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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #22,701
  • Edited May 15, 2010 1:48am May 14, 2010 9:37pm | Edited May 15, 2010 1:48am
Quoting wuming79
Oh man...do you guys think EURUSD will be gone? If it is gone, can the system still works well in other pairs? I was just getting used to the rhythm in EURUSD....
I scan 14 pairs on 4H, daily, weekly using the rhythm and TC signal, I see they all work so far.
  • #22,702
  • May 14, 2010 10:28pm May 14, 2010 10:28pm
Quoting wuming79
Oh man...do you guys think EURUSD will be gone? If it is gone, can the system still works well in other pairs? I was just getting used to the rhythm in EURUSD....
This will happen after China takes over Europe and North America.
Ha Ha, You worry too much.

Have a nice weekend.
  • #22,703
  • May 14, 2010 10:46pm May 14, 2010 10:46pm
really?haha that's good news. :-)
  • #22,704
  • May 15, 2010 2:14am May 15, 2010 2:14am
Quoting AlwaysLearn
Took a short on EJ at 115.93 with sl at 116.27 (candle open price) and tp at 115.00 (near previous low candle besides the insane bear candle).

That was my plan but keyed the tp wrongly at 114.00. However, managed to see the price retrace and set sl at 115.23 which was hit. +70 pips. Took the trade as the previous candle was a shooting star and retraced from near 21MA. R:R ratio was also more than 1. 23 pips left on the table due to my mistake of entering the tp. Have to take note to double check my trade after placing it.

Will consider entering...
Where is your chart ? It is essential that you post your charts if you are going to be a good trader.

New traders should get into the habit of posting their charts.
I have noticed that most experienced traders on this thread always post charts and that's because it has become a good habit for them. It is all part of the discipline of trading. Some even have daily journals or blogs.

Right now, it is easy to make pips because the trend is very strong but when it isn't, you will want to keep records of why you took a trade and whether it was a success or failure. Keeping charts helps us to become better traders that way.
  • #22,705
  • May 15, 2010 2:25am May 15, 2010 2:25am
Quoting smikester
Here's a nice one:

Attachment

I particularly like this reversal because it's Friday and there was likely to be some profit taking anyway.

Secondly it's off 0.8600 which is a key support/resistance point.

Thirdly it's off a pin bar.

Fourthly it's with the main trend.

The downside is there may be some support at 0.8545 so there may be a bounce
Really nice, too bad my picture is different.
  • #22,706
  • May 15, 2010 4:19am May 15, 2010 4:19am
Quoting xeneric
Where is your chart ? It is essential that you post your charts if you are going to be a good trader.

New traders should get into the habit of posting their charts.
I have noticed that most experienced traders on this thread always post charts and that's because it has become a good habit for them. It is all part of the discipline of trading. Some even have daily journals or blogs.

Right now, it is easy to make pips because the trend is very strong but when it isn't, you will want to keep records of why you took a trade and whether it was...
Sorry I did not attach because at one point I hit my attachment limit. Now I think there is no limit for attachments for me. I have attached the chart in this post with arrows showing the shooting star and my entry point.

Now that it's the weekend, I wonder if it will gap up or down when market opens.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej.jpg Size: 214 KB
  • #22,707
  • May 15, 2010 8:36am May 15, 2010 8:36am
Quoting silverfox88
Hi Palmer,

EURUSD is on a free fall. Congrat to you if you have shorted and still holding

I've been shorting the pair all week. The 4hr rhythm is very strong and I've been watching pullbacks on the lower timeframes for entries. My 4hr closed with an 8ema gap so I'm looking for a little pullback or stall in price come Sunday...
  • #22,708
  • May 15, 2010 8:39am May 15, 2010 8:39am
Quoting wuming79
Oh man...do you guys think EURUSD will be gone? If it is gone, can the system still works well in other pairs? I was just getting used to the rhythm in EURUSD....

From what I've been hearing on the news, a lot of people are saying EURUSD 1:1 at some point or 1.0000...this is what the longer term charts look like. I said before that there is always the potential for a pullback and on the 4hr chart this could be a couple hundred pips or so. During these types of trends, it's pretty much mandatory to look at the daily, weekly, and monthly charts for guidance too.

We've got a little 2 - 3 foot southeast swell rolling in right now..headed to the beach with the longboard....daddyo.
  • #22,709
  • May 15, 2010 10:38am May 15, 2010 10:38am
Quoting ira
Really nice, too bad my picture is different.
Sorry, ira, I don't know what you mean.
Gone to a better place
  • #22,710
  • May 15, 2010 5:06pm May 15, 2010 5:06pm
Quoting qphu
Thank for you post, may you give us your SL and TP in this trade?
I'm in this pair trading and my tp is 1.4525.
Thank you very much, good luck to you.
Here is my trade. 1st chart is the daily. Basically look at the blue rectangle and the support area where all the buying had previously pushed price back up. The second chart shows the TC on the 4hr method which closed below that support level. I thought it closed at the support level, but when I look back it closed below it so my entry was a little late. The 3rd chart shows the support level again. You can see that price made a lower high and with a bearing engulfing candle. Price showed a little support after the bearish engulfing candle and I entered there around the mid thirties. The yellow arrow shows my exit...Where price had shown some support before. As Palmer stated before, look to the left on your charts and see where price has reversed

Edit: I'm not sure why my arrow did not show up, but my exit is in the grouping of candles at the 1.46 level and if price comes back to that level it should act as nice resistance
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #22,711
  • May 15, 2010 6:54pm May 15, 2010 6:54pm
Quoting Palmer
I've been shorting the pair all week. The 4hr rhythm is very strong and I've been watching pullbacks on the lower timeframes for entries. My 4hr closed with an 8ema gap so I'm looking for a little pullback or stall in price come Sunday...



I exit EURUSD at 12542 thinking that there might be some support at the last low. However, the price continue to trend lower and I am looking for chance to re-enter now.

  1. Looking at weekly, it seems price has found some support at current level at the red and blue trendline
  2. Daily is also resting on last support (red trendline)
  3. H4 is showing invert hammer and if there is a gap up on Monday, this area might provide a temporaily support
  4. H1, MACD is showing first green line and if second green line appear on Monday, a RB might be forming.
  5. M30 is showing some small candles with lots of tails seem telling us some buying is happening at this area.

So my guess is there will be some retracement from now and looking to reenter again around EMA21 in H1.

All comments are welcome.

Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD (Weekly).gif Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD (Daily).gif Size: 20 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD (H4).gif Size: 18 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD (H1).gif Size: 18 KB
  • #22,712
  • May 15, 2010 7:10pm May 15, 2010 7:10pm
GBPUSD seems to have some some support on current area.

  1. Daily show MACD is very oversold and RSI also show heading near lower support line
  2. H4 show a RB forming with some tails at the previous 2 candlesticks and inverted hammer
  3. In H1, I see some higher low and is it going to form another higher higher?

Conclusion: Direction unclear to me.

All comments welcome.

Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD (Daily).gif Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD (H4).gif Size: 20 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD (H1).gif Size: 20 KB
  • #22,713
  • May 16, 2010 7:14pm May 16, 2010 7:14pm
Slight gap down for EJ on market opening withthe gap closed within the first 4hr candle. Direction should be down as price bounced off 23.6% fibo line. Waiting for signal from MACD. Comments?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 050510.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #22,714
  • May 16, 2010 7:42pm May 16, 2010 7:42pm
Quoting silverfox88
I exit EURUSD at 12542 thinking that there might be some support at the last low. However, the price continue to trend lower and I am looking for chance to re-enter now. [list][*]Looking at weekly, it seems price has found some support at current level at the red and blue trendline[*]Daily is also resting on last support (red trendline)[*]H4 is showing invert hammer and if there is a gap up on Monday, this area might provide a temporaily support[*]H1, MACD is showing first green line and if second green line appear on Monday, a RB might be...
I'm looking for a pullback or a stall as well. USDJPY might be trying to move lower...
  • #22,715
  • May 17, 2010 1:13am May 17, 2010 1:13am
EURUSD seems to have found a temporaily support at blue trendline from weekly. Is there going to be a retracement from blue back to red trendline on H4? Any comments?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD (Weekly).gif Size: 25 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSD.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #22,716
  • May 17, 2010 1:56am May 17, 2010 1:56am
Quoting silverfox88
EURUSD seems to have found a temporaily support at blue trendline from weekly. Is there going to be a retracement from blue back to red trendline on H4? Any comments?
A possible scenario for Tonight is that price go back to Asian session high at
1.23675 (near MA 21 of H1) on/near London session open and then starts a new short term down trend (watching for H1 MACD TC) back to Today's low.

H4 MACD is still pretty bearish; break through of H1 MA 21 must be confirmed before before the price can target the H4 MA.

Just my thought.
  • #22,717
  • May 17, 2010 2:42am May 17, 2010 2:42am
Quoting silverfox88
EURUSD seems to have found a temporaily support at blue trendline from weekly. Is there going to be a retracement from blue back to red trendline on H4? Any comments?
The red is not a trend line. 1.25 was the level to break and we may re-test that level. Last week's close was the most solid close under 1.25 and we are now looking to support at the next level: 1.19. You have to look at the monthly charts to see this.
Gone to a better place
  • #22,718
  • May 17, 2010 2:57am May 17, 2010 2:57am
Quoting smikester
The red is not a trend line. 1.25 was the level to break and we may re-test that level. Last week's close was the most solid close under 1.25 and we are now looking to support at the next level: 1.19. You have to look at the monthly charts to see this.
Hi Smikester,

Can you show me how your monthly chart looks like? Many thanks for your guidance.
  • #22,719
  • Edited 6:39am May 17, 2010 3:07am | Edited 6:39am
I'm risking a 1h entry short on gu

price has retraced almost to 21sma and bounced off of it. as the candle closed below the 8sma I entered
short@1,4374 sl 1,4460, tp 1,4202

edit: price retraced after entry completely to 21sma, luckily it didn't hit my sl close above.

the close of the actual candle offers now an even better short entry on 1h since price touched 21sma and bounced off of it and closed again below 8sma
however, the possibility of a corrective move still exists, nothing in certain

edit: sl hit
the problem with this trade was that I entered short while 4h was still showing a corrective move. it was a premature entry anticipating a tc which did not happen in the trades frame
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu 4h 17.5.10a.gif Size: 11 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gu 1h_ 17.5.10.gif Size: 11 KB
Attached Image
  • #22,720
  • May 17, 2010 3:14am May 17, 2010 3:14am
This is how I see the monthly. With moves like this I don't see trend lines or channels as useful. There is support at 1.24 and 1.23 but in the context of the monthly chart the major next level is 1.19 - 1.17

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd100517m1.gif Size: 17 KB


US dollar is bullish across the range of currencies so this will now amplify Euro's fall, in my opinion. I will be looking for retracements towards 1.2450 to add to my shorts. Other than that I just hold on.
Gone to a better place
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