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GBPJPY Daily Trend Method

  • #61
  • May 15, 2010 3:00am May 15, 2010 3:00am
Thanks Michael for your explanations,
but I think we are saying the same thing on your chart you enter the new sell order the 2010.05.13 15:00 at the open price of the bar 135.88 and on my chart I open the new trade the 2010.05.13 at 18:00 (GMT +1) with the same open price.
So all seems OK.

Thanks
Regards
  • #62
  • May 15, 2010 6:43am May 15, 2010 6:43am
Quoting yousky
Thanks Michael for your explanations,
but I think we are saying the same thing on your chart you enter the new sell order the 2010.05.13 15:00 at the open price of the bar 135.88 and on my chart I open the new trade the 2010.05.13 at 18:00 (GMT +1) with the same open price.
So all seems OK.

Thanks
Regards

Incorrect. I clearly state on my chart that you should have entered at the close of the 13:30 Bar. That bar represents 9:30 AM - 10:00 AM EST if that makes it any easier.

Let me know if I can do anything else to help you.

Michael
  • #63
  • May 15, 2010 9:07am May 15, 2010 9:07am
Arff I think I find my misunderstood :-(, I have to improve my english I think
I believed that the Buy/Sell signal should be on the 3 bars and not at ANY of these.
Before, I checked all settings for the 3 bars and if only one do not correspond to the expected settings, the signal was not valide.
But according to your rules, only one bar (on your chart 13h30, 14h, 14h30) corresponding to the settings validate the signal.
I think that now I understood exactly your rules

Many thanks Michael, I forward my tests.
Regards
  • #64
  • May 15, 2010 5:19pm May 15, 2010 5:19pm
Quoting yousky
Arff I think I find my misunderstood :-(, I have to improve my english I think
I believed that the Buy/Sell signal should be on the 3 bars and not at ANY of these.
Before, I checked all settings for the 3 bars and if only one do not correspond to the expected settings, the signal was not valide.
But according to your rules, only one bar (on your chart 13h30, 14h, 14h30) corresponding to the settings validate the signal.
I think that now I understood exactly your rules

Many thanks Michael, I forward my tests.
Regards
It's no problem. Let me know if you need anything else. I'll be posting all of my trades so you should be able to follow along.

Michael
  • #65
  • May 15, 2010 5:46pm May 15, 2010 5:46pm
EURNZD daily ADX at max ..what we do?
  • #66
  • May 15, 2010 6:30pm May 15, 2010 6:30pm
Quoting mistersimple
EURNZD daily ADX at max ..what we do?
You've posted in the wrong thread; this method is about the GBP/JPY.
  • #67
  • May 16, 2010 2:47am May 16, 2010 2:47am
Hi Michael,

Could you explain what the reasons you choose 3 bars that starts at 9:30am EST? Is it based on the New York open? If it is true, can we also use others market hours, for example London open at 7:00am GMT 0 (2:00am EST) for this wonderful method?

Many thanks for sharing this method.. may the green pips always be with you
  • #68
  • May 16, 2010 4:06pm May 16, 2010 4:06pm
Quoting a2xm
Hi Michael,

Could you explain what the reasons you choose 3 bars that starts at 9:30am EST? Is it based on the New York open? If it is true, can we also use others market hours, for example London open at 7:00am GMT 0 (2:00am EST) for this wonderful method?

Many thanks for sharing this method.. may the green pips always be with you

Yes the New York open had a lot to do with it. I have noticed that the markets usually find their direction between 9:30 am est (N.Y. Open) and 11:00 am est (London Close).

I would encourage you to test out the different sessions and see what you come up with. I can only test 1 variable at a time so that would be a HUGE help. The other times that I would like to test are 7:00 PM EST and 5:00 AM EST.

Michael
  • #69
  • May 16, 2010 4:07pm May 16, 2010 4:07pm
Quoting Dreamliner
You've posted in the wrong thread; this method is about the GBP/JPY.
Nice to have you here Dreamliner. I read through your thread about correlation trading and really enjoyed it. I hope it's still working for ya.

Michael
  • #70
  • May 16, 2010 5:13pm May 16, 2010 5:13pm
Quoting MichaelLee_8
Nice to have you here Dreamliner. I read through your thread about correlation trading and really enjoyed it. I hope it's still working for ya.

Michael
Thanks Michael, yes I still do correlation trading. It's got a lot of down points to it because of the scaling of the program, so I only do one a month or so.

Looking forward to seeing your plan in action here.
  • #71
  • May 16, 2010 5:39pm May 16, 2010 5:39pm
Quoting Dreamliner
Thanks Michael, yes I still do correlation trading. It's got a lot of down points to it because of the scaling of the program, so I only do one a month or so.

Looking forward to seeing your plan in action here.
Yeah, the scaling did cause quite a few problems. That's why I like to use the correlated pairs as a leading indicator.

Hopefully this method will come through for all of us!!

Michael
  • #72
  • May 16, 2010 5:50pm May 16, 2010 5:50pm
Quoting MichaelLee_8
Yeah, the scaling did cause quite a few problems. That's why I like to use the correlated pairs as a leading indicator.

Hopefully this method will come through for all of us!!

Michael
It looks good so far, on backtesting at least. I'd love to see someone take you up on the 7:00 PM backtest.
  • #73
  • May 16, 2010 7:00pm May 16, 2010 7:00pm
Quoting Dreamliner
It looks good so far, on backtesting at least. I'd love to see someone take you up on the 7:00 PM backtest.
Busy taking myself up on that right now!
  • #74
  • May 16, 2010 7:31pm May 16, 2010 7:31pm
Quoting MichaelLee_8
Busy taking myself up on that right now!
Great! Maybe some helpers will come along too.
  • #75
  • May 16, 2010 10:38pm May 16, 2010 10:38pm
Thank you for sharing your system. I have been interested in the GPYJPY pair as well as the EURJPY. I'd like to ask some questions about it:

Have you considered measuring the volatility as a way of updating your SL and TP, maybe using ATR? In more volatile days/weeks the SL could be hit easier and the same trade could aim for more profit as well.
Also, did you consider alternative exits like scaling out of your position? For example, taking a portion of the order at 100 pips and the rest at 150? I wonder if it would work out.

Cheers,

TF
  • #76
  • May 17, 2010 7:17am May 17, 2010 7:17am
Michael,

For what it's worth, let me tell you the future of this thread. Because you have asked for input (admirable) and have placed no rules around the kind of input, you will have everybody and their brother giving you a thousand different indicators as ways to enter, manage or exit. Your thread will become entirely bogged down in indicators. I have seen this over and over.

People will come here and say "what about this?" or "what about that?" And nobody will have done any backtesting on it, they will just add their favorite indicator into this system you have developed.

My suggestion to you would be to request that people not simply say "what about adding..." but rather that they actually do some backtesting and provide their results. You have provided your results in a nice Excel file, they would simply need to show the difference in results using their favorite indicator.

This way your thread will not become bogged down with a thousand "what ifs".

It's your call, of course, I am just telling you what will happen to your thread if you don't require people to do any work in backtesting before presenting their favorite indicators/methods.
  • #77
  • May 17, 2010 7:17am May 17, 2010 7:17am
Quoting Trilonfelis
Thank you for sharing your system. I have been interested in the GPYJPY pair as well as the EURJPY. I'd like to ask some questions about it:

Have you considered measuring the volatility as a way of updating your SL and TP, maybe using ATR? In more volatile days/weeks the SL could be hit easier and the same trade could aim for more profit as well.
Also, did you consider alternative exits like scaling out of your position? For example, taking a portion of the order at 100 pips and the rest at 150? I wonder if it would work out.

Cheers,

TF
Thanks for taking the time to give the system a try. Let me know how EURJPY works out. I haven't had the chance to test it.

Yes, I have considered the topics in your questions. The ATR is something that we can probably add to our forward testing in the future. In my opinion it is pointless to use it during back testing.

I'm not against anyone scaling out of a position. However, I tried to optimize the sl/tp as much as possible and the best settings I found were 100sl and 125tp. I also tried 50sl/50tp 50/75 50/100 100/100 100/150.

Anyway, I'm just going to try and keep things simple until we get a solid base of traders who understand and are trading this system. But feel free to tweek things as you see fit and let us all know how it goes.

Michael
  • #78
  • May 17, 2010 7:20am May 17, 2010 7:20am
Quoting Dreamliner
Michael,

For what it's worth, let me tell you the future of this thread. Because you have asked for input (admirable) and have placed no rules around the kind of input, you will have everybody and their brother giving you a thousand different indicators as ways to enter, manage or exit. Your thread will become entirely bogged down in indicators. I have seen this over and over.

People will come here and say "what about this?" or "what about that?" And nobody will have done any backtesting on it, they will just add their favorite indicator into...
Very excellent and valid point. I'll try to add some language to the first post to make that clear. Thanks for the insight!!

Michael
  • #79
  • May 17, 2010 7:43am May 17, 2010 7:43am
Good morning traders!! I have attached an updated spread sheet for everyone to look at. During the craziness that is back testing I make a small mistake on the first 4 months. I have adjusted the numbers and the total pip count is down about 350 pips.

Transparency is key and I will give additional updates if I find any more mistakes. Once again, thanks for joining the thread and I hope this system serves you well.

Michael
Attached File(s)
File Type: xls GBPJPY Daily Trend.xls   23 KB | 385 downloads
  • #80
  • May 17, 2010 7:53am May 17, 2010 7:53am
Traders, please go back and read the first post. Thank you for cooperating!!

Michael
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