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  • #12,301
  • May 19, 2010 3:54pm May 19, 2010 3:54pm
Quoting trogger
Bit early to get excited yet, but at least now i know I haven't turned colour-blind staring at this chart for the last 15 months. I will keep watching.
To everything there is a season.....?

Ah yes, the Byrds with their 12 string Rickenbacker

Still 8 trading days left before the Big Boss closes however today’s huge demand bar is a very strong statement. PRICE slashed through the TL like a hot knife through butter.

I was waiting for PA there/resistance to add some more shorts but instead all my positions are now just hanging in there by 5 pips (My SL is at 1.4728).

Despite taking out 6 weeks of shorts, I need to see a lot more before I change hats.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,302
  • May 19, 2010 4:06pm May 19, 2010 4:06pm
taking a white paper and going back to post #1...

maybe I'm too young to fight with my Gremlins?
  • #12,303
  • May 19, 2010 4:15pm May 19, 2010 4:15pm
Quoting strat
Remember that we can pull fibs from anywhere to support our "belief system".

Or, you could pull it from Nov 2005 to July 2008 and get Nicola's "magic and very secret" 88.6 - but don't tell anyone because they don't want anyone to use it. So, if very few people use it, why will it work?
Agreed with both statements.
Before joining this thread, fibs were the core of my trading method. I was looking for clusters of fibs levels like this one 1/2 and fib 88.6% for example. The more the merrier (i hope this is the right idiom), that was the philosophy.

Now, Fib is just a tool that gives me an extra confirmation when it is clustered with a SR level. But I still think its a great tool in my box.
  • #12,304
  • May 19, 2010 4:27pm May 19, 2010 4:27pm
Quoting strat
Or, you could pull it from Nov 2005 to July 2008 and get Nicola's "magic and very secret" 88.6 - but don't tell anyone because they don't want anyone to use it. So, if very few people use it, why will it work?
Oops. I was only joking about the secret!
I find fibs helpful as additional confirmation too, I would not use them in isolation.
  • #12,305
  • May 19, 2010 4:36pm May 19, 2010 4:36pm
In response to my Post #12272, and my edit today, I was sent the following link:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...-shorting.html

I am still no wiser!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,306
  • May 19, 2010 4:45pm May 19, 2010 4:45pm
Quoting strat
These comments are in addition to, or to reinforce the comments by CrudeCraig....
Hi Strat,

I highly value your comments on my AUDJPY analysis. I will study BlackEagle again and will work on the proper way of drawing trend lines and placing SR lines.

Rest assured I will study hard and hopefully one day become one of your many students.

Thank you Sir!

elPips
  • #12,307
  • Edited 5:33pm May 19, 2010 5:21pm | Edited 5:33pm
Quoting strat
To everything there is a season.....?

Ah yes, the Byrds with their 12 string Rickenbacker

Still 8 trading days left before the Big Boss closes however today’s huge demand bar is a very strong statement. PRICE slashed through the TL like a hot knife through butter.

I was waiting for PA there/resistance to add some more shorts but instead all my positions are now just hanging in there by 5 pips (My SL is at 1.4728).

[font=Arial]Despite...

Hello all,

Can someone please critique my trend line placement? I understand horizontal S/R takes precedence, but I need to get straight on this. Per Strat's comment above and earlier lessons back in the thread I was under the impression TL's should be drawn on closes. A few post back a comment was made to place them at candle extremes. The TL's below are drawn to reflect both examples. I'm also curious how you find support on this particular pair, when your data doesn't go back far enough. Thank you,
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euraud.gif Size: 13 KB
T
  • #12,308
  • May 19, 2010 5:34pm May 19, 2010 5:34pm
Quoting tmanbone
Can someone please critique my trend line placement? I understand horizontal S/R takes precedence, but I need to get straight on this. Per Stat's comment above and earlier lessons back in the thread I was under the impression TL's should be drawn on line on close. A few post back a comment was made to place them at candle extremes. The TL's below are drawn to reflect both examples. I'm also curious how you find support on this particular pair, when your data doesn't go back far enough. Thank you,
Hi Tom,
Let me try on this one if not correct then someone will correct me. One of your line which has been drawn to close are DSRI (Dynamic Support Resistance Indicator) whereas the other one you have drwan to extreme of the candles is TL. DSRI some times get you early in the trade then TL.
  • #12,309
  • May 19, 2010 5:55pm May 19, 2010 5:55pm
Quoting simpleman
Ok Sir, my EURAUD got stopped out today with loss and I didn't go for EURUSD. So I do take your advice very seriously as not taking your advice is like deceiving myself.

This s my first loss but it doesn't matter I am professional trader and I will deal with it professionally as they are part of my business and no one is immune to these losses.

Tommorow will be a new day and I will have new trade, as long as I keep my losses under control then I will be here in these markets for long time and that will mean your hard work on this thread and...
This is my thinking and take it as students sharing thoughts. We are trading with Dr. Joe in mind but we don't want to be Dr. Joe last losing trade. If you know the down trend has been established for a while and if you have not had any positions on for the fat city like Strat, you have to be extra careful opening any position. Euraud right now to my opinon is entering period of very risk to trade. People like Strat who are in fat city taking profits and newbies will get killed on the bouncing up and down.
  • #12,310
  • May 19, 2010 6:14pm May 19, 2010 6:14pm
I have picked up today Gold Chart, although I don't do any trading in oil & gold but for the learning purposes I must go through whatever is available.

BIG BOSS, BOSS & Worker are in uptrend. After today's BEEB and break of minor TL prices have found support near $1190 at 50 fib from the swing high of $1250. immediate support is available at $1180 break of $1180 will expose it to $1140. Next resistance is expected at $1220 at minor TL and then the high of $1250.

See the worker chart attached.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #12,311
  • May 19, 2010 6:16pm May 19, 2010 6:16pm
Quoting patrick25
People like Strat who are in fat city taking profits and newbies will get killed on the bouncing up and down.

Thanks Patrick. So, Strat has got our lost money. lol
  • #12,312
  • May 19, 2010 7:52pm May 19, 2010 7:52pm
Quoting tmanbone
Hello all,

Can someone please critique my trend line placement? I understand horizontal S/R takes precedence, but I need to get straight on this. Per Strat's comment above and earlier lessons back in the thread I was under the impression TL's should be drawn on closes. A few post back a comment was made to place them at candle extremes. The TL's below are drawn to reflect both examples. I'm also curious how you find support on this particular pair, when your data doesn't go back far enough. Thank you,
All basic PASR students should draw their TLs from candle extremes.

TLs can be very revealing when the art of drawing them is learned. This will be covered in future developments.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,313
  • May 19, 2010 7:56pm May 19, 2010 7:56pm
Quoting simpleman
Hi Tom,
Let me try on this one if not correct then someone will correct me. One of your line which has been drawn to close are DSRI (Dynamic Support Resistance Indicator) whereas the other one you have drwan to extreme of the candles is TL. DSRI some times get you early in the trade then TL.
DSRI some times get you early in the trade then TL.

If you don't understand DSRI, or know how to draw it and use it properly, it can get you IN when you should be OUT.

Stick with TL
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,314
  • May 19, 2010 11:01pm May 19, 2010 11:01pm
Quoting strat
DSRI some times get you early in the trade then TL.

If you don't understand DSRI, or know how to draw it and use it properly, it can get you IN when you should be OUT.

Stick with TL
Thanks Strat, I'm learning a lot from you. I appreciate your efforts. They don't go unnoticed and are not in vain. Cheers,
T
  • #12,315
  • May 20, 2010 12:34am May 20, 2010 12:34am
Quoting strat
To everything there is a season.....?


I was waiting for PA there/resistance to add some more shorts but instead all my positions are now just hanging in there by 5 pips (My SL is at 1.4728).

Despite taking out 6 weeks of shorts, I need to see a lot more before I change hats.
Hi Strat,

Wouldn't it be better to be stopped out with a smaller (200-300 pips) loss and re-enter with a discount?

I am struggling with my strategy for placing trailing stop losses (for booking partial profit to satisfy the gremlins); hence the question.

Cheers,
Rajesh
  • #12,316
  • May 20, 2010 12:53am May 20, 2010 12:53am
Quoting Alexandra
That's an interesting point. In this case, given that is is an easily visualized 50 from the huge move from 8225 in a market that is searching for a bounce point, I think it was fair to use the 50 as a target here and as a catalyst to E/J. That's why I decided to comment this morning on it. In contrast to the more subtle supports, this one is a natural for active large volume traders.

All eyes will now be on sustainability. One is rewarded for a quick trigger today n EURUSD given that any new longs can now await a re-test with stops in place....
Posted by Nicola on 9 May when she gave us the wonderful information of Fibonacci, so I am keenly watching the 50% level and like Strat will follow PA.
  • #12,317
  • May 20, 2010 1:21am May 20, 2010 1:21am
hi all, this is a nice and interesting thread
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #12,318
  • May 20, 2010 3:34am May 20, 2010 3:34am
Quoting strat
First PASR trade since leaving "indicator land"...
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
My sincere thanks for taking the time to review my post.

I have carefully studied your responses, and you are correct in every respect.

I have spent huge amounts of time going through the thread, (well over 750 pages now and about 100 pages of J16) and I think I understand most aspects of PASR reasonably well, but this exercise of a loss trade on the USDCAD, and your responses to my comments have taught me very valuable lessons; and have cleared up some matters where my understanding was faulty.

One matter I have been pondering is doing away with the MA lines completely; and doing HH, HL, LH, LL analysis to determine trends instead.

I would appreciate your feedback on this idea.

With recent volatility, I think that the lagging nature of MA is exacerbated, and I am wondering if this is making them worse than useless.

I would appreciate your feedback on this idea.

I think that reliance on MA lines for trend analysis lead me to making wrong conclusions, which I would not have made in their absence.

I guess that the bottom line is that, even though I thought I had impatience completely under control, I went searching for a trade. Always a bad move.

I am not daunted at all, in fact I am really happy the way this loss trade turned out because of the valuable lessons learned.

Thanks again.
"Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler" Albert Einstein
  • #12,319
  • Edited 4:17am May 20, 2010 4:00am | Edited 4:17am
To me it looks like the train hit emergency brakes, filled up quickly and headed north.

I am looking for a reversal or lets say hoping for one to the 1.4350 area.
then proceeding to buy my ticket.

I do realise there is a day and a bit for Boss close and 7 days for big boss.

Support to resistance
My problem with this pair is do I have these lines correct.
Comments appreciated.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #12,320
  • May 20, 2010 4:06am May 20, 2010 4:06am
Quoting Money Magnet
To me it looks like the train hit emergency My problem with this pair is do I have these lines correct.
Comments appreciated.

I have next major resistance at 155 and hoping it is correct.
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