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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #15,361
  • May 14, 2010 5:16pm May 14, 2010 5:16pm
Quoting jamjamjam
EMH is slowly being debunked, even amongst academics; a few hedge funds have capitalized on this for some time. That, however, does not give any credence to GANN beliefs. Probability and Statistics are a better path to focus your efforts.
I agree.

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  • #15,362
  • Edited May 15, 2010 10:03am May 14, 2010 6:07pm | Edited May 15, 2010 10:03am
hello all,

i enjoyed the recommended movies (by fti) "resurection of the dragon" and "red cliff" very much. there is a new movie about the life of confucius.

http://www.kickasstorrents.com/confu...-t3869854.html

after watching the recommended films, reading TAW and seeing this film about Confusius i think mindset (honor and discipline) are most important in proffesional trading. i think honor is a very risky scorpion/element but it can strengteng discipline wich is nr.1 and most difficult.

i am too practical for honor and too lazy/relaxed for discipline, so i am not trading.
for all here who are actively trading, i hope you have or develop this soldiers mindset.

kind greets, pax
even with my eyes open i cannot see everything
  • #15,363
  • May 14, 2010 7:01pm May 14, 2010 7:01pm
Quoting aiyahmarklah
...

Since you mentioned tier 1 banks and so on, the other factor equally important and is barely discussed is the structure, the topic is quickly forgotten in he later pages of this thread. Too bad....
Spot on Mark, as usual.
No holy grail, remember?
  • #15,364
  • May 14, 2010 7:32pm May 14, 2010 7:32pm
Quoting Gro
Compute cycles are possible with absolute precision but there is always exist an exception.I wrote about Cycles and Exception.

... it is written, hypothetically, if one person in the world.

[color=Red]PS I wrote...
Gro, sometimes I think there's a connection in your name.... Gro = Grow

Please expand on your thoughts
  • #15,365
  • May 14, 2010 7:33pm May 14, 2010 7:33pm
Quotes from Gro:

Compute cycles are possible with absolute precision but there is always exist an exception.I wrote about Cycles and Exception.

... it is written, hypothetically, if one person in the world.

PS I wrote about 5.5minutes and 6.9 on average 3.5.Decimal point is crucial if you understand.


You want a scientific study, or you can use the numbers in the abstract?

I used the computing cycles (computation of time civilizations that no longer exist, and not the Gregorian and Julian calculations) and came to this count.

You can try the abstraction of numbers 1,13,7,9,4 FTI provides the same ("my" decimal point indicates a change).
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Gro, sometimes I think there's a connection in your name.... Gro = Grow

Please expand on your thoughts
  • #15,366
  • May 15, 2010 2:32am May 15, 2010 2:32am
Although I'm totally lost on the Gro discussion I'm still loving this thread. Just recently finished my finals at law school and down at the folks for a few weeks and I plan to really dig into this MO. This thread is just plain fun to read... which is oftentimes not the case with trading threads. A lot of civility and exchange. Just wanted to thank FTI and especially everyone who engaged him publicly in the thread to expand upon things and everyone who continues with the thread.

I don't have a lot of preconcieved notions about trading so hopefully that will help me stay open to the teachings.

Had some filet mignon today . So a great start to the weekend haha.
  • #15,367
  • May 15, 2010 2:50am May 15, 2010 2:50am
Has anyone found some good material freely available on the internet regarding the law of vibration? I have found a Gann site dedicated to it but it's a subscription service, which I'm reluctant to follow without a reputable recommendation.
  • #15,368
  • May 15, 2010 5:07am May 15, 2010 5:07am
Quoting Zoran
Has anyone found some good material freely available on the internet regarding the law of vibration? I have found a Gann site dedicated to it but it's a subscription service, which I'm reluctant to follow without a reputable recommendation.
My take: there is no Law of Vibration, just the general phenonmenon of vibration and cycle observed by ancients (and moderns), common sense and observation say this is applicable to price action, just as the Law of Motion and Regression to Mean are applicable.
We make our own laws of vibration (there is no secret number or order) to become the skillful fighter who “puts himself into a position which makes defeat impossible, and does not miss the moment for defeating the enemy”
Although I have no interest in Gann's Law and do not believe in pre-determined / universal orders for the market I have no problem with such discussions, in fact I will be keeping my big ears open as always.
Rgs,
Baifu
  • #15,369
  • May 15, 2010 5:07am May 15, 2010 5:07am
Quoting Setebos
Spot on Mark, as usual.
No holy grail, remember?
A little off topic, however the true foundation lies in the structure, it pretty close to holy grail imo. Think about the bread and butter issue that is so closely guarded.

Setobos....shhh......
  • #15,370
  • May 15, 2010 5:43am May 15, 2010 5:43am
Quoting aiyahmarklah
A little off topic, however the true foundation lies in the structure, it pretty close to holy grail imo. Think about the bread and butter issue that is so closely guarded.

Setobos....shhh......
Yeah, I often wonder how puffy retrace materialize after dealers are forced to be net long (though at ever better avg price) in a bear market, and then how the rubber band snap back happen after dealers have unloaded their inventory at better price, is this blitz war? Idle speculation, my general understanding of the nitty gritty is so weak I can be way off the mark.
  • #15,371
  • Edited 6:57am May 15, 2010 6:42am | Edited 6:57am
Quoting aiyahmarklah
A little off topic, however the true foundation lies in the structure, it pretty close to holy grail imo. Think about the bread and butter issue that is so closely guarded.

Setobos....shhh......
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...1&postcount=75

Quoting Fti
@ Zoran,
I will not go into details of how it is done, As it is dealers bread & butter issue.
Just know that that there are ways of moving price, where he can make things happen.
Just understand that he is making the interbank market and it is his market.
If his book is threatened , there are ways he can neutralise the danger.
I hope you understand the sensitivities.

Mark,

I always thought that pertained to the ability of the Market Maker to engineer PA from the tripping of orders,(think who actually controls the candle). All of the talk(specially on some of the other order flow threads) all fails because you can't see their books and how it relates to their control of PA. Fti, as said as much, instead he has spoke about watching the pips(I read tics) for understanding.

Imho, Fti, has the ability to watch price action, better said the movement inside the candle, and understand what's going on at the desk. Combine that with years behind a screen ( seeing everything a market can throw at you) and bingo, holy grail = expierence + knowledge/limited by ego.

That ability can only be taught from the desk, imo. And I'm sure there's some confidentiality issues regarding such info.

Regards,
  • #15,372
  • May 15, 2010 7:23am May 15, 2010 7:23am
Quoting Zoran
Has anyone found some good material freely available on the internet regarding the law of vibration? I have found a Gann site dedicated to it but it's a subscription service, which I'm reluctant to follow without a reputable recommendation.

pm me your email add and i can send you some material of gann's law of vibration, sorry i cannot attach file for it's bigger than allowed. cheers.
Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiam
  • #15,373
  • May 15, 2010 8:06am May 15, 2010 8:06am
Quoting fti
Madman or the truth???

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f0oLJNfs_rM

... this is probably already seen it?Year 2006
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  • #15,374
  • May 15, 2010 8:13am May 15, 2010 8:13am
Quoting auxesis
Gro, sometimes I think there's a connection in your name.... Gro = Grow

Please expand on your thoughts
Gro = majority, gist ... sometimes totally out of
  • #15,375
  • May 15, 2010 9:01am May 15, 2010 9:01am
OK, I have just done some preliminary work on the Law of Vibration material. Seems to me that since Gann refused to elaborate on this subject (aside from the cryptic stuff he provided in the book), the material that I found was pretty much "best guess" material. The basic crux of what I found is that every pivot point is unique (duh) and the square of nine thing needs to be adjusted to fit the unique universe that the unique pivot point exist within. The Law of Vibration is all about understanding or tracking the grid, and has nothing to do with candles or candle formation. I guess the idea is to focus on understanding the grid, not the market. Since every pivot point "vibrates" differently from any other pivot point, your job is to adjust the square of nines to that unique vibration at that pivot point. I was very happy to learn that fibonacci levels are a part of the analysis with the 618 being the key, with every pivot offering a unique set of 618's (again duh). I still have not figured out the stuff on angles (aside from my own thinking that the market does not suffer a move greater than 45 degrees for very long, I am not sure how this plays out).

Therefore, the basic idea is to analyze each pivot level, which is another way of saying that every S/R is important, which means that we must analyze every S/R as possibly being part of the current move (vibration/universe), or is it the beginning of another pivot point/universe/vibration? And isn't that what we are doing, anyway?
  • #15,376
  • May 15, 2010 9:09am May 15, 2010 9:09am
Quoting auxesis
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...1&postcount=75




Mark,

I always thought that pertained to the ability of the Market Maker to engineer PA from the tripping of orders,(think who actually controls the candle). All of the talk(specially on some of the other order flow threads) all fails because you can't see their books and how it relates to their control of PA....
Aux, you memorized the whole thread ? haha. The key is in there, the structure. But like you said, when the structure is being discussed elsewhere, another fallacy developed much like the TA fallacy, but now on order flow. I para phrase fti on the definition of Technical Analysis, Technical = charts, Analysis = thinking. Where does the basis of thinking come from ? Many of TAF students here think TA is fallacy then start dumping their indicators and start trading naked charts. Ok, naked charts, if thinking is still wrong, there is no difference to blindly following a bunch of indicators. It has also been mentioned here that if you asked at any given time what the position of TAF followers are, it can be grossly contrary. That should not be the case if the thinking is based on proper foundation.
  • #15,377
  • May 15, 2010 9:34am May 15, 2010 9:34am
Quoting auxesis
Gro, sometimes I think there's a connection in your name.... Gro = Grow

Please expand on your thoughts
Hi auxesis
perhaps a better translation:
"More and more distant cycle and have greater knowledge and ability to re-fusion Whole Act (return to harmony section) ... Source of wisdom, which sends forward cycles, always trying to gain new strength." PS "The growth you had in your presence and led to the existence of cause and effect = create a better cause."
  • #15,378
  • May 15, 2010 9:35am May 15, 2010 9:35am
Quoting aiyahmarklah
Aux, you memorized the whole thread ? haha. The key is in there, the structure. But like you said, when the structure is being discussed elsewhere, another fallacy developed much like the TA fallacy, but now on order flow. I para phrase fti on the definition of Technical Analysis, Technical = charts, Analysis = thinking. Where does the basis of thinking come from ? Many of TAF students here think TA is fallacy then start dumping their indicators and start trading naked charts. Ok, naked charts, if thinking is still wrong, there is no difference...
Perhaps the following is a blinding flash of the obvious. As Gann stated, if candles and indicators are based on the previous vibration from the last pivot point, then they will be completely wrong if you are into a new vibration or pivot point. So, letting TA or "chart thinking" govern your trading is the fallacy, because the true nature of trading is being one with the grid, or the current vibration. That means that your focus is on knowing the grid, and trading that grid until you have signs that a new pivot point/universe is in effect. You can do TA within the current grid or spiral, but you must always be on the alert for a change to a new sprial, which requires a new analysis of the new grid. Any thoughts, or am I just being stupid?

Edit: I hope fti will slap this down if it is wrong.
  • #15,379
  • May 15, 2010 9:44am May 15, 2010 9:44am
Quoting GEfx
OK, I have just done some preliminary work on the Law of Vibration material. Seems to me that since Gann refused to elaborate on this subject (aside from the cryptic stuff he provided in the book), the material that I found was pretty much "best guess" material. The basic crux of what I found is that every pivot point is unique (duh) and the square of nine thing needs to be adjusted to fit the unique universe that the unique pivot point exist within. The Law of Vibration is all about understanding or tracking the grid, and has nothing to do with...
Hi GEfx
Might explain why I wrote "Dimension for me" (but "line is not wall").
(pictures are old 4h,15min.,5min.)

Regards
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  • #15,380
  • May 15, 2010 10:55am May 15, 2010 10:55am
Quoting GEfx
OK, I have just done some preliminary work on the Law of Vibration material. Seems to me that since Gann refused to elaborate on this subject (aside from the cryptic stuff he provided in the book), the material that I found was pretty much "best guess" material. The basic crux of what I found is that every pivot point is unique (duh) and the square of nine thing needs to be adjusted to fit the unique universe that the unique pivot point exist within. The Law of Vibration is all about understanding or tracking the grid, and has nothing to do with...
Insights from some old study, Vibrations possibly may not originate necessarily from a pivot point, we just see price action react(form a pivot) when it reaches the vibration intersect point (think waves going out and when they hit PA you see a reaction, but the waves originate from a different place).

So the math is not figured from a specific reversal point (think sq9 or basically square root divisions), the key lies in the relationship of the pivots to each other and finding the math that unites, here is the wave frequency which should hold future movement, until acted upon by a different vibration.

fwiw,
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