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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #2,881
  • May 18, 2010 4:23am May 18, 2010 4:23am
E/U

I keep my bearish bias on E/U,all overbought rallies (RSI>70) in Hr char are good selling opportunities. Keep 1.2600 and 1.2800 in mind as great levels to short the pair.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,882
  • May 18, 2010 4:25am May 18, 2010 4:25am
Quoting Bouzies
Ended up closing this trade on Friday @ 0.8513 for +70 pips and a decent result with using this strategy for the first time. I decided to close on Friday as I didn't want to leave trade open over the weekend and it also hit an area of support on the 1h chart.

Will keep on testing this strategy when the setup is right.

Well done , keep us posted when you see the opportunities.
  • #2,883
  • May 18, 2010 4:28am May 18, 2010 4:28am
Quoting Tuner
Hey there Shahab...
Sounds like a good start of the week for you!
This week I joined the train as well.
Got some shorts A/U , long U/CAD running.

After cashing in last week on A/J and CAD/J I had pending sell orders for those around the weekly pivots.. but those have not been filled.

Small Long EUR/AUD did also do pretty nice today with EUR recovering more.
But took profit on that one already now

Still happy with my A/U and U/CAD though.
For A/J and CAD/J I will now look for possible entries. without a new low now we could still see the levels...

Hi Tuner,
Welcome back. I looked at the levels on your chart, good levels for short.
I dont consider yesterday rally in equities anything more than a correction in their new downtrend; having said that I suggest selling A/U N/U G/U A/J N/J Cad/J G/J E/J on rallies.
  • #2,884
  • May 18, 2010 4:32am May 18, 2010 4:32am
Quoting MarcVUM
Shahab, are you using the Action Forex S/R values on A/U or your own calculations? Amy and I had similar H L & C figures that didn't match up to the ones that Action has. It has therefore offset the Weekly pivot and S/R's. Since we've pretty much blown through all Supports at this point it's hard to determine which calculations are right (Action's or my own).

Hi Marc, I use indicators for that purpose. Do you have a MT4 platform for trading or not? If not I suggest you open a MT4 account ,that will improve your trading and you can get all the fancy indicators up there too.
  • #2,885
  • May 18, 2010 4:38am May 18, 2010 4:38am
Quoting tpaulbeaumon
shahab8b - Tremendous work, and an excellent ethic for posting details and explanations, a true gentleman

I have to say I use some similar price analysis by the looks of things, but may I ask what other indicators you use beyond price action, and COT data of course I see RSI often on your charts. Pivot points? Any other indicators? Any otehr sentiment guages? etc

Many thanks.
Hi there, thanks for the comment. I use mostly RSI ,LSR and daily/weekly pivot,rarely I take a look at MACD but only for div.Fibs are really great too.
BTW, if you do the same PA analysis post your thoughts here, so we can learn from you.
  • #2,886
  • May 18, 2010 4:49am May 18, 2010 4:49am
Hi Shahab,

Do you currently see any good oppertunites to short the ej? I am completely lost as to where to try and short it!

Mahsam
  • #2,887
  • May 18, 2010 4:56am May 18, 2010 4:56am
E/J
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej2e.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #2,888
  • May 18, 2010 4:57am May 18, 2010 4:57am
Quoting mahsam
Hi Shahab,

Do you currently see any good oppertunites to short the ej? I am completely lost as to where to try and short it!

Mahsam

what kind of method do you use for trading?

BTW, you may want to short now, if scalping short at 115.07 sl=115.27
  • #2,889
  • May 18, 2010 5:02am May 18, 2010 5:02am
Quoting shahab8b
what kind of method do you use for trading?

BTW, you may want to short now
Hi Shahab,

i try to enter shorts or longs after the price bounces continously 2 or more times from resistance or support and try to get in for 30-50 pips. i am still new but this has been working for me so far in the past month have grown my acc abt 125% in one month doing this! do u think ej may be heading down now..? My chart is attached according to it ej has tested r1 arnd 3 times! I feel it should be going down for atleast 50-5 pips soon if the r1 holds this hr.
Attached Image
  • #2,890
  • May 18, 2010 5:04am May 18, 2010 5:04am
using my strategy and chart i attached previously i just went short targeting 50 pips lets see how that goes!


Mahsam
  • #2,891
  • May 18, 2010 5:08am May 18, 2010 5:08am
Quoting mahsam
Hi Shahab,

i try to enter shorts or longs after the price bounces continously 2 or more times from resistance or support and try to get in for 30-50 pips. i am still new but this has been working for me so far in the past month have grown my acc abt 125% in one month doing this! do u think ej may be heading down now..? My chart is attached according to it ej has tested r1 arnd 3 times! I feel it should be going down for atleast 50-5 pips soon if the r1 holds this hr.

You are doing pretty well, dont rely on others ,it seems you can make good decisions by yourself.
  • #2,892
  • May 18, 2010 5:10am May 18, 2010 5:10am
Quoting shahab8b
You are doing pretty well, dont rely on others ,it seems you can make good decisions by yourself.
thanks! Did u get a chance to look at my chart...? I am still new to forex so I like having the insights of some experienced traders like your self!


Mahsam
  • #2,893
  • May 18, 2010 5:16am May 18, 2010 5:16am
Quoting mahsam
thanks! Did u get a chance to look at my chart...? I am still new to forex so I like having the insights of some experienced traders like your self!


Mahsam

Yea, I looked at it, that's the reason I told you your doing well.
  • #2,894
  • May 18, 2010 5:17am May 18, 2010 5:17am
Quoting shahab8b
Yea, I looked at it, that's the reason I told you your doing well.
Thank you Shahab! Thats a big confidence booster for me


Mahsam
  • #2,895
  • May 18, 2010 5:56am May 18, 2010 5:56am
Hi there,

Do foreign COT report equivalents exist, as far as anybody here is aware of? Or, if there are no such equivalents, is it possible to combine pieces of COT data to get any useful info about cross currency pairs?

For instance, the COT report provides info about positions taken in EURUSD and USDJPY (or actually JPYUSD), but that does not help one who is interested in finding out how traders are positioned in EURJPY (unless one could somehow derive this info from EURUSD and USDJPY data).

Thanks!
It's not about how much you make, it's about how much you don't lose.
  • #2,896
  • May 18, 2010 6:23am May 18, 2010 6:23am
Hi,

Pls see attached chart ej had its 5th consistence reject trying to move above the high of 115.42. Just waiting for the drop! currently short at 115 looking for 50 pips (fingers crossed)


Mahsam
Attached Image
  • #2,897
  • May 18, 2010 6:50am May 18, 2010 6:50am
I see an inverse head & shoulders on your chart.
Failure is a feedback. Learn from it.
  • #2,898
  • May 18, 2010 6:52am May 18, 2010 6:52am
Quoting shahab8b
Hi there, thanks for the comment. I use mostly RSI ,LSR and daily/weekly pivot,rarely I take a look at MACD but only for div.Fibs are really great too.
BTW, if you do the same PA analysis post your thoughts here, so we can learn from you.

I agree re: fibs, and also use macd for div, i only tend to use rsi for div too. These are the only oscillators I look at. What is LSR btw? I dabbled with LSD, but that was a long time ago

I swing $ majors, but when I look to close longs I'll certainly try to post something in a timely manner. Cheers.
  • #2,899
  • May 18, 2010 7:00am May 18, 2010 7:00am
If I were a scalper I might look for support on USDCHF at .1255 or 1205, and resistance on EURUSD around .2460 or even 2525?

disclaimer -IM NOT A SCALPER!-
  • #2,900
  • May 18, 2010 7:07am May 18, 2010 7:07am
Quoting mahsam
Hi,

Pls see attached chart ej had its 5th consistence reject trying to move above the high of 115.42. Just waiting for the drop! currently short at 115 looking for 50 pips (fingers crossed)


Mahsam

Seems like it was a bad call got out of the trade -35 pips


Mahsam
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