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  • #12,261
  • May 17, 2010 8:39pm May 17, 2010 8:39pm
Quoting jimbo86
i have just seen your post, i dont have a chart but i have it written, which could give some idea. it is written as nzd/gbp. i think to convert it is 100 divided by rate. e.g. 100/48= 2.0833
do you trade this pair?
Thanks for the effort Jimbo,

I couldn't make much out of it (I was probably doing something wrong) but i appreciate it none the less.

Yes i trade this pair as long as the spread is not too bad.
  • #12,262
  • May 18, 2010 12:05am May 18, 2010 12:05am
Quoting strat
I suspect the fact that I am a slow learner is telling against me.

This has got to be the UNDERSTATEMENT of the year!

It seems like you have been on here for ever and you are no nearer than you were when you first got here!

Were you Christopher Columbus in your former life? He didn’t know where he was going when he set out, he didn’t know where he was when he got there and didn’t know where he had been when he got back!

What......




[font=Arial][color=blue]
Hello again Strat,

Thanks for taking time out of your day to talk to me – I do appreciate that you care about us trying to learn. Believe it or not, that is precisely what I am trying to do.

For reasons that I would prefer not to discuss, information acquisition and retention is not as easy as it once was. Suffice it to say that I am happy to be allowed to learn through your good auspices, and while I would prefer to learn more quickly, the passage of time is of less importance to me, than what I manage to accomplish within it. At this point, I am quite satisfied with where I am. For the first time in a long while, I feel that I have actually started to learn something – to me, a huge step forward.

At this stage I don’t claim to have a trading method, any trades that I have demo traded for my journal, I have followed Dr. Joe, buy when trend is going up, and sell when it is going down. I have also built into my plan that the triumvirate must be in agreement on any trade undertaken for inclusion in the journal. Nor have I ever intended to give the impression that I have read the entire thread. I have re-started several times already.

In between times, I prefer to learn by “doing” – for example, I wanted to see what would happen if I wanted to stay in a longer time-frame trade. What size of stop would I need to have in place and could it be done within what I would be prepared to lose? In several of the experiments it could. In one it went a long way past where I should have bailed. I won’t ever let that happen again – lesson learned. Trade plan now clearly states to only trade to the next support or resistance if it is within loss tolerance. It also states to NEVER move a stop once the trade is placed – that is one of the reasons I created my trade plan spread sheet in the first place - to calculate risk based stops and targets.

The particular trade that caught your attention in was intended to establish if it was reasonable to “bracket” an area where I believed that the next directional play was no better than a coin toss. As it happened, this particular one did finally work out for me. I let it stay in place and was drawn in to the trade. Unfortunately, that occurred just before I noticed that FXDD had closed down for the weekend and kept telling me that the market was closed when I tried to cancel the trade. I had to catch it first thing on the following Monday (to find that it had gone up). I was sick to my stomach (even though there was no actual money on the table). I immediately amended my trading rules to reflect that that I must NEVER leave a set-up in place past noon on Friday.

Most of the problems I've experienced so far, relate more to memory than understanding, including the book reading. I simply have not yet reached a stage where I “see” a hammer on the chart, although if I did see one, I would certainly check that it was at the bottom of a downward trend. What degree of confirmation is required, I simply do not know. At present I assume that the next candle has to close above the hammer, but have never actually recognised seen one as being in the correct place on a live chart.

I take on trust that everything that I need to trade PASR is in the thread. Unfortunately, it is not in a sufficiently closely packed format for me to readily assimilate it. I am sure that if I could identify and print the relevant parts and carry them with me everywhere, (as I do with the various books that I use to reinforce/enhance my understanding of your teaching), everything would be fine.

Unfortunately, the gems are well interspersed between a lot of irrelevance which is at best – distracting. All that this means to me, is that it will take me much longer than most to reach the end of the thread, but it will be quicker (hopefully) the next time, and the next...Time is the only thing that I have in abundance.

I hope for two things:

Your understanding as to why I need to carry on from where I last reached in the thread (in the understanding that I will be re-reading it as many times as necessary until I do reach trading competence and hopefully, consistency).

That we BOTH live sufficiently long for me to reach that happy day! If I don’t, I want you to know that it wasn't for want of trying!

What a coincidence that both you and my wife think that I am strange!

Regards,

Mike
  • #12,263
  • May 18, 2010 1:10am May 18, 2010 1:10am
Hi everyone,

I've been slowly reading on this thread since April 21 this is my first time to show my chart and ask for your comments good or bad is fine as my sole objective here is to learn so let's begin :-)

These colors define my S/R lines:
Light Gray – Monthly
Light Blue – Weekly
Light Green – Daily
Gold – Daily Trend Line

Below is the chart of AUDJPY.

The Big Boss:
The monthly chart has been in an upward motion since March 01, 2009. Price is presently caught between the red (50MA) and blue (20EMA). Last week price close @ 80.74 which is around the monthly light gray support line.

http://i689.photobucket.com/albums/v...ay_monthly.jpg

The Boss:
The weekly shows the blue (20EMA) is above the red (50MA) this indicate a conflict between the Big Boss and Worker. The price is retesting the lower trendline.

http://i689.photobucket.com/albums/v...may_weekly.jpg

The Worker:
Its interesting to note that the worker is following the Big Boss blue (20 EMA) is below the red (50MA). The daily trendline (gold) have been respected so far. Daily price is testing the monthly SR @80.79.

http://i689.photobucket.com/albums/v..._may_daily.jpg

Action:
Wait for the Boss to agree with the Big Boss and Worker. Watch PASR. Exercise patience.

Thank you for your time.

elPips
  • #12,264
  • May 18, 2010 2:07am May 18, 2010 2:07am
[quote=cchad3;3731768]Hi All,

I started reading this great thread a couple of weeks ago and am luvin it. I remembered seeing a link to a members area on one of the first few

Page 769 post 11532,33,34,35 will help you.
  • #12,265
  • Edited 9:19am May 18, 2010 3:09am | Edited 9:19am
USDCAD short ATM trade:

Worker signal bar: shooting star on 17 May, indicating downtrend resumed

Blue lines: SR lines, minor SR lines identified on daily chart only.

Violet line: minor support, expect a possible wobble or pause there. (according to J16)

Boss: downtrend

Big Boss: downtrend resumed

Risk: 140 pips, 1.36% of account balance.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1st pasr trade -usdcad 17 may.jpg Size: 128 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 1st pasr trade -usdcad 17 may boss.jpg Size: 117 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 1st pasr trade -usdcad 17 may big boss.jpg Size: 130 KB
"Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler" Albert Einstein
  • #12,266
  • May 18, 2010 3:16am May 18, 2010 3:16am
Greetings all, just a question from a rank beginner seeking your guidance. Would I be correct in noting a hammer has formed on the EU daily chart? Therefore, awaiting the shape of today's (currently bullish) candle for confirmation would be the wise move before deciding whether its a trend reversal, or not?
  • #12,267
  • May 18, 2010 5:57am May 18, 2010 5:57am
Quoting Celtic Kiwi
Greetings all, just a question from a rank beginner seeking your guidance. Would I be correct in noting a hammer has formed on the EU daily chart? Therefore, awaiting the shape of today's (currently bullish) candle for confirmation would be the wise move before deciding whether its a trend reversal, or not?
Hi,

The candle is indeed is a Hammer-like candle but you need to put it in the larger context of market:

- What is the trend on all 3 timeframes (Big Boss, Boss and Worker) ?
- How big is the Hammer bar compared to recent volatility?
- Knowing the above can it be considered a low-risk setup?

Cheers,
-soso

EDIT: The above questions are not the only questions you should ask yourself (for example you should also ask yourself where's the closer trouble area etc), they are just relevant to the current market context the way I see it.
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #12,268
  • May 18, 2010 7:23am May 18, 2010 7:23am
Quoting Celtic Kiwi
Greetings all, just a question from a rank beginner seeking your guidance. Would I be correct in noting a hammer has formed on the EU daily chart? Therefore, awaiting the shape of today's (currently bullish) candle for confirmation would be the wise move before deciding whether its a trend reversal, or not?
Hey Celtic Kiwi:

It may help to get your S/R lines on the Euro chart and see how far away the nearest resistance is. Looking at all timeframes as Soso mentioned this is a complete no go as we are in a roaring downtrend. Wait for a retrace and then see what happens at .2500. Hope this helps a bit. Cheers. John
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusddailymay18.gif Size: 14 KB
Finally out of the shadows.
  • #12,269
  • May 18, 2010 7:57am May 18, 2010 7:57am
Quoting Alexandra
Ouch.

Sorry, but that one is wrong on so many levels. God, it may just work.
Hey Alexandra,

Were you speaking "tongue in cheek" regarding the NZ PA or was it a hint?

The only thing that may have tipped me off was the inside bar within the shooting star and the previous weekly candle touching weekly dsri. Were those the hints you saw (analysis in post 11860)?

I'm just curious as you seem to see many great opportunities and I would like to get there someday. Thanks. Cheers.

John
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: nzdusddailymay18.gif Size: 21 KB
Finally out of the shadows.
  • #12,270
  • May 18, 2010 10:43am May 18, 2010 10:43am
Quoting No1Optimist
USDCAD short ATM trade:

Worker signal bar: shooting star on 17 May, indicating downtrend resumed

Big Boss: downtrend resumed

Risk: 140 pips, 1.36% of account balance.
Hi,
I am just a learner like you but I will be very careful with this shooting star. What is the target anyway?
  • #12,271
  • May 18, 2010 11:20am May 18, 2010 11:20am
Quoting CrudeCraig
Thanks for the effort Jimbo,

I couldn't make much out of it (I was probably doing something wrong) but i appreciate it none the less.

Yes i trade this pair as long as the spread is not too bad.
you might also find this helpful, near the top it says how to subscribe to the weekly updates.
what are your predictions on gbp/nzd?
cheers
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf WOMay13.pdf   125 KB | 660 downloads
  • #12,272
  • Edited May 19, 2010 9:23am May 18, 2010 11:33am | Edited May 19, 2010 9:23am
It never fails!

I don’t normally read or listen to talking heads but this week-end, everywhere and every time I turned, there were news stories of the Euro$ making 4 year lows, Euro$ next stop parity, EU breaking up etc, etc.

I don’t know how they coerce this, but the big boys are always waiting for this.

The volume yesterday on the Euro was only half the volume the Euro needs to turn this thing around.

The Euro put in a very anemic Bond hammer which I understand also happened on some EURUSD platforms.

On my platform I had an inverted hammer.

As we have experienced many times on this thread, the inexperienced and uninformed are always looking for the present to end and the future to begin. In other words, “they and we as a normal society” are top and bottom pickers.

The talking heads add fuel to this fire while those of a contrarian view are already poised and armed for a move in the opposite direction.

If the big boys are behind this, they are waiting for the buyers to come in and take PRICE back up to DISCOUNT levels where they will let all hell loose and SELL as many contracts as they can get their hands on.

All this happens while those buyers are feeling pretty pleased with themselves that they got in at really low PRICES.

The next question is where is the DISCOUNT level? Obvious areas are a pullback to the 20, SR or fib level.

Of course, it could also be that the political financial dynamics have changed and “they” have pulled the plug on the fall!

Whatever happens, no-one can move this or any other pair without leaving footprints behind. We are just waiting for the footprints and where’er they go, so will we.

Again, as I have posted many times, if you have a hammer or other price reversal type candle in such a strong trend, it is a sign for those of us in short positions to either protect profits or close positions. It is NOT a signal to reverse positions.

Edit: May 19, 2010

So then I get PMs and emails asking me why EURUSD is still plummeting down when the EU have agreed the bail out package for Greece.

I think you all must be confusing me with some financial political guru who has the inside track on this stuff.

As Manuel in "Fawlty Towers" said, "I know nothing!".

I know nothing nor do I care what the reason is. All I know is ALL MY TECHNICALS ARE DOWN. I don't need to know anymore than this.

Logic would say that the big boys either don't believe or care about the EU and are determined to ream the ass out of the Euro. But there again, since when has forex followed logic?
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,273
  • May 18, 2010 12:46pm May 18, 2010 12:46pm
Quoting strat
It never fails!

I don’t normally read or listen to talking heads but this week-end, everywhere and every time I turned, there were news stories of the Euro$ making 4 year lows, Euro$ next stop parity, EU breaking up etc, etc.

I don’t know how they coerce this, but the big boys are always waiting for this.

The volume yesterday on the Euro was only half the volume the Euro needs to turn this thing around.

[font=Arial]The Euro put in a very anemic Bond hammer which I understand...
Hi Strat,

Since being a student of this thread, I noticed surprisingly when I see shooting star or hammer I started to close one of positions or tighten the stop to protect profits. Before the thread I started openning positions when I saw shooting star or hammer and lost most of the time because of strong trend. Strat, you have helped transforming my trading completely around on the other side of the group. Your time has not wasted, you have helped a lot of traders out there I know one for sure.
  • #12,274
  • May 18, 2010 2:03pm May 18, 2010 2:03pm
Quoting patrick25
Hi Strat,

Since being a student of this thread, I noticed surprisingly when I see shooting star or hammer I started to close one of positions or tighten the stop to protect profits. Before the thread I started openning positions when I saw shooting star or hammer and lost most of the time because of strong trend. Strat, you have helped transforming my trading completely around on the other side of the group. Your time has not wasted, you have helped a lot of traders out there I know one for sure.
Hi Patrickhttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

Well said and agree 100%, learning here transformed my trading upside down, inside out. No more jumping in because others are in and I am waiting on sidelines.
Waiting for the opportunities and taking the hammers or shooting stars for what they really are, where they are and not just on their face value.

Happy tradinghttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Jideck
  • #12,275
  • May 18, 2010 2:38pm May 18, 2010 2:38pm
Quoting Jideck
Hi Patrickhttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

Well said and agree 100%, learning here transformed my trading upside down, inside out. No more jumping in because others are in and I am waiting on sidelines.
Waiting for the opportunities and taking the hammers or shooting stars for what they really are, where they are and not just on their face value.

Happy tradinghttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Jideck
Hi Jideck,

It is a good feeling that knowing people want our positions which we are in for few days ago or weeks ago.
  • #12,276
  • May 18, 2010 2:44pm May 18, 2010 2:44pm
That hammer yesterday on EURUSD was a hammer on my feed but piddly, certainly not enough to reverse that kind of move or momentum. Same goes for the gravestone doji on USDCHF.

However I would like to point out ...
1. EUR bearish sentiment is at an all time extreme
2. The all-time low at 0.8228 in October 2000 and the all time high is at 1.6040 in July 2008 so that means the 50fib is at 1.2140
3. The 1.618 fib extension of the last swing is around 1.2165

This might be a good time for people to take some profit and wait for the next bounce to add.




Quoting strat
It never fails!...
  • #12,277
  • May 18, 2010 2:59pm May 18, 2010 2:59pm
hi strat i know im rubbish

but ok on the eur/usd is the days candle a bearish engulfing bar?

well almost because it hasnt closed yet but it might form one.

you can tell me to shut it if you like lol
  • #12,278
  • May 18, 2010 3:21pm May 18, 2010 3:21pm
Quoting swano
hi strat i know im rubbish

but ok on the eur/usd is the days candle a bearish engulfing bar?

well almost because it hasnt closed yet but it might form one.

you can tell me to shut it if you like lol
Hi Swanohttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

To answer your question would be to give you a possible trading signal, which we are not doing here.

Recognise the EURUSD trend and stick with it.

If you follow PASR and recognise what the candles candles are doing when around valid SR you shall know what to do.

Happy tradinghttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Jideck
  • #12,279
  • May 18, 2010 3:28pm May 18, 2010 3:28pm
Quoting swano
hi strat i know im rubbish

but ok on the eur/usd is the days candle a bearish engulfing bar?

well almost because it hasnt closed yet but it might form one.

you can tell me to shut it if you like lol
hi strat i know im rubbish

but ok on the eur/usd is the days candle a bearish engulfing bar?

well almost because it hasnt closed yet but it might form one.

you can tell me to shut it if you like lol

No, you are not rubbish.

You are just not focused and seem to be “playing a game”.

This is NOT a game; it is REAL business using REAL money

If you WERE focused you would have read the thread.

If you have read the thread and you are asking these questions then you read but did not UNDERSTAND.

Had you READ and UNDERSTOOD the thread, you would have no reason to ask this question.

But just to set you straight (if that is possible):

Since all the movers and shakers have left NY by now, we are left with a BEOB on my data.

Remember though, this is only after NY close. My candle does not close until NY midnight so the Asian boys can have their way with it until then. However, the volume on EURUSD is with London and then NY so it would be unusual for the Asian boys to do anything big. Having said that, anything is possible in forex.

Having said it is a BEOB, there is a big problem with it as it does not satisfy all the conditions for a BEOB.

If you don’t know what these are you need to go back into the thread and study PRICE REVERSAL BARS and specifically BEOB and BEEBs.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #12,280
  • May 18, 2010 3:34pm May 18, 2010 3:34pm
Quoting patrick25
Hi Jideck,

It is a good feeling that knowing people want our positions which we are in for few days ago or weeks ago.
[quote=elitejets;3734995]This might be a good time for people to take some profit and wait for the next bounce to add.

[quote=strat;3734283]the inexperienced and uninformed are always looking for the present to end and the future to begin

Patrick, Nicola and Strat http://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

Excellent and worth taking note of.

Happy tradinghttp://cdn.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Jideck
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