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Technical Analysis Fallacy

  • #15,341
  • Edited 7:30am May 14, 2010 7:16am | Edited 7:30am
Quoting imjscn
No news from Germany, but on the eur drop, French President did threaten that they'd pull France out of euro if other EU countries did not help rescue Greece.
"the first step to victory is to separate the enemy from his allies"
"interesting time"
  • #15,342
  • May 14, 2010 8:16am May 14, 2010 8:16am
Regarding time windows, I don't believe anything is fixed. A time window (I'd say) is when to expect the next wave, which can be anything although 3 or 7 bars are naturally significant numbers.

Regarding laws of vibration. In its basic form, each wave has its natural vibration and when we focus our mind and connect to that vibration, we can be one with the market. This will sharpen our feel, however I'm wondering whether it can be used in other ways. I suspect this is the key to Tunnel Thru the Air. Looks like I'll have to do more research on this.
  • #15,343
  • Edited 8:51am May 14, 2010 8:33am | Edited 8:51am
Quoting auxesis
Textor,
...................
To summarize, I think Gann when mentioning the law of vibration, is referring to the ability to calculate or better feel/measure the current markets pulse or rhythm... which would be a dynamic measure of the market's "now" not a static measure that would try to force the market into a predetermined math.
...................
regards
Hello Auxesis,

Thank you for your time to explaining what you have in mind.
I think I understand what you mean.

Unfortunately, I think I will not be useful in go deeper in this issue.
You know, English is not my first language, very often there are concepts
of FTI that I do not understand entirely.
BTW you are a great "FTI translator".

Actually, my thoughts are more aimed to understanding
and imagine an aspect (for me) more important, which is the
structure, function and activity of th FX
market itself, because I am (all of us here, I think) an outsider.

On the other hand, I try not to rationalize my "dancing" so much,
I do not deny the usefulness of this may have for other people,
but has little to me.

And here's what I thought when I read your post:
All your description immediately reminded me of playing tenis. Think about it.
This has already been written many times in this thread, but when
I am operating "I see" the kind of movement, speed of movement,
range of motion, etc. Maybe I've only been "a lucky guy",
but that's how I operate.

And with respect to time, we must not forget that the FX market
also has its schedule, break, lunch, etc.
What I mean, if you have a violent movement at 9 am in London,
it does not have the same meaning that the same kind of movement
at 12 am of NY. It is a basic thing, but we must not forget it.

Anyway, have a nice weeend.

Rgs,

Textor
  • #15,344
  • May 14, 2010 9:50am May 14, 2010 9:50am
Quoting Zoran
Regarding time windows, I don't believe anything is fixed....
Hi Zoran
I once was using this, so-called mathematic tunnel.Why I not use?
"exception always proves the rule" and the exception is the Law.

It is an old picture.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: mathematic.JPG Size: 195 KB
  • #15,345
  • May 14, 2010 10:18am May 14, 2010 10:18am
Quoting Gro
Hi Zoran
I once was using this, so-called mathematic tunnel.Why I not use?
"exception always proves the rule" and the exception is the Law.

It is an old picture.
It seems the mainstream study of Gann is way off the mark.
  • #15,346
  • Edited 11:05am May 14, 2010 10:52am | Edited 11:05am
Quoting Zoran
It seems the mainstream study of Gann is way off the mark.
I am trying to explain why Gann went to sell Astro Tips.

PS Remember the divestiture package bank tier 1 bank tier 2, etc.?FTI wrote "this is approximately 20 min. intervals.
  • #15,347
  • May 14, 2010 11:33am May 14, 2010 11:33am
Quoting Gro
I am trying to explain why Gann went to sell Astro Tips.

PS Remember the divestiture package bank tier 1 bank tier 2, etc.?FTI wrote "this is approximately 20 min. intervals.
So Gann rocked for a while, and when he stopped rocking he tried to live off esoteric math gimmicks - fti said he's a brilliant mathematician, hm.... brilliant because he has unlocked the secret of market vibrations through math, or brilliant because of his fanciful astro-geometrical smoke screens?

Gann is not alone, others have the same idea - sell manuals / formulas to teach trading in the zone, getting in sync, flowing with the market etc. The only ones who benefit are the sellers.

Lol, we should just read this thread, and it's free

Regards,
Baifu
  • #15,348
  • May 14, 2010 11:55am May 14, 2010 11:55am
Quoting Gro
I am trying to explain why Gann went to sell Astro Tips.

PS Remember the divestiture package bank tier 1 bank tier 2, etc.?FTI wrote "this is approximately 20 min. intervals.
close enough. I've read a research paper stating that it last just a little more than 30 mins. Also remember earlier points made by jest and aux about 7 five minute bars which is 35 mins.

Since you mentioned tier 1 banks and so on, the other factor equally important and is barely discussed is the structure, the topic is quickly forgotten in he later pages of this thread. Too bad....
  • #15,349
  • Edited 12:31pm May 14, 2010 11:58am | Edited 12:31pm
From some law of vibration site quoting GANN...

"In Gann's Law Of Vibration interview he states, "Science teaches that an original
impulse of any kind finally resolves itself into periodic or rhythmical motion, also just as
the pendulum returns again in its swing, just as the moon returns in its orbit, just as the
advancing year ever brings the roses of spring, so do the properties of the elements
periodically reoccur as the weight of the atoms rises. From my extensive investigations,
studies and applied tests, I find that not only do the various Stocks vibrate, but that the
driving forces controlling the Stocks are also in a state of vibration."

---
Anyone with an inkling of non-linear dynamical theory knows that impulses can resolve into periodic/aperiodic/stable/unstable cycles, decay to zero, or settle to any stable constant limits; they call these basins of attraction. Scientists would not claim that any impulse resolves into cycles. This is the problem with some of these astrological goat entrail, type abusers of math. They loosely borrow terminology from actual math and science (to sound credible), and suit definitions to meet their needs; which appeals to novices. Fractals (mandelbrot sense), Hurst waves (Fourier Series), all fall into this category of nonsense. Of course stocks vibrate (oscillate), they move up and down; and the driving forces also are whimsical in such a manner.

I'm surprised at the gamut of thinking here. There are some really sharp posters (I was attracted to the codebreaker thread)... and well...
  • #15,350
  • May 14, 2010 12:02pm May 14, 2010 12:02pm
Quoting Baifu
So Gann rocked for a while, and when he stopped rocking he tried to live off esoteric math gimmicks - fti said he's a brilliant mathematician, hm.... brilliant because he has unlocked the secret of market vibrations through math, or brilliant because of his fanciful astro-geometrical smoke screens?

Gann is not alone, others have the same idea - sell manuals / formulas to teach trading in the zone, getting in sync, flowing with the market etc. The only ones who benefit are the sellers.

Lol, we should just read this thread, and it's free ...
Compute cycles are possible with absolute precision but there is always exist an exception.I wrote about Cycles and Exception.
  • #15,351
  • May 14, 2010 12:24pm May 14, 2010 12:24pm
Quoting aiyahmarklah
close enough. I've read a research paper stating that it last just a little more than 30 mins. Also remember earlier points made by jest and aux about 7 five minute bars which is 35 mins.

Since you mentioned tier 1 banks and so on, the other factor equally important and is barely discussed is the structure, the topic is quickly forgotten in he later pages of this thread. Too bad....
... it is written, hypothetically, if one person in the world.

PS I wrote about 5.5minutes and 6.9 on average 3.5.Decimal point is crucial if you understand.
  • #15,352
  • May 14, 2010 12:40pm May 14, 2010 12:40pm
Quoting Gro
... it is written, hypothetically, if one person in the world.

PS I wrote about 5.5minutes and 6.9 on average 3.5.Decimal point is crucial if you understand.
No I don't understand, care to explain ?
  • #15,353
  • May 14, 2010 12:48pm May 14, 2010 12:48pm
Quoting aiyahmarklah
No I don't understand, care to explain ?
You want a scientific study, or you can use the numbers in the abstract?
  • #15,354
  • May 14, 2010 12:54pm May 14, 2010 12:54pm
don't have to go deep explaining. Just say as you deem fit, not smart enough to go deep anyway.
  • #15,355
  • May 14, 2010 1:09pm May 14, 2010 1:09pm
Quoting aiyahmarklah
don't have to go deep explaining. Just say as you deem fit, not smart enough to go deep anyway.
I used the computing cycles (computation of time civilizations that no longer exist, and not the Gregorian and Julian calculations) and came to this count. FTI provides the same ("my" decimal point indicates a change).

You can try the abstraction of numbers 1,13,7,9,4
  • #15,356
  • May 14, 2010 1:43pm May 14, 2010 1:43pm
Quoting Gro
I used the computing cycles (computation of time civilizations that no longer exist, and not the Gregorian and Julian calculations) and came to this count. FTI provides the same ("my" decimal point indicates a change).

You can try the abstraction of numbers 1,13,7,9,4
Thanks for pointing out, that sounds like pretty complex maths to me.

Have a good weekend Gro.
  • #15,357
  • May 14, 2010 1:47pm May 14, 2010 1:47pm
Quoting aiyahmarklah
Thanks for pointing out, that sounds like pretty complex maths to me.

Have a good weekend Gro.
Have a good weekend aiyahmarklah and all
  • #15,358
  • May 14, 2010 2:54pm May 14, 2010 2:54pm
The premise that markets unfold in recognisable or predictable patterns contradicts the efficient market hypothesis, which says that prices cannot be predicted from market data such as moving averages, volume indicators etc... By this reasoning, if successful market forecasts were possible, investors would buy/sell when The Holy Grail method predicted a price increase/decrease, to the point that prices would rise/fall immediately, thus destroying the profitability and predictive power of the method. In efficient markets, knowledge of the Holy Grail principle among investors would lead to the disappearance of the very patterns they tried to anticipate, rendering the method, and all forms of technical analysis, useless.
  • #15,359
  • May 14, 2010 3:00pm May 14, 2010 3:00pm
Quoting fti
Madman or the truth???

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f0oLJNfs_rM
... try to decrypt your junk DNA (97% DNA) there is an answer.DNA is create like the "rhytm words" (similar to computer language)
Human DNA is written very casually but well-modifiable
  • #15,360
  • May 14, 2010 3:12pm May 14, 2010 3:12pm
Quoting rooicol
The premise that markets unfold in recognisable or predictable patterns contradicts the efficient market hypothesis, which says that prices cannot be predicted from market data such as moving averages, volume indicators etc... By this reasoning, if successful market forecasts were possible, investors would buy/sell when The Holy Grail method predicted a price increase/decrease, to the point that prices would rise/fall immediately, thus destroying the profitability and predictive power of the method. In efficient markets, knowledge of the Holy Grail...
EMH is slowly being debunked, even amongst academics; a few hedge funds have capitalized on this for some time. That, however, does not give any credence to GANN beliefs. Probability and Statistics are a better path to focus your efforts.
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