Archie's Trade Journal / Live Calls & Set-Ups

lg eu @ 457, sl 449, tp 479, gap close trade...

sl moved to b/e, since bounce here would form a lower DT on M5, also got a counter signal with close below 24sma on m5, but stayed in the trade and rode out the retrace, should've closed for a better entry, but trade now back in the green and so far moving in my direction, also OsMA moving above zero line, which is a green light to stay in the trade...

sell limit triggered + 22, first catch of the week.

Please note that this thread is purely for recording system testing results, feel free to chip in with suggestions and ideas, however, if you'd like to discuss the system in question then please go here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=208103

Points of interest, aside from selling the top of the move

st sell off, appears to have found (at least interim) support right where the fibo s/r indi says it should, right to the pip...

Getting very late here now in the UK, so no more trading tonight...

eu has now travelled up a fair amount over the past few days, would imagine it's showing some strong over bought readings and may well be due a correction...

Fundies - ECB confirmed rate hike +25 basis points last week, and FOMC confirmed they plan to continue with QE... Market seems indifferent to the EZ debt situation, just as it has been since around the middle of last year...

Looking forward to seeing how things develop into London, NY later, and will be looking for some better entry triggers for st plays...

Longer term technical picture - weekly close above multi-year falling trend line, hold above on retest would point to more upside...

Nicked off of Jay Walker's video thread:

http://www.truthispornography.com/20...09-april-2011/

Up late again last night, so overslept this morning (very bad habit, which needs addressing), so no entry triggers taken yet...

A quick analysis of today's M5 PA reveals that pretty much all signals taken through the consolidation range would have yielded 5 to 10 pips, more importantly with no stop outs, provided profits were banked quickly...

The most recent signal exactly an hour before the NY open has followed through very nicely, an entry taken would now be up over 30 pips and still in play...

If ya snooze, ya lose...

Clue to hold the most recent trigger would have been follow through on the OsMA indi, looks like I would have been shaken out approaching the 200ema, with the slight pull back in OsMA, but a re-entry could have easily been made by switching to the M1 tf... Alternatively look at some kind of ratchet set-up on a trailing stop or a scale out strategy...

last H4 bar, with under an hour till close looks pretty bearish, H4 stochs heading down from ob, guestimating it could correct to 437x, where we find trendline and weekly pp confluence in a few bars time, not checked for fibo levels...

also, exit signal now confirmed on m5 with OsMA crossing into +ve territory, so last trigger was good for 30 pips...

re. M5 chart in last post, we now got a counter trend entry signal, not particularly great since MACD is very -ve and OsMA has already been rising for a few bars and may already be peaking, also am just focussing on trend entries during this initial testing phase... Let's learn to walk before we try and run...

Would also be buying a test of support turned resistance from the day's consolidation range, PA looks corrective in nature, so not at all comfortable going long from here, will wait for confirmation and reversal of corrective leg for a short entry in impulse direction (possible bear flag pattern on M1)...

No economic numbers out today, but plenty of speeches around the European close...

sh EURUSD at 1.44323
sl: 1.44550,

quite a wide stop, let's see if we can ride this down to 437x...

Actually jumped the gun by not waiting for bar close and it has now only put in a wick below the 24sma, but stops and limits are in and risk is very limited with small lot size...

Also, although OsMA looks to have peaked and turned down, this was not a particularly clean signal...

-9 as I type...

stopped -23, messy entry, jumping the gun proved costly...

early day's and let's learn from the mistake...

looks as tho' the original long signal was the one to take for a scalp, I allowed myself to be affected by bias from the H4 which has now closed as a long lower wick hammer...

if we get another short signal within the next few bars, I will try it again, since OsMA is looking a lot better...

Fresh short taken @4442, sl @4459, tp @437x...

used 55ema as a trigger, signal generated by OsMA cross under zero, price closed under 24sma and broke trend line on the next bar...

Stops and limits in, step away from the keyboard...

Intraday range now at 62, today would have been a good day to not trade and go out to enjoy the sunshine instead...

Trade update, let's see if riding out the retrace was a good move...

stopped @ b/e, clearly we've had narrow range play, tp was based on a strongly trending market...

need to adapt to the conditions, maybe look to add an underlying trend strength indicator?

Notes: Unless clearly trending, when taking triggers off of the M5, targets need to be very conservative, exits could be taken from counter candle formations, alternatively, on entry immediately switch to a lower tf (in this case M1) for a counter MA or OsMA exit signal...

How do we objectively define clearly trending? Addition of ADX indi?

Also, do not pre-empt signals, wait for bar close to confirm, better awareness of support/resistance before entry in range plays for R:R calculations...

Also, think about initial hard stop distance...

Also, not yer average day, 62 range and some very nasty chop since NY open, see image...

sh eu @ 4430, sl @ 4447, tp open...

adheres to set up rules...

issues: illiquid time of day between sessions, ADX very weak, looking for support break on third test (close for scalp if support holds)...

Closing on counter signal would have resulted in a 6 pip loss, but so far waiting out the retrace has worked...

Looking forward to testing under decent trending conditions...

m5 200ema capped retrace for now, sl tightened up to 4442...