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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #15,381
  • May 15, 2010 8:59am May 15, 2010 8:59am
Quoting Gro
Hi GEfx
Might explain why I wrote "Dimension for me" (but "line is not wall").
(pictures are old 4h,15min.,5min.)

Regards
I am sorry Gro, if I am repeating what you have already posted. Clearly, I have not been reading the thread that closely. Just think of my posts are trying to catch up with the rest of you -- LOL.
  • #15,382
  • May 15, 2010 9:01am May 15, 2010 9:01am
Quoting aiyahmarklah
Aux, you memorized the whole thread ? haha. The key is in there, the structure. But like you said, when the structure is being discussed elsewhere, another fallacy developed much like the TA fallacy, but now on order flow. I para phrase fti on the definition of Technical Analysis, Technical = charts, Analysis = thinking. Where does the basis of thinking come from ? Many of TAF students here think TA is fallacy then start dumping their indicators and start trading naked charts. Ok, naked charts, if thinking is still wrong, there is no difference...
To me, TA isn't the fallacy, it's the fact that we base the trade decision on the assumption that TA has in itself the ability to predict the future. That statement is a two edged sword. As each pattern, can fail or complete and both should read volumes. In fact TA has the ability to set itself up in appearance to deceive.

So, yes I agree, whither it be pattern, MA cross, indicator.... we have to accept the possibility that the signal is in err. How we position ourselves with that knowledge is what seperates
  • #15,383
  • May 15, 2010 9:09am May 15, 2010 9:09am
Quoting auxesis
Insights from some old study, Vibrations possibly may not originate necessarily from a pivot point, we just see price action react(form a pivot) when it reaches the vibration intersect point (think waves going out and when they hit PA you see a reaction, but the waves originate from a different place).

So the math is not figured from a specific reversal point (think sq9 or basically square root divisions), the key lies in the relationship of the pivots to each other and finding the math that unites, here is the wave frequency which should...
Thanks auxesis, as you can tell, I am trying to catch up with the rest of you on this topic. I've always thought of trend lines as being math that defines a price movement (a trend line is basically an graphic representation of an equation). But, the sq9 thing needs tweeking at every pivot point, so I am not sure where to go with this...
  • #15,384
  • Edited 9:37am May 15, 2010 9:11am | Edited 9:37am
Quoting GEfx
Thanks auxesis, as you can tell, I am trying to catch up with the rest of you on this topic. I've always thought of trend lines as being math that defines a price movement (a trend line is basically an graphic representation of an equation). But, the sq9 thing needs tweeking at every pivot point, so I am not sure where to go with this...
GE, the math can get overwhelming, I have spread sheets that I use to run showing sq9 levels from various points. You can have several vibrations going at the same time. And then there's other square functions, I remember a pic Fti posted of a picture his mentor had given him which had a square of 4 grid going, If I recall. Each instrument will have it's own math. Kinda get the picture of how deep the rabbit hole can go?

I tend to lean to the channel & pitchfork "i.e. 50% angled channel" and Arc to define movement combined with retracement/consolidation patterns.
  • #15,385
  • May 15, 2010 9:41am May 15, 2010 9:41am
Quoting auxesis
GE, the math can get overwhelming, I have spread sheets that I use to run showing sq9 levels from various points. You can have several vibrations going at the same time. And then there's other square functions, I remember a pic Fti posted of a picture his mentor had given him which had a square of 4 grid going, If I recall. Each instrument will have it's own math. Kinda get the picture of how deep the rabbit hole can go?

I tend to lean to the channel & pitchfork "i.e. 50% angled channel" and Arc to define movement combined with retracement/consolidation...
Yep, I understand what you are doing, I think. I would have to really think about adding this to my trading, as I am a KISS kind of trader. However, it requires some additional thinking and research. I will probably follow the discussion here and see how things progress. This is one of those times where it would greatly benefit everyone if we could just go to a coffee shop and sit down with fti to discuss in more detail.
  • #15,386
  • Edited 11:25am May 15, 2010 10:08am | Edited 11:25am
Quoting GEfx
Yep, I understand what you are doing, I think. I would have to really think about adding this to my trading, as I am a KISS kind of trader. However, it requires some additional thinking and research. I will probably follow the discussion here and see how things progress. This is one of those times where it would greatly benefit everyone if we could just go to a coffee shop and sit down with fti to discuss in more detail.
GE,

You use Fibs, The Gannist uses square root levels in much the same fashion. However the square root math needs to be specific for the instrument, one of the problems to address with curriencies is what to do with the decimal. It can be as advanced or basic as you wish.

Here's a basic Gold and Silver chart with natural squares, 1,4,9,16,25,36.... note silver has the decimal shifted one left. I look to buy and sell around these areas.

to add, Gann's Square of 9 chart is basically a square root calculator, If you take a number and find it's square root. Adding/subtracting 1 and then re-squaring = 180 degrees of movement. 2=360 degrees .5=90 degrees. The Sq9 works on price as well as time.

It's much easier to just flow with price, as price will show you where it wants to react, instead of having to do the math, if that makes sense.

fwiw
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  • #15,387
  • May 15, 2010 10:57am May 15, 2010 10:57am
Has fti ever talked about using square of 9 and some of these other things or is this just side stuff by other members? This stuff would seem quite hard to do in your head and might be "rigid" if I can take anything from his other posts.
  • #15,388
  • Edited 11:20am May 15, 2010 11:07am | Edited 11:20am
Quoting Deusomega
Has fti ever talked about using square of 9 and some of these other things or is this just side stuff by other members? This stuff would seem quite hard to do in your head and might be "rigid" if I can take anything from his other posts.
Deusomega

Hahah, somehow everyone got off on Tunnel and then tried to find the hidden golden egg of Gann's meanings. Inferring vibration (please translate?) was the key. While there's some worthy discussion in such, reliance on it isn't really a part of the thread.

The indicators or maths we use isn't really the problem it's how our brain uses that info and clouds our perspectives.

I guess no one will ever really know the truth, and if they did, how would you convince anyone about Gann's methodology? I believe FTI, has implied that the majority of Gann's later work was a smokescreen to steer people away from his true trading techniques and or those who later inherited or bought the rights to his notes commercialized them for sale. If the report of his daily trade frequency is correct, them most of the astro is non-effective as planetary aspects and such are on a daily or longer basis. In fact most if not all of his later stuff now being published and sold is all on longer timeframes and not intra day. Not to take away that Gann was a great mathematician, it just may be that he was a great natural day trader


fwiw,
  • #15,389
  • May 15, 2010 11:08am May 15, 2010 11:08am
Quoting auxesis
It's much easier to just flow with price, as price will show you where it wants to react, instead of having to do the math, if that makes sense.

fwiw
  • #15,390
  • May 15, 2010 11:28am May 15, 2010 11:28am
Quoting auxesis
Deusomega

Hahah, somehow everyone got off on Tunnel and then tried to find the hidden golden egg of Gann's meanings....
Regarding Gann's methodology. Has FTI ever told us HOW he worked it out? He doesn't need to tell us what is it, but at least how he gathered the knowledge. I am sure it did not came to him from a dream.

However, I might have offended him by asking so directly... Please accept my apologies, for my curiosity have overwhelmed my politeness.
Life is a school for the soul
  • #15,391
  • May 15, 2010 11:28am May 15, 2010 11:28am
Because of the trouble I had coping and pasting by the time I had this link posted we were on another page.

This may be of interest to some, I think it gives us something to think about regarding inflation.

check out the meltup.

http://www.youtube.com/user/goldtoth.../0/eb1n1xo0qdw
  • #15,392
  • May 15, 2010 11:32am May 15, 2010 11:32am
Quoting lilpip
Because of the trouble I had coping and pasting by the time I had this link posted we were on another page.

This may be of interest to some, I think it gives us something to think about regarding inflation.

check out the meltup.

http://www.youtube.com/user/goldtoth.../0/eb1n1xo0qdw
Slightly off topic.. the gold vending machine in Germany lol. "many of germans like to hold their assets in gold after losing everything in the first two world wars."

Moral of the story: Don't listen to guys with really funky mustaches!
  • #15,393
  • May 15, 2010 11:46am May 15, 2010 11:46am
Quoting esuffw
Regarding Gann's methodology. Has FTI ever told us HOW he worked it out? He doesn't need to tell us what is it, but at least how he gathered the knowledge. I am sure it did not came to him from a dream.

However, I might have offended him by asking so directly... Please accept my apologies, for my curiosity have overwhelmed my politeness.
Can't speak for Fti, but most of this stuff is privately taught from mentor to student, it would be a terrible breach of trust to divulge such info. Somewhere back, early in the thread, Fti is talking to another poster about grids, and how they get in the way.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=467

This is some of the gann stuff, Fti basically said he cleared them off his chart.

So, draw your own conclusions.
  • #15,394
  • Edited 12:07pm May 15, 2010 11:50am | Edited 12:07pm
Quoting Deusomega
Slightly off topic.. the gold vending machine in Germany lol. "many of germans like to hold their assets in gold after losing everything in the first two world wars."

Moral of the story: Don't listen to guys with really funky mustaches!
makes sense to me, Im with them buying during the dips (along with silver) although I did sell in dec. that quarterly highs but back in at the area of where India but there tons.

looking at the e/u weekly chart, have to say Im with the trend and bias is down along with areas of extra interest.
3240
2709
2178
  • #15,395
  • May 15, 2010 12:09pm May 15, 2010 12:09pm
Quoting lilpip
makes sense to me, Im with them buying during the dips (along with silver) although I did sell in dec. that quarterly highs but back in at the area of where India but there tons.

looking at the e/u weekly chart, have to say Im with the trend and bias is down along with areas of extra interest.
3240
2709
2178
Oh I agree was just referring to the comment about losing alot of their stuff after two world wars. Joke about not listening to Hitler(funny mustache man)
  • #15,396
  • May 15, 2010 1:05pm May 15, 2010 1:05pm
Also on topic of gold @ Baifu

Gold commercial shorts recently hit an all time high on CTFC.

As per Zerohedge website(don't know if I can put link)

"If even with this massive onslaught to keep gold low by the LBMA, the precious metal managed to nearly hit $1,250 today, what will happen to gold when the 450k commercial positions are forced to cover?"
  • #15,397
  • Edited 1:32pm May 15, 2010 1:20pm | Edited 1:32pm
Quoting auxesis
Deusomega

Hahah, somehow everyone got off on Tunnel and then tried to find the hidden golden egg of Gann's meanings....
Hi auxesis

... yes, Gann is a story of great love.
... and I say: "Love your scout, until the time (pain threshold) you divide" or "love of Life and its cycles" (sequences) ... sequences give peace, repair option, possibility of turn ... etc.

regards

PS this is interesting, you remember?
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  • #15,398
  • May 15, 2010 5:00pm May 15, 2010 5:00pm
Regarding the Gann conversation. What is the interpretation of:

"As above so below"?
"The wheel within the wheel" - "spiral within spiral"?

This is what I am seeking.
  • #15,399
  • May 15, 2010 5:05pm May 15, 2010 5:05pm
I guess you are asking Gro or Aux but FTI already told you his interpretation:

Hi zoran,
"As above so Below" basically is a quote which the free masons used.
In reality, it was teaching from Jesus in the bible about the state in heaven and on earth. Read the testaments for details, I think you can find it in the scriptures , where Christ was asked about the kingdom of heaven. Christ was a wise son. If you cannot find it , ask, and I shall help you locate it.( and it shall be opened )
In the trading context, it is simply an expression that what exist in the Long Charts (daily, weekly, monthly) is much replicated in the Short Charts ( 5 min, hourly ).

I though we covered trading MO already.
The daily chart analysis is to set the stage for the strategies to be used , having the daily trend as the backdrop,( safety net , as Northpro put it).
In case, things got very hairy , we would have to depend on, that the "law of motion" doesn't fail us. Of course, if Murphy insist that his Law should prevail, then I guess, we're done, unless, we have enough muscle to overcome murphy by using the might of size.
I cannot see the rigidity in daily analysis. As you may notice by now that the dance is executed on the short charts, so the daily analysis task is done , once it sets up the trade backdrop for the day.
  • #15,400
  • May 15, 2010 5:16pm May 15, 2010 5:16pm
Deusomega, "as above so below" in the trading sense (as you describe) is what I initially thought but I still have my doubts. I have a feeling it goes deeper than that but it's difficult to say when confirmation is lacking.
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