The ups and downs

Ok this thread is my own systems and ideas i get and ill post them all here, some might work to a great extent and some might fail horribly, i am not going to promote my godlike superiority if i by accident make a good system this thread is going to be about me helping others if i can and others helping me when i have a question.
Ok strap on your seatbelts because we are now going to crash into the world of idiotic behavior 3,2,1 we have lift off.

Ok and just by the way i am a afrikaans speaking South African, so my eng spelling might not always be on the mark so excuse me if i make a grammer or spelling mistake every now and then.

Ok what do i believe about trading and what rules do i have.(this is just in general not a system, yet)

I believe that the market can only move up or down, so on avg you have a 50% chance of winning if you just flip a coint and trade into one direction, that is the exact reason y position and swing traders are more prone to succeed, they merly climp in on a pre existing trend and put up a bigish stop loss. Alot of day traders focus way to much on predicting and reversals, as my signiture says, reversals are early trends just wait alittle, also they have much smaller stop losses so not only does such a trader trade more on a 'gut' feeling he also has less breathing room and more likly to fail.

Lets get maths into this.
Position and swing traders: such a trader will more often than not make a 3:1 and 2:1 RR because of the extended time that he/she is able to ride the trend.
This means that he can lose 3 trades and win only one and break even, so if he can flip a coin he can most prob make money in the forex market.

Day traders: This trader will generally be trying to catch quick moves with high % chance of winning so his RR will not be as dramatic as a position and swing traders.
This means that he would have to have a better education than a swing or position trader to make money and the old coin trick wont work as good.

Ok before i get to the solution let me go over other things to.

The general idea of MM is good but not good enough, please show me a corp or any big time player than will risk 2-3 % of his roll on one trade that is just not wise.

I say for longer term trading you risk 0.5% of your roll and for day short term trading 0.5%-0.2% of your roll.

Few reasons.
1) longer term trader as stated has a better chance of winning a trade, its unlikley for such a person to lose a 100 trades in a row if he has big stops and not win atleast another 30 in the 100 trades he still has left in his account, so he would be on break even again.
2)Day trading you dont have 200pip, so you can not afford to lose 7 trades at 2-3% of your roll that would be round about 15% so if you had a $10 000 start up capital you would only have $8500 left(this is not accurate to the tee) so if you risked 2% first trade that would of been $200 but now its only $170 so your amount of profit you can make per pip is down by a bigish amount taken into account the account size.
3)Some traders just cant take the massive losses of money, and risking so little would really take that pressure away and let them stay focusd on their goal of making pips.

Ok what is my solution to the negative factors of long term and short term trading???
Ok i have a saying:"Think with a long term mentality, but set a short term plan."(I am a chess player so you can see y i would say nonsense like that lol)
Ok the idea behing thay is this, you should want to have goals in life healt, wealt, good relation with family, or a life partner or whateva you want to achieve, but its not going to help sitting doing nothing or waiting to long to take action, so plan for the future(longer term move) but start making certain steps towards that now(short term trend).

Ok so the solution is short term trading(1hour charts).
Negative factors of position trading: you lose out on alot of smaller big traders while you are riding the big one out, so you income generated is lower.
Also you have to risk big amounts at a time, and you suffer huge draw down to, which might be stressful for some.

Negative factors of day trading: you can get eaten alive by spread if you dont select your trades well, but the problem with that is most ppl do day trading so they can get more trades so they actially want to over trade and in that lays the problem.
There is also no solid trend in a short time frame that forms over years like in the larger time frames, so a big news event might drastically effect your position, and can also alter the trend in many cases.

This is where short term trading comes in handy.
You dont need to scroll through 50 diff time frames to identify the trend because the trend can easily last a week so you have enough time to enter a trade in the direction of the trend.
Also while news events do effect your trades on short term trading to you dont really warry about that, because either you are in a trade, or you get in at london open or you just wait for the news to finish it to spike and then wait and see for continuation of trend.(if your in a trade you would most prob have moved stop to break even by now, or gotten out.

Ok so by now you would of realised i do not believe in you can get rich quick, you need money to do that, i also assume most ppl that come here dont have tons of starting capital els they would have already been sucessful and not needing support here.

My goals is to be way better off in the following 2 years so thats quite some time, but in comparison to your avg life span thats not alot of time to invest for a financial secure life, but first you will need to offer up your time which is a risk, because time is the most valueble thing a human has, to prove my point, y would someone rather take the plane to get somewhere and pay more that rather just taking the bus which is so much cheaper, but will take hours for you to get from point A to B.

Ok thats the first part of the thread now that you guys know what i think about the market and so on, now we can start with the systems and ideas and questions.
I am currently still demo trading and looking for a good micro account broker, i am really considering FXCM because they are well known but have thought about oanda to, so anyone that has info on them and how they work the least amount you can risk etc etc please tell me about that.
I will post ideas and chart and thoughts behind these ideas i had from when i started to now and how they evolved, and how the more i understood the market the more i became fimiliar with the KISS idea, and that the simpler it is the more you learn and the better you become.

Ok about me i am a confirmd clown so i like making jokes, fooling around so i do not expect this to be a professional like thread just would ask of ppl not to spam this thread with nonsense, this is to help everyone thats willing to help and be helpd, i dont want 'smart' ppl here(those that think they know everything but dont knw jack)we are now all on the same level, if you are a garbadge disposal man or the mayor of king williams town(lol) we dont care we are all just traders.

Ok so lets get started and do the funky chicken

My general idea was right in the beginning that when the market made a big drop compaird to the other drops or a massive climb then it should reverse and then it would be a good opertunaty to buy if it dropd or sell if it went up but that was problimatic coz there are alot of false signals and its most likley you will lose if you have no filter.
Ok look at the up and down bars you get a semi extreme then you wait for the open of the new bar as confirmation and it works great when there is a good trend yes, at first glance this looks like a hole grail but inspect closer the areas with the x shows conseladation, so every high you would sell and low you buy and get no where just losing to spread the whole time, and alot of the other buy and sell signals have another signal within a few bars from that making it really tricky to no when to get in and then the other problem is when do you get out, which is a low, so this is just a basic idea that sounds great buy when low sell when high, obv it must work but its not that easy.
That was my first trade experience.

2) Horizontal support and resistance.
I do think there are certain levels that might indicate market being over sold or overbought big time but most ppl go to far with this, ill illistrate, i took my chart, made my candles all black, and just drew in a bunch of lines, you will see it does support on some of those line, its bound to touch somewhere if you draw in a bunch of lines, you can do that with your own chart just to look.

3)Moving avg.
Ok i still use Moving avgs, i like moving avg take them to my grave.
But the general idea is when faster moving avg crosses slower on to up side you trade up, when crossing to the downside you trade down.
But like most stuff you tend to find out they only work great in a trending market haha.
Look in the middle few crosses but it moves no where really, and then in the end of the chart there a nice drop and it works, so that only works in a trending market.
Yet again but duh i only want to trade when it trends obv who trades when its choppy dumbass, but with just the crossing youl neva be able to determen weather its going to trend or not, so you will have to take that trade.
It looks so obv after it happend, man really must be rigged

4)Indicators.
ADX,Stochastics,MFI,RSI,MACD etc. etc.
ADX: if it moves up maket moving into a trend most likly, but its damn lagged like hell.
Stochastics: Ppl use it to indicate overbought and over sold markets, but sometimes it stays over sold or over bought.
RSI: exactly the same as stochastics, but can be used in diff ways to.
MACD: wait for cross over 0 line wow, that also is super lagged
Also some of these indications can be misleading, ex stochastics gives over sold indication in strong downtrend, but it still goes down, so it would give you a false trade.

Ok So now i have started to realise that these indicators all work great in trending markets, but they dont work great as stand alone and are even worse in choppy markets then i started combining them like all new traders do just looking for that method thats going to give me 90% win rate.
So i was reading about woodies CCI system, bunch of great ideas, he even claimd he could trade without looking at the chart, just the indicator, that really got me hooked on trying to get that indicators to line up perfectly with the market and i was trying to creat a chartless indicator to, and this was my first evolutionary move to starting to understand the movment of the market, because i am now not just doing what the gurus say, starting to create my own way of trading.

My thinking was this i wanted a indicator that could show me a market thats over sold or over bought(opted for Stochastics), wanted to look at a volume indicator so i liked the MFI for that and the CCI for trend.
My thinking at that time was this(it was my understanding of the indicators) that CCI is a trend indicator and MFI is a volume indicator, so if the trend moves over the volume then trend is up and when under the volume then trend is down.

So the rules to the system was if you want to buy as in ex in attached chart, you would buy when yellow CCI line crossd red slower stochastics line to the up.
If the yellow line is under the blue MFI you would exit that trade if it crosses the green faster stoch line, but if it crosses the blue MFI line like in ex then you would only exit the trade once it crosses the red slower stochastics line again.
And the same goes for selling just obv crossing to under the line slower red stochastics line.

Ok this lookd like a magic indicator, i havnt really tested it that much but on back testing you get alot small losses and bigger wins, this is suppose to be stand alone just use the indcator no price movment just the indicator, feel free to try it the CCI and the MFI is set on 27, and if you test it tell me how it works.

But this was part of my evolution and nr5. you might call it starting to think outside the box but that term is so cliche saying that tells me you thinking inside the box.

Ok that was one of my first different ideas i had, i have made many breakout systems, but many has failed me, but i will post them here and discuss what i learnd from my failure out of them, man it was really shitty feeling like a king everytime trying to fine tune my trading and then after a week or two back testing you find major flaws, but my lessons i have learnd was great and i am happy i had those ideas.

Ok the next idea i got was, ok the 'big dogs' all say let your winners run, sounds yet again very great, and all systems should have place the winner to go wild, dont keep this hooo on leash, ok but then it poped ok, but when you day trade very short term, then you enter positions with the longer term trend, so y not enter a position from the shorter term chart with every signal you get and you only close all of them when the longer term trend is finito, so you would basically add to the long term trend with higher % of it winning coz its with the momentum

I am going to take a nap really tired, will continue posting on tonight.
But i have a fav to ask of anyone here that knws scrips or EA's whateva it is.
Its not something super complicated its like a script EA.
I think that in the higher time frames a grids distance between one another is a good space for a stoploss ex. the grids are 55pips from one another then you input a 55 stoploss from where you enterd.
So i want it to measure the grid distance the whole time like a EA and then the script part is, i want to press b for buy and s for sell, then it sells on market order, but when its 1:1 in profit, in this ex when price has moved 55pips in my direction it takes off half my position and moves rest up to b/e until i press c for cancel.

Now is that possible, if so can anyone assist in that please. i will post my other wack ideas tonight until i get to where i am now lol