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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #2,781
  • May 14, 2010 8:51am May 14, 2010 8:51am
Quoting shahab8b
I've never tried that on a cross but I think it should work well.

I'm sharing my view on this particular trade if you don't mind.
1-Looking at daily chart you have to opt for a very wide SL
2-I dont have RSI(14)>=70 on the levels you showed. I got my sell signal after that on that short term rally.

Overall, the sell signal (on my chart) is a very solid entry as it is located on weekly pivot so the confidence is high.Remember not to jump in too soon and locate your SL, if the price goes higher but SL level is not hit it's OK to add to your...

I really appreciate your comments on this trade. That is why I will be posting all my trades on this setup; to get some feedback and learn a bit more.

My comments on your comments:

1. I actually picked a smaller SL. I don't know if I was taking too many risk of being stopped out with it but I chose 68 pips SL @ 0.8651. This was based on the resistance at that level on a daily chart (see attached image)

2. You are right. I took that trade at RSI = 68.9. I guess I was eager to try this strategy that I didn't wait for RSI > 70. The right entry point should have been the one you identified.



Once again, thank you for your feedback.
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  • #2,782
  • May 14, 2010 9:32am May 14, 2010 9:32am
I'm posting this for educational purposes:
An example of how to use a hidden diveregence to take a high probability trade with a good RRR.

G/U: Trades have been already closed with +40 ,+55 pips
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  • #2,783
  • May 14, 2010 9:35am May 14, 2010 9:35am
Hi Shahab8
Selling rallies in AUDJPY is going to pay off big one of these days:
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010...ie-yen-unwind/
  • #2,784
  • May 14, 2010 9:37am May 14, 2010 9:37am
Gold: Shorting the beast.
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  • #2,785
  • May 14, 2010 9:38am May 14, 2010 9:38am
Quoting elitejets
Hi Shahab8
Selling rallies in AUDJPY is going to pay off big one of these days:
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010...ie-yen-unwind/

Hi Elite, hope all is well. That's so true, the same here.
  • #2,786
  • May 14, 2010 10:02am May 14, 2010 10:02am
Quoting shahab8b
Short Cad/J has been taken at 90.90 sl=92.50, targeting 88- 82

Closed half at 89 (+190 pips) , half SL>B/E
  • #2,787
  • May 14, 2010 10:10am May 14, 2010 10:10am
Quoting shahab8b
Closed half at 89 (+190 pips) , half SL>B/E
Hope you're doing well with your /jpy shorts. Should go further. Time period 1HR -6 Weeks.
  • #2,788
  • May 14, 2010 10:13am May 14, 2010 10:13am
Quoting Patience
E/U looks oversold but I've always thought that there was a possibility we could see 1.23 this year just based purely on the high being 1.4483 and the average yearly range for the last 10 years being 2161 pips.
Ding, ding, ding! Not even two months. Happened a lot flippin faster than I thought .....

Great trading Shahab!
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #2,789
  • Edited 10:45am May 14, 2010 10:31am | Edited 10:45am
Nice call on Gold!
I took silver myself and got stopped out and endured some pain before it worked. A good lesson in perseverance for me.

Here is my silver chart from Wednesday and reasons for shorting. Now that we have a daily reversal candle I think it is a good sell on rallies:

1. Potential double top
2. That is where the swing equals the swing from the end of Jan to March (AB=CD)
3. That is the 1.618 fib extension of the swing from end of Jan to March
4. Top of the channel resistance (3rd touch)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,790
  • Edited 1:08pm May 14, 2010 12:51pm | Edited 1:08pm
May 14 (Bloomberg) -- The euro fell to its lowest level since the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. on concern that the 16-nation currency may be headed for disintegration.
The shared currency fell through $1.24 for the first time since November 2008 as German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that Europe is in a “very, very serious situation.” El Pais reported that France threatened to leave the euro during talks that led to this week’s almost-$1 trillion bailout.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...ODG9tSos&pos=2


1604 GMT [Dow Jones] Investors are looking past the Greek bailout and focusing on more concerning issues. "The sharks are coming for the euro," the Pragmatic Capitalist says. "They see a wounded animal and the market is beginning to realize that there is no good long-term fix besides a substantially weaker and/or potentially dead euro." The uncertainty that could ensue in the near-term is "too great for me to fathom," blog says. "The EU has gone 'all-in' with a very poor hand. The market will eventually call their bluff and when it does it will not be pretty."
  • #2,791
  • May 14, 2010 1:25pm May 14, 2010 1:25pm
Shabab,

much as i think that the euro was a stupid enactment of egos, i seriously doubt it will be allowed to die. there is just too much at stake for that to happen.

Quoting shahab8b
May 14 (Bloomberg) -- The euro fell to its lowest level since the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. on concern that the 16-nation currency may be headed for disintegration....
  • #2,792
  • May 14, 2010 2:10pm May 14, 2010 2:10pm
Hi Shahab8b,

I have been following your thread for a while and I must say that it is very successful.

I have a question about the indicator Level Stop Reverse v2. I searched the thread to find explanation for it however without success. Could you give a little info on that indicator? Is it based on ATR, or does it have anything to do with daily pivot?

Thanks for your replies..
  • #2,793
  • May 14, 2010 2:28pm May 14, 2010 2:28pm
Quoting coolshades
Shabab,

much as i think that the euro was a stupid enactment of egos, i seriously doubt it will be allowed to die. there is just too much at stake for that to happen.

That's not my statement as you see I cited DJ.However ,I'm very curious to see how this story will end.
  • #2,794
  • May 14, 2010 6:07pm May 14, 2010 6:07pm
Quoting Clouds
Hope you're doing well with your /jpy shorts. Should go further. Time period 1HR -6 Weeks.

Hi Clouds, I've been trying to trade in risk aversion set up, long USD and JPY against any other pair. However ,my best trades were short indicies futures.Regarding JPY, I dont like to short U/J in this condition ,I think this time we see different correlations, for instance, I've noticed indiceis and Gold have negative correlation which is different to what we saw in 08.
  • #2,795
  • May 14, 2010 6:08pm May 14, 2010 6:08pm
Quoting Patience
Ding, ding, ding! Not even two months. Happened a lot flippin faster than I thought .....

Great trading Shahab!

Hi Patience, you were right as usual. Did you trade short E/U this week?
  • #2,796
  • May 14, 2010 7:01pm May 14, 2010 7:01pm
G/J

Note that Set Up Conditions are suitable for trades based on RSI extreme on hr chart.
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  • #2,797
  • May 15, 2010 12:56am May 15, 2010 12:56am
Wanna share this with ya!

http://www.businessinsider.com/chart...markets-2010-5
  • #2,798
  • May 15, 2010 5:11am May 15, 2010 5:11am
Investors increased their bets against the euro to a new record level, according to data released Friday, as the common currency weakens sharply in response to market concerns about the longer-term implications of the EUR750 million euro zone rescue plan.

Net speculative bets--called shorts--against the euro increased to $18 billion in the week ended Tuesday, according to an analysis by Scotia Bank of the weekly Commitments of Traders report released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission late Friday afternoon.

The net short position against the British pound did not change significantly, said Camilla Sutton, currency strategist at Scotia Capital.

"The most dramatic change probably came in yen, which had a week-over-week $4 billion change," Sutton said, adding that the change roughly halved the net short position against the Japanese currency to $4.7 billion.

The data represent only a small slice of the foreign-exchange market and reflect positions taken by the most active speculative investors. The report does, however, give a sense of market sentiment toward the euro based on the direction and volume of bets.

Late Friday, the euro was at $1.2379, from $1.2531 late Friday, according to EBS via CQG.

It hit a low of $1.2358, its lowest level since October 2008, in earlier trading.


Net euro, sterling short bets hit fresh record - CFTC
http://www.reuters.com/article/hotSt...19379620100514
  • #2,799
  • May 15, 2010 5:19am May 15, 2010 5:19am
Quoting shahab8b
Hi Patience, you were right as usual. Did you trade short E/U this week?
G'day Shahab - I think I did this week - checked my accounts and have done approx. 8 short trades this month on E/U compared to over 300 long A/J trades. Ridiculous, I know. I like to make it hard for myself I call them ninja trades - in and out. Think I'll turn myself into an EA No sentiment reading last night but there was no mercy for those traders long on E/U, Cable and A/U.

USDX Weekly

It's a beautiful thing. Two points shy of the 78.6% fib. I know some traders don't consider or use this as a fib level and there are those that use the 76.4% fib but this fib is automatically included on Netdania so I just leave it there to see what reaction (if any) there is to this level. Now that we've done the average yearly range on E/U, any further down and we've overshot (compared to the last 10 years). I guess we can't rule out seeing 1.17xx area. Who knows with the mood the market is in. Even if we overshoot, I guess I'd expect it to return to around this area. E/U is the whipping boy this year. I'm very interested to see what happens from this point onwards for the rest of the year. I guess there are a lot of Americans planning to eat croissants on the Champs Elysees, a strong espresso in St Marks Square and pay a visit to the Queen at Buckingham Palace. Usual weekly report attached in full this week (I've checked it this time before posting).

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Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Market_Strategy_Weekly_14_May.pdf   725 KB | 433 downloads
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #2,800
  • May 15, 2010 6:50am May 15, 2010 6:50am
Quoting Patience
G'day Shahab - I think I did this week - checked my accounts and have done approx. 8 short trades this month on E/U compared to over 300 long A/J trades. Ridiculous, I know. I like to make it hard for myself I call them ninja trades - in and out. Think I'll turn myself into an EA No sentiment reading last night but there was no mercy for those traders long on E/U, Cable and A/U.

USDX Weekly

It's a beautiful thing. Two points shy of the 78.6% fib. I know some traders don't consider or use this as a fib level and there are...
Hi, thanks for the attachment. Is that your corporate subscription? Or would it be possible for individuals to receive it? I checked Lloyds CM website and couldn't find a link to it. Thanks.
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