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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #63,881
  • May 15, 2010 6:58am May 15, 2010 6:58am
Hi Daneel
I agree that 99 out of 100 people should start with demo and be constantly profitable for 3 months on the daily bars ect, for me personally have 4 years experience with stocks and 1 year with PA futures and 6 months with PA forex, I have had mild success, but think this thread will help me go the next level, I will join james16 soon, when I spend more time getting through this thread and through the James16 guest area. I have trouble getting motivated trading demo, for me and maybe some others, they could use micro acc. where 1 pip is .01 cent or .10 cent (AUD) as a demo but still a very small acc. with real money. This is only for people who have trouble doing the demo thing, I am sure most personality's, are fine with demo but for some of us with profitable trading background and some pre-requisite knowledge, could use a small acc. to make it more real then go to larger amounts when consistantly profitable. I have kept my head above water since coming into Forex by trading daily pinbars and inside bar breaks with the trend at S/R with some M/M (I need to improve money Management). I need to more patient and disciplined and I believe I can become a 5%er
Mark
P.S my 1st FF Post
  • #63,882
  • May 15, 2010 10:13am May 15, 2010 10:13am
Quoting Daneel

I'm also going to disagree with Dan on scaling down bet size following a loss.
so if you take a 2% loss, your next trade will be larger than 2%?

maintaining a percentage risk IS scaling down, that's what I mean.

If you don't re-calculate what 2% is on your account after you lose, you are going to get wiped out eventually.
Many choose unhappiness over uncertainty.
  • #63,883
  • May 15, 2010 10:21am May 15, 2010 10:21am
Quoting Dan Gilbert
Just maintain your risk, and scale down everytime your account takes a hit, it is virtually imossible to blow an account this way.
I also agree with Dan! - But remember to cut your losses and let the winners run!

Many people have difficulties with closing a half position and move the SL to BE, this way you already have won your trade! But you still have a chance to earn more with letting the rest of the position run..

I'm currently working my way through the whole thread, a couple of days ago I read the following post and it has changed my view on the exiting part of trading:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...postcount=3504

especially this:
Quote
Some people take these signals and close on the FIRST DAY because they have made a killing. Just think for a second - You are trading off a daily bar. You've had just ONE go in your favour. Try this. Look at a massive trend that you would like to have caught.

Hope it can help somebody, it sure has helped me dealing with the impatience waiting to close a position trading on the daily tf...
  • #63,884
  • May 15, 2010 10:42am May 15, 2010 10:42am
Quoting Dan Gilbert
so if you take a 2% loss, your next trade will be larger than 2%?

maintaining a percentage risk IS scaling down, that's what I mean.

If you don't re-calculate what 2% is on your account after you lose, you are going to get wiped out eventually.
Ah, I thought you meant lowering the percentage. What I'd probably do is re-set the value per pip each month (or each week if I was making a lot of trades), but if I wouldn't argue with you if you amend it on each trade individually.
  • #63,885
  • Edited 11:58am May 15, 2010 11:12am | Edited 11:58am
Quoting steven_leo
spotting this one guys...............wake up to see this one close into a pinbar....
*break consolidation......retrace back to PPZ and make a pinbar......waiting to break the pinbar on monday guys...?comment please....

the first trouble area at....0.9086......

*edit:why the picture isn't come out ya guys...?
Hi Steven,
Thanks for the heads up
I agree that the location is quite good. The weekly also shows similar bearish PA in the BEOB that formed and J16 play would dictate entry on the break level of somewhere 0.9079. I think shorting it based on the daily PB would be reasonable and if price manage to break the weekly BEOB, perhaps more position can be added........just my thoughts.
Edit: Oops! Must have been very sleepy when I posted this, that wasn't a BEOB, just a bearish bar............but still the concept may work.

CY
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  • #63,886
  • May 15, 2010 11:24am May 15, 2010 11:24am
[quote=Daneel;3726520
The reason I'm doing it this way, is I feel that I will trade differently with a demo account that I would with real money (most likely, I'll take more risky set-ups), so I don't think I'll learn nearly as much about my own psychology and money management as I would with a live account. I also don't think I'll get an accurate picture of how effective my trading strategy is.
[/quote]

Just my thoughts,

Here is where I have seen this said 1000 times but I don't believe it yet. What i mean is if you can't trade and beat a demo account, you can't with real money(while it may make someone more picky this may just be being reluctant and they don't have an actual winning method. Being picky is not a method). The real thing is the ego. If you can beat your ego to trade on a demo to prove yourself profitable, and then move up slowly you are losing out on a lot. You are going to gain so many things that are so helpful down the line by doing it this way(sort of the same way we say start on the higher timeframes). When we talk about ego I don't mean just yours, I mean all of our egos. I wish when I was learning I demoed but it just wasn't something anyone did like now. I really think by putting aside our egos and starting on demo we put ourselves in a better position in the long run. Again this is just from my experience and what my inbox tells me.

As for position sizing, to me that is as simple as it gets. %R. Most effective way to take advantage of compounding and bet sizing when winning and losing. Of course there are a million MM methods out there but some of the people I respect the most with knowledge on that stuff ended back at %R(cough merlin, miss that man!)

Hope everyone is having a great weekend
Mike
  • #63,887
  • May 15, 2010 11:56am May 15, 2010 11:56am
Quoting ertorque
Hi Steven,
Thanks for the heads up
I agree that the location is quite good. The weekly also shows similar bearish PA in the BEOB that formed and J16 play would dictate entry on the break level of somewhere 0.9079. I think shorting it based on the daily PB would be reasonable and if price manage to break the weekly BEOB, perhaps more position can be added........just my thoughts.

CY
yup..let see what monday lookslike......
  • #63,888
  • May 15, 2010 1:14pm May 15, 2010 1:14pm
I just finished market wizards and a common theme I noticed was to reduce position sizes by 1/2 after a losing streak. One other guy halved his position sizes after a winning streak as well as his biggest losses almost always came after a string of winners.

On a completely unrelated note - I've been searching (Google and this thread) for the J16manager EA - can anyone point me in the right direction?
Anything can happen.
  • #63,889
  • May 15, 2010 1:22pm May 15, 2010 1:22pm
Quoting ddinnov
I just finished market wizards and a common theme I noticed was to reduce position sizes by 1/2 after a losing streak. One other guy halved his position sizes after a winning streak as well as his biggest losses almost always came after a string of winners.

On a completely unrelated note - I've been searching (Google and this thread) for the J16manager EA - can anyone point me in the right direction?

go in attachments and hide images
I do not know if it works (not tested)
but 'you let me know
  • #63,890
  • May 15, 2010 1:38pm May 15, 2010 1:38pm
Quoting ddinnov
I just finished market wizards and a common theme I noticed was to reduce position sizes by 1/2 after a losing streak. One other guy halved his position sizes after a winning streak as well as his biggest losses almost always came after a string of winners.

On a completely unrelated note - I've been searching (Google and this thread) for the J16manager EA - can anyone point me in the right direction?
Here you go: http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=47845
  • #63,891
  • May 15, 2010 1:45pm May 15, 2010 1:45pm
Thanks guys!
Anything can happen.
  • #63,892
  • May 15, 2010 7:21pm May 15, 2010 7:21pm
I trade both 4hr and daily pins with great confidence. Just take your time, wait for the right set up to develop and trade with the overall trend. You'll win about 70% of the time and even more often if you take 30-40 pips and close out part (or all) of your position. There will ALWAYS BE MORE PINS. Just gotta wait for them. Have a look at the daily nzd/czd from friday (5/12/10). There is one right there just waiting for price action traders to short it.
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  • #63,893
  • May 15, 2010 7:31pm May 15, 2010 7:31pm
Quoting mbqb11
Just my thoughts,

Here is where I have seen this said 1000 times but I don't believe it yet. What i mean is if you can't trade and beat a demo account, you can't with real money(while it may make someone more picky this may just be being reluctant and they don't have an actual winning method. Being picky is not a method). The real thing is the ego. If you can beat your ego to trade on a demo to prove yourself profitable, and then move up slowly you are losing out on a lot. You are going to gain so many things that are so helpful down the line...
I like some of the line of thinking when you don't use a demo acount like a live account . . . you know . . because its just a demo account, not real . . like:

Your trading on demo and you say, "Oh wow . . my trade is losing but on a real account I would exit here . . but this is a demo account, I'll let it go . . . it'll come back".
Or " I missed the signal or trigger, I'll just enter here now. On a real account I wouldn't miss the signal."

Etc.
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #63,894
  • May 15, 2010 7:34pm May 15, 2010 7:34pm
Quoting ghous
I have been itching to share a recent successful experiment with ya'll. The idea was to present it once the result was really certain but like I did with the IPB I'll mention it anyway to poke at a few pondering heads.

This one's actually reminiscent of a damn good trading system which I am working on (extensive back testing and forward testing)

50 EMA
Bollinger Bands.

Price action with the trend preferably at a confluence of the 50 EMA with one of the lines of BB. Moderate trends give lot's of such entries.

.....


The core...
Hello!
Just recently, this thread began to draw lots of attention from me, as I began to "finally" use daily charts as an important part in my trading. Also, thanks to a conversation with a good friend of mine, I realized lots of interesting insights that this group applies (and which I previously ignore because I never dedicate, before, enough time to this thread).

Today, I wanna ask about this specific set of rules. In several backtests, I was surprised to find very few patterns (in months!!) that followed Ghous's rules, until I realized that he uses a broker GMT-2 (mine is IBFX, GMT). My question is: as he is one of the experienced guys with James16's system, is it a rule in J16 to use GMT+-2? I ask that because it surprises me the very few Pin Bars that I found that followed not only these specific rules, but also other rules from another systems based in PinBars.

If that the answer is affirmative, I ask: what's wrong with GMT? I thought that we should all be in a GMT broker as it is the start and ending of a London day, thus, in my logic, lots of traders should be looking at 4H and 1D with GMT closes.
This is one of the charts he posted some days ago, with GMT-2: http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...5&d=1273090356 (post # 62796)

Thanks!
  • #63,895
  • Edited 8:17pm May 15, 2010 8:06pm | Edited 8:17pm
Quoting jedlanca
Hello!
Just recently, this thread began to draw lots of attention from me, as I began to "finally" use daily charts as an important part in my trading. Also, thanks to a conversation with a good friend of mine, I realized lots of interesting insights that this group applies (and which I previously ignore because I never dedicate, before, enough time to this thread).

Today, I wanna ask about this specific set of rules. In several backtests, I was surprised to find very few patterns (in months!!) that followed Ghous's rules, until I realized...
Many brokers will have different closing time due to the GMT times they use. All this shows is Price being chopped up differently. What they do have in common is where Price act as Support and/or Resistance. A very important factor when trading the James16 methology.

Ghous was showing an approach he is working on utilising some of the PA formations with other key locational requirements.

Using a different broker will give signals where others will not and vise versa. They do tend to equal out in the long run.

I think I came close to answering your question?
Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
  • #63,896
  • May 15, 2010 8:30pm May 15, 2010 8:30pm
Quoting jarroo
I like some of the line of thinking when you don't use a demo acount like a live account . . . you know . . because its just a demo account, not real . . like:

Your trading on demo and you say, "Oh wow . . my trade is losing but on a real account I would exit here . . but this is a demo account, I'll let it go . . . it'll come back".
Or " I missed the signal or trigger, I'll just enter here now. On a real account I wouldn't miss the signal."

Etc.

I can second that, I blew my first 3 demo accounts two years ago, until I learned to demo as if I was using real money, now I have to trade my live account as I demoed. That last part is the hardest.
  • #63,897
  • May 15, 2010 9:09pm May 15, 2010 9:09pm
Quoting jarroo
Many brokers will have different closing time due to the GMT times they use. All this shows is Price being chopped up differently. What they do have in common is where Price act as Support and/or Resistance. A very important factor when trading the James16 methology.

Ghous was showing an approach he is working on utilising some of the PA formations with other key locational requirements.

Using a different broker will give signals where others will not and vise versa. They do tend to equal out in the long run.

I think I came close to...
Thanks! Indeed, it answers my question, but I have a new one

Based on the fact that we all have different GMT times, I suppose that, in this thread, we might not be looking only for PinBars... but pairs of candlesticks that shows strong rejections, with momentum, from the key location requirements that are mentioned through all the posts. Thus, when some people might be looking at PinBars, one or two hours later (or before!) other people should be looking at engulfings, morning/evening stars at those same key locations.

If I what I said above makes sense, I suppose that the rules for PinBars can be also applied for those candlesticks patterns mentioned above, right? In case not, what is so special in PinBars that the other patterns do not have? They all show rejection, with momentum... only the only difference that I notice is that PinBars show that in the same "session", while the others need, at least, a couple of candlesticks.

Thanks again!!
  • #63,898
  • May 15, 2010 10:02pm May 15, 2010 10:02pm
Quoting jedlanca
Thanks! Indeed, it answers my question, but I have a new one

Based on the fact that we all have different GMT times, I suppose that, in this thread, we might not be looking only for PinBars... but pairs of candlesticks that shows strong rejections, with momentum, from the key location requirements that are mentioned through all the posts. Thus, when some people might be looking at PinBars, one or two hours later (or before!) other people should be looking at engulfings, morning/evening stars at those same key locations.

If I what I said above...

I don't think any of us have different GMT times.

GMT is GMT and not a variable, we may have different broker times but certainly not GMT.
  • #63,899
  • May 15, 2010 10:34pm May 15, 2010 10:34pm
Just getting my charts ready for next week and I came across this PB which was successful. I know it is easy to find them after the fact but, I am trying to fix in my mind the image of at least an "A" class setup.

Ignore the trend line, it is just there for next week.

We have been in a clear uptrend as we can see from the daily chart, although I am not so sure as to how we should be looking at the highs and lows on H4 or if indeed, when looking at such a PB on H4 if we should be looking at the peak and valleys of the D1 or strictly keeping to the H4.

Anyway, on H4 we confluence of two 61.8 fibos, the PB in question was rejected by the 365 EMA and both the open and close of the bar is below the 83.90 which is also a weekly PPZ area.

Can we consider this an A PB?

Thanks in advance.
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  • #63,900
  • May 15, 2010 10:43pm May 15, 2010 10:43pm
Quoting Pinbar
I don't think any of us have different GMT times.

GMT is GMT and not a variable, we may have different broker times but certainly not GMT.
Sorry, I meant "different broker times".

Thanks!
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