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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #3,021
  • May 19, 2010 9:49am May 19, 2010 9:49am
Lucky I am not trading or should I say, I am not allowed to trade as I blew my account during that "fat finger"crash.

What a crazy PA. Just testing a few strategies on demo.

craziest price action I've seen in most recent times. (All other time either I was at work or asleep
  • #3,022
  • May 19, 2010 10:11am May 19, 2010 10:11am
Quoting Patience
Hey Hayseed - I don't know if you have looked at this site before but it's a great alternative to the usual news channels.

AUD could get hard hit by changes in hedge fund rules and regulations
hey p and elitetrader..... thanks again for the heads up..... those 3 shorts yall scared me out of would have been deep in the red ketchup now....

...... owe you both a meal at the local pizza hut......

//----
....... might be biting off more than i can chew but a short right now sure looks tastey..... condiments optional.....h
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to trade and code, keep both simple... no call to impress....h
  • #3,023
  • May 19, 2010 10:21am May 19, 2010 10:21am
Shorted E/U at 1.2350 on 15 min RSI over 70. SL 1.2372
  • #3,024
  • May 19, 2010 10:43am May 19, 2010 10:43am
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
wow, look at that, I should charge you guys form now

you could....you should...

For now I can give you a big THANK YOU!
After some heavy losses those trades finally get me back in line a bit.
Have been away from my charts for 2 hours now.
Nice to see that my pending shorts on the daily pivots on both the S&P and the NasDaq have been filled, I am pretty much in the greens for now !

"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #3,025
  • May 19, 2010 11:35am May 19, 2010 11:35am
hayseed,

Good day and hope you are always doing well.

Can I learn more about the system your are using (Indicators & EAs), it seems very interesting.


Thank you very much.

Quoting hayseed
hey p and elitetrader..... thanks again for the heads up..... those 3 shorts yall scared me out of would have been deep in the red ketchup now....

...... owe you both a meal at the local pizza hut......

//----
....... might be biting off more than i can chew but a short right now sure looks tastey..... condiments optional.....h
Depict history, predict future, and the area in between ...
  • #3,026
  • May 19, 2010 12:37pm May 19, 2010 12:37pm
Gents,

I need help here, what do you think is next?

Cheers,
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Depict history, predict future, and the area in between ...
  • #3,027
  • May 19, 2010 1:08pm May 19, 2010 1:08pm
Quoting Al-Agha
Gents,

I need help here, what do you think is next?

Cheers,
Just realised the importance of putting a stop loss as soon as one enters a trade! I entered short on ej forgot to put in my stop loss and fell asleep just woke up to see that my acc hit margin call total loss today


Mahsam
  • #3,028
  • May 19, 2010 1:31pm May 19, 2010 1:31pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting mahsam
Just realised the importance of putting a stop loss as soon as one enters a trade! I entered short on ej forgot to put in my stop loss and fell asleep just woke up to see that my acc hit margin call total loss today


Mahsam
Hey there Mahsam,
Sorry to hear about that... The Lesson you learnt on SL now is an important one in my opinion.
Sure if you are swing trading you might sometimes see your SL beein hit before it turns around to your direction.. as it was too tight, but it still can save your account.

MoneyManagement is an important thing. Try always to calculate the potential risk and reward of a trade before you take it.
lots of tools for that on the net. or make an excel-sheet to calculate it.
So you will always be aware of how much money is actually on the table for you..

I learnt that lesson the hard way as well with some huge losses that almost killed my account. Recovery can take some time.
you might go back to a demo-account as well to gain some confidence first.

Wish you all the best!

-Tuner-
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #3,029
  • May 19, 2010 2:26pm May 19, 2010 2:26pm
Short E/U at 1.2380, SL=1.2450

Short G/U 1.4425 SL=1.4525

Both are in good positions to short, cant post the chart atm, will do it later.
  • #3,030
  • May 19, 2010 2:31pm May 19, 2010 2:31pm
Sell limit Gold at 1205, SL=1228
  • #3,031
  • May 19, 2010 2:37pm May 19, 2010 2:37pm
Short CAD/J at 87.70, SL=90.70

Short GBP/J at 132 SL=135
  • #3,032
  • May 19, 2010 2:52pm May 19, 2010 2:52pm
Quoting mahsam
Just realised the importance of putting a stop loss as soon as one enters a trade! I entered short on ej forgot to put in my stop loss and fell asleep just woke up to see that my acc hit margin call total loss today


Mahsam

I'm sorry to hear that. The way to success in fx trading is like this:


Success= High probability trade (2/3) * good RRR (at least 1:1) +Risk Management (you will lose at least 1/3 time so SL is a MUST, risk 2-5% per trade)+ Money Management (overall correlation exposure to the market not more than 10% at any given time+ you should consider equal weight*pips of SL (risk) to each trade, for instance if your SL in one trade is 50 and lot is 1 , the other trade with SL of 100 you should use 0.5 lot)

In summary :
Success= Pr * RRR +RM +MM

Simply put buy using some skills you can take more than half right (may be 60%) and that will take care of long term profit if you treat them equally.
  • #3,033
  • May 19, 2010 2:55pm May 19, 2010 2:55pm
Buy limit U/Cad at 1.0400-0410 SL=1.0250
  • #3,034
  • May 19, 2010 3:32pm May 19, 2010 3:32pm
Quoting shahab8b
Sell limit Gold at 1205, SL=1228
I'd take short 1208 with stop 1215 or so.
  • #3,035
  • May 19, 2010 4:04pm May 19, 2010 4:04pm
It seems E/U has started a major correction, the short position is about to stopped out. If r at 1.2450 doesn't hold, next stop will be around 1.2525-2600, I like the idea of shorting close to 1.2600.
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  • #3,036
  • May 19, 2010 4:06pm May 19, 2010 4:06pm
shabab,

what do you think of daily on euro?a double bottom and bullish engulfing?

Quoting shahab8b
It seems E/U has started a major correction, the short position is about to stopped out. If r at 1.2450 doesn't hold, next stop will be around 1.2525-2600, I like the idea of shorting close to 1.2600.
  • #3,037
  • May 19, 2010 4:31pm May 19, 2010 4:31pm
Quoting coolshades
shabab,

what do you think of daily on euro?a double bottom and bullish engulfing?

It might be. let it break 1.2345 first.
  • #3,038
  • May 19, 2010 4:31pm May 19, 2010 4:31pm
...
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  • #3,039
  • May 19, 2010 4:43pm May 19, 2010 4:43pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
...

Hey there shahab...
Nice setups as always!
So we should expect a major correction now?
Was away from my charts again. and didn't cash in the AUD yet
retraces pretty hard at the moment. but still on +360 .

Hope we don't make it up all the way to my entry levels though.

A bit unsure of the indices futures now. also pretty much of a retrace there at the moment. We might see my entry-levels on those again soon, after beein so nice in the greens. What'S your view on them at the moment?

Tuner
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #3,040
  • May 19, 2010 4:55pm May 19, 2010 4:55pm
Quoting Tuner
Hey there shahab...
Nice setups as always!
So we should expect a major correction now?
Was away from my charts again. and didn't cash in the AUD yet
retraces pretty hard at the moment. but still on +360 .

Hope we don't make it up all the way to my entry levels though.

A bit unsure of the indices futures now. also pretty much of a retrace there at the moment. We might see my entry-levels on those again soon, after beein so nice in the greens. What'S your view on them at the moment?

Tuner
Hi, I cashed in most of them when I saw E/U heading north, but still have few left. did you cash in your DAX? that's a heavy position contract wise.
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