No Brainer Trades | Page 695 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

GBP/USD, USD/CHF, USD/JPY

Similar Threads

No brainer fundamental trades 55 replies

This time... I'm Keeping MY MONEY (BRV - No Brainer Trades) 3 replies

The Koala System (No brainer) 127 replies

EUR/GBP SHORT for No Brainer 67 replies

Selling USD and YEN is a no brainer. 12 replies

Attachments: No Brainer Trades
Exit Attachments

No Brainer Trades

  • #13,881
  • May 16, 2010 11:17am May 16, 2010 11:17am
mushwedu .... seatlerust .

have you anycharts to illustrate your new strategies .. would be interested in checking them out ..

cheers booker.
  • #13,882
  • May 16, 2010 11:32am May 16, 2010 11:32am
Quoting neo1599
Hi

Took the trade @ 1.0150 SL now below 1.0290 on 1 and others have it below 1.0190.

I am looking for targets: 1.0437, 1.07xx the last 1.1xxx

Cheers
nice trade ... good luck , i bottled out and took the smaller profit ...
  • #13,883
  • Edited 4:49pm May 16, 2010 4:18pm | Edited 4:49pm
Quoting booker66
nice trade ... good luck , i bottled out and took the smaller profit ...
Thanks.

I think its still good enough to enter again. SL below 1.0305 should work great.

There is something developing on the AUDUSD 1H Chart: Can some1 check. I think I see a very big H&S pattern

Draw a line at 0.8799, reduce magnification to 0. scroll back a bit and the first shoulder and the head formation(complete is very clear). The last shoulder looks to be forming presently at .8857, with weekly indicating a down move I believe this formation will be completed and a move of 581 pips indicated by H&S.

I dont trade this pair. Can someone confirm this one?
  • #13,884
  • Edited 2:31am May 17, 2010 1:19am | Edited 2:31am
I used to hate adding during strong trends because I would add at a retracement area and then have to endure drawdown. Now I set small market orders under the lowest low of a pull back, or areas like this.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd100517.gif Size: 15 KB
Gone to a better place
  • #13,885
  • May 17, 2010 1:53am May 17, 2010 1:53am
Quoting booker66
mushwedu .... seatlerust .

have you anycharts to illustrate your new strategies .. would be interested in checking them out ..

cheers booker.
Booker, Seattlerust and all interested...

I must appologise - I had computer problems Friday and then time just ran out, so I took the weekend off completely. I have a meeting scheduled in Cape Town this morning, but will get stuck into starting my post on the system I use later today.

Cheers
  • #13,886
  • May 17, 2010 3:57am May 17, 2010 3:57am
i see potencial stron support on usdchf at 1.1245, the level convergies with 38.2 fib level and it has good history. Also i see potencial support on 1.1259-66. Looking to buy close to 1.1245
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: uchf.gif Size: 35 KB
  • #13,887
  • May 17, 2010 1:12pm May 17, 2010 1:12pm
Quoting booker66
have you anycharts to illustrate your new strategies ..
cheers booker.
Hi Booker,

Here is a setup today that falls into my radar screen. The S/R stems directly from the weekly chart. The daily and the 4H do not really add any information so I have not included them.

What I see is price has penetrated the 1.2518 level which since June 2006 has been support. I anticipate now that it will act as resistance and will be respected. (Note that I draw the line at 1.2518 but really will be some band of price.)

To actually take the trade, I need to see some entry pattern and as shown on the hourly chart I have a Gartley pattern forming with the completion in confleunce with the weekly resistance level and last friday's S/R levels on the hourly. The Gartley is textbook at the 79% retracement and the 162% retracement and the AB=127%CD. I have set a limit sell at 1.2520.

My stop will be slightly above the top of the Gartley at 1.2580 and my T/P will be at 1.2350 which is the 62% retracement of the AD leg of the Gartley.

If I can be near the computer as the trade progress (assuming I am taken in) I will monitor it especially as price approaches the 1.2418 level which will act as support. Price has to get beyond that level for the trade to achieve my goal. With the strong downtrend and market sentiment behind me, I think there is a good probability of this happening.

I hope this gives you a good idea of what I am trying to develop. I welcome any questions and/or suggestions.

SR
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 051710W.gif Size: 17 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD 051710H.gif Size: 13 KB
  • #13,888
  • May 17, 2010 1:29pm May 17, 2010 1:29pm
Quoting smikester
I used to hate adding during strong trends because I would add at a retracement area and then have to endure drawdown. Now I set small market orders under the lowest low of a pull back, or areas like this.

Attachment
I hear ya, smikester. Very clear area here on daily chart and below. This trade is similar in concept to the EURUSD that I described above, except there is no Gartley, just the clear support turned to resistance. This also could be taken as a 79% retracement trade if the first hit was missed.

Glad to see you here. I sure would like to get this forum back up to speed. Much nicer place IMHO than the chat room. Too much gossip there.

SR
  • #13,889
  • May 17, 2010 2:29pm May 17, 2010 2:29pm
Quoting seattlerust
Hi Booker,

Here is a setup today that falls into my radar screen. The S/R stems directly from the weekly chart. The daily and the 4H do not really add any information so I have not included them.

What I see is price has penetrated the 1.2518 level which since June 2006 has been support. I anticipate now that it will act as resistance and will be respected. (Note that I draw the line at 1.2518 but really will be some band of price.)

To actually take the trade, I need to see some entry pattern and as shown on the hourly chart I have a Gartley...
nice chart SR (apt initial by the way!) .... these are good strategies and similar in a way to what im doing on the 4hr charts ... but your technical analysis is far superior to mine .... your entry looks sound and a repeatable pattern as shown in my eur weekly chart .. good luck.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdweekly.gif Size: 45 KB
  • #13,890
  • May 18, 2010 3:01am May 18, 2010 3:01am
Finally I'm ready to start my posts - sorry for the delay. I will run through the whole method I use in detail.

The system is basically trend following - that gives me an edge in that I don't try and pick turns. I found that it increased my hitrate and keeps me out of trouble.

Firstly, an up-trend can be defined as a series of higher highs and higher lows.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1274165012

When high "1" is exceeded, low "a" becomes valid, high "2" taken out, low "b" is valid etc. (As I will point out later, these progressively higher lows then become my stops for the open trades.)

My next post will show how I identify a change in trend...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #13,891
  • May 18, 2010 3:32am May 18, 2010 3:32am
The first way is looking at previous highs (of the previous down trend). My rule is that the trend has most probally changed, when 2 previous highs are taken out.

In the example, high "1" was the last significant high. After that a high was made at point "2", new (higher) low at "a", then a new high at "3", with its low at "b". When "3" is taken out, I assume that the trend has changed and start looking for long entries, using BRV's "stacking bricks method".

I draw a line on high 2 as well as high 3. I now want a clear break - which I define as a break with at least 1 candle completely clear above the previous high. As this did not happen when high "3" was taken out, the first entry would be a hook back to high "2". This hook back happened during the Asian session on a Monday, so I would not have been around for it - so I'll ignore that for this example.

My first valid entry would be a hook back to the high "4", which is even more valid as the old high at "1" was also taken out. The stop for this first trade is a few pips below the previous low at "c". When "5" is taken out,I move the stop to "d", After "6" to "e" etc. The next trade is a hook back to high "6", and so I will keep on entering trades until stopped out.

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1274165012

The next post explains the other way of looking for a change in trend...
  • #13,892
  • May 18, 2010 3:35am May 18, 2010 3:35am
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp1.gif Size: 15 KB


Sorry this is the picture for my previous post
  • #13,893
  • May 18, 2010 3:47am May 18, 2010 3:47am
The other method I use to identify a change in the trend, is BRV's "Over under" setup. In the example, I will go short at the arrow, with my initial stop abobe the high at "1". Again, I'll drag the stops behind me as each low (in this case) is taken out. All the while looking for new "stacking bricks" entries

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp3.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #13,894
  • May 18, 2010 3:55am May 18, 2010 3:55am
Quoting Mushwedu
Attachment

Sorry this is the picture for my previous post
More Mushwedu;

just a question: which TF's do you trade? You mentioned in an earlier posting that you trade smaller and larger TF's, do you apply the same strategy or different one's?

appreciate your clarification - I like your method of "trailing the stop" to the previous low/high trend depending...

Trade Safe
  • #13,895
  • May 18, 2010 4:33am May 18, 2010 4:33am
Obviously money management becomes critical as each trade will have different size stops. As a rule, I enter a trade with a 2% risk. I'll explain my method using my most recent short trade taken on 14 May 2010. For the example I'll assume that I have a $10,000 account.

The trade set up to go short at 14568 (2 pips below the low "a"), the last valid high "1" is at 1.4639 (here again I like to add 3 pips plus the spread, so my stop is set for 1.4646). The difference is 78 pips. 2% risk on $10,000 is $200, devided by 78, gives me 2.5 mini contracts.

I now split this into two, setting a profit target of 78 on one half (at 1.4490) and none on the second half. On Monday morning (Asian session), it reached my first target and closed half of the trade for a profit of 78 pips. At that point, my total risk is reduced to zero.

The other half of the trade is managed by dragging the stop to the new highs as the lows get taken out. In the example, when "b" was taken out, high "2" becomes the stop (7 pips lower than the initial stop). This means that the whole trade will yield a small profit, should the stop be run. Only if low "c" is taken out, can I move the stop further.

I also have a rule that at no time will I risk more than 2% of my capital. That means that I cannot enter a new trade before my first profit target is reached.

For interest sake, I closed my whole trade at the first target as I've already banked more than 20% this month on the method and because I was not going to be around on Monday. The trade should still be open and another short trade opened with the hook back to the low "b" yesterday. Both trades will have a stop above high "2".

We have now made two higer highs with higher lows, so if the recent highs around 1.4520 get taken out, you could argue that the trend is changing and close the shorts - this is where we still have some discression, but sticking to the rules returns more than enough profit. I am seriously considering closing all trades (or maybe 75%) at the first profit target.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp4.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #13,896
  • May 18, 2010 4:40am May 18, 2010 4:40am
Quoting Paulette
More Mushwedu;

just a question: which TF's do you trade? You mentioned in an earlier posting that you trade smaller and larger TF's, do you apply the same strategy or different one's?

appreciate your clarification - I like your method of "trailing the stop" to the previous low/high trend depending...

Trade Safe
Hi Paulette,

I have simplified my trading to the extent that I only trade GBP/USD on 1 hour on my main account. I have two smaller accounts where I trade EUR/USD, EUR,JPY, CAD/USD and Gold using the same method. All of them now on 1 hour, but I must admit that those accounts don't make any money (I'm just not consistent enough and miss lots of trades) I also still meddle in the 5 minute chart out of boredom and end up losing there as well! I regard those accounts as my "giving back" accounts, but I should take it more seriously though.

regards
  • #13,897
  • May 18, 2010 4:53am May 18, 2010 4:53am
Quoting Mushwedu
Hi Paulette,

I have simplified my trading to the extent that I only trade GBP/USD on 1 hour on my main account. I have two smaller accounts where I trade EUR/USD, EUR,JPY, CAD/USD and Gold using the same method. All of them now on 1 hour, but I must admit that those accounts don't make any money (I'm just not consistent enough and miss lots of trades) I also still meddle in the 5 minute chart out of boredom and end up losing there as well! I regard those accounts as my "giving back" accounts, but I should take it more seriously though.

regards...
Hi Mashwedy,

definitely agree - I find the 5min charts a bit of a pshyc game too. I trade longer TF's, i.e Day/4hr and 4hr/1hr (always with the D/W trend) - sometimes I will enter either of the said combinations off a 15min TF if I can see a really strong S/R level, a real NBT. I am in the process of cementing a second strat based on S/R levels and found you strat very interesting.

Fortunately GBP/USD carries a lot of momentum in the UK session hence my preference for that pair too... I monitor 18 other charts for the longer TF levels.

Trade safe
  • #13,898
  • May 18, 2010 5:22am May 18, 2010 5:22am
Quoting Paulette
Hi Mashwedy,

definitely agree - I find the 5min charts a bit of a pshyc game too. I trade longer TF's, i.e Day/4hr and 4hr/1hr (always with the D/W trend) - sometimes I will enter either of the said combinations off a 15min TF if I can see a really strong S/R level, a real NBT. I am in the process of cementing a second strat based on S/R levels and found you strat very interesting.

Fortunately GBP/USD carries a lot of momentum in the UK session hence my preference for that pair too... I monitor 18 other charts for the longer TF levels.

Trade...
Wise move - I've also learnt that longer TF's work better for me. Also trading too many charts end up exhausting me which leads to mistakes and missed trades - but that's just me.

Regards
  • #13,899
  • May 18, 2010 7:00am May 18, 2010 7:00am
Quoting Mushwedu
Wise move - I've also learnt that longer TF's work better for me. Also trading too many charts end up exhausting me which leads to mistakes and missed trades - but that's just me.

Regards
I find that with the broader spectrum of charts to analyze, I get a better view of i.e. GBP strenght / weakness and opportunities on the Day TF takes a few days to develop, allowing me sufficient time to "measure twice and cut once" so to speak;

Sometimes you will note a clear pattern, i.e. triangle on one of the crosses that you just cannot ignore especially if the pattern co-insides with confluences - then you just have to wait on the break... E.g. Eur/JPY was working itself into a triangle on Day/4hr a few days before she dropped over 1000 pips.

But still in the process of learning, I think it is a constant, if not something new about the technical side, it will sure let you learn something about yourself.

Trade safe
  • #13,900
  • May 19, 2010 7:53pm May 19, 2010 7:53pm
Hello, i was looking, and this looks like a good entry going short in USD/JPY H1 chart

http://img340.imageshack.us/img340/5...djpy190510.jpg

What do you think?

Greetings
3 traders viewing now