm.
Oh I mean I couldn't figure out the direction. But you answered my question. Thanks.
  • #22,778
  • Edited 9:42am May 20, 2010 4:07am | Edited 9:42am
went long on eu @1,2404 at 4h candle close, r=100=sl, tp=2r
this trade is risky, that's why I entered with half of my usual risk.

reason:
eu has made it long through 8/21ema and came back to 8ema and bounced off of it and closed above. I also like the macd price divergence.
main problem to this entry is the trendline above, a neckline of a h&s formation.
it is under pressure but that's no guarantee for a break. that's why I entered with 1/2 of usual risk

edit:
sl hit
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  • #22,779
  • May 20, 2010 6:59am May 20, 2010 6:59am
GU gives TC signal but I pass because it's near res level. :nerd:
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  • #22,780
  • May 20, 2010 7:40am May 20, 2010 7:40am
Quoting March2011
GU gives TC signal but I pass because it's near res level. :nerd:
Me too. I was getting ready to short but the last candle was too big for me to digest. Another reason why I decided to give it a miss is because support (red line) is too near.
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