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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #22,721
  • May 17, 2010 3:28am May 17, 2010 3:28am
Quoting smikester
This is how I see the monthly. With moves like this I don't see trend lines or channels as useful. There is support at 1.24 and 1.23 but in the context of the monthly chart the major next level is 1.19 - 1.17

Attachment

US dollar is bullish across the range of currencies so this will now amplify Euro's fall, in my opinion. I will be looking for retracements towards 1.2450 to add to my shorts. Other than that I just hold on.
Thank you so much for your monthly chart. Your chart is clear and explain everything. Once again, thanks for your guidance.
  • #22,722
  • May 17, 2010 4:26am May 17, 2010 4:26am
Quoting smikester
This is how I see the monthly. With moves like this I don't see trend lines or channels as useful. There is support at 1.24 and 1.23 but in the context of the monthly chart the major next level is 1.19 - 1.17

Attachment

US dollar is bullish across the range of currencies so this will now amplify Euro's fall, in my opinion. I will be looking for retracements towards 1.2450 to add to my shorts. Other than that I just hold on.

hi just out of curiosity but where is ur stop loss for ur trade
  • #22,723
  • May 17, 2010 5:40am May 17, 2010 5:40am
Quoting yuan83
hahaha i using ibfx. but if u ask me. best is open an acct in sg n keep in SGD! haha more stable anytime! i tot they were talking abt USD will collapse over time? anw now e SG govt making SGD stronger too. ha
Hi guys,

I am from SG too. I am a full time trader, IMHO keeping a SGD acc is a good idea, not because SGD will be stronger or that the USD will be weaker, that should not be a concern to you, because these things are out of your control. The cost to take out the money and the currency exposure you will have if your bal is in USD for example should be your concern.

We use several brokers both internationally and locally. May I humbly suggest Oanda Singapore. If you have a Standard Charted account, and you transfer your balance from Oanda, there will not be a fee.

Hope this is useful.

Regards,

Andrew
  • #22,724
  • May 17, 2010 6:42am May 17, 2010 6:42am
Quoting AlwaysLearn
It wasn't the lot size. It was all the losing trades. The EA doesn't put sl. It just enter trades at double the initial lot size in the same direction. Therefore, there was once I had 3 losing trades totaling about 500 pips loss with each trade double the lot size. Luckily, the market rebounded and managed to close 2 win trades and 1 lost trade. But, it is not an effective nor is it a good method should the market be trending long term. .....
This sounds like the score bot's EA........ their office is near Bugis?
  • #22,725
  • May 17, 2010 7:24am May 17, 2010 7:24am
Quoting yuan83
hi just out of curiosity but where is ur stop loss for ur trade
Hi yuan. I have been short on and off all the way down from 1.5. You may be interested to see these posts: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=2772

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=3370339&postcount=2765

I am currently short off an hourly chart set up at 1.2570 with a stop loss at 1.2449 which I am trailing using an H1 Donchian channel. I use this because it sets my stop loss above recent resistance levels. I fully expect to get knocked out of this trade soon.
Gone to a better place
  • #22,726
  • May 17, 2010 7:37am May 17, 2010 7:37am
H4 has formed a morning star. The next candle will confirm if this formation is valid. Are we expecting the price to move back to EMA21?
Comments welcome.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #22,727
  • May 17, 2010 7:56am May 17, 2010 7:56am
Quoting andrewnair
This sounds like the score bot's EA........ their office is near Bugis?
It's near City Hall. PM me if you want more information on the EA. But then the EA is now - 936 pips on the smallest buy trade and -348 pips on the largest buy trade which is 5 times the lot size for the first buy trade, meaning there are 3 other buy trades in the middle which is also losing pips. There is also 2 sell trades but not enough to cover the losing trades.

But luckily, the above is not happening on my account as I manually closed the trades before the drawdown got so big. But still got burned.
  • #22,728
  • May 17, 2010 7:58am May 17, 2010 7:58am
Quoting silverfox88
H4 has formed a morning star. The next candle will confirm if this formation is valid. Are we expecting the price to move back to EMA21?
Comments welcome.
The news released by US does not seem to favour their currency. Another news, high impact, due to release in 3 minutes time.
  • #22,729
  • May 17, 2010 8:02am May 17, 2010 8:02am
Quoting AlwaysLearn
It's near City Hall. PM me if you want more information on the EA. But then the EA is now - 936 pips on the smallest buy trade and -348 pips on the largest buy trade which is 5 times the lot size for the first buy trade, meaning there are 3 other buy trades in the middle which is also losing pips. There is also 2 sell trades but not enough to cover the losing trades.

But luckily, the above is not happening on my account as I manually closed the trades before the drawdown got so big. But still got burned.
ok thanks for the info, sometime back went there for a "preview" cause my partner wanted to put some funds in an EA, but as i was talking to the guy and got more information on the EA, i told him he was mad with his risk. most pple lost 70-90% of the account so i suggest you becareful using the EA. its a wonder hes still open
  • #22,730
  • May 17, 2010 8:15am May 17, 2010 8:15am
Quoting andrewnair
ok thanks for the info, sometime back went there for a "preview" cause my partner wanted to put some funds in an EA, but as i was talking to the guy and got more information on the EA, i told him he was mad with his risk. most pple lost 70-90% of the account so i suggest you becareful using the EA. its a wonder hes still open
My friend introduced me to this EA about beginning of March. That was the first time I learnt about forex. So I jumped at the opportunity to start making profits without my input. But, after 3 weeks, my account was in floating loss of more than 50%. So, I decided to start learning about forex trading and now I thank my lucky stars I did learn a bit and closed the positions. If not, my account will be in the same state as to what I mentioned above.

The people in this thread have helped me a lot, especially to understand the importance of money management and setting stop loss. Now, I still have to trust in the EA to trade for me as I am still not up to par to trade live. Maybe by July, I will start penny trading.

Meanwhile, new week has started and hope you people gather massive pips this week!
  • #22,731
  • May 17, 2010 8:17am May 17, 2010 8:17am
Quoting AlwaysLearn
The news released by US does not seem to favour their currency. Another news, high impact, due to release in 3 minutes time.
It does looks like morning star formation is valid. Let see what is going to happen next.
  • #22,732
  • Edited 6:05pm May 17, 2010 5:54pm | Edited 6:05pm
Ive read 20 percent of the pdf file. I think it is common sense that is packaged into defined rules.

Like for instance, when a candle reach all the way up to 62 ema,the blue line, it will almost certainly pullback from this move.


I call such a big and impulsive move as baloon. THis will always cause:

oppurtinities to enter the market, people entering in the opposite direction of the move, and tp taking, causing the retrace.


Hangman reversal: indicating big volatility, and momentum. Lots of TP taking, and people entered, driving it down, indicating that the market believe it is going in this direction.


A candle with a short wick that closes above 35 and 50 ema: Since it is not a hangman, but it has a short wick. TO make up for the short wick(indicating less volatility,and more stability), the price has to have been steadily rising for a while, to cross both emas, indicatin OS/OB levels.

“5-o’clock somewhere” bounce: indicating streength, not many that believes that the price will go against the direction of the trend, since it bounced of the 5 and 10 sma, indicating streenght to continue the direction of the trend


Above 62 ema:is like selling at the uppber bollinger band, indicating ob/os levels, except that 62 is a slower line, increasing percentage of the trade to be in your favour.



Ive never used these rules, ive had them mentally in my discretionary trading, and these work wonderfully.

THe rules contained in this pdf is not necessary, i would not suggest anyone to follow the blindly without understanding why they work. The importance is to grasp the logick, and see the big picture. THats why i think some people here also agree on the fact that you need screen time, and get a feel(understanding why it works)

Pls correct if me, if ive analysed why the strategies work in a faulty manner.

Actually, i was working on writing down my trading strategy. This pdf have helped me define my strategy a bit better..., and i will certainly read the whole pdf, and come back to it,as well as digesting this thread, and compare the simliaritie to my trading style,and get inspired

Myself, im an expert trader. DOing this for many years.

in this blog, i show my latest trades, 57, where 51 were winners:

www.cashfxspot.blogspot.com/

Im more of a scalper, but i rely heavily on my knowledge of where the price may head the next 50 or 100 pips.

I i think i will rather look into 4 hour macd as this is something totally different, that i dont use in my analysis. It blows my mind that it works,analysing the momentum for profit. Very interesting idea. The strategies contained here, is what i already use more or less.
  • #22,733
  • May 17, 2010 6:03pm May 17, 2010 6:03pm
What people should take into account, and not blindly follow these rules are:

understanding that news impact on price, and adjusting your strategy accordingly.

Taking into account technical levels. And price on other time horizons(long term trend and medium term trend).

For instance, if your short is in the direction of the medium term trend, i would give the trade a higher probability of success.


I guess these tips have always been told in this thread, and is part of perfecting this strategy.
  • #22,734
  • May 17, 2010 7:59pm May 17, 2010 7:59pm
Just figure out (may be some of you already did) that 89 EMA in current time frame is 20/21 EMA on higher time frame ( eg 87 on m15 is 20/21 ema on H1, 89 ema on H1 is 20/21 ema on H4).

The price action near 89 EMA is pretty much the price action near the center line of the bollinger band. The H4 system is very close to a MTF bollinger band sytem.

If you like, you can compact all info you need into your favor trading time frame by adding 20 EMA (using Dyanmic MA indicator) and MACD (MTF MACD) for H4, H1, M15 into your favor time frame. Now you have every thing you need on one chart.
  • #22,735
  • May 17, 2010 8:32pm May 17, 2010 8:32pm
Quoting woo
Ive read 20 percent of the pdf file. I think it is common sense that is packaged into defined rules.

Like for instance, when a candle reach all the way up to 62 ema,the blue line, it will almost certainly pullback from this move.


I call such a big and impulsive move as baloon. THis will always cause:

oppurtinities to enter the market, people entering in the opposite direction of the move, and tp taking, causing the retrace.


Hangman reversal: indicating big volatility, and momentum. Lots of TP taking, and people entered, driving it down,...
interesting observation on ur part. and well nice win to loss ratio but if u ask me it not abt winning alot. it's about how much you win. i see that you have a big big loss compared to ur other wins, it will be better if u can do without that
  • #22,736
  • May 17, 2010 8:56pm May 17, 2010 8:56pm
EURUSD and GBPUSD may be near a short term turning point now.

For both.

H4 MACD shows positive improvement.
H1 MACD is at zero level.

Prices are near the H1 21 EMA.
If price break through H1 21 EMA again and retest (watch closely how
H1 MACD behaves) hold, there is a chance that both may head for H4
21 EMA during London session tonight.

Even though fundamental is not good for the GBP and EUR, short term
techcnical correction is still possible.
  • #22,737
  • Edited May 19, 2010 7:22am May 18, 2010 8:19am | Edited May 19, 2010 7:22am
I am risking 50 pips to short EURUSD

Short: 12405
SL: 12455

H4 has reached EMA21 and H1 shows dark cloud cover with MACD confirmation and also showing many tails. Any mistakes with my trade?

Edit: I added another short position on GBPUSD and woke up with 130 pips profit. Quickly close this position and leave EURUSD on to ride on the trend.

Edit: Close my position for EURUSD when I see sudden strength pushing price to move above EMA21 on H1 with 100+ pips profit. Guess the news in 10 mins time might have some positive effect.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD (Weekly).gif Size: 19 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #22,738
  • May 18, 2010 8:20am May 18, 2010 8:20am
just to check with you guys, i have had much more time trading now, would like to know if anyone has been trading this system using smaller timeframes, like 5 min 15 min chts?
  • #22,739
  • May 18, 2010 8:23am May 18, 2010 8:23am
Quoting silverfox88
I am risking 50 pips to short EURUSD

Short: 12405
SL: 12455

H4 has reached EMA21 and H1 shows dark cloud cover with MACD confirmation and also showing many tails. Any mistakes with my trade?
My opinion is to wait for it to break the 12400 before shorting it. Now it's still too early to tell.
  • #22,740
  • May 18, 2010 8:27am May 18, 2010 8:27am
Quoting AlwaysLearn
My opinion is to wait for it to break the 12400 before shorting it. Now it's still too early to tell.
Ya, looks like I have shorted too early.
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