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Weekly COT report Analysis + Trade Ideas

  • #2,741
  • May 12, 2010 10:16am May 12, 2010 10:16am
I'm waiting for Hr candle close above daily pivot to take long at E/U
  • #2,742
  • May 12, 2010 10:18am May 12, 2010 10:18am
Long E/A has been taken at 1.4160 (TFM) SL=1.4075
  • #2,743
  • May 12, 2010 10:27am May 12, 2010 10:27am
Long E/Chf has been taken at 1.4020 SL=1.3980 , will post the chart later.
  • #2,744
  • May 12, 2010 5:29pm May 12, 2010 5:29pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting shahab8b
short U/Chf has been taken at 1.1075 SL=1.113 (TFM)

Hey there Shahab..
I had a short U/CHF as well from 1.01101. My stop was a bit wider @ 1.11600
Lookin at my charts now I see that trade closed at SL !?!
The high on my charts was only 1.11225. (and that was already a spike up that my othe broker didn't even have)
Can only be some error in the price-feed (ask-price?!) as I don't see a spike up to that level.

Anyone else noticed such a thing as well?

Gonna contact my broker I think.
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"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #2,745
  • May 12, 2010 5:59pm May 12, 2010 5:59pm
Quoting Tuner
I had a short U/CHF as well from 1.01101. My stop was a bit wider @ 1.11600
Lookin at my charts now I see that trade closed at SL !?!
The high on my charts was only 1.11225. (and that was already a spike up that my othe broker didn't even have)

Gonna contact my broker I think.
Ewwww, Oanda, FXCM and Netdania don't show any spike up. You should contact your broker or raise a query on-line (if they do that). When FXCM margin called me with that spike in A/U, I just filled out an on-line audit form and everything was fixed up.
Nothing worth having is easy.
  • #2,746
  • May 12, 2010 6:03pm May 12, 2010 6:03pm
Quoting Tuner
Hey there Shahab..
I had a short U/CHF as well from 1.01101. My stop was a bit wider @ 1.11600
Lookin at my charts now I see that trade closed at SL !?!
The high on my charts was only 1.11225. (and that was already a spike up that my othe broker didn't even have)
Can only be some error in the price-feed (ask-price?!) as I don't see a spike up to that level.

Anyone else noticed such a thing as well?

Gonna contact my broker I think.

IBFX also doesn't show up any spike or anything closer to your stop @ 1.1160
I hope your broker gets it sorted out for you
  • #2,747
  • May 12, 2010 6:09pm May 12, 2010 6:09pm
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting Bouzies
IBFX also doesn't show up any spike or anything closer to your stop @ 1.1160
I hope your broker gets it sorted out for you

Thanks for your comments..
I send them the trade to be checked now.
Now lets see what they are going to do with it.

I'll keep you informed!

Tuner
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #2,748
  • May 12, 2010 7:21pm May 12, 2010 7:21pm
lONG AT 1.0901, AND 1.0790
SL;1.0700
TP:1.1011, TBD

Its a trade from daily timeframe. The direction us up and buying on supports and 50 and 62% fibs.
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  • #2,749
  • May 13, 2010 7:01am May 13, 2010 7:01am
  •  Tuner
  • | Joined Nov 2009 | Status: Love it when a plan comes together | 709 Posts
Quoting Tuner
Thanks for your comments..
I send them the trade to be checked now.
Now lets see what they are going to do with it.

I'll keep you informed!

Tuner
well.. I didn't get an answer from them.
But they just re-opened the trade when I was not around.
The initial Stop-Loss was now hit for real. So ending up in my loss as well now.

I had a trailing stop on the original trade that would have safed me at BE at least. Now as they just re-opened it there was no more trailing stop --> SL
Still a bit pissed with that though...
"Blue Horseshoe loves Anacott Steel!"
  • #2,750
  • May 13, 2010 8:37am May 13, 2010 8:37am
Quoting Tuner
well.. I didn't get an answer from them.
But they just re-opened the trade when I was not around.
The initial Stop-Loss was now hit for real. So ending up in my loss as well now.

I had a trailing stop on the original trade that would have safed me at BE at least. Now as they just re-opened it there was no more trailing stop --> SL
Still a bit pissed with that though...

Hi Tuner, that's a weird story. I think you should call them or use the live chat on the website. I used the live chat before and they were helpful. In that particular trade (U/Chf) ,I closed the trade with 25 pips loss so I don't know if I had kept it open what would have been the result. Anyways, try to contact them.
  • #2,751
  • May 13, 2010 8:42am May 13, 2010 8:42am
I took short at e-mini S&P500 futures at 1170
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  • #2,752
  • May 13, 2010 8:45am May 13, 2010 8:45am
Short at DAX futures at 6250
  • #2,753
  • May 13, 2010 9:09am May 13, 2010 9:09am
Quoting shahab8b
I'm going to explain another indicator based techniques for those who don't have the experience in charting.


I call it " Buy dip, Sell High based on RSI extreme"

The concept: trade in the direction of the larger trend, buying into an uptrend and selling into a downtrend.

1-Look at daily chart and RSI (14) indicator, if RSI>50 your set up is taking Long if RSI<50 your set up is Short.

2-Look at Hr chart, when RSI<30 in Long set up ,take long...
Another example of "Buy dip,Sell high based on RSI extreme" method.
For explanation look at #2715

G/U:
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  • #2,754
  • May 13, 2010 9:30am May 13, 2010 9:30am
Quoting shahab8b
Another example of "Buy dip,Sell high based on RSI extreme" method.
For explanation look at #2715

G/U:
Shahab,

I noticed that you used RSI(10) for this example but RSI(14) for the initial description of the strategy. What do you recommend we use? I noticed that if we use RSI(14) for this last example, level 70 is not touched on the charts.

Thank you.
  • #2,755
  • May 13, 2010 9:30am May 13, 2010 9:30am
Short e-mini NASDAQ 100 futures at 1978
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  • #2,756
  • May 13, 2010 9:38am May 13, 2010 9:38am
Quoting Bouzies
Shahab,

I noticed that you used RSI(10) for this example but RSI(14) for the initial description of the strategy. What do you recommend we use? I noticed that if we use RSI(14) for this last example, level 70 is not touched on the charts.

Thank you.

That's right, I'm still working on the best combination. For now stick to RSI(14), and note that when there is a classic div, you actually may not get the extreme level while you have a new high/low. Moreover, if you want to be creative and use the concept in a lower TF you can use "4H as Set Up TF" and "15min as signal TF".
  • #2,757
  • May 13, 2010 9:50am May 13, 2010 9:50am
Quoting shahab8b
That's right, I'm still working on the best combination. For now stick to RSI(14), and note that when there is a classic div, you actually may not get the extreme level while you have a new high/low. Moreover, if you want to be creative and use the concept in a lower TF you can use "4H as Set Up TF" and "15min as signal TF".
Thanks for clearing things up and sharing your strategy. I am on the lookout for potential opportunities using this strategy and will document any results that I get.
  • #2,758
  • May 13, 2010 9:54am May 13, 2010 9:54am
Quoting Bouzies
Shahab,

I noticed that you used RSI(10) for this example but RSI(14) for the initial description of the strategy. What do you recommend we use? I noticed that if we use RSI(14) for this last example, level 70 is not touched on the charts.

Thank you.
Take a look at EURAUD here. It's a classic sell high into a downtrend.Note sometime due to classic div you don't get RSI>70 but if you have some basic knowledge of div you wont miss them.
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  • #2,759
  • May 13, 2010 10:08am May 13, 2010 10:08am
Quoting shahab8b
Take a look at EURAUD here. It's a classic sell high into a downtrend.Note sometime due to classic div you don't get RSI>70 but if you have some basic knowledge of div you wont miss them.
Thank you for the great example. It is now very clear.

How about exit? Do you have any suggestion based on your experience on what strategy to use for closing a trade. I am having trouble picking good exits. Some times I exit way to early and some times I have great profits but let the trade open expecting to capture more gains but at the end the gains end up eroding.

Thank you.
  • #2,760
  • May 13, 2010 11:47am May 13, 2010 11:47am
Quoting shahab8b
Another example of "Buy dip,Sell high based on RSI extreme" method.
For explanation look at #2715

G/U:
nice simple mtf system - I recommend starting a new thread dedicated to it. needs a new name though
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