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Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #12,281
  • May 18, 2010 8:04pm May 18, 2010 8:04pm
It's do or die time for Eur Yen and Pound Yen. Both are getting ever closer to the lows of those infamous weekly bars from the beginning of May. Should be interesting to see how they react.
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #12,282
  • May 18, 2010 10:34pm May 18, 2010 10:34pm
Hi,

Still waiting for feedback from my AUDJPY chart posting yesterday. Today, I'd like to continue by once again showing the daily chart.

http://i689.photobucket.com/albums/v...ay18_daily.jpg

The Worker:
Yesterday's retest of the lower trendline has failed as price broken decisively through the TL and also to its Daily Support (green). We can also see the recent formation of LH and LL. The 20EMA is beginning to slope down but still above the 50MA.

The moving average on the weekly, the 20EMA remains above 50MA it is not in alignment with the monthly and daily charts. I have seen examples from past threads that you can trade the WORKER based on the BOSS. Would it be fine to trade the WORKER based on the BIG BOSS? Or its important to wait for the weekly to align itself before planning a trade on the daily?

I'm hoping one of the mentors or senior members will soon help me in my learning quest. I need your valuable comments so I can correctly understand Strat's System.

Thank you.

elPips
  • #12,283
  • May 18, 2010 11:08pm May 18, 2010 11:08pm
Quoting elPips
Hi everyone,

I've been slowly reading on this thread since April 21 this is my first time to show my chart and ask for your comments good or bad is fine as my sole objective here is to learn so let's begin :-)

These colors define my S/R lines:
Light Gray – Monthly
Light Blue – Weekly
Light Green – Daily
Gold – Daily Trend Line

Below is the chart of AUDJPY.

The Big Boss:
The monthly chart has been in an upward motion since March 01, 2009. Price is presently caught between the red (50MA)...
ve been slowly reading on this thread since April 21 this is my first time to show my chart and ask for your comments good or bad is fine as my sole objective here is to learn so let's begin :-)


First off Welcome!

These colors define my S/R lines:
Light Gray – Monthly
Light Blue – Weekly
Light Green – Daily
Gold – Daily Trend Line

Because your SR lines are in such a light color i can't really tell where your levels are on your chart. Try a darker color next time so we can see.

red (50MA) and blue (20EMA)

On the thread we use RED as our 20ema and Blue as our 50sma.

Your lower "TL" on your boss chart is also drawn incorrectly (your upper line is more of a correctly drawn TL)


Wait for the Boss to agree with the Big Boss and Worker. Watch PASR. Exercise patience.


Not too bad for a first analysis!

Make sure you get the colors on your MA's straightened out so that the rest of us can quickly understand your charts and do some re-reading on TL's. You are off to a good start and if you stay with it and keep posting your analysis we will be here to help you.

I have posted my chart for your reference.
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  • #12,284
  • May 18, 2010 11:27pm May 18, 2010 11:27pm
Quoting jimbo86
you might also find this helpful, near the top it says how to subscribe to the weekly updates.
what are your predictions on gbp/nzd?
cheers
No predictions here Jimbo!

I just react to what price is telling me. I have been short this pair since 4/23 and have a small position still trailing. Right now i see the buyers are trying to make a push for 2.1000 so we will see if they can make it and what will happen if it gets there.
  • #12,285
  • May 19, 2010 1:05am May 19, 2010 1:05am
Quoting strat
hi strat i know im rubbish

but ok on the eur/usd is the days candle a bearish engulfing bar?

well almost because it hasnt closed yet but it might form one.

you can tell me to shut it if you like lol

No, you are not rubbish.

You are just not focused and seem to be “playing a game”.

[font=Arial]This...
Thanks again for your help strat
off to study more
learn more of these beob and beeb and how to use them properly.
  • #12,286
  • May 19, 2010 5:34am May 19, 2010 5:34am
Bit early to get excited yet, but at least now i know I haven't turned colour-blind staring at this chart for the last 15 months. I will keep watching.
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  • #12,287
  • May 19, 2010 5:46am May 19, 2010 5:46am
Awareness of the long term 50 fibo in EURUSD is warranted.
  • #12,288
  • May 19, 2010 7:52am May 19, 2010 7:52am
Quoting Alexandra
Awareness of the long term 50 fibo in EURUSD is warranted.
Co-incides with the Monthly SR line of 1.1860on my chart. Would make a good TP for my current short?
  • #12,289
  • May 19, 2010 8:19am May 19, 2010 8:19am
Quoting Lotuselanman
Co-incides with the Monthly SR line of 1.1860on my chart. Would make a good TP for my current short?
I think its the one from the attached chart at 1.2196. Half distance from Oct 2000 low and July 2008 high.

The Monthly Support at 1.18 might stop the price for awhile but if you are currently short maybe its better not to use a target considering the momentum of this downtrend.
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  • #12,290
  • May 19, 2010 9:14am May 19, 2010 9:14am
Quoting strat
If you want stress free trading, your decision is already made. You are already in one EUR pair. If you add EURUSD you will have double jeopardy. If the EUR goes against you, both trades will be blown.

At this level, only stick with one of each pair.
Only one EUR pair

Quote:
Originally Posted by simpleman [IMG]file:///C:/Users/Robert/AppData/Local/Temp/msohtml1/01/clip_image001.gif[/IMG]
As the week has closed with Very bearish on EURUSD pair and very bullish on USDCHF pair on worker, BOSS & BIG BOSS. I don't know how to get into one of these. If I am expecting USDCHF to go to next resistance which is about 400 pips away then that means EURUSD will go down by about 500 pips if correlation plays out the way it has played out in the past.

May be getting into EURUSD is the best option here but the pair gets lot of interest and can go up very quickly.

My question is how do I enter any of these trades? I have one trade open which...

If you want stress free trading, your decision is already made. You are already in one EUR pair. If you add EURUSD you will have double jeopardy. If the EUR goes against you, both trades will be blown.

At this level, only stick with one of each pair.

May 19, 2010

Maybe the Market can explain it for you better than I.

Your EURAUD has moved 610+ pips against you.

If you were foolish enough to ignore my advice, the EURUSD will have moved 160+ pips against you.

Need any more proof why it’s not stress free to trade more than one pair of the same currency?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,291
  • May 19, 2010 9:30am May 19, 2010 9:30am
Quoting CrudeCraig
ve been slowly reading on this thread since April 21 this is my first time to show my chart and ask for your comments good or bad is fine as my sole objective here is to learn so let's begin :-)


First off Welcome!

These colors define my S/R lines:
Light Gray – Monthly
Light Blue – Weekly
Light Green – Daily
Gold – Daily Trend Line

Because your SR lines are in such a light color i can't really tell where your levels are on your chart. Try a darker color next time so we can see.

[color=blue][b]...
Hi Craig,

Thank you very much for sharing your time. I will do what you have recommended and will implement in my next chart.

Have a nice day.

elPips
  • #12,292
  • May 19, 2010 11:37am May 19, 2010 11:37am
Quoting strat
hi strat i know im rubbish

but ok on the eur/usd is the days candle a bearish engulfing bar?

well almost because it hasnt closed yet but it might form one.

you can tell me to shut it if you like lol...
Having said it is a BEOB, there is a big problem with it as it does not satisfy all the conditions for a BEOB.

If you don’t know what these are you need to go back into the thread and study PRICE REVERSAL BARS and specifically BEOB and BEEBs.

For those that ignored this and decided to short below the BEOB/BEEB, you are very lucky that today's bullish bar didn't fill your trade otherwise you would be hurting to the tune of 170 pips or so.

Make sure you understand ALL the conditions for these bars.

You were lucky this time - will you be next time?

Remember: There are NO lucky traders - they all blew their accounts!
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,293
  • May 19, 2010 11:37am May 19, 2010 11:37am
Quoting strat
Only one EUR pair

At this level, only stick with one of each pair.

May 19, 2010

Maybe the Market can explain it for you better than I.

Your EURAUD has moved 610+ pips against you.

If you were foolish enough to ignore my advice, the EURUSD will have moved 160+ pips against you.

[font=Arial]Need any more proof why it’s not stress free to trade more than one pair of the...
Ok Sir, my EURAUD got stopped out today with loss and I didn't go for EURUSD. So I do take your advice very seriously as not taking your advice is like deceiving myself.

This s my first loss but it doesn't matter I am professional trader and I will deal with it professionally as they are part of my business and no one is immune to these losses.

Tommorow will be a new day and I will have new trade, as long as I keep my losses under control then I will be here in these markets for long time and that will mean your hard work on this thread and on us has paid off.

I still feel incompetent in my stops and entries despite the fact I can recognize basic PASR. I will have to do lot of work to get my basics right.

Thank you
  • #12,294
  • May 19, 2010 12:03pm May 19, 2010 12:03pm
Has anyone seen Ms Correlation? Has she gone to get into new relation-ship?

Trade what you see - A lesson to remember.
  • #12,295
  • May 19, 2010 12:14pm May 19, 2010 12:14pm
Again more relevant to short holders on this thread, but I do see a change in the volume patterns accross both E/D and E/J supporting at least a pause. A dramatic reaction would not suprise me.

Look at the longer term charts. An actioanble change in sentiment would not take much, unless one is a fan of the MA's.
  • #12,296
  • May 19, 2010 12:16pm May 19, 2010 12:16pm
Quoting elPips
Hi everyone,

I've been slowly reading on this thread since April 21 this is my first time to show my chart and ask for your comments good or bad is fine as my sole objective here is to learn so let's begin :-)

These colors define my S/R lines:
Light Gray – Monthly
Light Blue – Weekly
Light Green – Daily
Gold – Daily Trend Line

Below is the chart of AUDJPY.

The Big Boss:
The monthly chart has been in an upward motion since March 01, 2009. Price is presently caught between the red (50MA) and blue (20EMA)....
These comments are in addition to, or to reinforce the comments by CrudeCraig.

The Big Boss:
The monthly chart has been in an upward motion since March 01, 2009. Price is presently caught between the red (50MA) and blue (20EMA). Last week price close @ 80.74 which is around the monthly light gray support line.

Good. It is now AT support.

Does the fact that this month’s bar took out the prior 3 months’ bars mean anything to you?

This PA is the result of the 61.8% fib retrace.

You have TOO MANY SR lines on your chart. Go back to Blackeagle’s posts on SR identification and study and UNDERSTAND more.

The Boss:
The weekly shows the blue (20EMA) is above the red (50MA) this indicate a conflict between the Big Boss and Worker. The price is retesting the lower trendline.

20 is RED and 50 is BLUE – you say you have been reading the thread – this shows that you do not UNDERSTAND the thread.

Draw your TLs from the candle extremes.

PRICE is NOT testing the TL BUT it is at support.

Yes, the Big Boss and Boss are in conflict. Which do you expect to come into line?

Again, too many SR lines.


The Worker:
Its interesting to note that the worker is following the Big Boss blue (20 EMA) is below the red (50MA). The daily trendline (gold) have been respected so far. Daily price is testing the monthly SR @80.79.

Be very careful that you don’t over analyse with the MAs. While they are very important tools for us, never forget that they LAG 20 and 50 days behind PRICE.

Again, at your level, draw TLs from candle extremes.

PRICE is AT support whether it is Monthly, Weekly, Quarterly, Annually or whatever – in PASR, support is SUPPORT and resistance is RESISTANCE.

I don’t agree with the “experts” that Monthly support is stronger than Weekly is stronger than Daily etc. Support is SUPPORT.

Action:
Wait for the Boss to agree with the Big Boss and Worker. Watch PASR. Exercise patience.

You may have written this incorrectly, but in case you didn’t, go back and read and UNDERSTAND my posts on the Higher Order of Time Frames.

Very good for a first post and analysis but always make sure you UNDERSTAND when you read.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,297
  • May 19, 2010 12:47pm May 19, 2010 12:47pm
Quoting No1Optimist
USDCAD short ATM trade:

Worker signal bar: shooting star on 17 May, indicating downtrend resumed

Blue lines: SR lines, minor SR lines identified on daily chart only.

Violet line: minor support, expect a possible wobble or pause there. (according to J16)

Boss: downtrend

Big Boss: downtrend resumed

Risk: 140 pips, 1.36% of account balance.
First PASR trade since leaving "indicator land"

USDCAD short ATM trade:

Congratulations on leaving “Indicator Land” – just make sure you don’t get withdrawal symptoms.

The way you have written this makes me think you started with the Worker, then Boss and Big Boss. Whether you did or not, ALWAYS start your analysis with the Big Boss.

Big Boss: downtrend resumed

Not on my chart! It is putting in a HIGHER swing low at 78.6% fib retrace.

Based on this, you should only be thinking ……………………………….

Boss: downtrend

Not on my chart! It is moving up from strong support within an UP swing. Maybe looking to test psycho 1.0800?

Worker signal bar: shooting star on 17 May, indicating downtrend resumed

OK, Shooting Star but not on my data

Where do you see the downtrend on the Worker? Ignoring the May 6 spike (knee jerk volatility), PRICE is making HH and HLs

You COUNTER TREND traded directly into support at psycho 1.0300

Violet line: minor support, expect a possible wobble or pause there. (according to J16)


What the hell is this???????????????

Although your MM is good, your PASR skills are NOT ready for trading.

You MUST stop trading and go back to PRACTICING on thousands of charts.

Don’t attempt to trade UNLESS you fully UNDERSTAND the basics which comes from spending thousands of hours studying and practicing on thousands of charts.

15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,298
  • May 19, 2010 3:08pm May 19, 2010 3:08pm
Quoting hcristea
I think its the one from the attached chart at 1.2196. Half distance from Oct 2000 low and July 2008 high.

The Monthly Support at 1.18 might stop the price for awhile but if you are currently short maybe its better not to use a target considering the momentum of this downtrend.
Thanks for that hcristea. I rechecked my Fib drawing and after dealing with the inaccuracy, found that mine was the same as yours.

When I said 'target' I meant the point to think about taking some profit. Partially closing my trade and letting some run on. But you are right to pick me up on that!

Thanks for your comment.
  • #12,299
  • May 19, 2010 3:29pm May 19, 2010 3:29pm
Quoting hcristea
I think its the one from the attached chart at 1.2196. Half distance from Oct 2000 low and July 2008 high.

The Monthly Support at 1.18 might stop the price for awhile but if you are currently short maybe its better not to use a target considering the momentum of this downtrend.
Remember that we can pull fibs from anywhere to support our "belief system".

Or, you could pull it from Nov 2005 to July 2008 and get Nicola's "magic and very secret" 88.6 - but don't tell anyone because they don't want anyone to use it. So, if very few people use it, why will it work?

But there again, you could say PRICE has exceeded 78.6% so we are in a new trend.

Many technicians argue that once a swing has retraced, pulling fibs on it a second time is useless. I know Bobokus here on FF who trades Fib believes that.

As for me, I haven't studied Fibs enough to form an opinion. They are just a tool to me.

If PRICE turns on a fib retrace, I will follow it.

If PRICE ignores a fib retrace, I will follow it.

Where'er PRICE goes, I will follow.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,300
  • May 19, 2010 3:46pm May 19, 2010 3:46pm
Quoting strat
Remember that we can pull fibs from anywhere to support our "belief system".

Or, you could pull it from Nov 2005 to July 2008 and get Nicola's "magic and very secret" 88.6 - but don't tell anyone because they don't want anyone to use it. So, if very few people use it, why will it work?

But there again, you could say PRICE has exceeded 78.6% so we are in a new trend.

Many technicians argue that once a swing has retraced, pulling fibs on it a second time is useless. I know Bobokus here on FF who trades Fib believes that.

As for me,...
That's an interesting point. In this case, given that is is an easily visualized 50 from the huge move from 8225 in a market that is searching for a bounce point, I think it was fair to use the 50 as a target here and as a catalyst to E/J. That's why I decided to comment this morning on it. In contrast to the more subtle supports, this one is a natural for active large volume traders.

All eyes will now be on sustainability. One is rewarded for a quick trigger today n EURUSD given that any new longs can now await a re-test with stops in place. Overall, however, adhering to the long term Strat strategy of taking 2/3 of the move is the superior way to sustain profits and survive well in this market. EURUSD is a great example of that. Shorts should really be able to afford a bit of retracement without undue concern given the bubble like extra profits of the recent chaos.

I continue to watch Chunnel with interest and nibbling longs, as commented elsewhere.
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